I was thinking the same about the $30, but that's only looking at it from one side. I've sold a few Rewards in the past and asked a few questions to my buyers. What I found out is that they see it from another angle -- they would have to spend $615 (for example) on LEGO in order to get enough points to buy this cap. Instead of spending $615, they'd prefer to save money and buy the cap from me directly for much less.
The Reward does say that they'll be releasing more patches for the hat, which concerns me because the patches will be worthless without the hat. Therefore the hat may be overproduced but the following patches to be released may be limited, so those may be worth more.
ps: most AFOLs are complete dorks and love this type of swag. Still, I don't think this would be worth more than $50 and Majisto, a real reward, will be released in November