79018 - The Lonely Mountain

[Brian Briggs]

LEGO started their 30%-off sale today which included all Hobbit sets. With the exception of 79016 (Attack on Lake-town) everything was gone when I checked their site again this afternoon. I'm glad I stayed up and grabbed a Lonely Mountain set shortly after midnight.

[Ed Mack]

Well, I just did a run through the sites.  Seems that a majority of the sites are getting lower on stock with the DoS sets that are now nearing 2 years.   Skipping the TRU site, only MEA and DGB can be found, and only at amazon and S&H.  They are gone everywhere else..  The Bot5A sets are still around on almost every site.  So, i'd expect there's a few weeks left, but anything can happen when people realize the end is near, and they taste blood in the waters.  Many of us that are hobbit/LOTR fans expected both lines to retire this year, so this isn't too far out of the norm that it's starting to occur heading into July.  I always sort of assumed these would be gone between the time Jurassic World came out, and before Scooby Doo appears.  We'll see if that happens.

I have similar feelings on the topic.  One thing to remember about the LOTR and Hobbit sets is that it is a licensed theme, so time will run out on the license agreement and LEGO won't extend production regardless of sales.

Edited June 24, 2015 by Ed Mack

[@rtisan]

I would guess that these will be retired at some point in 2015, seems like too long to have sets sticking around into 2016 for this theme. The Hobbit craze of 3 years has quieted down now, but there will still be interest into the Holiday season (extended edition box set should be out around then). My guess is they are being fazed out now, and should be gone any time before end of the year, maybe quicker, but I just can`t see them sticking around into 2016 at the very latest. As always, if you want sets for personal use and don`t want to miss out, sooner is usually better to buy. 

[Darth_Raichu]

I would guess that these will be retired at some point in 2015, seems like too long to have sets sticking around into 2016 for this theme. The Hobbit craze of 3 years has quieted down now, but there will still be interest into the Holiday season (extended edition box set should be out around then). My guess is they are being fazed out now, and should be gone any time before end of the year, maybe quicker, but I just can`t see them sticking around into 2016 at the very latest. As always, if you want sets for personal use and don`t want to miss out, sooner is usually better to buy. 

I must have missed the craze.  All I saw was tons Hobbit sets sitting on shelves at Targets, until they put 30-50% off clearance stickers.  My money is on re-sellers scooping all those discounted sets.

[Wrothgar]

Found one at my lego Store near Paris, despite the 30% off it was still at 100$.

I didn't picked it, it looked so off... The dragon isn't well designed, the set is more a spreadtoast ("this and that" set) than a proper architectural concept.

It tries to cater to childrens by being a playset but the hobbit is clearly a AFOL theme.

Couldn't figure what audience this set tried to cater to, so i bought the 76022 sentinel set instead

[denosya]

Note that 10237 Orthanc Tower is still available.

[@rtisan]

I must have missed the craze.  All I saw was tons Hobbit sets sitting on shelves at Targets, until they put 30-50% off clearance stickers.  My money is on re-sellers scooping all those discounted sets.

Haha, yeah, was gritting my back teeth whilst writing that. More like semi-Hobbit-craze. AKA, Hobbit sized craze 

Edited June 25, 2015 by @rtisan

[Cross]

Wrothgar... I agree that most of the set is a hodge-podge, but disagree on their design of Smaug. To each their own on this one, but the picture on the box does the actual Smaug no justice once assembled/built. He's killer. LOTR and Lego Castle folks will always find the Smaug figure appealing.

It's a shame Lego made the only avenue to owning Smaug well over a hundred dollars.

[ravenb99]

Wrothgar... I agree that most of the set is a hodge-podge, but disagree on their design of Smaug. To each their own on this one, but the picture on the box does the actual Smaug no justice once assembled/built. He's killer. LOTR and Lego Castle folks will always find the Smaug figure appealing.

It's a shame Lego made the only avenue to owning Smaug well over a hundred dollars.

Dang where have you been??  Haven't seen your name pop up in awhile!

[speedsausage]

Wrothgar... I agree that most of the set is a hodge-podge, but disagree on their design of Smaug. To each their own on this one, but the picture on the box does the actual Smaug no justice once assembled/built. He's killer. LOTR and Lego Castle folks will always find the Smaug figure appealing.

It's a shame Lego made the only avenue to owning Smaug well over a hundred dollars.

Agreed! The only reason I bought this set is because of the pic you posted sometime back with Smaug on top of T. of Orthanc.

[Wrothgar]

My disagreement is with Smaug's upper limbs parts, it's way too thin and undefined especially the wing shoulder joints and "wing fingers"  parts. Tail is too thin too compared to the body.

The artistic version is congruent proportion wise. Lego smaug can definitely be improved

[JM123]

But Lego probably won't ever produce such a large dragon again. Be glad you have to spend well over 100 dollars, it makes that large dragon figure even more desirable in the future due to less hoarding. I'm buying these sets (I'm in Europe), paying 115 euro for it on average.. one day I will be glad I did. Think it's pretty rare and big time opportunity that such a large and unique set will be retired after just half a year.

[Locutus001]

But Lego probably won't ever produce such a large dragon again. Be glad you have to spend well over 100 dollars, it makes that large dragon figure even more desirable in the future due to less hoarding. I'm buying these sets (I'm in Europe), paying 115 euro for it on average.. one day I will be glad I did. Think it's pretty rare and big time opportunity that such a large and unique set will be retired after just half a year.

Why shouldn't they?

The previous dragons have become larger and larger till Smaug came.

I can totally see at least a reappearance of that particular lego mold.

[CNH1974]

I checked the UK site yesterday, the hobbit theme was empty of sets. The LOTR theme only had Orthanc listed. As available. Rumours, suggest this may be around for a while. I say rumours because it's what I heard from a lego store employee. 

I bought one from amazon.fr yesterday for €126.50 incl postage to the UK. It worked out to £93.50, so 6% off UK RRP. 

Its still available to anyone who wants to stock up. 

[JM123]

Why shouldn't they?

The previous dragons have become larger and larger till Smaug came.

I can totally see at least a reappearance of that particular lego mold.

Well, you are right.. perhaps the body & tail mold, but I think certainly not the nasty and detailed head of Smaug. That mold should be specifically made to imitate Smaug, don't think we'll see another dragon with a similar head again.

[Frank Brickowski]

Today I received 2 packages from the EU sale. Inside of each package were 3 Lonely Mountains in original Lego shipping box. Seal Codes 05S5. A tiny 8 months of market presence - this Smaug set is literally gonna burn investment-wise, even over here in Europe... at least I hope so.

[Val-E]

Good heavens, your postman is efficient!

[Ciglione]

I was weak... just ordered 3 of these.

[denosya]

I was weak... just ordered 3 of these.

Because of you, I have just bought 2 more... (119.90€ on amazon.fr)

[Val-E]

This is not going to end well......

[gregpj]

This is not going to end well......

You mean it won't end like this?

[CNH1974]

This is not going to end well......

sorry, I should  not have mentioned it...... 

[Val-E]

Well, a quick ebay search shows that there are multiples of these in the hands of the usual Lego sellers but the positive would seem to be that none are selling below RRP anymore.

I really have doubts about this one at full price buy-in due to the extremely limited appeal of the theme in Europe, but the people who got them at 30% off or more should do just fine as the usual panic buying post EOL among resellers pushes it up to around 200. What it does after that is anyone´s guess.

[Wrothgar]

If you successfully hoarded HH and FB before they went up... What would be your preconisation?

Stack or slack? Maybe the sellers price cohesion may get this one up after all?

[Val-E]

This set isn´t comparable to either as it is not a modular building, exclusive, nor does it have the same price point.

If, anything there can be more comparisons to a set like the Vampyre Castle - not very popular theme, easy to find set but with some redeeming features. Unfortunately the Hobbit range is missing a Haunted House type flagship to boost interest and collectibility.

The risk with Hobbit stuff is that the first wave of sets only retired recently so there is not enough data to go on regarding real secondary market demand.

The movies are done so there won´t be another kick up in demand based on hype (apart from that some sets were only out for half a year).

Hobbit doesn´t have the same general appeal as SW or even non licensed sets like the modulars.

It is very overpriced based on piece count (I know that the dragon is the main feature  like Rancor in the pit)

Going back to the Vampyre Castle comparison, people are making good money on that set now if they bought in at below retail but it isn´t a great investment.

This one could follow that path in the short term because there are too many already in the hands of resellers (as a rule of thumb, it´s a bad sign when the product thread on this forum has a lot of pages of speculation and content before retirement) and places like Amazon still have stock, but noone can say what will happen in 2-3 years. It´s a risk to invest big time in this one but I guess there is nothing much else to buy right now.