Holiday Season...or Buying Season?
I often use the LEGO fan forums for inspiration for article topics and the like. I read the BrickPicker and Brickset forums (and other…) every day to see what is hot and what is not in the world of LEGO. I try to focus on LEGO items that would be considered collectible and worthwhile investments. As I write this article, it is the first week of December, the heart of the Christmas buying season. The forums are abuzz with posts about LEGO discounts and deals from major retailers like Amazon, LEGO Shop @ Home, Target, Walmart and many others. Discounts of 30-40% or more are not uncommon. Is this the best time to buy a LEGO set, and what "season" of the year should a LEGO collector, investor or reseller buy a LEGO set to get the most for their money?
A little over a year ago I wrote an article about Seasonal LEGO sets for BLOCKS Magazine. I wrote about their popularity and success as a collectible and LEGO investment. Seasonal sets would include any sort of set sold around a holiday or given away as promotional items. Easter, Valentine's Day, Thanksgiving and especially Christmas, all have specialized LEGO sets designed after their traditions and characters and are some of the most creative of all LEGO sets in my opinion. Even "seasons" of the year have LEGO sets designed after them. The Winter Village subtheme is such an example. But this discussion won't focus directly on Seasonal LEGO sets per se. What we focus on for this article is the best time, or season, of the year to buy LEGO sets to get the best bang for your LEGO buck.
The best time of year to buy LEGO sets is the November through December time... period. This time period nicely coincides with the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. Included in this time period are the uber shopping days of Black Friday and Cyber Monday and all of the wonderful deals and discounts that go along with those days. Better yet, LEGO Shop @ Home gives away free promotional items during the Black Friday and early December time frame when you hit certain purchase totals. This year, for example, LEGO Shop @ Home gave away a unique 301-piece 40292 Holiday Gift Box during the Black Friday sales period and the 251-piece 40293 Christmas Carousel set during the first week of December. If these sets appreciate in a similar manner to previous LEGO promotional sets, then it will indeed be a Merry Christmas. For example, the 40139 Gingerbread House given away in 2015 currently sells for around $100.00. Other freebies have also appreciated well...if you care to save them as collectibles and not build them that is.
But it's not only about the sales and promotional items during this time of year. While The LEGO Group retires LEGO sets at all times of year, the highest percentage of LEGO sets get retired in the November through December time frame. Many of these retiring sets also get discounted for substantial savings of 20% to 40% or more. Soon after the new year, these same sets sell out on all major primary retailers and begin to appreciate on secondary market sites. Discounted LEGO sets that get retired soon after purchase makes for a profitable combination in a short period of time. Even if you have zero interest in reselling LEGO sets for a profit, it is still a great time to buy LEGO sets. Large box retailers like Walmart sell large sets for extremely low prices. Several years ago, Walmart sold the 1600-piece 10664 XXL Creative Tower and 1500-piece 10697 XXL Classic Box for around $30.00 apiece, about 50% off their Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price. Today, both large boxes are selling for over $150.00 on Amazon and similar secondary market sites. These sets are not discounted in such a manner at any other time of the year except for Black Friday.
In today's world of LEGO investing, collecting and reselling, it's not always the large and iconic sets that will appreciate well or be the best collectible. When a set is hoarded heavily, it no longer becomes rare. Many of today's successful resellers and investors are moving towards smaller and more affordable sets to invest in and collect. The mass discounts on retiring sets around the late Fall/early Winter time frame are mostly on small to mid-sized LEGO sets from more generic themes like CITY and Creator, but those "plain Jane" themes have turned out to be some of the best collectible LEGO sets of the past few years. It's no longer the Ultimate Collector Series or Modular theme that brings back large returns. It is these smaller generic sets that are easier to acquire, sell, package and ship that are the best investments. What's better yet is the major retailers are discounting these sets heavily in November and December, and LEGO is retiring them in January. This is a potent combination and the best time to invest. I am not saying there are no opportunities other times of the year, but the vast majority of LEGO buying should be done when the first holiday displays go out in stores. Nice discounts can also be found right after the holidays when returns come in and extra inventory has to be cleared out for the new year.
The one negative that could occur when buying at this time of year is a LEGO set being sold out before you get a chance to buy it. Sometimes they disappear quite quickly from major retailer shelves and you will then have to pay secondary market prices to acquire one. While it might be too late this year to take advantage of the holiday sales, this will give you time to plan accordingly for next Christmas. Read the LEGO fan forums for tips and rumors about retiring sets and plan for some major deals around Black Friday and Cyber Monday and later. Also realize there are good deals to be found throughout the year as well. Good luck in your quest for collectible and appreciating LEGO sets in 2019...
