Klownicle Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 28 minutes ago, raulaco said: I'll sell you it at cost if you promise not to re sell it for profit lol Wait I miss read your message and realise you weren't actually asking for it haha oops I was asking for one. 🤪 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrSam Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 I think people are forgetting that his set has been recalled. Sure, there were probably a handful of different production runs - maybe 10,000 set each. But that's only a small part of the equation. From what I understand, sets in LEGO's warehouses internationally will be destroyed/taken apart. It's only the sets that made it the final mile to retailers that will ever see the light of day. So the figure actually produced is almost negligible. Here in NZ, there were are two kinds of retailers: Big corporates, and smaller toys stores. All evidence I've received so far suggests that the big corporates get their shipments one week in advance so they can allocate to their networks, while smaller toy stores get them shipped a week later. Here in NZ, the set was pulled between shipping to big corporates and getting to smaller plays. So no smaller players have it, and all the big players only got a small batch of 3 or 6 sets per store. There won't be more - ever. My money is on the fact that the US will see none, and very, very few will be found on 1st Aug in the EU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pseudoty Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 (edited) If you look back at the Mars Rover thread and apply that information (which ended up being accurate) to this set we are looking at 30K sets already produced. The one big factor that may be different is does each production run last longer than one week or is the S production facility back to operating at normal capacity if so then we have already seen 3 different seal codes x 10K sets per run. Still possibly only one run spanning several weeks so 10K sets. Then have to factor in if all shipped and if any were actually recalled. Edited July 28, 2020 by Pseudoty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coelian Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 7 hours ago, MrSam said: I think people are forgetting that his set has been recalled. Sure, there were probably a handful of different production runs - maybe 10,000 set each. But that's only a small part of the equation. From what I understand, sets in LEGO's warehouses internationally will be destroyed/taken apart. It's only the sets that made it the final mile to retailers that will ever see the light of day. So the figure actually produced is almost negligible. Here in NZ, there were are two kinds of retailers: Big corporates, and smaller toys stores. All evidence I've received so far suggests that the big corporates get their shipments one week in advance so they can allocate to their networks, while smaller toy stores get them shipped a week later. Here in NZ, the set was pulled between shipping to big corporates and getting to smaller plays. So no smaller players have it, and all the big players only got a small batch of 3 or 6 sets per store. There won't be more - ever. My money is on the fact that the US will see none, and very, very few will be found on 1st Aug in the EU. I don't think recall is the right word, lego did not require retailers who already received the sets to send them back. I do agree that there will not be that many sets out in the wild, maybe a few thousand here and there that's it. I'm still keeping my fingers crossed that my local orders will go through, they informed me that they will only receive stock on August 4th so I hope that is not cancelled by lego and returned to them whilst it is still on the way. Some other swiss retailers have already cancelled my orders saying they can no longer obtain them. Given the lag between US and rest of world release there will be more than enough time for lego not to ship sets from Mexico or across the pond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joneyyy1981 Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 seems like the play is sending these overseas. bombarded overnight with offers from germany & holland a good 30% on top of what uk people offering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MasamuneHonjo Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, joneyyy1981 said: seems like the play is sending these overseas. bombarded overnight with offers from germany & holland a good 30% on top of what uk people offering. Out of curiosity, what price did you set yours at to be bombarded with offers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicSpeed Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 (edited) From the original post: In the set this single part seems to take the full force of the motor to power all four elements of the set. You can see the part I removed circled in the image above. If the gears skip then it's usually this part and the force through it caused the damage to it. I tried to rebuild it and did manage to get it to run more smoothly after I replaced it but it seems like extended use will cause damage to it over time. There's no room for any other part to fit so my theory is that it may be a design flaw in the set and it will distort over time and may be the main contribute to the set being cancelled since it was odd that a small group changed lego mind. I've tried rebuilding and checking it multiple times but nothing seems to make a difference. It's in a place where nothing else will fit so may require a whole redesign if lego were to try and fix it. Even though I own one, if someone else gets one, I'd like to ask them a few questions to compare. Edit: I thought I’d point out something else rather important. When the engines change position there isn’t anything to stop the motor so you have to try turning it off at the exact moment it fully rotates otherwise the mechanism will start clicking which will also damage the part. Lego has cogs designed to stop too much torque being applied, one even apears in the set but it’s in a place where it has no effect on the mechanism. So in conclusion if it was made of metal there wouldn't be a problem but the plastic just isn't strong enough on the part. Edited July 28, 2020 by CosmicSpeed Not the best read online, but the general point was in the OP's first comment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergei316 Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 As of the 07/28/2020 at 14:03 PST, eBay sales: 94 Sets Sold... $118,069.76 (USD) 87 Sets currently listed for sale. Average sale price $1,256.06 (USD) My opinion, move them while you can. Strike while the iron is hot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klownicle Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Sergei316 said: As of the 07/28/2020 at 14:03 PST, eBay sales: 94 Sets Sold... $118,069.76 (USD) 87 Sets currently listed for sale. Average sale price $1,256.06 (USD) My opinion, move them while you can. Strike while the iron is hot. That's beyond stupid. I love it. Lmao 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klownicle Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 On 7/27/2020 at 7:03 PM, Crispyvelo said: Hi all! My name is Chris from the US. I've got twin kiddos (6yo) that both LOVE LEGO. I love them too, but we have a small house and not a lot of storage space for finished builds. Lately I've been exploring the thought of investing in a few great sets...and somehow I stumbled onto the Osprey. I'm officially one of those "Shmucks" from the US that overpaid early exclusive ebay prices. I feel a little sick to my stomach....but I'm hoping that this set ends up being limited and worth collecting. Anyway...Hello If you have the means to spend that much then you shouldn't feel sick. It's what it's worth for you. If you live check to check, well it's your money! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belac Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 9 minutes ago, Klownicle said: I'm hoping that this set ends up being limited and worth collecting. GOOD: It should be fairly rare. 12 minutes ago, Klownicle said: I've been exploring the thought of investing BAD: You did it backwards for investment purpose. IMO: Just keep it safe and don't open it. Do the seller a favor and don't return it! buy low/ sell high a couple other winner sets and you can earn it from yourself. you'll feel better:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klownicle Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 Just now, Belac said: GOOD: It should be fairly rare. BAD: You did it backwards for investment purpose. IMO: Just keep it safe and don't open it. Do the seller a favor and don't return it! buy low/ sell high a couple other winner sets and you can earn it from yourself. you'll feel better:) Your quote says I said that... I did not... Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belac Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Klownicle said: Your quote says I said that... I did not... Lol HA! Meta - quote glitch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klownicle Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 (edited) Of a 188 auctions currently available to catalog from eBay. Disco Stu is winning. (no specific details, just auctions completed or active). Stu appears to have listed all 10 today. Edited July 29, 2020 by Klownicle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nolan808 Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 I wonder how much he ended up with lol. It's a hard decision on whether or not to break Argos limits. I also wonder how many Argos actually had, I've heard of lots of errors with there system from the go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klownicle Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 (edited) Because data collecting is fun! (Corrected) Edited July 29, 2020 by Klownicle 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebrickdad Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, Klownicle said: Because data collecting is fun! Realistically, it should ignore "today: But I'm lazy. Today avg selling price sold spiked because someone listed for 10k USD and accepted a best offer, no idea what that best offer was. It's amazing how you can track future sales... August? 😕 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klownicle Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 (edited) 14 minutes ago, thebrickdad said: It's amazing how you can track future sales... August? 😕 TRUE... Lmao. The month apparently was starting with 00... :-x. There I fixed. Edited July 29, 2020 by Klownicle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedron Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 Whats peoples plans for saturday, to get up early or stay up late? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joneyyy1981 Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 On 7/28/2020 at 12:54 AM, H3ssian said: None the less this is going to be interesting turn of events rolling out in the next week, if prices plummet due to supply, I'm sure there will be a few issues with people that sold them on ebay for huge returns. this is going to be a huge problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nolan808 Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 35 minutes ago, Tedron said: Whats peoples plans for saturday, to get up early or stay up late? Go to bed like normal and pray 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrSam Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 4 hours ago, Klownicle said: Because data collecting is fun! (Corrected) Interesting stats, thanks. Will be an interesting week indeed! The number of auctions being listed is definitely slowing down again. Is that due to a decrease in supply, or people being strategic about when to sell? Let's be honest, it could all change in the next 48 hours anyway 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergei316 Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 Here is a full breakdown of all sales on eBay (PDF) As of 07/29/2020 16:40 (PST) 113 sets sold 81 currently listed $139,152.67 (USD) Avg: $1,245.91 9USD) Lego42113_Sales.pdf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klownicle Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 Just now, Sergei316 said: Here is a full breakdown of all sales on eBay (PDF) As of 07/29/2020 16:40 (PST) 113 sets sold 81 currently listed $139,152.67 (USD) Avg: $1,245.91 9USD) Lego42113_Sales.pdf 393.8 kB · 2 downloads That jives with what I see, been tracking for a smidge longer. eBay has started to delete older listings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergei316 Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 "SOLD" data should be available for 30 days. I though so anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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