I'm afraid you might be right and I'm seriously jeopardizing the "Obvious" namesake here. It's more based on hope that my emotional purchases from LEGO direct will be justified.
IRL, I've built my career on a data-driven approach, the same way you pros buy and sell LEGO unemotionally. LEGO is more therapy to me and the career sustains the addiction.
Currently compiling an Excel sheet of my LEGO store and LEGO.com purchases, rewards redeemed, and profit made from selling my Loyalty rewards. It's not looking good at all...
Reality is, in order to get points, you have to buy direct from LEGO which means full retail price. I can't tell you how much it hurts when I go to the "Daily Deals" page on BP only to see the set I just bought from LEGO is selling on Amazon at 20% off. So in order for rewards to be worth it, you have to take into account that 20% loss. Even with my "big win" rewards followed by many "break evens" if not losses, I'm afraid getting the sets at 20% off on Amazon is about par to what you get with the reward profit unless you cherry picked the rewards correctly (I redeem most of the rewards to spread the chips out).
The only way the Loyalty program works out is if you get a very big winner like the Batpod. Stay tuned for the Excel sheet, there's no way to polish that turd. The numbers will speak for themselves. In the meantime, I'm starting to think the Amazon route is the way to go.
The only caveat being, is that you can't control the quality of the box from Amazon which is a big deal to us collectors. That needs to be factored in too when considering the overall profit margin if you were to sell your whole collection tomorrow.