The Zombies set was a Target exclusive, meaning that people could only purchase it through them or an actual LEGO store, thus causing the set to have a more limited availability than the average LEGO set. Even more, The Zombies only lasted for a few months and was retired very soon and without notice, a couple of facts that ended up boosting its appeal to both investors and collectors.
A lot has happened over the months this has been retired, but ever since this particular set has been in the top 3 places in the list of top performing sets of the last 6 months (BrickIndex). It actually spent several months on the first spot, but as time goes on and its growth slows down it has dropped to "only" third place.
We have to remember; this set was priced with a MSRP or $39.99 and at this point is selling for almost three times that value ($ 117.47). The rapid growth experienced by this set in a very short time caused its CAGR to be extremely positive at around 194%!.
Let's now take a look at the growth of the set in the graph below.
As you see above, the growth of the set really started accelerating once December came along, and has since grown every single month up to April of this year. In the table above, you will also see that there is a regression line that serves to show the linear trend the set has been following over the past 6 months.
Over the past month of April (last month we currently have data from) the set appears to have started slowing down on its growth, going up in value by "only" 2.5%. Once we get the data from the month of May we will be able to tell if the set is definitely maturing and will then only show minor variations in its value in the short term, but I think that even without that data the graph and some logic would suggest that to be the case.
What made this set so successful is such a short period of time? well, a big part of it is its limited availability and early retirement. Another point that probably played a role is the current popularity of anything even remotely related to Zombies, that probably made this set even more appealing even for the casual LEGO buyer.
To conclude, I just want to add that even though this set has been in the BrickIndex for the past several months and even continues showing some recent growth, most investors that currently do not own one would be better served by purchasing some of the other sets currently available. Opposite to the case of the Winter Village Bakery, I believe that the chance to make significant profits in the short to medium term are almost null with this set given its growth pattern and its current market value.
Thanks for reading
