Analysis of the Advanced Models Theme
Rumors have been circulating among the LEGO fan forums of an upcoming large Creator/Advanced Models set releasing sometime in 2016. Huw, of the website Brickset.com, has listed the set as the 10253 Big Ben, which is most likely based on the iconic British clock tower at the north end of the Palace of Westminster in London, England. If the information is correct, the 10253 Big Ben would be the second large-scale Advanced Model designed after a British landmark with the 10214 Tower Bridge being the first such LEGO set. This is pretty exciting news in the world of LEGO collecting in that there have been very few large-scale Advanced Models released over the past fifteen years or so. Many of the largest LEGO sets have been based on memorable STAR WARS vehicles or characters, with the Ultimate Collector Series subtheme being the best example of super-sized sets. Now, when I mean a large-scale Advanced Model or Ultimate Collector Series set, I am talking about a LEGO set with at least 2500 pieces, but really closer to 3000 bricks. There are really just a handful of sets that meet this requirement out of the ten thousand or so LEGO sets that have been released over the past fifty years, so when a new one is released, it's a "big" deal. Let's examine the chart of the largest LEGO Advanced Model sets ever released and their current values on LEGO secondary marketplaces...
** Still available at primary retail sources as of 12/1/2015
At first glance, two of the largest Advanced Model sets are still available as of this writing, the 10214 Tower Bridge and the 10234 Sydney Opera House, so their appreciation is very little, none or negative at this point. But the four largest Advanced Models that did retire have appreciated extraordinarily well, both in the United States and United Kingdom. All four of the retired "Big Boys" have grown to around TEN TIMES the Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price, with anywhere from 800-1000% Return on Investment. That is just incredible. Only the 3450 Statue of Liberty has shown slower growth in the United Kingdom, probably because it's not as iconic there as it is in the United States. What's even more intriguing is that much of the growth has occurred over the past few years, well after their original retirement dates. I would imagine that the high MSRPs for these sets made them more "exclusive" in nature in that the higher price points prevented stockpiling of these sets years ago. But now that LEGO collecting has been shown to be a lucrative endeavor, there have been much more interest in the 10214 Tower Bridge and the 10234 Sydney Opera House as collectibles. LEGO fans and collectors will have many, many more of these newer Advanced Model sets in their collection this time around.
So what lies ahead for these large Advanced Model sets. Well, the retired ones like the 10189 Taj Mahal, 10181 Eiffel Tower, 10196 Grand Carousel and the 3450 Statue of Liberty will probably continue to appreciate to stratospheric levels. The only thing that would stop that would be a reissue of one of those sets. The 10196 Grand Carousel might find even more fans with the recent release of the 10244 Fairground Mixer and 10247 Ferris Wheel and the new "amusement park" subtheme. Either the 10214 Tower Bridge and/or 10234 Sydney Opera House could retire around the time of the new 10253 Big Ben release, mainly because LEGO seems to keep only a few large sets available at any one time, and the 10214 Tower Bridge has been around for 5+ years. The 10214 Tower Bridge has been a very popular set from all accounts, and the 10234 Sydney Opera House, not so much so, so we will see how things shake out. I have to wonder if LEGO decided to recreate Big Ben in LEGO bricks because of the popularity of the other British landmark set and figured that it could be a "big" seller for another 5+ years. Regardless, the growth of these later Advanced Models sets will probably be stellar as well, but the excess stockpiling of these sets will probably stunt growth to a degree. As any LEGO fan or collector knows, having a stash of these "Big Boys" sitting around a house or apartment is not only extremely expensive but consumes a tremendous amount of space, two big reasons why many people pass on these sets in the first place. Even displaying these wonderful sets takes up a large area in any office or den. With all that be said, I would recommend buying each and every LEGO set that is larger than 2500 pieces. Your inner LEGO fan will be happy, and your wallet will be as well...
