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Showing content with the highest reputation on 03/22/2016 in all areas
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"You don't know you're in the good old days until you've actually left them." I am not sure how many of you have read my postings over the last 2 months since I joined in January, so I will give you a very brief intro to my background. While I am a relatively new Brickpicker member, I am certainly not new to this game. I was in it huge from 2004-2007, Had many UCS xwings, UCS Tie Interceptors, UCS ISD, UCS Y-wings, UCS Snowspeeders, CTT, Cloud Cities etc. While I was not an emazer level operation, I was running about 3,000-4,000 in volume on an average month and reached Bronze Powerseller level, so not too bad. However, in 2007, due to life changes I started selling off my stock without reinvesting. I cashed out and did not ante back up. Over the last 8 years since I sold of my last Clone Turbo Tank in 2008, I have peripherally watched the market. I have seen various sets rise to proportions never thought possible (10179), and some falter secondary to remakes. On occasion I would surf Amazon just to see what the lowest buy price would be, many times wishing I was still in it. I would visit the Lego store when I happened to be in Disney World just to check out what sets were out, seeing the exponential increase in sets being produced. In January, I happened to be walk into a Lego Store in a mall with my son, and was just shocked as to just how many licensed sets there were. I was also impressed with just how accurate some of the newer sets were in likeness to the actual original model (Wall-E and Ecto01.) Suddenly, I had this itch to get back in the game again, that I just could not resist. Luckily, over the last year, several life changes had allowed me to pursue this endeavor again for the second time. So I decided to get back into the game. For the record, I did not get into the game because of a USA Today or WSJ article. In all honesty, I am awful with politics and current events, so I had no idea how far Lego resale, or what is now called "brickvesting" had now become. I had no idea this was even being covered on a national level, until I decided to start back into Lego Resale. So I began googling about Lego sets, and to my shock, there were national news articles about Lego investing and even a WHOLE WEBSITE devoted to Lego Investing. All I could think about about was how far this had come in 8 years. From 2004-2007, there were minimal Lego and AFOL websites. There was bricklink and fbtb.net, and the only big forum community was on fbtb. And that was mostly Star Wars Legos without a whole lot about anything else. Although, in all honesty, back then there were minimal exclusives, and really Star Wars Lego's were the only think worth investing in. So I discovered this Brickpicker, and I just happened to get in at the time the Tumbler was retiring, so this place was on fire about the retirement of this Iconic set. In all honesty, this set was the set that pulled me out of retirement as it seems like such a good investment. I still believe the Tumbler is a great investment, however, reading the forums for the last two months caused me to realize just how much has changed in 8 years, and how much more difficult this will be now than it was from 2004-2007. It took me a while to figure just what changed. Lego's were such a guarantee before. Ebay and the internet while young and in it's infancy was still a known commodity and widely available in 2004-2007. People knew what items were selling for. You could search completed listings and know that Lego's could net a good sum of money. People had hopped onto various collectible fads in that time from Magic cards, beanie babies, furbies, baseball cards, and tons of other garbage. Lego had ALWAYS been immune because it was not a fad. It never had major publicity but was always reasonably popular. So what changed? As I read article after article, I finally noticed a pattern. It was 10179. This was the game changer, and quite frankly the worst thing to happen to Lego Investing. 10179 came out right about the time I was leaving my Ebay business. At the time, no one would touch this thing with a ten foot pole from an investment standpoint. It was already hard enough shipping 10030 ISD's. When I would ship an ISD, I would go to the grocery store, get a ton of boxes, cut them up and jury rig some kind of cardboard container. It was painfully time intensive. How the heck was someone gonna find boxes for a 10179? The weight, size, and investment of $500 (although it was pretty much permanently on sale around $400) was near insanity. The most expensive set selling at the time was the UCS X wing and it sold used for about $450 usedand MISB around $650-700. So how in the world was the market going to tolerate selling 10179 to make a profit. This was even in a time when Ebay fees and paypal fees combined were about 6-7% if I remember correctly. It was basically considered flop from an investment standpoint. It was the Sea Cow of 2007. Oh if we had only known what we know now. Many might ask, how could the single most profitable set of all time be bad for investing? 10179 gave a face to Lego Investing. Before Lego's were just a standard commodity like any other resalable collectable item. Sure some sets might sell for a profit for 200-300, but lots of other collectibles do that. I sold Art Asylum Star Trek Starships for a while and was buying them for $5 dollars and selling for $140-$150. There are tons of reselling opportunities out there if you understand the market, and Lego was just another one like any other toy or collectible. However, 10179 brought it to the forefront. It was the Honus Wagner and Mickey Mantle rookie card of the Lego world. Those cards caused people to jump on to baseball card collecting like no other. People would blindly buy baseball cards with no market research just because of those two cards. Sound familiar? The Mack's state in their webpage bio that part of what stemmed them building this website was 10179. Without 10179 there would be no Brickpicker. Without Brickpicker, there wouldn't be a USA Today headline bringing Lego Investing to the masses. 10179 was what gave bloggers and article writer's a nice catchy headline. "Lego's set sells for $5,000" "Lego's Brick's Better Than Gold Bricks." From the moment 10179 took off, it was all downhill from there in the Lego Investing world. 10179 was basically the coming out party of Lego Investing. People dream of making the big bucks. People dream of hitting gold. 10179 gave people a tangible dream in the Lego Investing market. Before then it was simply a faceless game that some people partook in. I would always get laughed at in any business meeting when people asked what I was investing in, and I told them once I had maxed out all other retirement options, I would probably put some in Lego's. You can only imagine my stares. Now with websites like this and USA today, and WSJ article's I have ammo now to defend my position. Unfortunately, now with the ammo, it is even harder to defend the position. So ultimately, 10179, has caused a spiral of events that will ultimately eventually bring about the end of Lego Investing. Is that likely to happen in the next 10 years? Not likely, but this site is adding 60 new members a day based on the number at the bottom of the main page. Albeit, not everyone is going to invest, and some might join just for the community, but there are some investors in that number. The market is still very strong, and will always remain strong because Lego is not a fad, and Lego will always have demand. Are you likely to lose in Lego Investing, like people lost big in baseball cards and beanie babies. Not likely, unless you are just AWFUL at picking sets, and are completely impatient. However, eventually a time will come, when selling just to cover your initial investment at RRP+Taxes will become standard for most sets. "You don't know you're in the good old days until you've actually left them."22 points
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It is Time! EBay 5 hour flash sale 9AM - 2PM PST use code C15SPRING $15 off $7513 points
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11 points
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"You don't know you're in the good old days until you've actually left them." I am not sure how many of you have read my postings over the last 2 months since I joined in January, so I will give you a very brief intro to my background. While I am a relatively new Brickpicker member, I am certainly not new to this game. I was in it huge from 2004-2007, Had many UCS xwings, UCS Tie Interceptors, UCS ISD, UCS Y-wings, UCS Snowspeeders, CTT, Cloud Cities etc. While I was not an emazer level operation, I was running about 3,000-4,000 in volume on an average month and reached Bronze Powerseller level, so not too bad. However, in 2007, due to life changes I started selling off my stock without reinvesting. I cashed out and did not ante back up. Over the last 8 years since I sold of my last Clone Turbo Tank in 2008, I have peripherally watched the market. I have seen various sets rise to proportions never thought possible (10179), and some falter secondary to remakes. On occasion I would surf Amazon just to see what the lowest buy price would be, many times wishing I was still in it. I would visit the Lego store when I happened to be in Disney World just to check out what sets were out, seeing the exponential increase in sets being produced. In January, I happened to be walk into a Lego Store in a mall with my son, and was just shocked as to just how many licensed sets there were. I was also impressed with just how accurate some of the newer sets were in likeness to the actual original model (Wall-E and Ecto01.) Suddenly, I had this itch to get back in the game again, that I just could not resist. Luckily, over the last year, several life changes had allowed me to pursue this endeavor again for the second time. So I decided to get back into the game. For the record, I did not get into the game because of a USA Today or WSJ article. In all honesty, I am awful with politics and current events, so I had no idea how far Lego resale, or what is now called "brickvesting" had now become. I had no idea this was even being covered on a national level, until I decided to start back into Lego Resale. So I began googling about Lego sets, and to my shock, there were national news articles about Lego investing and even a WHOLE WEBSITE devoted to Lego Investing. All I could think about about was how far this had come in 8 years. From 2004-2007, there were minimal Lego and AFOL websites. There was bricklink and fbtb.net, and the only big forum community was on fbtb. And that was mostly Star Wars Legos without a whole lot about anything else. Although, in all honesty, back then there were minimal exclusives, and really Star Wars Lego's were the only think worth investing in. So I discovered this Brickpicker, and I just happened to get in at the time the Tumbler was retiring, so this place was on fire about the retirement of this Iconic set. In all honesty, this set was the set that pulled me out of retirement as it seems like such a good investment. I still believe the Tumbler is a great investment, however, reading the forums for the last two months caused me to realize just how much has changed in 8 years, and how much more difficult this will be now than it was from 2004-2007. It took me a while to figure just what changed. Lego's were such a guarantee before. Ebay and the internet while young and in it's infancy was still a known commodity and widely available in 2004-2007. People knew what items were selling for. You could search completed listings and know that Lego's could net a good sum of money. People had hopped onto various collectible fads in that time from Magic cards, beanie babies, furbies, baseball cards, and tons of other garbage. Lego had ALWAYS been immune because it was not a fad. It never had major publicity but was always reasonably popular. So what changed? As I read article after article, I finally noticed a pattern. It was 10179. This was the game changer, and quite frankly the worst thing to happen to Lego Investing. 10179 came out right about the time I was leaving my Ebay business. At the time, no one would touch this thing with a ten foot pole from an investment standpoint. It was already hard enough shipping 10030 ISD's. When I would ship an ISD, I would go to the grocery store, get a ton of boxes, cut them up and jury rig some kind of cardboard container. It was painfully time intensive. How the heck was someone gonna find boxes for a 10179? The weight, size, and investment of $500 (although it was pretty much permanently on sale around $400) was near insanity. The most expensive set selling at the time was the UCS X wing and it sold used for about $450 usedand MISB around $650-700. So how in the world was the market going to tolerate selling 10179 to make a profit. This was even in a time when Ebay fees and paypal fees combined were about 6-7% if I remember correctly. It was basically considered flop from an investment standpoint. It was the Sea Cow of 2007. Oh if we had only known what we know now. Many might ask, how could the single most profitable set of all time be bad for investing? 10179 gave a face to Lego Investing. Before Lego's were just a standard commodity like any other resalable collectable item. Sure some sets might sell for a profit for 200-300, but lots of other collectibles do that. I sold Art Asylum Star Trek Starships for a while and was buying them for $5 dollars and selling for $140-$150. There are tons of reselling opportunities out there if you understand the market, and Lego was just another one like any other toy or collectible. However, 10179 brought it to the forefront. It was the Honus Wagner and Mickey Mantle rookie card of the Lego world. Those cards caused people to jump on to baseball card collecting like no other. People would blindly buy baseball cards with no market research just because of those two cards. Sound familiar? The Mack's state in their webpage bio that part of what stemmed them building this website was 10179. Without 10179 there would be no Brickpicker. Without Brickpicker, there wouldn't be a USA Today headline bringing Lego Investing to the masses. 10179 was what gave bloggers and article writer's a nice catchy headline. "Lego's set sells for $5,000" "Lego's Brick's Better Than Gold Bricks." From the moment 10179 took off, it was all downhill from there in the Lego Investing world. 10179 was basically the coming out party of Lego Investing. People dream of making the big bucks. People dream of hitting gold. 10179 gave people a tangible dream in the Lego Investing market. Before then it was simply a faceless game that some people partook in. I would always get laughed at in any business meeting when people asked what I was investing in, and I told them once I had maxed out all other retirement options, I would probably put some in Lego's. You can only imagine my stares. Now with websites like this and USA today, and WSJ article's I have ammo now to defend my position. Unfortunately, now with the ammo, it is even harder to defend the position. So ultimately, 10179, has caused a spiral of events that will ultimately eventually bring about the end of Lego Investing. Is that likely to happen in the next 10 years? Not likely, but this site is adding 60 new members a day based on the number at the bottom of the main page. Albeit, not everyone is going to invest, and some might join just for the community, but there are some investors in that number. The market is still very strong, and will always remain strong because Lego is not a fad, and Lego will always have demand. Are you likely to lose in Lego Investing, like people lost big in baseball cards and beanie babies. Not likely, unless you are just AWFUL at picking sets, and are completely impatient. However, eventually a time will come, when selling just to cover your initial investment at RRP+Taxes will become standard for most sets. "You don't know you're in the good old days until you've actually left them."10 points
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7 points
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Took my son to visit our local legoland today, walked into the star wars shop and to my disbelief they had 2 x Red5 and 2 x DS sitting in their stock room!!!! Couldn't believe it!! Needless to say, they aren't sitting in there anymore!!!5 points
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Walmart has a secret deal on the UCS TIE at $168.82. You have to enter your name and email address to see the price. This seems odd as I thought TLG does not allow third party retailers to discount exclusive sets. http://linksynergy.walmart.com/fs-bin/click?id=jfOcdvfTNg4&subid=&offerid=223073.1&type=10&tmpid=1082&RD_PARM1=http%253A%252F%252Fwww.walmart.com%252Fip%252FLEGO-Star-Wars-TIE-Fighter%252F421042745 points
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Passing on the Walmart deal. UCS Tie will retire in 3 years and who the hell knows where Lego reselling will be in 2020.4 points
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I haven't tried yet, but you should be able to add a $25 and a $50 to get 20% off $75 instead of 15% on 100.4 points
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a sleeper set that gets mentioned a decent amount of times? And has 179 resellers on Amazon. The horde has ruined this one too most likely.4 points
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PREORDER NOW AVAILABLE FROM AMAZON Will be released on June 21, 20163 points
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"Just sayin'…“ What is this? I see it all the time. This expression appears to be some disclaimer which removes the author from all accountability. If there is no substance to one’s statement then why just not say it in the first place? If you have something to express, then by all means, say it. Stand behind it. Please, do not state an opinion and then turn around and remove yourself from any culpability. Reading or writing a comment followed by “just sayin’” is a waste of both the author’s and reader’s time. Rant over. I just said it.3 points
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3 points
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I'd rather this one, 15% off and the gc is emailed very quickly http://www.ebay.com/itm/Toys-R-Us-Gift-Card-25-50-100-Email-delivery-/2818162770793 points
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^ Yes, please! We love these LEGO Justice League movies. They're pretty good. And I'm loving the minifigs. My only complaint - the number of minifigs they show in these films that are lacking a real world minifig. I'd love to have a Batmite, Guy Gardner, Giganta, Cheetah, Bizarro (I know), Bane big fig, and Desaad.3 points
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3 points
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3 points
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For some reason all I can think of it as another way to try to track resellers.2 points
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I'll go on record saying the build is fun and the Inquisitor is a really well designed minifig. The TFA TIE price is pretty high--more pieces, I'll grant, but high. I like this one down the road. We won't have another grand inquisitor like this for a long time, if ever.2 points
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As someone who's been trading the financial markets for over 2 decades, I find this Lego investing trend very interesting. What got me back into Lego was not any article, but opening and building a set that was gifted to me. Only then did I realize how crazy it was out there. I firmly believe the days of multiples of 100s even 1000s percent gains is over. It just won't happen. There will always be a strong secondary market, but not likes of the 10179s, etc... User Vassal on Eurobricks pretty much summed it up. What he/she says is straight out of an economics text book. " ....Some get into it to help subsidize their Lego hobby, I know I have been tempted to do so. However, I fully believe the market just won't hold. There are a couple major items to any market: (1) scarcity and (2) information. There has been a large increase in the number of "resellers" or "investors" in the secondary market the past couple of years. These people are stockpiling massive collections (literally massive, like storage units full) of sets for sale later based on historical times when there was significant scarcity for a particular retired set. With the increase in resellers, scarcity will go down, and profits will go down. We won't see the extreme EOL gains on these sets any longer since there will be literally hundreds, if not thousands in the secondary market. There simply will be too much supply for the demand. Another aspect of scarcity is in my mind, I would rather just buy the sets coming out from Lego at much cheaper prices. Lego investors are primarily targeting AFOLs coming out of the dark ages. As a recent AFOL out of the dark ages, I have wanted retired sets, but filled that void with new sets coming out as I can't pay the prices for the retired sets on the secondary market. I can buy loads of sets with thousands of pieces for the price of a Green Grocer. " Information: This will hit the Lego secondary market in a couple of ways. Information regarding Lego investing is becoming widely disseminated. With stocks (pretty much worldwide), there is widely available information out in the public. Any information not in the public is illegal to make investment decisions on. Due to this, stocks will pretty much reprice based on any information out in the public, and no one usually has information that the general public don't. This is the efficient market theory which minimizes the quick profits. The same will occur with Lego, it is no longer a secret regarding the money to be made with them. That information will bring down the price as more and more investors flood to sell (back to scarcity), and there will no longer be a price gap due to misinformation (few people knowing the value of Lego retired sets).It isn't the resellers that ramp up the prices, but the buyers who buy at those prices. If you have no buyers at a particular price point, sellers won't sell. The prices wouldn't be where they are if there wasn't a market for them at that price.I only do get frustrated with them purchasing up all the deals so quickly, but I don't know that it is them solely responsible for out of stock items. I don't have anything against them personally, as I know there are lots making good money. To each there own, but these are my personal thoughts on the future of the Lego secondary market.I hope to some degree parting out stays around as I do like being able to stock up on a lot of certain pieces rather than trying to buy whole sets with pieces and minifigures I don't need or want. "2 points
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2 points
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I also built the arcade pack. The one thing that struck me was the little defender game has lovely printed pieces but big $200 sets have a bunch of stickers2 points
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2 points
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2 points
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I'm not knocking it, it is a good deal. But I also don't deal with Walmart due to their terrible shipping practices. I can get just as good a deal later in the life cycle of this set and not have to deal with them. Simple as that.2 points
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Dear Timmy, I am sorry for taking ALL of the shark guys. And the native mommies. Out of all the cases. Your friend, That Creepy Guy Smooshing the Lego.2 points
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Now featured on Amazon 41058 - Friends: Heartlake Shopping Mall - $71.99 (35% off) 42050 - Technic: Drag Racer - $63.88 (20% off)2 points
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Once tax kicks in it becomes not an amazing deal and pretty much the same as 5x ebay bucks.2 points
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One wing just spins you round, baby, right round like a record, baby, right round round round.2 points
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I'm in for one of those...Figure I can go scoop up the Louvre, Berlin with this & the member 10% off and have a little left for something else. Thank you @gbg108 I've been looking for some more architecture to build and 37% off will do me just fine.2 points
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2 points
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2 points
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Priority flat rate padded envelopes are your best friend. Holds about 20oz and ships for $6.102 points
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Cue multiple postings about it being a trap. That being said...I thought it was weird too.2 points
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2 points
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Just requested a price match at amazon. With the price hidden not sure they will but it's worth a shot.2 points
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I have no doubt you're right from the reseller POV, given the dubious availability outside the US, but the buy-in for casuals was pretty high IMO and too much stock was left over at the end of the promotion. I never bought any of the mini-modulars because I knew there'd be no local sales since people could still walk into TRU and buy them months after the promotion. The minifigure packs had people buying the limit every week and at least locally there was never any stock left over by the end of the week.2 points
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LLCA has two stores outside of the park - one at Sea Life Aquarium and another in the hotel. The selection in both is pretty limited, and as far as polybags are concerned, I don't think they ever carry polybags in either. LLCA doesn't offer a shopper's pass or entry into just "The Big Store." You have to buy admission. However, if you exit the park in under 60 minutes, they will give you a full refund. (They do that as their shopper's pass). If you buy $20 worth of product, you can a refund on your parking ($15), too. There are three places to find polybags - on the map below, they are "The Beginning" #4 (The Big Shop), #5 (Minifigure Marketplace), and Fun Town #34 (LEGO Clubhouse). Those are the three spots that I troll for polybags. Occasionally I find something at the LEGO Clubhouse that I didn't see at the other two. But otherwise, the two at the front usually have everything. The last couple of months they've had polybags there that I haven't really seen anywhere else, though. Plus there are a couple of small exclusives there (holiday sets, wedding set, etc).2 points
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2 points
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Ok, you made me do it. http://www.legoland.com/florida/map-explore/minifigure-trading/2 points
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Or there is a noob investor in your area that saw the 50% off clearance sign and instantly saw dollar signs.2 points
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I'm a fan of this set. Don't have a lot of this one, but have enough to sit back and watch and hopefully real it in, if it does spike. I also think it's one of those sets, like architecture that transcends the mentality that legos are "kids toys". This is one of those sets that you can give to a person really into bird watching and they'll be thrilled.. And secondly... as i've said before in this thread. Bird Watching is a HUGE hobby generating billions of dollars a year.2 points
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2 points
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The mini-modulars appear to perform better in the aftermarket than the minifig packs. That's my observation. Maybe until now...2 points
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2 points
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Look, I Have 60 Death Stars and 100% glad I do, now since 2008 there were plenty times to get them $300 and Lower, when Toys R US had those buy 2 get one free Exclusives were included, so that was about $280 a set, and when Barnes and Noble had them I got 16 for $262.00, so in 3-5 yrs if I can only make $300 on each one I am happy, but they should be $1000 and rising. Just look last year when the SSD retired how many guys on here were saying it would take 3 or more yrs to get to $700, and look at them now. Sure there are plenty out there but people are Cracking everyday just to make a few bucks. So you guys with just a few and selling them now I thing are making a huge mistake, and to sell to pay off your credit card bill, well the big rule is don't go in major debt to buy Lego unless you can pay it off when the bill comes. And guys who think the set should rise big bucks after a few months are living in a dream world. So Unless you have to sell for money that you need now hold on to them. I always stated buying is hard enough, but waiting without cracking is another thing. Ed2 points
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And that's just it. Full RRP + tax on virtually any exclusive is going to leave you right at the break even point after selling fees and shipping. If you sell a DS for $550 on eBay for example (approx. current going rate) you're at about $440 after eBay/PayPal fees and shipping costs, which is within 10 bucks of what you paid for it at full RRP plus tax. So something's got to give or you've only got the aforementioned two choices - hold forever (risk a remake) or liquidate now (just to break even). So how do you create a third option of selling one to two years post-retirement to minimize risk and still make a very meaningful profit? It's not about what you can do now, it's about what you needed to do then. Because if you'd scratched out a way to obtain those same DS for $360 (including any tax) some time last year, you've got about 80 bucks worth of wiggle room now that makes quite a difference in terms of how you view the situation and your options. I'm holding about 40 large exclusives at the moment that have all retired in the last year (DS,ToO,R5,MSC,Tumbler) or *allegedly* (cough) on the verge of retiring (PS,EV), in addition to other "might as well be exclusives due to size and/or popularity" like AT-AT,ISD,etc. and "maybe retiring in a year or two" (another cough) like SC,Slave1,PC,FM,etc. Obviously 40 is a small number around here, especially when you clarify that is all of them (combined). I've got a dozen Tumblers and 3 or 4 of everything else. So I'm not going to win any volume prizes, but the average total cost of everything I'm holding is right around 20% less than RRP. My three DS were $375, my MSC around $195, my dozen Tumblers at a cool $143, Slave I at $145, FM at $122, ISD at $83, etc. These are all averages for each individual set, and always include any tax I might have paid. I maintain an excel spreadsheet that keeps track of all of this. I don't buy a lot of anything because I can't score these prices every day. I have to wait for them. I have to prepare for the right moment, and then when I'm ready I only have enough "magic" to get one, never two or three. One example: I stock up on TRU gift cards at about 20-25% off flipping eBay GC and eBay bucks and just being patient and waiting for the best GC deals. Then I wait for the 20% off coupon, then I find the Slave I in store at TRU, then I pounce. $127. There are other avenues that I won't go into but most involve eBay bucks promos mixed with gift card deals that pop up and other SAH promos, etc. I was holding about $300 worth of well-discounted eBay GC a couple months ago and a 5x bucks promo hit and a brand new Sandcrawler popped up for $270 and I bought it, coming out to a grand total of about $221. It showed up in near mint condition (as good as what I get from SAH) and now it sits in the closet acquired for almost 25% off RRP. So I only pull the trigger when I have the perfect storm in place, which doesn't happen very often. For example last fall when Target had 15% off on all exclusives for about 12 hours and this whole site went bananas, I didn't buy a single thing because I didn't have discounted Target GC and couldn't obtain them on such short notice. 15% off minus 7% tax is only 8% off MSRP, not even close to the 20% off I'm looking for. My storage space is pretty limited so I'd rather wait and get those exclusives slowly, one at a time, over time, paying my prices, than get them just to have them because there's a small sale going on. Sorry this kind of derailed from the DS thread, but it was intended to be pertinent to the DS situation.2 points
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2 points
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No, you won't, and I just can't stop buying today, bought 6 Jokerlands for £48 each, and 9 Flatiron buildings for £18 each. Dam you Flubit!1 point
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1 point