BLOCKS: Article 16:
10188 Death Star...Investment Supergiant or Black Hole?
10188 Death Star. "Live" Star. STAR WARS "Dollhouse." Iconic LEGO set. The 10188 Death Star has been called many names over the past eight years. Since June of 2008, the 10188 Death Star was available at retail...the longest production run ever for a traditional LEGO set. The 10188 Death Star has been at the forefront of the LEGO investment phenomena since its release and its long-running production has given many LEGO investors and collectors agita. But it has officially been retired...finally...and many LEGO investors and collectors are contemplating the future investment potential of the 10188 Death Star.
The novice LEGO investor would say that the 10188 will be an investment juggernaut. Just taking a look at previous supersized STAR WARS sets that retired in the past decade or so, one could expect exceptional returns. Let's take a look at some of these sets:
A quick analysis of the data would seem to indicate a rosy outlook for the 10188 Death Star. The 10221 Ultimate Collector Series Super Star Destroyer, another three thousand piece...four hundred dollar set, retired exactly two years ago as of this writing and has appreciated well over 100% in the United States and close to 100% in the United Kingdom. The other supersized STAR WARS LEGO sets are more examples of strong growth and future potential for the 10188 Death Star. The current vibe among most LEGO collectors and investors is that large and in charge STAR WARS LEGO sets should appreciate well after retirement. If that's true, then the 10188 Death Star, should perform well over the next several years. Well, there could be one caveat...or fly in the proverbial ointment, as they like to say, to exceptional future appreciation for the 10188 Death Star...The 75159 Death Star.
There has always been a fear among us paranoid LEGO collectors and investors that a remake of the iconic 10188 Death Star was possible. We crossed our fingers and thought we would never see another Death Star. LIttle did we know, that along with all the buzz from the new STAR WARS movie(s) which could help reinvigorate the stale STAR WARS theme, that Disney would release "retro" STAR WARS movies that were based on the Original Trilogy characters and vehicles. While this is a great idea for STAR WARS fans, the collectors among us are cringing. Why? Remakes. Remakes are a major reason why LEGO sets plateau or decrease in value. When new and improved sets are released based on older designs, the older set values suffer...for the most part. All of us LEGO collectors and investors were hoping there would never be another Death Star in a future STAR WARS movie and that the 10188 Death Star would be the last of its kind. Boy, we were wrong.
Low and behold...The 75159 Death Star. Scheduled to be released late in 2016 or early 2017 in conjunction with STAR WARS: Episode VIII: Rogue One, the 75159 Death Star could be a 10188 "killer," or if the new design is quite dissimilar, help stimulate interest in the 10188 once again. The 10143 Ultimate Collector Series Death Star II and the 10188 Death Star were quite different from one another, and by looking at the current values of the 10143, you can see multiple "similar" iconic sets can complement one another. It is unknown at this writing what the exact makeup of the 75159 will be. Will it be a play set like the 10188? A display set like the 10143? A combination of the two? Will it be larger? Smaller? More detailed? Less detailed? Have minifigures? New characters? The same characters? I'm assuming it will be a large playset, with dozens of miniifgures, probably based on the Rogue One movie. Darth Vader probably will be included, as with some of the droids. I doubt many of the other main characters like Luke Skywalker or Han Solo will be reissued, but those characters equate to dollars and they might appear in the new set. As stated earlier, it most likely will be a playset, but it would be cool if the exterior of the new Death Star would be similar to the 10143, basically an outer cosmetic shell. It is my hope that it will be different enough to stand on its own merit and not have to copy the best parts of the 10143 and 10188.
Overall, given time, it is my opinion that the 10188 Death Star will do just fine on the LEGO secondary markets. It is one of the largest sets ever produced...an all-time iconic LEGO set. Although it was a very popular set at retail, this popularity will also translate to future generations. This set will always have fans, regardless of the design and makeup of the new 75159 Death Star. There are many well-to-do "completists" out there in the LEGO collecting and investing world that would want to have each and every major LEGO set ever produced, especially sets from the STAR WARS theme. In my view, there will be no more impressive display than to line up three 3000+ piece LEGO Death Stars up on a shelf or cabinet. While the 10188 might never hit 10179 Millennium Falcon levels, it could become one of the most valuable LEGO sets on the secondary market. I'm keeping my fingers crossed...
