Leaderboard

That's just one letter away from Pure Madness.

Are the turds that you are referring to LEGO sets, or the horde of new sellers? Although I suppose they both could qualify.

Well, I won't image search that one at work.

Stopped at Wally's on my way into work this morning and found 75828 for $25

After the panic buy of SC some 2 months ago , and the never selling out discount on Amazon , I wouldn't be too optimistic .

Do you have kids? That's not how it works. At least not for the people I know. My old Lego is still at my parent's home and my kids play with them when they're there. At home, they have Star Wars, Friends, Chima, Ninjago and Nexo Knights sets.

I like to have some special edition Comic-con sets and I bought the first Batman announcement set on Ebay for $250. Sets like this are extremely hard to get in Europe, so I was happy to get it.

It's a perfect time to trim down the re-sellers. Many are jumping ship and that's fine with me. I'll hold while they dump for 5% gains.

I'm not sure I'd be allowed to post a picture of everyone's butt.

Everything he says sounds like a mating cry so I guess he has a lot of pent up love to spread. IF SW dies then part of Lego will too. They owe their survival to that Licence and let´s face it, it´s not Nexo Knights thats going to have generations sitting down building together in the future.

I didn't feel like spending the 1.5hrs waiting for the employees to return with, "I have no idea?"

The website might be eating itself.

Aaaaand it's gone. (IR in EU)

Things are heating up. All of my grill covers just sold.

The STAR WARS buzz is over. With a new movie every year, that franchise will grow old and tired very quickly and the toys will be less desirable.

Farnsworth house $230 FBM, buy in ~$68 some bat sets $14 FBA, buy in $3 now qualify for holiday toys

Got me a couple more base plates at about ~$1.75 each thanks to points.

It's all perspective. The latest news on the retiring sets was a positive sign to me. At least to me anyway, it indicated more of a "return to normalcy, " with some major exclusives finally retiring, with some surprises mixed in. I really do understand the frustration and negativity, though. With the Death Star debacle, possible remakes and other highly regarded sets still being produced after years, the old methods of buying and stockpiling every exclusive or unique set and waiting for profits is not as "guaranteed" as it once was. Throw in the fact that knockoffs and counterfeits have been inserted into the mix and additional restrictions have been placed on some sellers, there are many reasons to be down on the market. Even I have not been buying as much as I used to. I just cannot keep up with all the new sets being produced annually and I just don't have the space to keep them. While I fear a declining market, I also fear that even though the market is in the doldrums lately, a few (or more) of these retiring sets will explode in growth and I didn't invest heavily in them. In a way, the negativity around here will benefit those with patience and deep pockets and the fortitude to remain in the game. If more people get of of the LEGO reselling business, the more the ones who remain in it will prosper. The next several months will be good indicator of where this market is. A good Christmas season could change the outlook dramatically and attract more people into the mix and on the flip side, a bad one will only dampen the mood further and force more people out. Either way, it could be viewed differently. Good short term growth could be bad for long term investors and visa versa. Everybody on these forums wants the market to be a strong one, but a "thinning of the herd" might be best for the overall long term viability of the LEGO secondary market. We also have to realize we are own worst enemy by extending retirement dates by stockpiling sets. LEGO retires sets quickly that don't sell and will extend production of sets indefinitely that do. Maybe a "down market" will force LEGO to retire more exclusives sooner than later. It should be a very interesting 2017...

LEGO is an odd bird - As a family owned company, their motivations/goals are not as straightforward as one might expect.

Here's an example... Just going by Star Wars sets (combined polybags, sets, buildables, microfighters, etc) - in 2011 - 33 sets, in 2013 it jumped up to 44, in 2015 - 65, and this year is 67. Next year 42 are now slated, which i'm sure will eventually go up into the 60's. This is prime example of where they need to scale back. It's evident to me they are producing too much - and the market is oversaturated. Granted, I get there are new movies, but truly less is more in this case. Yet, we enter into 2017 with another landspeeder, another desert skiff, another set with qui-gon, obi and maul.. All of those are unnecessary. And I see no future potential with any of them as an investment..

Of course "sure things" led to too many resellers in search of the great gold rush. I'm happy the horde herd is being culled a little. I do feel for those for whom this is a primary livelihood, though.

I am also quite sated. I wish I could be excited about the soon to be retiring sets - I just know/expect that they will then be spending the next year or two sitting with the other retired sets, mostly failing to achieve substantial gains. I suppose that it's great if you are just looking to get a few bucks profit, but to me - I just see piles and piles of disappointment. What I would find exciting would be to miss out on a set, to be able to say how I should have known to load up on a set, and regret not doing it. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening - but I would really love to be wrong.

If you're looking for Baseplates for your LEGO city: KMart - 10700 Classic Green Baseplate - $5.75 (28% off) I have various silly coupons in my account ($1 off $5, $4 off $20, $5 off $60 (why?)) so you can get this lower, especially if you buy in volume.

We all were. How could you not be back then with mscheaf and hcxkid in our collective lives.

Santas Workshop $54.89 on Amazon. 22% off.

Winner, winner chicken dinner. Although, it's a razor's edge for Lego. They can, in part, charge high prices for their product because of perceived value. Oversaturation damages value perception.

You'll always get all kinds of help on BP!

Yup. It's Disclosure. A tune called You & Me. Great tune and great Album.

Here here! I'm in the same mindset. It's really disappointing as I like some of the sets like EV, SC, and PS, along with themes like The Force Awakens, Scooby, and JW, but I just can't pull the trigger on buying anymore. And I think we aren't alone, because here in the States we are not seeing a large phase out yet. Many of these retiring sets are still sitting around on many sites, and we know they are retiring thanks to the notifications in Europe - yet the swarm of buying out all of the stock isn't happening, so I think a lot of people see the writing on the wall. The signs are showing that the days of reselling lego and making more than 2x back are nearing their end. Previous years, I would purchase a lot of sets around this time of year. This year, i'm not adding a single set to my investment portfolio over the next few months. I'll reconvene in april during the next round of clearance, but until then, i'm just selling what I already have in my stock...most of which is already retired. I think as I sell it off, i'm not going to put the profits back into lego this go around.

So let me get this straight, we've learned this morning that you have principles and you are not all about greed.

I forgot which was which so took both. It was the only way to be sure... Also, and maybe I'm really missing something, but a search for "retiring soon" on shop.lego.com (US) does not show any of the mentioned exclusives or ideas sets retiring. Neither do the individual item pages. Are we just guessing here, or what? Ok, I see: You have to be Dutch to see the "retiring soon" tag. Even then, it doesn't show on the individual item pages. I still think it's probably accurate given the sets that are tagged. Whether this marks the end of these sets in the US is going to depend on the appetite of the US Horde. My personal appetite is mostly sated, though I'm happy to see Pet Shop and Ewok Village buy the farm, as they say...

2 Obi Wans Jedi Starfighter On sale for $20.58 @ Kmart - 8,000 Surprise points ($8 off $30 or more) -13,500 Regular Points $10.50 each Added to the growing stack of these I have! I love SYW!

Yeah, because last year, everyone did that too, and none of the exclusives are doing much out of the gates. Sure, you could sell your red 5s and make about a 10% return, but overall most of those sets have hit a wall compared to previous years. Expecting this years crop to perform better than last year? Well, then some might have taken the blue pill, but I choose to be more realistic. I do think some sets HAVE potential, don't get me wrong. Lego will retire hundreds of sets, and of those maybe a handful (like 10) will do something interesting and make people money. But, that's a lot of hit and miss that keeps getting a larger ratio every year. In the end the sets everyone thinks are going to do well, will in turn be horded by more and more people since others will be thinking they have the next 3x set, and in the end the oversaturation of resellers will cause it to stagnate and not even hit last years levels. So, am I excited that Ecto1, or Pet Shop is retiring? Not really. I love the Pet Shop, don't get me wrong... it's a fun build, and a beautiful set to look at when done. But, so many have them waiting to resell them, and if you judge from the previous modulars that went out into retirement, well while they have doubled in price over a two year period, there's no saying that the Pet Shop is going to perform better than GE, or the FB! More than likely it wont. More than likely it will take 3 to 4 years to reach that level, and after fees and shipping (which goes up every year), whose to say by the time it finally does hit the 300.00 US mark, that it will net the same gain that selling a GE would during the same time frame. More than likely it won't. At that point you are holding large sets that take up a lot of space, and making less and less money as each year goes on.

Yeah, great discount that I unfortunately missed because I was busy today. But don't be so sure about this set not going to retire in 2016. It follows the same pattern that 75054 AT-AT and 75055 ISD followed last year: heavily discounted in September through November, then stock dried up everywhere and suddenly they were retired (in Europe first, in USA later). I remember seeing the AT-AT set everywhere discounted to €99,99 and thinking: if this set is so widely available, how can it become profitable in the near future? And it's one of the highlights now of the retiring-batch of 2015 !

PC for $111. T1 for $82 DO for $112 What does your gut tell you?

Don't forget TRURP

LEGO Marvel Super Heroes 76042 The SHIELD Helicarrier 3rd party no tax on amazon right now for $299 https://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Marvel-Heroes-SHIELD-Helicarrier/dp/B00NHQFMKM/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1477508723&sr=8-1&keywords=lego+shield

I am retired from investing but I have blown a grand on sets already this month because the offers have been so good it would have been rude to refuse. Let´s hope I have been wise with my choices. Chewie would probably mount it.

I'm in a dilemma, I'm not sure what to do when they start clearancing these?

I'll take two sets please!

That was pretty damn impressive since the background music cuts in and out with some silly Germans talking over it too. Nice!

Exactly. LEGO has to walk a fine line if they want to keep pushing more product and ask higher prices. We are already seeing significant discounts for new sets right out of the gate and exclusive sets being discounted for the first time in years. Buyers will continue to be wary of making purchases when they see a consistent pattern of retreads and retailers will be forced to make further reductions on lingering inventory which will lead to lower volume orders.

It is no secret this was a big downyear for TLG. Dimensions did not pan out like they had hoped and there was no new movie. This was the worst sales year they have had in a long, long time. Retailers are scrambling to discount to move product. The new SW movies are not generating merchandise sales like many companies had hoped for. It is just a different consumer market today than it was back in the 80s. There will be no article about Lego shortages this year lol. I think the Lego Batman movie is going to be huge and make Lego relevant again in 2017. I really think they knocked it out of the park with those new Batman movie sets. I think Assembly Square is going to generate alot of new fans for the modular line and even those sets getting a cameo in Assembly Square. TLG understand where they went wrong but it is not an easy ship to turn around quickly. Next year we are getting the rehashed UCS snowspeeder and ISD so SW is going to suck yet again at least until 2018. I really hope the new fairground set rumors are false but we will have to wait and see. As resellers we will want to be ultra selective on what to buy and the price the next 2-3 years. I think when TLG comes out on the other side they and us are going to be very profitable again. I will go deep on 1 or 2 sets the next 2-3 years but that is it. Diversify into other toy brands and categories to keep cash flow going but Lego will be back I am confident of it

I paid RRP for several. Doh!

41060 Disney Princess Sleeping Beauty's Royal Bedroom I'm guessing you missed that?

From people like me, yes. From normal people, not so much.

Some may (and should) perform well, but most likely won't. Many "sure things" have failed - so being lucky and picking the right sets (you do need luck at this point, much more than you need smarts) will not outweigh the majority of fails. You are going to have many sellers who would have normally waited to sell at higher prices - no longer believe that things could get any better. Saying to themselves: