I'm sure - sure - that I'll miss some that were not widely released, or were only released to people with access to Google Glasses or to those who worship the Macks, but I aim to tackle the majority. After a listing of the polybags released this year, I'd like to take a stab at guesstimating what makes certain bags profitable and certain bags saggy and worthless on the secondary market. Before hunting them all down and doing some research, I had some ideas on what were the hot sellers, but even I had a couple of surprises along the way. Since they are so widely available at different times throughout the year, it may behoove even an experienced LEGO jockey* *to give it a read. Also, instead of flaming me in the comments section if I missed a polybag, let me know and I'll see about editing the post to include it. Even my daughter's books teach that everybody poops...er, makes mistakes.
NOTE Promotional items like ComicCon figures, Brickmaster sets, monthly LEGO builds and such have not been included. While doing some research, if it didn't look like a somewhat widely available polybag I skipped it, which was necessary because I still have what feels like a gazillion polybags to research. I also am sure I read on Brickset about a couple of polybags that were available that I can't find in the Brickpicker database, one being a toy soldier that was included in a magazine (Danish magazine?) but disregarded it because, c'mon, what does Denmark have to do with LEGO? (Yes, that's a joke) .
You can change the table settings easily to see all at once, if you'd prefer. The default is set to ten polys per page, I think.
Set Name & Number Set Information Brickpicker Average as of the Nov. 2013 update Ebay.com sold listings highlights from Jan 2014
30220 Fire Speedboat
40 pieces 1 minifig US: TRU $5.39 BP $6.99-$8.99
30221 Fire Car
37 pieces 1 minifig US: Target $6.86 $5.99-$7.99
30222 Police Helicopter
33 pieces 1 minifig LEGO S&H Walmart $6.59 $3.99-$7.99
30224 Ride-on Lawn Mower
42 pieces 1 minifig UK: WHS US: TRU N/A $4.99-$8.99
30225 Coast Guard Seaplane
37 pieces 1 minifig UK: WHS US: TRU $7.40 $4.25-$8.99
30183 Little Car
45 pieces UK: Daily Mail N/A $1.97-$7.99
30184 Little Helicopter
56 pieces UK: WHS N/A $4.37-$14.99
30185 Little Eagle
48 pieces LEGO S&H $15.20 $1.94-$5.00
30186 Christmas Tree
51 pieces US: TRU N/A $5.99-$7.29
40073 Panda
N/A? N/A? N/A?
40078 Hot Dog Stand
39 pieces 2 minifigs LEGO S&H free with purchase $11.11 $7.27-$19.99
40079 Mini VW T1 Camper Van
76 pieces LEGO S&H with purchase or $6.99 $20.94 $14.99-$23.99
30106 Ice Cream Stand
34 pieces 1 minifig US: Target UK: Girl Talk $5.91 $2.99-$8.88
30107 Birthday Party
39 pieces 1 minifig US: TRU $7.21 $6.00-$11.42
30108 Summer Picnic
33 pieces 1 minifig US: Target UK: Daily Mail $4.16 $2.25-$9.99
30250 Ewar's Acro Fighter
33 pieces 1 minifig LEGO S&H, TRU, Target $7.26 $2.00-$7.99
30251 Winzar's Pack Patrol
38 pieces 1 minifig US: Target UK Daily Mail $5.02 $4.99-$7.99
30252 Crug's Swamp Jet
23 Pieces 1 minifig US: TRU $6.53 $3.34-$8.99
30253 Leonidas' Jungle Dragster
30 pieces 1 minifig US: TRU $6.55 $3.10-$9.99
30254 Razcals' Double-Crosser
36 pieces 1 minifig US: Walmart $6.74 $4.55-$9.99
30255 Crawley
11 pieces 1 minifig SE/NO/DK only $13.13 $6.88-$9.95
30260 Lone Ranger's Pump Car
24 pieces 1 minifig US: Walmart UK: Daily Mail $9.21 $2.50-$7.99
30261 Tonto's Campfire
20 pieces 1 minifig Promotional US: TRU $8.89 $4.99-$8.00
30216 Lake Town Guard
31 pieces 1 minifig US: TRU N/A $6.99-$11.50
30240 Z-95 Headhunter
54 pieces US: Walmart UK: Daily Mail $5.97 $2.25-$5.99
30241 Mandalorian Fighter
49 pieces US: TRU $5.36 $2.04-$6.50
30242 Republic Frigate
45 pieces LEGO S&H w/ $50 purchase $6.98 $4.85-$7.49
30243 Umbaran MHC
48 pieces US: Target, Walmart $6.19 $2.26-$7.00
5001621 Han Solo Hoth
5 pieces 1 minifig May the 4th promo $13.40 $7.00-$15.00
5001709 Clone Trooper Lieutenant
5 pieces 1 minifig LEGO S&H with purchase $14.08 $8.71-$9.99
30166 Robin and Redbird Cycle
40 pieces 1 minifig CAN: TRU US: TRU $17.55 $9.99-$12.99
30167 Iron Man vs. Fighting Drone
24 pieces 1 minifig US: TRU $8.72 $6.01-$7.49
30168 Iron Patriot
17 pieces 1 minifig With video game preorder N/A $21.00-$29.99
50016231 Jor-El
5 pieces 1 minifig LEGO S&H with purchase $13.53 $9.04-$16.07
30270 Kraang's Turtle Target Practice
36 pieces 1 minifig US: TRU N/A $2.82-$5.72
40051 Valentine's Day Heart Box
54 Pieces LEGO S&H $10.78 $6.99-$13.58
40052 Springtime Scene
88 pieces 2 minifigs LEGO S&H $8.52 $6.45-$9.99
40053 Easter Bunny w/Basket
96 pieces LEGO S&H $9.37 $5.16-$9.99
40054 Summer Scene
40 pieces 1 minifig LEGO S&H $10.82 $7.79-$10.00
40055 Halloween Pumpkin
52 pieces LEGO S&H $10.11 $6.99-$15.99
40056 Thanksgiving Feast
46 pieces 2 minifigs LEGO S&H $11.83 $10.99-$13.99
40057 Fall Scene
72 pieces 3 minifigs LEGO S&H $11.94 $11.00-$14.95
40058 Decorating the Tree
110 pieces 2 minifigs LEGO S&H $11.62 $7.49-$8.99
40059 Santa's Sleigh
77 pieces 2 minifigs LEGO S&H $12.55 $12.50-$14.99
Wow.
That took substantially longer than I though it would, but I think I've gained some fairly useful insight into the world of polybags.
First, people be crazy! I consistently - consistently - see polybag auction sales that are anywhere from 25-75% less than Buy It Now auction prices. Granted, while looking at hundreds and hundreds of recent sold listings I didn't read each description but even spending five minutes researching as I have you'll see this immediately. This is useful for two reasons; 1) If you are selling, please use BIN (as long as your BIN is not a totally ridiculous price) and, 2) If you are looking for a particular polybag, wait for auctions and bid low on a few auctions. It seems that some folks are getting a poly for $2.25 while others are paying $9.99 for a BIN auction literally on **the same day! **With a little patience and persistence I'd wager you can get your desired poly cheaper than a lot of the BIN prices and Brickpicker AVG prices you see.
Next, timing is almost everything. A couple examples on the negative side: The Robin and Cycle polybag was originally only in Canada during a TRU promotion. These featured a popular theme, had a cool minifig, and were selling for more than double their current rate. Sadly, like many non-exclusive LEGO S&H polybags, they ended up on shelves in TRUs in the USA and in days the price tumbled to where it is now. I remember when folks on Brickpicker forums were asking us Canucks to send them one for $25 or $30! The Clone Lieutenant SW poly is another fine example - at first his availability was very limited and he was selling for a fortune (Brickpicker says people were paying over $100 for him at one point) but soon he became widely available and dropped to a more reasonable level. Lesson: if a polybag is exclusive to one promotion/country it is likely it may become available further down the line more widely and your potential profits start to disappear. If you do get your hands on something good, keep a close eye on the forums and LEGO-related websites. If rumors come of your big money set showing up elsewhere, better unload quickly.
On the positive side of timing, for S&H exclusives, it seems the time to buy them is immediately. Items like the Hot Dog Cart, VW Camper and others experienced a glut on the secondary market during and right after their promotional use. I'm quite certain you could have grabbed a few VW's for half of their current price if you were crafty and patient. (remember to look for auctions, not BIN, for the most part, unless someone has posted a crazy BIN in a drunken stupor)
Lastly, exclusives seems to do the best. By that, I mean exclusive sets that are from S&H, either for sale or from promotions. Granted, they do best on total sale prices, but the benefit of widely available sets is that large retailers can and do mark down polys like crazy. Folks on the forums are seemingly always running across some of these sets at TRU or Walmart and scooping them up for under a buck-fifty. At that price, it is tough to say no! Only looking at sale prices doesn't take into account the buy-in price.
One more tip from looking at thousands of pages of ebay data - when you do have a lot of polys, grouped packages seem to do well. Say, all three 2013 Friends polys with a solid BIN price, or the seasonal LEGO S&H polys (Spring Scene, Summer & Fall) with a nice BIN. To get a lot of polys, buy larger lots of polybags (10 or 20 bag lots) for a lower price per package right after a promotion when the market is flooded, and always poke your nose around clearance aisles. Most of the great poly deals I've heard of come from Brickpickers who just happened to be wandering around a store and saw a box of nicely priced bags.
I had a blast checking out these sets, and you really should scan the data and make your own conclusions, but I'd say the top five polys of the year, for investing (I'm not including Iron Patriot here because I don't know how anyone could accrue a sufficient amount of these for investing purposes unless they bought 20 copies of the video game), as in, I wish I had ten or more of each of these:
#5Hot Dog Cart (A great little S&H exclusive set (with purchase), but I'm not sure how much more value can come from this poly)
#4 Robin Redbird Cycle/Clone Lieutenant (great early returns, if market saturation abates these could climb in 2014)
#3 Jor-El (Exclusive to S&H with purchase, might see more growth with another Superman movie)
#2 Han Solo Hoth (Exclusive to May the 4th and some LEGO store openings, this little guy suffered from market overload earlier in the year, but 2014 might see modest gains, especially around May 4th 2014)
#1 VW Camper (Exclusive to S&H with purchase, this pairs very nicely with its big brother - like the mini Sopwith Camel poly from the previous year - and it seems that market saturation is evaporating and prices are increasing. For those that held or bought low, this little bag might pan out nicely in 2014)
