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Should we start a new topic for GC math so that we can get back to the daily deals?

This is a matter of preference (and simplicity), but I stop at $80.75 since I have not used the $6.80 eBay bucks. If eBay bucks program is cancelled tonight I loose my access to that $6.80. Next month when I use $6.80 eBay bucks to buy another $100 TRU gc for $85, I can subtract $6.80 from that purchase price

My personal mod rule is when my annoyance is greater than my laziness, I move it.

Sorry, my personal Mod rule is the OT posts need to be at least 1 page long before I move them out of DD thread.

Simple.........just explain to him that money is more important than his happiness. Also explain to him that Lego is not a toy, it's a commodity only.

No front end math, only back end math. That's what she said.

Just wait for the re release.

"You don't know you're in the good old days until you've actually left them." I am not sure how many of you have read my postings over the last 2 months since I joined in January, so I will give you a very brief intro to my background. While I am a relatively new Brickpicker member, I am certainly not new to this game. I was in it huge from 2004-2007, Had many UCS xwings, UCS Tie Interceptors, UCS ISD, UCS Y-wings, UCS Snowspeeders, CTT, Cloud Cities etc. While I was not an emazer level operation, I was running about 3,000-4,000 in volume on an average month and reached Bronze Powerseller level, so not too bad. However, in 2007, due to life changes I started selling off my stock without reinvesting. I cashed out and did not ante back up. Over the last 8 years since I sold of my last Clone Turbo Tank in 2008, I have peripherally watched the market. I have seen various sets rise to proportions never thought possible (10179), and some falter secondary to remakes. On occasion I would surf Amazon just to see what the lowest buy price would be, many times wishing I was still in it. I would visit the Lego store when I happened to be in Disney World just to check out what sets were out, seeing the exponential increase in sets being produced. In January, I happened to be walk into a Lego Store in a mall with my son, and was just shocked as to just how many licensed sets there were. I was also impressed with just how accurate some of the newer sets were in likeness to the actual original model (Wall-E and Ecto01.) Suddenly, I had this itch to get back in the game again, that I just could not resist. Luckily, over the last year, several life changes had allowed me to pursue this endeavor again for the second time. So I decided to get back into the game. For the record, I did not get into the game because of a USA Today or WSJ article. In all honesty, I am awful with politics and current events, so I had no idea how far Lego resale, or what is now called "brickvesting" had now become. I had no idea this was even being covered on a national level, until I decided to start back into Lego Resale. So I began googling about Lego sets, and to my shock, there were national news articles about Lego investing and even a WHOLE WEBSITE devoted to Lego Investing. All I could think about about was how far this had come in 8 years. From 2004-2007, there were minimal Lego and AFOL websites. There was bricklink and fbtb.net, and the only big forum community was on fbtb. And that was mostly Star Wars Legos without a whole lot about anything else. Although, in all honesty, back then there were minimal exclusives, and really Star Wars Lego's were the only think worth investing in. So I discovered this Brickpicker, and I just happened to get in at the time the Tumbler was retiring, so this place was on fire about the retirement of this Iconic set. In all honesty, this set was the set that pulled me out of retirement as it seems like such a good investment. I still believe the Tumbler is a great investment, however, reading the forums for the last two months caused me to realize just how much has changed in 8 years, and how much more difficult this will be now than it was from 2004-2007. It took me a while to figure just what changed. Lego's were such a guarantee before. Ebay and the internet while young and in it's infancy was still a known commodity and widely available in 2004-2007. People knew what items were selling for. You could search completed listings and know that Lego's could net a good sum of money. People had hopped onto various collectible fads in that time from Magic cards, beanie babies, furbies, baseball cards, and tons of other garbage. Lego had ALWAYS been immune because it was not a fad. It never had major publicity but was always reasonably popular. So what changed? As I read article after article, I finally noticed a pattern. It was 10179. This was the game changer, and quite frankly the worst thing to happen to Lego Investing. 10179 came out right about the time I was leaving my Ebay business. At the time, no one would touch this thing with a ten foot pole from an investment standpoint. It was already hard enough shipping 10030 ISD's. When I would ship an ISD, I would go to the grocery store, get a ton of boxes, cut them up and jury rig some kind of cardboard container. It was painfully time intensive. How the heck was someone gonna find boxes for a 10179? The weight, size, and investment of $500 (although it was pretty much permanently on sale around $400) was near insanity. The most expensive set selling at the time was the UCS X wing and it sold used for about $450 usedand MISB around $650-700. So how in the world was the market going to tolerate selling 10179 to make a profit. This was even in a time when Ebay fees and paypal fees combined were about 6-7% if I remember correctly. It was basically considered flop from an investment standpoint. It was the Sea Cow of 2007. Oh if we had only known what we know now. Many might ask, how could the single most profitable set of all time be bad for investing? 10179 gave a face to Lego Investing. Before Lego's were just a standard commodity like any other resalable collectable item. Sure some sets might sell for a profit for 200-300, but lots of other collectibles do that. I sold Art Asylum Star Trek Starships for a while and was buying them for $5 dollars and selling for $140-$150. There are tons of reselling opportunities out there if you understand the market, and Lego was just another one like any other toy or collectible. However, 10179 brought it to the forefront. It was the Honus Wagner and Mickey Mantle rookie card of the Lego world. Those cards caused people to jump on to baseball card collecting like no other. People would blindly buy baseball cards with no market research just because of those two cards. Sound familiar? The Mack's state in their webpage bio that part of what stemmed them building this website was 10179. Without 10179 there would be no Brickpicker. Without Brickpicker, there wouldn't be a USA Today headline bringing Lego Investing to the masses. 10179 was what gave bloggers and article writer's a nice catchy headline. "Lego's set sells for $5,000" "Lego's Brick's Better Than Gold Bricks." From the moment 10179 took off, it was all downhill from there in the Lego Investing world. 10179 was basically the coming out party of Lego Investing. People dream of making the big bucks. People dream of hitting gold. 10179 gave people a tangible dream in the Lego Investing market. Before then it was simply a faceless game that some people partook in. I would always get laughed at in any business meeting when people asked what I was investing in, and I told them once I had maxed out all other retirement options, I would probably put some in Lego's. You can only imagine my stares. Now with websites like this and USA today, and WSJ article's I have ammo now to defend my position. Unfortunately, now with the ammo, it is even harder to defend the position. So ultimately, 10179, has caused a spiral of events that will ultimately eventually bring about the end of Lego Investing. Is that likely to happen in the next 10 years? Not likely, but this site is adding 60 new members a day based on the number at the bottom of the main page. Albeit, not everyone is going to invest, and some might join just for the community, but there are some investors in that number. The market is still very strong, and will always remain strong because Lego is not a fad, and Lego will always have demand. Are you likely to lose in Lego Investing, like people lost big in baseball cards and beanie babies. Not likely, unless you are just AWFUL at picking sets, and are completely impatient. However, eventually a time will come, when selling just to cover your initial investment at RRP+Taxes will become standard for most sets. "You don't know you're in the good old days until you've actually left them."

?

My personal rule is spend time in the bubble threads pissing members off and let someone else move posts from DD.

If you think that the mob is negative now (when things are still relatively good), just imagine how they will be when things are actually bad.

Limit 1 on all exclusive internet orders has seemed to be an effective form of stock control as has banning so many resellers. In the US, they have been more lenient recently and maybe folk want to get their Lego now before the Trump apocalypse.

Pet shop 141.99 @ TRU http://m.toysrus.com/product/index.jsp?productId=12066406

I'm quite new to the investing game (only a few years) and even newer to this website, but I'm not new to lego. Some of the negativity is hard to read, and sometimes it's like everyone wants the bubble to burst just to get rid of the dross so we can all start a fresh again, but like any investment be it wine, gold, art, property it will always have its ups and downs. It easy for newbies to jump on the band wagon after reading a few cleverly worded articles in the Media and think they are going to make a quick buck, but like all things, it will become a fad to them because they will soon realise it didn't pan out like they once thought, they actually have to do some research to make their money, they need to outlay money that actually haven't got, they will then be quick to off load what little stock they have (probably Tumblers) at pretty much RRP and won't return again because in reality they actually had no love for the product they was investing in, which is where the majority of us differ !! For me, I love lego, I love reading about it, I love building it, I loved taking me son to Legoland yesterday (probably more than he did) !! I love the product ! So my attitude towards investing is obviously be sensible regards your choices, but if you are worried then only invest in sets that you have an interest in, and therefore if they don't rise in price like you once hoped, then at least you can still build them again in the future!! I'm not a big player like some on here, 60 DS, I'd have to re-mortgage. But I tend to only buy a few of each exclusive that I feel will do well and if I can sale one in the future to cover the costs of my hobby then I'm happy, I didn't get into this game so I could give up my day job ! At worst case scenario, I hope to sale off used sets for not much less then I originally purchased them for if done right. Regards the smaller sets, yes if I see Ecto 1 with 50% off I may gamble and buy half a dozen, but again if the ‘bubble bursts’ it won't be as hard to sale them again at RRP and cover costs! How many other toys can you say that about? I bought my son a Hasbro Millennium Falcon at xmas for about £120 !!! Rip off, but that is what he wanted, give it a year I’ll be selling it at a boot fair for £5 if I’m lucky !!

At the rate some threads are going right now, I'll be merging the entire board into the bubble thread!

So I can buy a 10179.

One of the most underrated parts of this game that people do not emphasize enough is without a doubt the buy-in. Sure if you are buying a set at 30% off you are guaranteed reasonable profits. Back in 2004-2007, discounts on exclusive's were very easy to come by. I have posted this pic before, but just to emphasize how different this game is now, could you imagine discounts like this in today's climate. I know I can't. Buying exclusive's at 50% just does not happen anymore. If this happened in today's market, it would go bananas. The BP would probably shut down and it would be a national holiday. Discounts like this were common place before. The buy-in was crazy low. I almost want to vomit thinking about how much I missed out from 2007-2012 before the game started changing. Just finding a set at 10% off like the Tie Fighter today (it was 15%, but most have at least 5% in taxes), make people go crazy now. Before a 10% discount would barely even cause people to bat an eye. Tie Fighter or Slave I going for $100 would crash a website. Getting the Kwok-E-Mart for $150 from Barnes and Nobles is a no brainer, but if you weren't online at the right place and the right time you likely missed it. For most casual investors, we do not have the time to hunt every deal down, and eek out every percentage point discount, making it increasingly hard for the casual investor to succeed in Legovesting. But truly, the most important aspect of the game going forward is the Buy-In. It's easy for an emazer or any other BPer who stalks deals for maximal discount to sit back and feel good when buying at 30-40% off RRP on an exclusive. Even if the market sits sub $600 for 10188, a buy in at $275 makes profits easy going. For future sets, however, getting a set like GBHQ, Hellicarrier, Sandcrawler, etc. for more than 10% off is a battle, a battle which Lego is fighting furiously to win. The occasional deal will pop up, but it is becoming harder and harder to get that low buy-in. Given the effort of the buy-in, one has to start placing a value on the time to hunt these deals down, whereas before an RRP buy-in was more than good enough, and anything else was gravy. Now there is no gravy. Just biscuits. Thankfully, Lego's will never bottom out to a zero worth like baseball cards and beanie babies. No matter what there is a bare minimum innate value in the bricks themselves. With Beanie Babies, the fabric and beans are basically worthless in bulk. With baseball cards, cardboard is literally worthless, unless you are using it to ship Lego's. =) Lego bricks sell in bulk for at least some cash, so even in the worst case scenario, there is intrinsic value in the brick itself. This provides a safety net unlike the stock market which can hit zero value.

EW. Ewok Willage.

I think this is the most accurate description I've read to summarize the problem at hand. There is bubble talk weekly here, which permeates through many of the various threads. I don' think there is a bubble that will burst, causing prices to plummet significantly on LEGO sets like beanies or baseball cards, but I do think we are at serious risk of very small gains on many sets in the future. As described above, the sheer number of EOL sets available on the secondary market moving forward may keep appreciation rates very modest. People wouldn't pay $1200 for a Green Grocer if there were 200 sellers with available stock on Amazon. This is the biggest difference between 2008 and 2016. I will be very interested to watch the growth curves of exclusives purchased or retired in 2014 and later. Sure, @emazers is going to do well with his 60 Death Stars, because he purchased them at an average cost of something like $275, but could you do that today? TRU doesn't seem to do the BOGO on exclusives anymore, B&N has shut the coupons off. Where can re-sellers, especially those new to the game, pick-up large volumes of exclusive sets discounted at 35 to 40% off RRP? I think pockets of opportunity for good LEGO profit will remain for years to come, I'm just not confident that the long-term hold strategy will remain the most viable. Quick-flips, cashing out 6-12 months after retirement, parting out sets, trying to find the overlooked sets, etc are likely key to survival.

As someone who's been trading the financial markets for over 2 decades, I find this Lego investing trend very interesting. What got me back into Lego was not any article, but opening and building a set that was gifted to me. Only then did I realize how crazy it was out there. I firmly believe the days of multiples of 100s even 1000s percent gains is over. It just won't happen. There will always be a strong secondary market, but not likes of the 10179s, etc... User Vassal on Eurobricks pretty much summed it up. What he/she says is straight out of an economics text book. " ....Some get into it to help subsidize their Lego hobby, I know I have been tempted to do so. However, I fully believe the market just won't hold. There are a couple major items to any market: (1) scarcity and (2) information. There has been a large increase in the number of "resellers" or "investors" in the secondary market the past couple of years. These people are stockpiling massive collections (literally massive, like storage units full) of sets for sale later based on historical times when there was significant scarcity for a particular retired set. With the increase in resellers, scarcity will go down, and profits will go down. We won't see the extreme EOL gains on these sets any longer since there will be literally hundreds, if not thousands in the secondary market. There simply will be too much supply for the demand. Another aspect of scarcity is in my mind, I would rather just buy the sets coming out from Lego at much cheaper prices. Lego investors are primarily targeting AFOLs coming out of the dark ages. As a recent AFOL out of the dark ages, I have wanted retired sets, but filled that void with new sets coming out as I can't pay the prices for the retired sets on the secondary market. I can buy loads of sets with thousands of pieces for the price of a Green Grocer. " Information: This will hit the Lego secondary market in a couple of ways. Information regarding Lego investing is becoming widely disseminated. With stocks (pretty much worldwide), there is widely available information out in the public. Any information not in the public is illegal to make investment decisions on. Due to this, stocks will pretty much reprice based on any information out in the public, and no one usually has information that the general public don't. This is the efficient market theory which minimizes the quick profits. The same will occur with Lego, it is no longer a secret regarding the money to be made with them. That information will bring down the price as more and more investors flood to sell (back to scarcity), and there will no longer be a price gap due to misinformation (few people knowing the value of Lego retired sets).It isn't the resellers that ramp up the prices, but the buyers who buy at those prices. If you have no buyers at a particular price point, sellers won't sell. The prices wouldn't be where they are if there wasn't a market for them at that price.I only do get frustrated with them purchasing up all the deals so quickly, but I don't know that it is them solely responsible for out of stock items. I don't have anything against them personally, as I know there are lots making good money. To each there own, but these are my personal thoughts on the future of the Lego secondary market.I hope to some degree parting out stays around as I do like being able to stock up on a lot of certain pieces rather than trying to buy whole sets with pieces and minifigures I don't need or want. "

All downhill after Revan. Hard to top that guy tho.

Yes. eBay requires eBay money.

Tru gift cards available on eBay. $85 for $100 gift card

Fairground mixer is Out of stock LEGO Shop at Home. This is the first time I noticed this set going out of stock. It's been out since 2014 and managed to keep kind of low profile (I think). Looks like a set with great potential to me.

Lisbon kiosk by Fernando Narciso

If I wasn't shopping for LEGO, I would be doing it to collect something else. Saving a few bucks at a time has always been standard for me.

Right. Now more than ever, Lego reselling is more of a hustle rather than buying up a bunch of exclusives and sitting back. I'd love to sit at home and make a few mouse clicks and call it a day. I am actively having to scour this site looking to save $10 dollars here, $30 here, buying discounted gift cards, etc. Visiting multiple stores in order to find clearance items and shopping sales several times a week. Seeing 200+ Amazon sellers before Brickpickers even consider listing their sets in disheartening. In the end, is it all worth it to make some modest gains? We'll see in a couple of years.

Is there a problem, or are expectations the problem?

IMHO, you need to look at it like this: You spent $95 and received $100 in TRU credit, $15 in Ebay credit and $6.80 in Ebay bucks. Best way I can spin this is you get $123.80 in various credit for $95. You could say that this would make the TRU GC $95-$15-$6.80 = $73.20 - but from a cash flow perspective you're still out $95.

Target $95 -> $100 eBay = 5% discount off face value (so 95% of cost) eBay $85 (at 95% of value equaling $80.75 ) -> TRU $100 = $80.75 for $100 TRU I ignore completely the eBay bucks on the front end. I only account for them at time of use, like all non-immediate rewards/discounts. The eBay gift cards can just be used up later - essentially $15 eBay for $14.25 "real $" Edit: Damn it, I am too slow or you bunch of barbarians are too quick for me <-- old git

I thought I read on BP that we're to take the discount twice...?

I see what you're doing, but there is no way I could convince myself this is the correct way to figure eBay bucks.

You walk out of Target having spent $95 for a $100 gift card. When you buy the TRU card for $85, you have only paid 95% of the total cost, 85*.95 = $80.75. Subtract the ebay bucks you receive (-$6.80) and you come to a total of $73.95. You will still have a balance remaining on the ebay gift card as well. $15.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Get-a-100-Toys-R-Us-Gift-Card-for-only-85-Email-delivery-/262346454683?hash=item3d1511369b:g:DywAAOSwbdpWazuf Plus $6.80 back in ebay bucks if you got the promo... why, why must you do this to my wallet...

We'll still have the same amount of threads though with all the new threads (that already have a thread) started by newer members...[emoji4]

Just cause you're in France doesn't justify Le Sigh

What else would you like to discuss? There are no leaked images of new releases to get excited, nothing has retired unexpectedly or is showing any strange patterns (except for PS which is a given as it happens every year) and no sets are showing spectacular growth worth reporting on. If all else fails it´s bubble time!

Maybe the US economy is simply doing a lot better than the European economy right now? There are many more uncertainties here in Europe, with the ongoing war in Syria resulting in a steady influx of asylum seekers, the threats by terrorists to destroy our western culture, the Euro currency being weak, a doom-scenario of a possible Brexit which will hurt both Great Britain and the EU, higher unemploymency levels, people feeling less certain about their job security. All those factors influence the willingness to spend money on a luxury toy like Lego.

If someone buys 1 Tumbler because Emazers/The Daily Telegraph/Ed Mack/ their barber advised them to, they´re part of the horde. 60 people with 1 Tumbler saturate the market as much as 1 person with 60, especially if they have no game plan.

Not disagreeing with your overall post, but maybe, just maybe, Tower Bridge and the T1 VW Camper Van have stayed around because they're really cool Lego sets which sell well and they're ageless so new afols are always going to want them. You do know also, that when you talk about the horde, that really we're all part of that horde.

Built 70742 Airjitsu Zane Flyer tonight with my son, who turned 4 today. I'm just going to say it - I want one of my own. I was having fun trying to make it hit the ceiling in our entryway (which is two stories).

Just speculating that this might also lead to a big Star Wars set. "There is a huge vehicle coming for the Fall. Right now, it's loosely described (in code perhaps) as a 3.75" Star Wars Signature Set and will retail somewhere between $289.99 and $299.99. It may or may not come with pack-in figures, but that information is sketchy at the moment. Our sources strongly believe that it's possible this could be an AT-AT vehicle (as leaked by Toy Ark around Toy Fair) while others have suggested a playset like the Death Star (but that could be a stretch). Whatever it is, it's honestly a little bit early fuzzy to lock down at the moment. No matter what it is, it is certainly expensive and hopefully will be HUGE." http://www.jeditemplearchives.com/content/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=17557/#details

That's also how I use staples gift cards. The thread below has some great info on boxes. Purchasing boxes was the #1 biggest stress reliever for me when selling.

Staples has sales on boxes from time to time. Perfect combination with the gift card to lower your shipping costs when you sell stuff.

Took my son to visit our local legoland today, walked into the star wars shop and to my disbelief they had 2 x Red5 and 2 x DS sitting in their stock room!!!! Couldn't believe it!! Needless to say, they aren't sitting in there anymore!!!

This thing will be rejected because ehem LEGO has something very similar ehem being developed long before this is submitted to IDEAS

Turds for Birds - I like it.

...and that's when I didn't have the extra money to buy. I had to look ahead and start turning stuff over to gain tolerance from the wife.