chipbee Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 32 minutes ago, biking_tiger said: Abbreviation and/or code is not acronym. R = Monterrey, Mexico. So the R isn't even really an abbreviation, let alone acronym. Acronym is a subset of abbreviation, by definition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HandyHand Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 2 hours ago, Veegs said: In this crazy world with investors reading about Lego and immediately buying some, I tend to believe they are buying modulars first (terrible strategy imho for almost all of them) and the sales ranks back me up - or the Brick Bank spurred a run on modulars greater than the runs on several SW sets? PC isn't a terrible seller, in fact, since I posted an article about not investing in modualrs last week, its sales rank has jumped to 70 in building blocks and PS got a bump to 45. PR is 104 at the moment. With sales like these I no longer think it is a guarantee that any modular retires this year. If Ed and his #chaos are to be believed, sets that sell well will stay. Planning and expecting modulars to retire looks less and less likely. Last year everyone said PS would retire and I even I thought the odds were about 90% it would retire in Q4 2015. Now I'm only about 50% sure it will retire in Q4 2016, and I don't think PC or PR are more likely. Even IF you want to invest in modulars, it seems insane to do so in January, when all signs point to availability for all of 2016. I'd like to be wrong, believe me, as surprise retirements create profits (usually), but I think TLG might cut other slower selling large sets/exclusives and keep what is selling on the shelves. If investors stopped buying PS worldwide for about eight months, then I'd be more confident in a 2016 retirement. If new investors keep buying up stock like crazy sheep (check the 2015 winter/spring/summer threads) I'm not sold and I'm not tying up extra capital at this point. Blah, long post. So many sets that are sold out/retired on SAH are still available at retailers and will almost certainly offer a good return by Oct-Dec this year. Why new investors aren't grabbing these, I have no idea. I'm painstakingly hunting a few of these sets down in any and all retailers around me. I couldn't agree more, @Veegs. The Advanced Modular buildings are just not interesting any longer as investment sets. Sure, after retirement they will rise in price a bit, but hardly enough to even cover the costs and efforts you'll have to actually sell them through eBay or similar platform. I only have 1 each of the PS, PC and PR for my own future building enjoyment. Stocking up on them is a waste of my money which I could put into better (under-appreciated) sets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cladner Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 yesterday spotted some Minecraft 21115 The First Night on clearance at a walmart for $30.00 - 25% off - left them for now because they were in CT and didn't want to pay sales tax when i could get them soon for maybe the same price in NH without the tax. Walmart clearance has been decent predictor of EOL recently. The same store had severely damaged versions of Imperial Shuttle Tyuidum (sp) and Kylo Ren's Shuttle for $74 and $89 - both were opened though so I left them. Doubt Kylo Ren is going anywhere - IST - not so sure. I picked up a mint IST for $74 a week ago so this one is probably on the way out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sprocket77 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 9 minutes ago, Haay said: I couldn't agree more, @Veegs. The Advanced Modular buildings are just not interesting any longer as investment sets. Sure, after retirement they will rise in price a bit, but hardly enough to even cover the costs and efforts you'll have to actually sell them through eBay or similar platform. I only have 1 each of the PS, PC and PR for my own future building enjoyment. Stocking up on them is a waste of my money which I could put into better (under-appreciated) sets. Ah but what are those better (under-appreciated) sets?? Takes out note pad, sharpens pencil, right I'm all ears Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biking_tiger Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 15 minutes ago, chipbee said: Acronym is a subset of abbreviation, by definition. And all cats are mammals, but not all mammals are cats. Back to the retirement speculation... it's better for the bruise on my forehead from slamming it into my desk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HandyHand Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Sprocket77 said: Ah but what are those better (under-appreciated) sets?? Takes out note pad, sharpens pencil, right I'm all ears Heh heh, wouldn't we all want to know huh? But for this I side with @Veegs who wrote a nice blog article about this: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Sprocket77 said: Ah but what are those better (under-appreciated) sets?? Takes out note pad, sharpens pencil, right I'm all ears If he told everyone, then they wouldn't be under-appreciated would they? No reason to get the horde involved when you find a winner... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sprocket77 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 7 minutes ago, MarxMarvelous said: If he told everyone, then they wouldn't be under-appreciated would they? No reason to get the horde involved when you find a winner... Damn you sir and your logic, that's not for internet forums. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HandyHand Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 1 hour ago, cladner said: The same store had severely damaged versions of Imperial Shuttle Tyuidum (sp) and Kylo Ren's Shuttle for $74 and $89 - both were opened though so I left them. Doubt Kylo Ren is going anywhere - IST - not so sure. I picked up a mint IST for $74 a week ago so this one is probably on the way out. Come on, IST is a mid-2015 set. It's a very attractive mid sized Star Wars play set, well received and liked by people who built it. No way this set is going to retire already before the start of 2017! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sprocket77 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 8 minutes ago, Haay said: THIS WILL DEFINITELY retire already before the start of 2017! Fixed that for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HandyHand Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6 minutes ago, Sprocket77 said: Fixed that for you. Then, let's all go full horde on it! Stampede!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sprocket77 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 10 minutes ago, Haay said: Then, let's all go full horde on it! Stampede!!! Bit early for that, calm yourself down will you. Plenty of time for panic later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cladner Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 14 minutes ago, Haay said: Come on, IST is a mid-2015 set. It's a very attractive mid sized Star Wars play set, well received and liked by people who built it. No way this set is going to retire already before the start of 2017! Walmart clearance has been surprisingly accurate predictor of impending EOL in the last 6 months. I agree with you that it seems implausible given the brief production life so far. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay4e Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 8 minutes ago, Haay said: Then, let's all go full horde on it! Stampede!!! after ISD and AT-AT that is likely. same thing that happened to PS and PC last year, after all the hype around HH and TH. I suspect IST and many other OT sets will go earlier than traditional with the new movies, but also be heavily hoarded. best way to win is minimize your buy in on these. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil B Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 7 minutes ago, jay4e said: after ISD and AT-AT that is likely. same thing that happened to PS and PC last year, after all the hype around HH and TH. I suspect IST and many other OT sets will go earlier than traditional with the new movies, but also be heavily hoarded. best way to win is minimize your buy in on these. Even better: don't buy and dump all your existing stock for 50% of MSRP ! Run! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tractorboy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I wouldn't be too surprised to see IST go this summer. With a new SW movie out every year now, they can only focus on so many OT sets for so long. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fossilrock Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 17 minutes ago, cladner said: Walmart clearance has been surprisingly accurate predictor of impending EOL in the last 6 months. I agree with you that it seems implausible given the brief production life so far. Plus, these are selling right now at anywhere between mid 70s to the mid 80s. This has shades of last year, when you could pick up the At-At's for low 80's to mid 90s about six months before they went OOS. IMO, if you want just one or two, then you still have time, but if you want more than a few, now's a perfect time to get a good buy-in on this set. I also feel the same way about the Jedi Duels. I think we are in a new and interesting era that isn't like it was a few years ago. I wouldn't doubt to see a rotating line of SW sets that last a year or less, and that includes movie sets. Hasbro does this with their toy lines, so i'm sure Disney would like to see Lego do something similar. It keeps the collector money flowing CONSTANTLY! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zskid00 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 (edited) I don't see LEGO retiring anything mid-year, especially with all of the sets they just took out of production in 4Q. Something to keep an eye on though as there have been much shorter production cycles for non-exclusives recently. Edited January 19, 2016 by zskid00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fossilrock Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 8 minutes ago, zskid00 said: I don't see LEGO retiring anything mid-year, especially with all of the sets they just took out of production in 4Q. Something to keep an eye on though as there have been much shorter production cycles for non-exclusives recently. Although, they did retire hobbit and lego movie sets in europe last year during the summer. So, you just never know. I've come to the conclusion there is no set definite pattern 100% of the time. There is definitely some variance. Although, to be honest, there was a time period last year where it looked like Cantinas were on their way out around the early part of May, but then they did another run of them in June. Weirdly, many of those went straight to the discount line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Briggs Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 19 hours ago, Grynn said: 51R5 for Sydney Opera House and Strategic Homeland Intervention Enforcement & Logistics Division Helicarrier too. 47R5 for Simpsons House. Catering to the anti-acronym crowd today obviously... The word "Helicarrier" is a good clue but still it took me a few seconds to realize what set you're talking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biking_tiger Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 24 minutes ago, fossilrock said: Although, they did retire hobbit and lego movie sets in europe last year during the summer. So, you just never know. I've come to the conclusion there is no set definite pattern 100% of the time. There is definitely some variance. Although, to be honest, there was a time period last year where it looked like Cantinas were on their way out around the early part of May, but then they did another run of them in June. Weirdly, many of those went straight to the discount line. I think it's more a case of "the last production runs sold out and we simply marked them as 'retired'" than any sort of plan. Why are the best clearance sales after Christmas (in almost all of retail)? Businesses are clearing out their old stock/out of production products. Lego makes "enough" to last through the holidays. Some of the time it does, some of the time it doesn't. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fossilrock Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 7 minutes ago, biking_tiger said: I think it's more a case of "the last production runs sold out and we simply marked them as 'retired'" than any sort of plan. Why are the best clearance sales after Christmas (in almost all of retail)? Businesses are clearing out their old stock/out of production products. Lego makes "enough" to last through the holidays. Some of the time it does, some of the time it doesn't. True. It seems that the FO snowspeeder and the FO Tie-fighter from the FA wave one line is getting a bit of a discount right now at wallyfworld. The rest are not. Granted the FO snow speeder leaves me kind of cold, and I think it's like the b-wing of the FA sets, where it will probably be the least valuable of the line. Either way, take it for what its worth. I think in terms of "buy-in", it's probably the best time to buy the summer 2015 sets, and these 2 FA sets. There could be some better opportunities when TRU does their traditional spring BOGO40%, but they will probably jack up the price, to where it's about even with where they are now. If you are buying a bunch, now's a good time to pick these sets up, IMO. I'd suspect by November, many of these 2015 winter/summer sets will be scarce in the wild, and online.. I personally see it as a year long grind and since 2014's sets are gone, 2015 is now in season. With the prices on these sets at the moment, i've been starting to buy IST sets and want to try and pick up about 10 of them before they exit. So, a few every month at these discounts are ok with me, .. Personally, I think the IST and the Jedi Duels are worth some investment cash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay4e Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 (edited) 42 minutes ago, fossilrock said: Although, they did retire hobbit and lego movie sets in europe last year during the summer. So, you just never know. I've come to the conclusion there is no set definite pattern 100% of the time. There is definitely some variance. Although, to be honest, there was a time period last year where it looked like Cantinas were on their way out around the early part of May, but then they did another run of them in June. Weirdly, many of those went straight to the discount line. Licensing is a big factor in many retirements. even in regards to the LEGO movie, there are still licensing fees paid, to various parties. Licensing will also vary by region, and can lead to staggered retirements. The tumbler is a perfect example of the complexity licensing can add. Its not just a Batman License, but other parties have royalty rights to specific designs and DC may not want to continue to license the Nolan era with the reboots coming. I think licensing is less of an issue with SW since the OT will always rule and be the primary source, and its unlikely LEGO will ever give up their SW license. But many IPs can change even within a theme, or be short lived due to the Licensing rights. Edited January 19, 2016 by jay4e Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jloco15 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Any thoughts on the Fairground Mixer. Will it retire this Spring? Is it going to follow the same pattern as the winter theme? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justapilgrim Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Pretty sure avengers tower will be retired when current stock sells out. Clearanced everywhere, I think licence will lapse in time for civil war. I don't think they want all the old sets lingering with new stuff available Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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