41999 - 4x4 Crawler Exclusive Edition

[Quacs]

you didn't include international ebay sales... in on ebay.co.uk alone another 150 were sold.

 

True, but this doesn't change the % of flipped vs. unflipped drastically - that's only 0.75% of the 20,000 sets.  If EU eBays contribute another 150-200 sold, your still in the 15% range overall.  The point of my earlier post still stands.

[legomaniac85]

The LEGO store in Sal Lake has 9 of these on the shelf right now!

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

True, but this doesn't change the % of flipped vs. unflipped drastically - that's only 0.75% of the 20,000 sets.  If EU eBays contribute another 150-200 sold, your still in the 15% range overall.  The point of my earlier post still stands.

 

Besides the fact that some of these may be duplicate sets. The first wave were going for $300 or so for a while - once they bounced up to 4 or more, some people may have taken the money and run.

 

More importantly Quacs point is valid because the set still has a limit to the amount made. So its not like another set, like the TB, that everyone buys. People will want this set and they will continue to want this set - there will only ever be 20000. And once the waves start, they will rise in price again. Just as they are doing each time until another wave comes out.

 

I think Quacs point is

[metsrock507]

True, but this doesn't change the % of flipped vs. unflipped drastically - that's only 0.75% of the 20,000 sets.  If EU eBays contribute another 150-200 sold, your still in the 15% range overall.  The point of my earlier post still stands.

EACH EU ebay site will have sold about 150, im not sure exactly how many there are but i would assume at least 5. and dont forget russia and australia, both have large collector/investor populations.(im basing this on the amount of ebay sales/inquiries i get from these 2 countries) i think all these factors combined can DOUBLE your estimate of flipped sets. 

[MartinP]

The LEGO store in Sal Lake has 9 of these on the shelf right now!

Wow. I can't seem to find one at my local Lego store.

[toni8284]

USA TOYS R US ONLINE HAD 41999 IN STOCK!!!!!

 

EDIT: It's all gone now....

 

EDIT : I feel so evil now... since I ordered 5....

[Quacs]

EACH EU ebay site will have sold about 150, im not sure exactly how many there are but i would assume at least 5. and dont forget russia and australia, both have large collector/investor populations.(im basing this on the amount of ebay sales/inquiries i get from these 2 countries) i think all these factors combined can DOUBLE your estimate of flipped sets. 

 

 

Okay, I think you're a little loose with your estimates but double the original estimates and the point still stands.  The market for this set isn't just flippers.  If you're doubling 1,800 to 3,600, you're still looking at over 80% of the sales to non-flippers.

 

If you can prove to me the flipping mark is over 50% of sales, then there may be a point.  I just don't believe any reasonable estimate would bear this out.

[Coneil21]

Toys r us ebay is in stock. Just ordered one.

[Locutis]

Okay, I think you're a little loose with your estimates but double the original estimates and the point still stands.  The market for this set isn't just flippers.  If you're doubling 1,800 to 3,600, you're still looking at over 80% of the sales to non-flippers.

 

If you can prove to me the flipping mark is over 50% of sales, then there may be a point.  I just don't believe any reasonable estimate would bear this out.

 

When you find it hard to get at retail, and when you hear about people accumulating 200+ of these, and you look and numerous people are selling several of them on Bricklink and eBay, you get quite discouraged.

 

Once you break down the data, and present it the way you have, it becomes clear that a vast majority of the sets sold at retail were to end consumers.  Or at least so it seems.

 

From the standpoint of a collector who spent nearly 2 months trying to get one of these sets at retail, it's irritating.  When you try to buy just one, and can't find any, and you hear about resellers walking into Lego stores and buying 2, then another and buying 2 more, and getting their wife and neighbor to do  the same, it gets downright angering.

 

One thing you fail to take into consideration would be all of the unsold units still out there, in reseller's hands, unlisted anywhere.  How many sets were purchased and put away for a future sale, and show the appearance of being "off the market"?  What we're seeing is only what is "on the market" at the present time, or has sold through the market in the past 8 weeks.  If 20% of sales were to flippers, then potentially at least another 20% could have been sold to small investors who are not selling theirs yet.  That is then 40%.  If that is the case, the market will soften as these are introduced back into the market.

 

Thoughts?

 

Locutis

Resistance is futile.

[sgoldham]

It's available on TRU's eBay site. Hurry!

[Anakinisvader]

While you all are fighting over numbers, I am buying and flipping. The only number that matters is: Cha Ching!!!!!

[boliramirez]

I missed it...... well there are over 20,000 ,I'll get another one later..... hahahha

[segreto]

USA TOYS R US ONLINE HAD 41999 IN STOCK!!!!!

 

EDIT: It's all gone now....

 

EDIT : I feel so evil now... since I ordered 5....

I can only get 1, but I did get a few dollars off using Paypal.  I tried to get another, but it brings be to a red screen.

[roto22]

It's available on TRU's eBay site. Hurry!

 

Thanks for the heads up! Order just went through, lets hope it sticks!

[segreto]

I'm trying to get up to 11 paying retail, but I'm only 1/2 way there.  1 or 2 more TRU Ebay sales and I'll get there.  My original plan was to get 10 and flip 5 right at Christmas, but if that does not work out, I will just hold on to the 5 I have for a year or so.  Would be nice to flip them quickly and recoup all expenses for the 10 though.  I'd like the 11th one to save and build with my kids, but only if I get the 11th one soon!

 

 

Does anyone know if you can buy more than 1 from TRY Ebay if you do multiple sales?

[sgoldham]

Thanks for the heads up! Order just went through, lets hope it sticks!

fingers crossed!

[Quacs]

When you find it hard to get at retail, and when you hear about people accumulating 200+ of these, and you look and numerous people are selling several of them on Bricklink and eBay, you get quite discouraged.

 

Once you break down the data, and present it the way you have, it becomes clear that a vast majority of the sets sold at retail were to end consumers.  Or at least so it seems.

 

From the standpoint of a collector who spent nearly 2 months trying to get one of these sets at retail, it's irritating.  When you try to buy just one, and can't find any, and you hear about resellers walking into Lego stores and buying 2, then another and buying 2 more, and getting their wife and neighbor to do  the same, it gets downright angering.

 

One thing you fail to take into consideration would be all of the unsold units still out there, in reseller's hands, unlisted anywhere.  How many sets were purchased and put away for a future sale, and show the appearance of being "off the market"?  What we're seeing is only what is "on the market" at the present time, or has sold through the market in the past 8 weeks.  If 20% of sales were to flippers, then potentially at least another 20% could have been sold to small investors who are not selling theirs yet.  That is then 40%.  If that is the case, the market will soften as these are introduced back into the market.

 

Thoughts?

 

Locutis

Resistance is futile.

 

I understand and can empathize with people that didn't have an easy opportunity to get multiples of this.

 

That said, I'm sure there are plenty of folks holding on to these for future "investment" selling after retirement - I have one myself.

 

While it's impossible to know how many held sets are for investment or opened/gifted, I'm not sure that will be as critical once EOL hits.  At that point, it's just a waiting game.  Everyone will know the only way to get this set is through the secondary market.  It then becomes a waiting game, and a desirability question.  I happen to think this set has the desirability, so then it's just a matter of time before bigger gains are realized.

[grackleflint]

 

Does anyone know if you can buy more than 1 from TRY Ebay if you do multiple sales?

 

No probably not, There is a feature for sellers to limit the number of sales to an account for an item and it looks like TRU has set it to be 1. You would have to either wait for another new listing or create a new eBay account.

[legopocalypse]

Hope mine goes through too, looks like the 48 they had for sale on ebay are all sold.

[willy431]

I already sold my stack of crawlers and every one went to a reseller. There must be demand for end users of these things in europe and asia somewhere. I would have liked to see demand for end users in the USA as well but technic just does not have significant demand here. It will be interesting to see where these end up in 5 years.

 

 

Perhaps the lack of lego stores in all markets, and the refusal to deal with toysrus and their mark ups keep people away from technic.  If Walmart and Target carried this line at 20% off lego retail----there would be a lot more fans.  A lot more.

[Coneil21]

Does anyone know if you can buy more than 1 from TRY Ebay if you do multiple sales?

No. I tried to buy 2 at once and it automatically bumped me to one. Then I tried to get another one in a separate transaction, but didnt get very far (which I figured, but I figured Id give it a shot).

[segreto]

No probably not, There is a feature for sellers to limit the number of sales to an account for an item and it looks like TRU has set it to be 1. You would have to either wait for another new listing or create a new eBay account.

THanks.  Good advice.

[kenchu2000]

Thanks!  Got one.  

But it's a little pricey with all the mark ups and sales tax added up...

 

I think I will flip this one, if it goes through.

[Coneil21]

Thanks!  Got one.  

But it's a little pricey with all the mark ups and sales tax added up...

I got a little lucky bc when they cancelled my last order they offered 10% off of a future order. I cashed it in today, which at least covered the tax.

Also Toys R Us texted me a $10 off coupon today for no apparent reason. This was a first. Do they do this alot?

[kenchu2000]

btw, not that it matters, but does anyone know if the 4x4 crawler transaction goes through, would we also be getting a free 5 pk minifigure set?