Retiring Soon - open speculation

[redghostx]

My speculation based on reading all other speculation.

It seems to me that there are more new releases this year than there was at this time last year (new friends, star wars, monsters, city, creator, exclusives, etc) and Lego has allocated their limited production runs to all of these new lines. 

Theories why:

Lego knows the rate that exclusives (and all sets) sell and creates medium term production plans based on that.  For example, if 70 PR restaurants are sold in Europe in any given week, then a 600 unit run will last ~2 months.  An uptick in sales isn't going to cause Lego to create a new, brief production run as that is an inefficient use of resources but it might create an additional, later production run or a larger production run at a regularly scheduled time.  Last year, Lego put on clearance or discounted a number of exclusives in Europe and perhaps they have a better analysis of sales to prevent future overproduction

Lego is using all of its production capabilities for new releases and to prevent a large shortage at Christmas and because of this, Lego doesn't really have a set time to create a further run on Sold out sets at this time. This actually achieves two objectives: 1 is that it keeps its status as the largest toy company and 2 it negatively impacts the resell market.  Little Jimmy can actually get his Christmas gift straight from Lego or [insert retailer].

Perhaps all of the current modulars will get new boxes.  The city trains and tracks received new boxes with the new city logo so this is possible.

There are other macro and micro possibilities too, but I lack enough information to speculate further (pricing for one, sales for two).

 

 

 

[Miami Bomb Squad]

Let's assert some common sense here. 
Maybe those items are sold out in the Europe,.......for now, And when they are able to fill more orders, they will make them Available again.  
Except the DS...........or course.
Notice this is taking place at the slowest time for toys.  Now if this showed up during OCT, NOV & DEC, then I would Hit the Panic button.
But for now, go get some Ice Cream.

[Frank Brickowski]

Excellent explanation.  Thanks.  The highlighted point is the key.  Being that their production capacity is finite, they have to make choices.  This new STAR WARS movie is making them make choices they never did before.  

Do you KNOW they also retire sets because of higher production cost or do you assume it? If you KNOW it, there would of course be no need to argue anymore.

Otherwise I would have liked to point towards Sydney Opera House: poor, poor seller AND it has for example more unique parts than some EOL-discussed modulars AND it has a much bigger box AND it had already been discounted last Black Friday - why have TLG not retired this one already? If production cost was such a big factor besides sales, then SOH should go first of all, not any of the modulars.

[Ed Mack]

Do you KNOW they also retire sets because of higher production cost or do you assume it? If you KNOW it, there would of course be no need to argue anymore.

Otherwise I would have liked to point towards Sydney Opera House: poor, poor seller AND it has for example more unique parts than some EOL-discussed modulars AND it has a much bigger box AND it had already been discounted last Black Friday - why have TLG not retired this one already? If production cost was such a big factor besides sales, then SOH should go first of all, not any of the modulars.

First off...nobody is arguing.  It is a discussion.  It is ALL speculation.  We are all just guessing at what is occurring with these SOLD OUT sets.  Glitch, no glitch, shifting inventory, delay in production, planned retirement...who knows?  

As for the Sydney Opera House, maybe they have nothing to replace it with at the moment.  Maybe they are phasing out the Modulars in Europe.  That would be a interesting development.  

[Grynn]

 I lack enough information to speculate further

That's not how this forum works, sir - Please try again! 

 

All I know for sure is that whatever they are doing, I blame Lego for this thread taking up too much of my day(s) lately...

Edited July 22, 2015 by Grynn
quote fail

[TLKC]

Stock update....

 

http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/eu-inventory.cfm?cat_id=653

[redghostx]

That's not how this forum works, sir - Please try again! 

 

All I know for sure is that whatever they are doing, I blame Lego for this thread taking up too much of my day(s) lately...

Oh, uhhh, I didn't see the Ferris Wheel in store, so it must be retiring soon.  Is that better?

[mahler24]

Im on the verge of panic for PC and PS....i have none and ive been waiting for 6 months or more to get a discount.....nothing....and now this???

 

[MarleyMoose]

Not sure if this has been said before but the Simpsons House at Shop says "We are sorry that this set is not available. Please check back in September for product availability." 

 

[Darth_Raichu]

Not sure if this has been said before but the Simpsons House at Shop says "We are sorry that this set is not available. Please check back in September for product availability." 

 

It has been like that since late May or early June

[MarleyMoose]

Roger That

[BrickDesign]

‌@mahler24

I'm in a similar boat. I don't have PR, even though I've literally been talking about buying one In the past three weeks.

No PR? It can't be possible, can it?

 

If we speculate that this whole thing is just a glitch, Has a "glitch" like this ever happened before? 

[Cardiff]

Concerning all the discussed aspects, lets keep the facts:

1. Quite a few exclusive sets are unavailable at the moment. LEGO may make them available sooner or later, or maybe never.

2. Only a higher LEGO employee knows why and how long all these sets are unavaliable. None of the hotline guys really knows, they just tell you what they're told to tell or what they believe- most propably a mixture of both

3. The really important question is in which manner it affects your investment strategy. Honestly it shouldn't that much because decision based on emotional thoughts like "dam i missed the boat on PC, PR, ... time to panic !" is a sign you didn't build up a stock in the past, which you should have

 

Personal thoughts:

1. I don't believe LEGO really cares about resellers. What are resellers for LEGO? Customers who buy sets in larger quantities than normal, keep the sets in order to make a profit in the future. Resellers just increase profit for LEGO right at the moment they buy sets, that's it

2. Most of you will agree that the reseller-market grew largely within the last years. Different times nowadays, I don't expect most sets to double or triple in 1 or 2 years

3. Don't try to investment in every sets ore lines. Analyze your given circumstances: How much money, time and space is available and how long will I keep the sets. Buying Decisions should be based on these circumstances

4. The key to succesful LEGO investing ? information, information, information ! True, reliable inside information- it's as precious as gold

 

[BrickDesign]

So what do you think in regards the "Sold out" modulars, with a particular emphasis on PR (as I believe this would be the most unexpected modular to be retired)?

[Directed to all Brickpicker users]

[oneknightr]

Did anyone provide an answer as to whether people can buy the "Sold Out" sets in Europe over the phone? If it's a glitch like they had with Ecto-1 here in the US last month, people should be able to. I did that to get the Winter Soldier promo.

[El Guapo]

So what do you think in regards the "Sold out" modulars, with a particular emphasis on PR (as I believe this would be the most unexpected modular to be retired)?

[Directed to all Brickpicker users]

I am not really phased.   The timing is what's off.  It's not one or two sets that went to sold out in a day...it was a slew of them.  Are we to believe they sold their last remaining unit of 7 or 8 different sets on one day?  I don't. 

My guess (which is no better than anyone else's)...is that they are doing an update on the sight.  Finding a way to better integrate actual stock levels to the levels to that of the website (or something like that).  They did the Ecto-1 as a test last month.  I feel like these will come back and soon other sets will go to "Sold Out" as they cycle through them.  Unlike my company, that will update their system over a long holiday weekend, sights like LEGO Shop at Home don't have that luxury, as people are on there using it at all hours of the day.

[tacsniper]

So what do you think in regards the "Sold out" modulars, with a particular emphasis on PR (as I believe this would be the most unexpected modular to be retired)?

[Directed to all Brickpicker users]

With DS retiring in the middle of the year and possibility of short supply of JW, and increase production for new sets (Scooby Doo, new friends, tons and tons of new Star Wars) anything is possible. But i don't buy PR is retiring just because modulars are great sellers

[diablo2112]

I highly doubt TLG is retiring 3 modulars at once, I just don't see this.  Until proven otherwise, this near-term development is just something to watch and learn from.   We'll know soon enough.   That said, I'd be thrilled if PR is gone.  I hit my quota in the Spring.  There are ways to get discounts on this set, and using some of these strategies, I picked up my usual 10x (and PC/PS as well).  It ain't going to happen, but if PR becomes the next TH, well, that's just fine by me.

Of all the sets listed as Sold Out, I find The Birds among the most interesting, actually.  a 6-month life is not unprecedented for Ideas sets, and AFAIK, they've only had 2 packaging runs on this set (44R4 and 15R5 by memory?).  I still think Birds is a total sleeper, with tons of AFOL appeal (and even non-AFOL adult appeal).  At a sub $40 buy-in, this could be $100+ set not far from retirement.

 

Edited July 22, 2015 by diablo2112

[Val-E]

Sea Cow got a major restock to over 1k units whereas previously it has hovered around 300 units. That could be its last production run ever.

[exciter1]

So what do you think in regards the "Sold out" modulars, with a particular emphasis on PR (as I believe this would be the most unexpected modular to be retired)?

[Directed to all Brickpicker users]

Average investor/collector, not phased, they probably already have what they feel comfortable with.  Larger investor and opportunity knocker, possibly phased, they have decisions to make.

[mahler24]

Concerning all the discussed aspects, lets keep the facts:

1. Quite a few exclusive sets are unavailable at the moment. LEGO may make them available sooner or later, or maybe never.

2. Only a higher LEGO employee knows why and how long all these sets are unavaliable. None of the hotline guys really knows, they just tell you what they're told to tell or what they believe- most propably a mixture of both

3. The really important question is in which manner it affects your investment strategy. Honestly it shouldn't that much because decision based on emotional thoughts like "dam i missed the boat on PC, PR, ... time to panic !" is a sign you didn't build up a stock in the past, which you should have

 

Personal thoughts:

1. I don't believe LEGO really cares about resellers. What are resellers for LEGO? Customers who buy sets in larger quantities than normal, keep the sets in order to make a profit in the future. Resellers just increase profit for LEGO right at the moment they buy sets, that's it

2. Most of you will agree that the reseller-market grew largely within the last years. Different times nowadays, I don't expect most sets to double or triple in 1 or 2 years

3. Don't try to investment in every sets ore lines. Analyze your given circumstances: How much money, time and space is available and how long will I keep the sets. Buying Decisions should be based on these circumstances

4. The key to succesful LEGO investing ? information, information, information ! True, reliable inside information- it's as precious as gold

 

i was trying to build up a good stock with these but i was waiting for some kind, any kind of discount on them.....okay i can double my money if i buy them at retail, but with GE i got in at 104 euros and was hoping for any kind of deal with these two sets also.....so now i think the deal is probabley not going to happen and should i buy these sets at retail or just ignore them and focus on others?

 

 

Edited July 22, 2015 by mahler24

[mudcatsfan]

Did anyone provide an answer as to whether people can buy the "Sold Out" sets in Europe over the phone? If it's a glitch like they had with Ecto-1 here in the US last month, people should be able to. I did that to get the Winter Soldier promo.

I'm still waiting for this simple answer too. I'm not in Europe, so i'll say NOT IT. 

Can someone please just call, and try to order a set? Not just ask if it's a glitch, but order a set. That should really answer a few questions.

[mattyman]

In the UK I tried to order through the phone. She said they couldn't. They have a logistics issue in the warehouse and are trying to sort it. She says they are definitely still producing those sets and will become oderable again soon.

[No More Monkeys]

Logistics issues in the warehouse:

Edited July 22, 2015 by No More Monkeys

[Val-E]

Looks like Laszlo from the warehouse hasn´t been keeping track of his stock properly and now after a manual recount the real qty doesn´t  match what the computer says.

 

Solution, set to sold out and wait for new production.

Edited July 22, 2015 by valenciaeric