Yes, it's passed on, but not in the way we typically think (price hikes). The forces of supply and demand are strong -- coupled with competition from other Toy companies. Walmart can't just jack up the price and expect the demand to be there. The same thing goes for LEGO, they do have competition, and parents will make tradeoffs.
Here's how I see it affecting the consumer:
1. Inventory is off: most retailers are on an automated replenishment system, so if it thinks it has it in stock (it actually got stolen), it won't trigger the system to replenish -- causing empty shelves and pissed of BP clearance hunters
2. The retailer will reduce the breadth and depth of the assortment to avoid loss (or stop carrying it all together)
3. The retailer will put it behind glass -- causing friction to the consumer
4. The retailer will close down high-risk stores
5. LEGO will offer the retailer rebates for shrink hurting their gross margin: resulting in less profit for LEGO forcing them to cut costs across the board such as R&D, quality standards, and the number of sets created.
When we did our annual cycle counts back in the day, we'd write off 1% for shrink as the cost of doing business. Can't help but think that the average is up to 3% if not higher in some states such as Cali.