10188 - UCS: Death Star

[trekgate502]

Every Long Term Investor should be buying the 10188 Death Star whenever you have the money, when it does retire its not going to take 3 years or longer to reach $800 or more, The Death Star price will rise fast. Look at all the guys who said it would take 3-5 years for the SSD to be a money maker. So everybody who who missed the boat on the SSD don't make the same mistake on the DS.How many people on here are regreting not buying these, I am sure there are plenty. "So Buy those DS"

 

I love how emazers on occasion swoops in for a profound statement and then quietly exits.  I agree with your thoughts.

[Ed Mack]

The 10188 is a tricky set to figure out.  It is probably one of the more popular LEGO sets in LEGO history due to its long retail life.  There are plenty in existence, yet many might be opened and played with.  It is pricey at $400, yet an excellent value to part out.  It will probably appreciate very well when retired, but who really knows when that will happen.  It is showing signs of retiring, but we all know it can stick around for another 2 years.  It is the set that every STAR WARS LEGO fan should own, but many are afraid to buy one.  

[toycrazedchris]

For me, the DS is iconic because of the scenes that took place in the movie. I think that is what makes 10188 so special and the only way I see them remaking this set with all the ep IV scenes included would be to use newer building techniques.

 

I think an appearance of a new DS in a movie would result in Lego producing something completely different. There would be no reason for them to add all the scenes from episode 4 in a newer model. I think the 10188 should remain unique and highly desirable despite what happens in future episodes.

[BrickLegacy]

Well, some people got these at 30% discounts not long ago *Hint* BN

 

Yes, but that was a short window of opportunity only available to a select few with a DS at their BN and a store that didn't read their own coupons.  I can't imagine that many people picked these up at a high enough volume to make a difference.

 

I've heard anecdotal stories of people getting these at discounts several years back when TLG allowed that sort of thing.  I'm just wondering if they are still holding onto these.  If I had an Edsal shelf full of Death Stars and they have been sitting there for over 2 years, and it still isn't retired, I might start to question my strategy on that one.  If space and capital are unlimited, then maybe it's a different story.  But those types of investors are in a league of their own anyways.

[c666187]

If it is on the internet, it has to be true!

[Neosphinx]

I disagree, a higher dollar amount in "Perceived" value is not the same in Real value or purchase power.  We are not currently in a period that I for see.  That being said the luxury market (LEGO included) has done very well.  This is due to other issues.  When the underlying currency that people base their lives on crumbles, they won't be buying LEGO.  This is of course my own opinion.  I desperately hope that I am wrong, for mine and my children's sake.  I don't think I am, and most people will be blindsided and crushed when it happens.

 

Did you account for the new economic powers? I agree that the economy will change.  Capitalism fails. My view is that we tend to go more to a micro instead of macro economy but the luxury market will keep on strong unless some crazy ass Mao conquers the world and decides to build little ovens in front of every hut.

[Cashmoney-0]

For me, the DS is iconic because of the scenes that took place in the movie. I think that is what makes 10188 so special and the only way I see them remaking this set with all the ep IV scenes included would be to use newer building techniques.

 

I think an appearance of a new DS in a movie would result in Lego producing something completely different. There would be no reason for them to add all the scenes from episode 4 in a newer model. I think the 10188 should remain unique and highly desirable despite what happens in future episodes.

This brings up another good point. All the kids who watch the new movies will tell their parents they want the new DS, not the old one. It will not take Lego long to make a new DS if it's in the new movies, they will be a over that. So then what happens to the thousands of 10188 DS investors are holding onto, they will sell them to the small market of adult collectors who are looking for that type of DS, and most of the adults will want the 10143. 

 

Lego knows what they are doing, if they needed to pull the DS from the shelves to make room for other products, it would have lasted for the average 2-3 years, but no, Lego knows that the DS is making bank, and they will continuously be selling them. The SSD uses specialized pieces while the DS uses the cheaper more standardized pieces, so they aren't going out on a limb to make this product either.  

 

I hope people have also been reading my other posts on this matter. Come this December as the retail stores sell out of DS, and people investors are still going to think this set is going to retire, that will be the prime time to sell. 

[stephen_rockefeller]

I respectfully disagree with this as I think most will.......the first signs of retirement or shortly after retirement is not the time to sell these huge iconic sets.

[Cashmoney-0]

The reasons I gave make sense. But yeah people will not agree with and I may be wrong. But people are constantly saying nothing but good things about this set and the points I iterated should probably be noted.

[speedpro50]

I hope people have also been reading my other posts on this matter. Come this December as the retail stores sell out of DS, and people investors are still going to think this set is going to retire, that will be the prime time to sell. 

 

I think your insight is spot on. I have a hefty DS inventory and hope to off-load some as Christmas approaches. 

[johnwray]

Let us see what Google has to say:

death star - About 221,000,000 results (0.32 seconds)

millennium falcon - About 8,180,000 results (0.31 seconds)

 

The death star in its current form will go away, it has to. The figs are outdated, the price point is outdated and look at the box. There will come a time were it is no longer an economic advantage to Lego to continue to keep it on the shelf. I would be surprised if it was still around at this point next year

 

The words "death" and "star" independently make up almost all of those hits. Let's try...

 

"death star": About 1,890,000 results (0.24 seconds) 

"x-wing": About 2,030,000 results (0.51 seconds) 

"darth vader": About 6,580,000 results (0.35 seconds) 

 

So, there you go.

[Cashmoney-0]

The words "death" and "star" independently make up almost all of those hits. Let's try...

"death star": About 1,890,000 results (0.24 seconds)

"x-wing": About 2,030,000 results (0.51 seconds)

"darth vader": About 6,580,000 results (0.35 seconds)

So, there you go.

The point I'm trying to make is the DS was the focal point of episodes 4and 6. It is probably more iconic and recognizable that's all.

[GhostDad]

The point I'm trying to make is the DS was the focal point of episodes 4and 6. It is probably more iconic and recognizable that's all.

Can't really argue with this.  A giant chunk of Ep. IV and somewhat smaller chunk of Ep. VI were filmed "on" a Death Star.  The SSD (for example) had vastly less screen time.  There is more to the story, though.  10144 did very well a few years after EOL, and the sandcrawler (like the SSD!) mostly just showed up and then got blown up.  Fans don't necessarily direct their focus and $$$ to the vehicles that get the most screen time.  I'm a big fan 10188.  But factors like screen time have to be put in perspective (as I learned the hard way with 10221, an ugly hunk of gray plastic that fans seem to love just the same).

[GhostDad]

I disagree, a higher dollar amount in "Perceived" value is not the same in Real value or purchase power.  We are not currently in a period that I for see.  That being said the luxury market (LEGO included) has done very well.  This is due to other issues.  When the underlying currency that people base their lives on crumbles, they won't be buying LEGO.  This is of course my own opinion.  I desperately hope that I am wrong, for mine and my children's sake.  I don't think I am, and most people will be blindsided and crushed when it happens.

If you read my post, you can see that I distinguish between real and nominal returns.  My point is simply that the top, say, 20% of our economy (which I would imagine includes just about everyone who ever pays over MSRP for retired lego sets) will do fine regardles of overall economic conditions.  For the middle and bottom, life will steadily get worse, but that is not relevant to Lego investing, since those folks are not buyers of 2 x MSRP retired multi-hundred dollar lego sets.  I'm not disagreeing with your economic predictions for the future (US and worldwide), only pointing out that historically the upper-middle and upper classes (who are our customers) generally weather hard times pretty well.

[brickinator5000]

I think your insight is spot on. I have a hefty DS inventory and hope to off-load some as Christmas approaches. 

I've been investing in Lego for a couple years now and have started to really get into these threads. I agree with cashmoney and hope to strengthen his argument. I have five Death Stars and plan on selling all of them this Christmas. People keep on comparing the Death Star to the Super Star Destroyer and I want to raise a couple points that cashmoney has already began to do. The Super Star Destroyer set design used special made pieces that are hard for Lego to make. The Death Star on the other hand uses easy to make pieces and Lego will not stress themselves if they continue to make these pieces. I see no problem with Lego continuing to make this set for even another six years to come. Everything he's said so far I've agreed with. 

[Darth_Raichu]

Yes, but that was a short window of opportunity only available to a select few with a DS at their BN and a store that didn't read their own coupons.  I can't imagine that many people picked these up at a high enough volume to make a difference.

 

I've heard anecdotal stories of people getting these at discounts several years back when TLG allowed that sort of thing.  I'm just wondering if they are still holding onto these.  If I had an Edsal shelf full of Death Stars and they have been sitting there for over 2 years, and it still isn't retired, I might start to question my strategy on that one.  If space and capital are unlimited, then maybe it's a different story.  But those types of investors are in a league of their own anyways.

I thought emazers was driving from BN to BN picking up DS and R2 then.

I doubt you would get an answer to your question, as much as anyone like to brag online, it is doubtful anyone would admit failure publicly. (Well some never admit failure privately either.. )

[Neosphinx]

If you read my post, you can see that I distinguish between real and nominal returns.  My point is simply that the top, say, 20% of our economy (which I would imagine includes just about everyone who ever pays over MSRP for retired lego sets) will do fine regardles of overall economic conditions.  For the middle and bottom, life will steadily get worse, but that is not relevant to Lego investing, since those folks are not buyers of 2 x MSRP retired multi-hundred dollar lego sets.  I'm not disagreeing with your economic predictions for the future (US and worldwide), only pointing out that historically the upper-middle and upper classes (who are our customers) generally weather hard times pretty well.

Times change. Principle doesn't. More and more people see that money on the banc is not working and how fragile our capitalism is with the example of Lehman Brothers that held the world economy hostage. No longer, you save money by letting it sleep in a banc. You can still sell lego, but only you'll have 1/5 or more of your 'clients' from China in 2018 and growing from that moment on until you will sell most to Chinese and India middle class. That combined with sites like ebay trying to wring you like a lemon more and more, It will be lot more of a hassle to sell lego so I understand waddamon's choice.

[trekgate502]

Long Live The Death Star, may you retire soon and reap those who love this set many profits.

[johnwray]

I'll bet a 10188 vs another 10188 that there will be no Death Star in the new movies.

 

There were complaints that Lucas was recycling the Death Star threat in Return of the Jedi (I agree) and the new movies will have new threats--stuff we've never seen before. Filmmakers are creative people, and the Star Wars movies are golden opportunities to think up cool stuff. Plus, who would build a new DS? Not the Republic because it was a dark symbol of "ultimate power in the galaxy". And the broken Empire? Nope, because the DS was the Emperor's pet project, and got blown up twice already.

 

We're going to see a lot of sweet new stuff. Yes, there will be some returning characters, but they will have changed dramatically in the 40 years since the Battle of Endor. Same goes with the few returning ships like the Falcon. It was a "piece of junk" that broke down a half-dozen times in the first trilogy, so what's it going to be like 40 years later? It will be an aging ship that has probably been kept in storage given Solo's responsibilities as a General of the New Republic. Maybe he's kept it polished in his garage like a classic car, but I doubt it. There will probably be a few old ships like the Star Destroyers that have been repurposed for use in the New Republic just because they were really expensive, but when it comes to Star Wars Lego, we're going to see entirely new ships on the shelves next year.

[Cashmoney-0]

Long Live The Death Star

You got that part right, it will be around for many many moons. It's nice to see that there's a couple of other people on here who also think the same as me.

[Ciglione]

One clue/sign that speaks for the chance that the Death Star will not retire for at least one year:

 

The little set 75034 Death Star Troopers. It fits nicely with the Death Star. What would be the value of this little set if there was nothing to use/combine it with?

 

Please tell me if I am crazy or talking sense. 

[johnwray]

One clue/sign that speaks for the chance that the Death Star will not retire for at least one year:

 

The little set 75034 Death Star Troopers. It fits nicely with the Death Star. What would be the value of this little set if there was nothing to use/combine it with?

 

Please tell me if I am crazy or talking sense. 

 

I think you overestimate the number of people buying it to use with a Death Star. Very very few kids have a 10188.

[Cashmoney-0]

One clue/sign that speaks for the chance that the Death Star will not retire for at least one year:

 

The little set 75034 Death Star Troopers. It fits nicely with the Death Star. What would be the value of this little set if there was nothing to use/combine it with?

 

Please tell me if I am crazy or talking sense. 

Now that you mention it I think Lego always tries to match their battle packs to match their other sets. Look at the Battle of Endor Battle Pack.

[Ciglione]

I think you overestimate the number of people buying it to use with a Death Star. Very very few kids have a 10188.

 

No... I do not overestimate. I am just saying... if there is no death star... what do you do with the death star troopers set? It is kinda useless. Also... I noticed that this little set sells really well. A shop I always go to, Which is accesable only for limited persons had at least 20 sets of these. They were all sold in a few weeks. I only bought one.

[Cashmoney-0]

I think you overestimate the number of people buying it to use with a Death Star. Very very few kids have a 10188.

The battle packs are a ploy for kids to ask for the bigger sets. Have a $13.00 battle pack entice kids to want the $400 Death Stars and the other big sets. It's so they can nag.