Sergei316

Some updated sales numbers as of 22:22 EST... Sets Sold: 176 Sets active for sale: 94 Total Sales: $208,421.73 (USD) Avg Sale Price: $1,184.21 Average BIN and AUCT prices continue to fall What do you think the total sets available will be? 500? 1000? Lego42113_0801.pdf

Thanks. Part count only on US sold boxes?

Listing from the US?? Is this legit set from the US? https://www.ebay.com/itm/Lego-42113-V-22-Boeing-Osprey/392892801122?hash=item5b7a3c6062:g:C8MAAOSwZ8ZfJGdb

If the set is scarce and or rare, I could see prices exceed $2000 in 12 months. That means very little eBay activity over the 12 months,

I look at everything more short term then long term. If I have to hold a set for 24+ months to maximize my returns then my annualized return on investment drops significantly. I have a set point for AROI that must be met to make collecting/investing really worth while.

WhY?

I believe so. Currently, sets are averaging just over $1100 (data from 07/30) per set. If the market does get flooded, which it most likely will if sets are available at retail on 08/01, then prices will decline. At that point, I would wait to see how low it goes and how many sets are available for purchase before committing to buy any more sets. On the other hand, if sets are relatively scarce on 08/01, I think sets will gradually climb over the next few weeks and months. At what price point I am not sure. That will be determined by the buyers. My projections: A) If sets are scarce/rare, I could see prices eclipse $1500-$2000 per set over the next 4 to 6 months based on condition of set, B.) If sets are readily available, prices will plummet and believe $350-$500 per set would become the more practical price point. This is based solely on market availability.

No hope in my opinion.

If the US does not get any sets, which is probably the case, then collectors/investors from the US will buy at high prices. Guaranteed. Will it be higher than "todays" prices is the question.

I think it represents that the panic buying is subsiding. I would tend to believe that if eBay is not flooded with sets in the next 24 hours prices MAY climb. We know that there are, at this moment, 224 sets that have been sold and listed on eBay. If we see the number of available sets to purchase double (160+) over the next 24 hours, prices will start to decline. My biggest question to everyone is, what is considered "RARE" in the Lego world? 1000? 2500?

July 30, 2020 complete sales data. Sets Sold: 143 Sales: $ 175,000.54 Average Sale: $ 1223.78 Selling prices for both BIN and AUCT are trending downward over the last few days. Lego42113_Sales_0730.pdf

People are selling the sets for what people are willing to pay. I myself have bought several at very high prices. Most people are buying this set at these prices for investment/collecting, not to build. A seller sets a price, a buyer buys at said price. I do not understand how you can be upset with sellers who are trying to maximize their return. The sellers I bought from didn’t twist my arm to buy the set. I have no desire to build any LEGO set I buy. The gear issue would not stop me or most of other 140+ buyers from trying to obtain this set.

Completed 07/29/2020 sales data... 118 sets sold 81 sets listed for sale. $146,079.16 (USD) Avg: $1237.95 (USD) As of 07/30/2020 01:07 EST... Lego42113_Sales_0729.pdf

What is clear when reviewing all the listings is premiums prices are being paid for sets that are listed as MISB (MINT IN SEALED BOX). Most of the AUCT/BIN with MISB are above $1500+ (USD).

Used the average for BIN for sets sold in the UK. UK sellers seem to favor BIN NZ sellers seem to favor AUCT My bad... 16:40 EST... apologies eBay time on SOLD listings is PST

"SOLD" data should be available for 30 days. I though so anyway.

Here is a full breakdown of all sales on eBay (PDF) As of 07/29/2020 16:40 (PST) 113 sets sold 81 currently listed $139,152.67 (USD) Avg: $1,245.91 9USD) Lego42113_Sales.pdf

As of the 07/28/2020 at 14:03 PST, eBay sales: 94 Sets Sold... $118,069.76 (USD) 87 Sets currently listed for sale. Average sale price $1,256.06 (USD) My opinion, move them while you can. Strike while the iron is hot.

It is available now in US

Two 9515's ordered at 12:01... LEGO Shop at Home email update at 1:03... 9515 is OUT OF STOCK

A local store has a few 6863 available at regular price. I know the set is discounted BUT sold out at Shop At Home. Good buy or wait it out for better opportunities???

I have been searching the forum for some information/advice on investing in sealed minifig cases. I have done some research for completed sales on ebay over the last 90 days and I cant decide if the sealed cases are investment winners or losers. Any input appreciated.

Are we talking booze or water?

Savvy... yeah... more like panic... Mind you there is horrible WiFi/cell reception in WM so this is how my mind processed the situation: I have to get home and check with Brickpicker to see what everyone thinks... must explain, no justify to wifey why this set would be good for the portfolio... I don't want to leave them here out in the open... where to put them... I guess I could buy them and bring them back if they are duds... gas... time.. hmm... galaxy squad... there seems to be a few of them here... what if I tuck the sets behind... here... and here... and there. Maybe I should stick to the lego isle... done. That was the situation in a nutshell.

I have never seen a child hide toys in the toy aisle. They usually want to play with all of them and ask to if they can have it. Anyway, I am not an impulse buyer and I like to make sure the product(s) I am investing in are worth my time and money. By the way, by the time I got back they had restocked the shelve (which is odd) with several more sets. I had to explain to wifey why I had more sets then I said I was going to have. BOUGHT THEM ALL!! Thanks again everyone!!