Several months back, I wrote about the Batman theme and how it has produced some of the best appreciating LEGO sets of all time. Sets like the 7884 Batman's Buggy: The Escape of Mr. Freeze and the 7888 The Tumbler: The Joker's Ice Surprise have appreciated around 1000% from their Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price. When the DC Comics and Marvel Super Heroes themes were released in 2012, they became an instant hit among many LEGO fans and collectors. The main focus of the DC Comics and Marvel Super Heroes LEGO sets have always been the minifigures. The designs of the DC Comics and Marvel Super Heroes LEGO sets were basic building and vehicle designs with multiple minifigures in each set. It wasn't until the 76023 The Tumbler and the 10937 Batman: Arkham Asylum Breakout that larger and more complex building and vehicle designs were incorporated. Until that time, the various DC Comics and Marvel Super Hero minifigures were the driving forces of the exceptional growth of the DC Comics and Marvel Super Heroes LEGO sets. It is these same minifigures that could be the downfall of the DC Comics and Marvel Super Heroes theme in the near future.
Let's examine the chart below of the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for the major Super Hero themes...Batman, DC and Marvel Comics. NOTE: For those of you unfamiliar with CAGR, it is a formula that is applied to an investment (in our case, a LEGO set or group of sets...theme) to help determine the investment's annual smoothed return. The final percentage that you get upon calculating the compound annual growth rate is a smoothed rate of return that shows the positive or negative growth of your investment over a specified period of time. The CAGR can be used by LEGO investors and collectors to understand what an investment has historically yielded on a yearly basis. Obviously, this formula can't predict what the future yields of a particular investment (LEGO set) will be, but it can be used as a barometer to gauge the investment's future viability within the market. This number can also be used to calculate an investment's average growth rate over several years...
At first glance, it would appear that the DC Comics and Marvel Super Heroes themes had very strong years in 2013 and 2014. The original Batman theme was strong throughout the entire time frame (2011-2015). But what is interesting is that the DC Comics and Marvel Super Heroes themes were on a major decline from their peak in 2013, especially in 2015. The original Batman theme held strong and decreased moderately, but nowhere close to the DC Comics and Marvel Super Heroes themes CAGR values. Now, we have to remember that the Batman theme retired in 2008, so to have such strong growth six or seven years after the end of production is quite amazing. The DC Comics and Marvel Super Heroes themes on the other hand are still being produced, but some have been retired as well. The DC Comics and Marvel Super Heroes themes really tanked in 2015, even with a major set like the 10937 Batman: Arkham Asylum Breakout retiring. You would think these sets would continue to exhibit strong growth, but quite the opposite is happening. What's up?
Well, certainly not the DC Comics and Marvel Super Heroes sets' values. Why? One major reason...counterfeits. Considering the fact that many of the DC Comics and Marvel Super Heroes sets are popular because of their minifigures, it's not hard to figure out that cheap knockoffs will impact the values of parted-out minifigures on LEGO secondary market sites. If the parted-out LEGO minifigures are losing value because of counterfeits, then the LEGO sets they are sold in will lose value as well. Counterfeits are all over the secondary market LEGO sites. The fakes are of higher quality in recent years and they are improving. They are selling for a few dollars instead of a few dozen. More and more people are turning to the cheap and fake versions to buy for Little Timmy. What was once a promising LEGO theme has turned quite average. The older Batman sets really didn't take a huge hit because its sets were more rare, even though the minifigures within them were quite available. The Batman sets retired before LEGO investing exploded in popularity. Today's current DC Comics and Marvel Super Heroes sets are stockpiled in vast numbers, and with their minifigures losing value, they are becoming less enticing to LEGO collectors. Until The LEGO Group wants to address the increasing counterfeiting situation, the values of the DC Comics and Marvel Super Heroes sets will continue to suffer on LEGO secondary market sites. If these counterfeits improve even more, sales of the DC Comics and Marvel Super Heroes sets on retail shelves will decline as well. Super Hero sets are not super anymore...
