A reader emailed me last week asking whether the tariff news is a reason to slow down their buying. They're not new — they've been holding a Brickfolio worth about $40K for six years, mostly UCS Star Wars and modulars. Their actual question wasn't "what are tariffs" — they know. It was: "is this the moment my thesis breaks?"
That's the only question that matters. Here's how I'm answering it for my own collection, and what I'm telling people who ask.
The news, in two minutes
I'll be brief — most of you have read about this already, and the legal situation has moved every few months.
- The IEEPA-based "reciprocal" tariffs (20% on EU goods, 25% on Mexican, higher on China) were imposed in spring 2025.
- The Supreme Court ruled in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump on February 20, 2026 that IEEPA does not authorize the president to set tariffs. (opinion)
- Within days, the administration shifted to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 — a temporary 10% duty that, by statute, expires automatically after 150 days. That clock runs out July 24, 2026 unless Congress votes to extend. (Congress.gov CRS R48435)
- The Court of International Trade has subsequently ruled Section 122 also unlawful; the appeal is pending.
That's the framework. Onto the part that actually matters for your collection.
What this changes about LEGO investing
The headline answer is: less than the news cycle suggests, but more than zero, and not in the directions you'd expect.
Let me walk through the four real mechanisms tariffs touch a LEGO investor's life, and which of them I'm actually worried about.
1. New-set MSRPs are creeping up — and that lifts your floor
This is the most overlooked effect. Industry analysts have been forecasting 7–15% retail price increases (steeper on small sets, gentler on large ones). LEGO has been strategically cautious about visible MSRP hikes — they'd rather absorb cost, quietly remove thousands of elements from Pick a Brick, and accelerate domestic manufacturing — than risk consumer backlash.
But over a two-year window, the creep is real. Compare a 2024 small-Star-Wars set to its 2026 equivalent and the price-per-piece has climbed several percent.
Why this is bullish for existing inventory: every dollar added to new-set MSRP raises the ceiling of what someone will pay for a retired equivalent. If you've held a UCS Star Wars set or a modular for years, the secondary-market floor under your position got a bit higher. Not dramatically. Meaningfully.
2. Domestic clearance arbitrage is unaffected — possibly more attractive
Walmart, Target, B&N, and Kohl's already absorbed any wholesale cost change before the set hit their shelves. When you buy a $15 set off a clearance endcap, the tariff has nothing to do with your cost basis.
The pool of clearance deals may actually be bigger right now, because:
- Fewer European-wholesale resellers are dumping pallets into the US (tighter margins killed the play at small scale).
- Retailers are working through pre-tariff inventory at thinner margins to clear shelves.
- Sets that were already on the edge of retirement are getting pushed into clearance faster as importers slow re-orders.
If your operating model is "drive to three Walmarts on Saturday morning," this period is good for you.
3. The European wholesale arbitrage play is meaningfully worse
If your model was "buy from European authorized wholesalers, ship a 40-foot container, net 35–50% margin" — that math tightened. The 10% Section 122 surcharge plus higher ocean freight cut the net advantage roughly in half. Not dead. Worse.
I'm not a wholesale importer and most readers aren't either. But if you've been buying from grey-market import resellers on eBay, expect their pricing to climb to recover margin. Sets that previously had "weird cheap" listings probably don't anymore.
4. The IEEPA refund opportunity is real
This is the part everyone underweights. If you imported anything between March 2025 and February 2026 and paid IEEPA duties, those duties were collected without legal authority. CBP is building a refund system. If you sourced from outside the US during that window — bigger players, you know who you are — talk to your customs broker. The refund window won't stay open forever.
What I'm doing with my own buying
This is the part I'd want from someone else, so I'll be direct about it.
I'm not selling anything. The thesis on retired UCS / modular / Architecture appreciation hasn't broken. If anything, the MSRP creep on new sets quietly props up my existing floor.
I'm buying retiring sets a little more aggressively than I would have been. Specifically, sets that show EOL signals across multiple retailers — the pattern where LEGO.com goes out of stock first, then Target, then Walmart, and one stragglier (often Barnes & Noble or Kohl's) has the last retail stock. That moment is the cheapest you'll ever buy that set again, full stop. Use the Retirement Predictor to find them.
I'm tightening my buying discipline on new releases. A $349 set in 2026 needs to clear a higher net-profit bar than a $299 set did in 2023 — replacement cost is higher if I need to restock. The ROI Calculator is set up exactly for this comparison. Plug in any retail set, any purchase price, real fee-net math — including real shipping rates from your ZIP — and you'll see whether the spread is enough.
I'm watching July 24. If Section 122 expires cleanly and Congress doesn't act, the 10% surcharge disappears overnight. That changes the math for European-import resellers and probably softens retail price pressure within a few months. If the CIT appeal kills Section 122 before then, same outcome sooner.
A worked example, with real numbers
Consider set 75192 Millennium Falcon (UCS). Released in 2018 at $849.99 MSRP. Sealed-comp median on eBay sits around $675 as of the most recent month we have data.
If you'd bought a sealed copy at $550 a year ago (when scattered Amazon deals appeared on it):
- Sealed sale at $675 today
- eBay final value fee (13.25%): −$89.44
- Payment processing (2.9% + $0.30): −$19.88
- Realistic shipping for a 7,500-piece UCS box (31 lbs, oversize): ~$50–60 depending on zone
- Net: about $475 after fees
- Profit: −$75. About −14% ROI.
A year ago, the same math (slightly lower fees, slightly lower shipping, comp around $700–725) looked breakeven to mildly positive. The market hasn't priced in the tariff-driven MSRP creep on equivalents like the 75375 Falcon Starship Collection ($85 MSRP, 921 pieces) or the 75426 SMART Play Falcon ($100 MSRP, 885 pieces) — yet. That gap is the opportunity for patient holders.
This is the math the ROI Calculator does for any set in seconds. The fee structure is the part that surprises new resellers; the shipping cost is the part that bites people who skip it. Run any open position you have through it.
What I'd watch over the next six months
- July 24, 2026 — Section 122 expiration. If it ends and isn't replaced, watch retailer pricing soften through Q4.
- Court of International Trade appeal on Section 122. If the appeals court upholds the CIT's invalidation, refunds extend to the Section 122 period as well.
- LEGO's pricing decisions on the 2026 H2 set rotation. They've been absorbing rather than passing through. At some point that breaks. Watch fall releases for visible hikes — it'll signal where their patience ran out.
- The Q4 retirement wave. A lot of 2023 / early-2024 sets are at the natural end of their lifecycle. Tariffs sped up some retirement decisions because importing replacement inventory got more expensive. Patience here pays.
Bottom line for a LEGO investor
Tariffs raised the floor on LEGO reselling without breaking the thesis. Specifically:
- If you hold retired sets — your position got slightly more valuable. Hold.
- If you buy domestic clearance — your edge is intact or slightly better. Keep hunting.
- If you time retirements — this period rewards you more than usual. Be ready to move when the scorecard tells you.
- If you import wholesale — the margins tightened materially. Verify your IEEPA refund eligibility.
- If you race to the bottom on Amazon — you've got more headwind. Tighten your floor.
Tariffs are a real input to the math. They're not a thesis-killer. The fundamentals — the data, the retirement signal, the fee-net math — still tell the truth. Use them.
This article reflects one experienced collector's reading of public information and is not financial, legal, or tax advice. Trade policy moves quickly. Consult a licensed customs broker before making importing decisions, and an accountant before relying on any refund.
