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I am no longer confident in long term holding of this company's products. After the Toy Shop and 10188 fiasco it is clear nothing is out of bounds. This company is either hell bent on destroying the secondary market or is completely clueless. In either scenario the risk of long term holding just went through the roof. I will be selling my UCS Falcon. Grand Carousels, Tajs and Eiffel Towers this shopping season. I love my collectibles, but I love my money even more. Already scaled back my buying this year to just 10% of what I did in 2015 and 5% of 2014, and it will be even less in 2017. Once I sell my 2014 stash in a few years I dumping that into rental properties and sticking to scummy quick flip practices within the return window for Lego products. There are quite a few here in the Northwest who are cutting back big time as well. I will still enjoy building a set from time to time but as investment material it just got downgraded heavily by me. Lego is printing way too many pieces these days for my liking and is clearly out of touch with the secondary market. They will still make their billions, just not at my expense.

Left the pc on and did some stuff. Came back to this.

Totally anecdotal, but, I was talking to a friend that runs one of the Star Wars Lego Facebook groups. This guy is a serious SW Lego collector. He's trying to get one of every single SW set ever produced (he's down to less than 10, I think). One of the other admins on the group is down to SW Lego sets to complete the "I've got one of every set produced." The first guy said he's not picking up the new DS. Felt like he'd been kicked in the nuts. The second guy said he's out. That's he's not only not picking up the new DS, but he's also going to liquidate a bunch of his SW sets. He's only going to keep a few sets that he truly loves, and everything else is gone now. Again, felt like he'd been kicked in the nuts, too.

10 more minutes and it could've been this...

What needs to be also considered is the superstar effect. When people want to buy stuff they have rankings and limited budget. Let's say our run of the mill AFOL is into D2C sets. He awakens from his dark dreams and finds himself facing a plethora of retired and current sets. A list of facts first: There are more exclusives in production than ever. Their average quality is higher than ever. There are (obviously) more retired sets than ever. People need space. More investors than ever. So let's say George has room for 10 sets. He buys all 6 he likes from the current ones, since they are cheaper, easier to access and have a high quality. Then he has room for 4 more. Conditionally on his budget he will establish a list of still affordable retired sets. He will pick the top 4 on that list. When LEGO investing became big, there were only a few really desirable sets. The chances that the same sets were on top of people's list was higher AND for a given set the chance to be a superstar (being on top of people's lists on average) was also much higher. Now there are plenty of sets. These days demand has to be dispersed across a much broader selection of potential sets to acquire, however there is only room for a handful of 'superstars'. Those are the winners. Plus, the higher number of sets in production means people will run out later from retail purchases and turn to retired sets. The fast rate of releases and longer life cycles ensures that less people turn to secondary markets. The gist of this economics is that due to LEGO churning out more exclusives an increasing portion of sets is condemned to be missing out on the top spots in people's rankings, plus demand is also more dispersed, negating the effect of limited supplies driving up prices. This is the reason many good, but not truly outstanding exclusives are showing poor returns. They are behind on the lists.

Well I've just woken up to this mess!!! Looks like the dream is over!!! Apologies to@CM4Sci for showing any doubt, it would now appear that you and your sources were correct. I still standby my statement that this set and the box art all all very poorly conceived however I don't think there is any doubt regards the new rear picture. So now it's time to ride the storm and suck it up. I think it's too late to start shifting 88s just tuck them away and forget about them. Hopefully I'll make some money of this early VIP 75159 set I managed to pick up this morning!! ;o)

LEGO birthday party time!

Hahahaha! Who is fake now?

Retiring Soon = Many "veteran" Lego Investors

I'm right there with you. Done buying outside of crazy deals like the $100 tie on amz day. Getting out of mediocre investments like orthanc and arkham. Will keep a pair each of the best stuff but the rest is going. This was not going to last forever and everything I'm seeing indicates it's time to get out. Having 30k tied up in bricks used to seem crazy to me. Then it seemed briliant. Now it seems crazy again. Mabye I'm panicing but I just don't trust lego anymore.

EBAY- $15 off $75 CPREP4SCHOOL16

I stopped buying one of every STAR WARS sets long ago in a galaxy far, far away.

Maybe

"When my grandfather designed the 10188, they didn't have the advanced building techniques and elements we have available today. Please keep in mind that we didn't take advantage of either of those things, but at least they were available to us."

Darn it. That $15 would have made a real difference on my next house purchase.

not an official set obviously, but Lego Spin Art machine for a birthday party activity

This took longer than I expected because I'm color blind according to my kids and don't know the difference between black and grey. Only had to partially dissemble 3 times to do a swap out. I will building the b model.

Profit levels and profit growth are two different things. Exceptional profits can be maintained even with 0 growth. Markets are finite, it could be pretty much expected that the growth slows down since more and more of the latent customer base has been turned into actual customers. I see no problem with slow growth. Exceptional profits can be eroded either because increasing costs (not very likely in the near future) or stronger competition. However Lepin and the others need to achieve a substantial market share to endanger LEGO. I don't see that happening in the near future for multiple reasons I don't want elaborate on right now. I see no serious competitors in the building blocks market.Therefore competition has to come from outside this market. Other toys, other fads. LEGO might lose its hip status and revert back to just be one toy among the others. What is more likely in my book is their main IPs losing strength. SW and Super Heroes are nicely blowing a big fat bubble, called oversaturation. Movies and games and everything are churned out at an increasing speed. I believe people will lose mass interest very soon, especially if some of the releases suck (which seem to be the case with RO). If these IPs become uncool, LEGO can be seriously hurt.

...adding to your point. This is how i totally feel, about Lego and investing currently. yeah, I know money can still be made. however. what's happening with 10188-75159 just reinforces the notion in this era of lego investing, (in general) the risk is greater for smaller profits than even 2 years ago.

What a crazy night lol. Probably most fun I've had on a forum in a while can't wait to wake up to more tomorrow. Night guys !

It's all worth it if someone uploads their video eating 10188.

Yes. Definitely real or not. [emoji6]

A little over half way. Lots of tiny pieces. About as wide as the castle

I bought a used one so I didn't have to apply the stickers. LOL

New 75159 Designer video up!!!

I googled up some more pics. I can't wait to see the shame in the eyes of the designer during the presentation video

Again... coming back to the discussion of our footprint in the lego sales. I really believe we have a significant share. When I read many people are scaling back investment purchases or like myself quit buying and sell 90% of my stash I cannot avoid concluding that lego will notice it in their sales. Just take your average investor here and check out their storage rooms. That is alot! Many non-investors do not buy at such scale. Some people here might even buy only clearance items. And stop buying at RRP. So if enough investors do that Lego will feel it. I made my decision to stop buying from Lego directly and only buy if 50% off or less. I will sell 90% of my stash. Already started with that proces end of last year. Maybe keep some Town Halls and R2's. But if I smell the slightest odor of a remake on the horizon I will sell everything. Maybe this is all very drastic. But Lego just went a bridge too far this time.

People are just not used to bear markets. Since the mid 2000's we were in a big bull market for LEGO. In the real economy they are following each other, yet people are still making money on the stock market. The keywords are flexibility and insight. Making money with LEGO was too easy in the last few years, this pheomenon was bound to be torn down. It is just hard to accept the truth. LEGO's decision making is also understandable. 10188 was a good seller. Disney may have only wanted to give it a face-lift. AoH might also be coming from Disney. We don't know either what's going on in the background nor what kind of statistics they have. What we know is that long term collectors and investors will be disgruntled, what they also most likely know, however their main objectives are probably different thus they accept this fact. Not everybody can be made happy at once. I am confident in LEGO, and what I see is that people are having a hard time adjusting to changes in corporate strategy after a relatively stable and predictable period for investors. In summary, people are just grieving the easy money. Sorry, but there is no free lunch.

It's a statistically proven fact that people are more willing to express negative opinions in a place like this (where many people are able to freely express their opinion... Party poopers aside, we can do that here). It's also proven that once the negative Nancy's are out, those with positive opinions are more likely to stay quiet. (And before you wonder if I just pulled that outta my ass, my partner worked at a market research firm doing statistical analysis for a number of years before going back to do her Ph.D. in sociology with her area of expertise being stats - not math based, social science based. Heck I even worked there for 11 months. )

You forgot increased purchase limits on most exclusives. Sounds like someone is looking to save money and drum up business.

I was so sure there was no way LEGO would just refresh a set of this magnitude... Guess I'll start eating...

Let's dispel with the fiction that wealthy people or companies know what they are doing.

For the record, I have absolutely zero stock in 10188. I came out of my 2nd dark age after this set was retired. So I want to clarify just what we are proposing in terms of a conspiracy theory that would be required for these pics to fake: 1. Lego group cares enough about their internal leaks to start an internal affairs/CIA level operation to discover the leak. 2. They are willing to devote the manpower to have two separate sets of design teams, one which is a decoy team that designs "FAKE" 75159 and one that designs "REAL" 75159. 3. They are willing to have find a way to make sure that NONE of the designers, and nobody, but the highest of the highest board and executive members know this, so they can flush out the leak. 4. They then also set two separate design teams to design boxes, and manuals. 5. They send two separate sets of materials to a printer to have them printed. 6. They send out internal memo's showing these materials to everyone, with only the highest executives knowing their plan. All the while, everyone else is completely in the dark. 7. They ship two separate 75159 out into shops and the wild. The FAKE 75159 first and then the REAL one a week or so later. This is TLG we are talking about. Not the FBI/CIA/KGB/covert operations group of choice. While all possible, I do not think TLG is willing to devote the manpower necessary to fabricate one of the most elaborate hoaxes in recent memory. Maybe the reason their lawyers are not circling the forums, is because this is NOT A BIG REVEAL! What thunder could you possibly be stealing by leaking this early?? If anything, we are doing them a favor, by diffusing the situation now, before the official announcement. We are already disappointed, so we don't come crashing down on them when they announce 75159. With the Disney Castle, there was some major thunder to be stolen there, they went for a big reveal and a big bang. There is NO BIG REVEAL THIS TIME, so why try and cover it up? Now, onto the pictures. For the record, I do a very large amount of photography in my spare time, and at one point used to do Pro Photography on the side for fun, and have reasonable experience in photoshop/lightroom. I am not a graphic designer, but I know my way around some programs. The pics in question. #1 - The VIP Promo Pic - Of all the pics, this has the highest chance of being fake. That being said, it also has a very high chance of being real. While people keep stating that it is grainy, well, the reason for that, is because it is a picture taken of a picture if that makes sense. I do this all the time when I have a spectacular photo I have taken out in the wild, and want to share it with someone. I have Canon 5dMKIII that does not have wifi capabalities, so if I want to send someone a pic real fast, I have to take a photo off the screen off the back of my camera. When I do this, it looks nearly identical to that photo. Likely someone took a picture of it with their phone, and then someone took a picture of it from that phone. The lines on the photo is the space between each pixel. While the graphic design is extremely questionable, I have seen worse from Lego, and the fonts, placement of product info in the lower left hand corner, are very consistent with their typical graphic design department. 2. - The instruction manual - This manual looks as though it was placed on a table, and the left side, where the STAR WARS logo and 75159 are, are falling off the table a little bit. This is what is causing the line to be crooked and the logo, etc. Take a magazine, lay it 1/4 off the edge at home and try it out yourself. You will see what I am talking about. 3. - The Box - This is highly convincing. This would have to be a pretty high end photoshop job, given the light reflections. It is definitely doable, but you are breaking out some big gun photoshopping. More likely if it is a fake, lego made a one time run of fake boxes. There is even the slight creasing on the box in the reflection showing the corrugation of the cardboard. This is Pixar level detail if you are photo shopping this sucker. The yellow line is consistent with the other placement on the manual as well. While the explosion is slightly different, that could be just the graphic designer scooting it a smidge for whatever reason. While I agree the graphic design of the box sucks, keep in mind for many years Lego had black and white boxes for their flagship sets. I definitely agree for their flagship it should be more exciting, however, it looks real. To deny that would be implying that TLG is now the CIA, and I don't think that is the case.

EBay 75094 - SW: Imperial Shuttle Tydirium 75134 - SW: Galactic Empire Battle Pack Both for $61 shipped after $15 coupon

I'm share similar thoughts as you do, Ciglione. Here is my take. September 1st begins the amazon sales period to start ramping up for the holidays. If by the end of october, I don't see stock getting blown out at a level I like, i'm not putting a single dollar into a lot of EOL sets for this upcoming year. I'm not as deep as some, but I have well over 10 g's in stock sitting in and around the house. Some themes like Lord of the Rings/Hobbit, i'm willing to wait a longer time on. Others, i'm not. It's time to move quite a bit of it actually, and not reinvest it back into future lego sets.. The signs are obvious to me on what to buy, and what not to buy. I will no longer say with confidence investing in Star Wars theme is going to pan out much further down the line. There will be some sets here and there that will do well, but overall there's going to be a lot of sets that barely break even after fees, taxes, time, and the rest are factored in. I have a feeling Lego is moving into refreshing sets a lot faster than the 3 to 4 year cycle they used to do.

Since when do the mods on this site edit members posts on the sly without an acknowledgment? Scummy practice indeed lol.

On a positive note , we have some great ideas on how to flush out our own BP mole that keeps posting on SD ... Stay tuned

Everyone here would take a free copy. They might flip it, but they'd take it fo sho.

I must say that I am somehow starting to like the new set - I can't wait to get one. Poppin those seals, all those numbered bags, that fresh LEGO scent - getting to live through all of those iconic scenes, all over again..

Google. If it looks like 10188 but says 75159 on the box, it's real.

My 10143s look better all the time.

Ok Folks, I'll see you guys back here In 3 years. Chao.

Yeas surely that's fake ..... not im with you cm4sci

"Well I have about 20 Emails and 3 phone calls on the New Death Star and what am I doing about the 10188.I was going to wait a while to post but with my name poping up everwhere well he is my thought. "Do I have the blues on this on the 60 DS I had sure who wouldn't. But you guys with just a few act like the world has ended, and Lego investing is dead, Well I have sold 15 DS, $550-600, most on Craigs List, and with the Double VIP Points a few weeks ago and I had a few hundred dollars VIP Points I took the $5000 grand and so and went out and got Sancrawlers, Ferris wheels, More Simpsons sets, Ewok Villages, PR, Etc and with all the VIP points I had I got 2 Sandcrawlers Free. and I got Most of my DS for $262 from B&N and alot for for $285 with the Toys R US Buy 2 get onfe free, and that was twice a year for years, and others I got were $300 or so on Amazon. so I have 45 DS Left, I see these taking many many years on being worth $800-1000 unless the new one is not made long. "My Theory is I am waiting for Christmas to see how much these are going for which I don't see much, I look at it this way now after Christmas if there are 100's on ebay I will unloade 25 more even if I can get a $50 profit I will do it so I look at it me having $12,000 grand put away, having lost nothing but these would have been a $1000 set in another year or two. so either way I am still living on wall street, I still have 40 POTC Pearl and Queen Sets, 40 HP 4842 & 10217 Sets, 45 SSD, 58 HH and thousands of more great sets and exclusives. and as I said before I would like to stop buying when I am 70 and thats 2 yrs from now, now easier said than done. "Now I will sail if Lego does the HH, TH, and other great Exclusives basically the same way well then giving up on investing might be a thought, So here are my thoughts and what I am doing, and you guys that have 5 or under and don't need the money I would hold on to them, you guys with 10 and up if you can make your money back I would sell about 5 of them. and whoever thinks the new DS will be a poor seller I disacree. So if anybody wants to email me or even call me I have talked to hundreds of you guys on the phone. "So Don't Crack and give up the ship" Ed