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And that's just it. Full RRP + tax on virtually any exclusive is going to leave you right at the break even point after selling fees and shipping. If you sell a DS for $550 on eBay for example (approx. current going rate) you're at about $440 after eBay/PayPal fees and shipping costs, which is within 10 bucks of what you paid for it at full RRP plus tax. So something's got to give or you've only got the aforementioned two choices - hold forever (risk a remake) or liquidate now (just to break even). So how do you create a third option of selling one to two years post-retirement to minimize risk and still make a very meaningful profit? It's not about what you can do now, it's about what you needed to do then. Because if you'd scratched out a way to obtain those same DS for $360 (including any tax) some time last year, you've got about 80 bucks worth of wiggle room now that makes quite a difference in terms of how you view the situation and your options. I'm holding about 40 large exclusives at the moment that have all retired in the last year (DS,ToO,R5,MSC,Tumbler) or *allegedly* (cough) on the verge of retiring (PS,EV), in addition to other "might as well be exclusives due to size and/or popularity" like AT-AT,ISD,etc. and "maybe retiring in a year or two" (another cough) like SC,Slave1,PC,FM,etc. Obviously 40 is a small number around here, especially when you clarify that is all of them (combined). I've got a dozen Tumblers and 3 or 4 of everything else. So I'm not going to win any volume prizes, but the average total cost of everything I'm holding is right around 20% less than RRP. My three DS were $375, my MSC around $195, my dozen Tumblers at a cool $143, Slave I at $145, FM at $122, ISD at $83, etc. These are all averages for each individual set, and always include any tax I might have paid. I maintain an excel spreadsheet that keeps track of all of this. I don't buy a lot of anything because I can't score these prices every day. I have to wait for them. I have to prepare for the right moment, and then when I'm ready I only have enough "magic" to get one, never two or three. One example: I stock up on TRU gift cards at about 20-25% off flipping eBay GC and eBay bucks and just being patient and waiting for the best GC deals. Then I wait for the 20% off coupon, then I find the Slave I in store at TRU, then I pounce. $127. There are other avenues that I won't go into but most involve eBay bucks promos mixed with gift card deals that pop up and other SAH promos, etc. I was holding about $300 worth of well-discounted eBay GC a couple months ago and a 5x bucks promo hit and a brand new Sandcrawler popped up for $270 and I bought it, coming out to a grand total of about $221. It showed up in near mint condition (as good as what I get from SAH) and now it sits in the closet acquired for almost 25% off RRP. So I only pull the trigger when I have the perfect storm in place, which doesn't happen very often. For example last fall when Target had 15% off on all exclusives for about 12 hours and this whole site went bananas, I didn't buy a single thing because I didn't have discounted Target GC and couldn't obtain them on such short notice. 15% off minus 7% tax is only 8% off MSRP, not even close to the 20% off I'm looking for. My storage space is pretty limited so I'd rather wait and get those exclusives slowly, one at a time, over time, paying my prices, than get them just to have them because there's a small sale going on. Sorry this kind of derailed from the DS thread, but it was intended to be pertinent to the DS situation.

TRU gc $100 for $85 again: http://m.ebay.com/itm/Get-a-100-Toys-R-Us-Gift-Card-for-only-85-Email-delivery-/262346454683?nav=SEARCH

All roads lead to the bubble thread

SAVE10A is the coupon code for $10 off $25 at Shopko and this will stack and will work with LEGO already marked down 20% off this week. Worked for me in store for the Crossbones Heist ($9.99) and Geonosis Troopers ($6.35) I got yesterday as mentioned above.

Amazon 60067 - City: Swamp Police Helicopter - $23.99 (40% off) 70145 - Chima: Maula's Mammoth Ice Stomper - $53.41 (41% off) 41093 - Friends: Heartlake Hair Salon - $18.39 (39% off) 41099 - Heartlake Skate Park - $12.63 (37% off)

...because knowing you aren't going to sell is part of collecting.

...and with all this talk, @Ed Mack just sits back and worries about nothing.

Look, I Have 60 Death Stars and 100% glad I do, now since 2008 there were plenty times to get them $300 and Lower, when Toys R US had those buy 2 get one free Exclusives were included, so that was about $280 a set, and when Barnes and Noble had them I got 16 for $262.00, so in 3-5 yrs if I can only make $300 on each one I am happy, but they should be $1000 and rising. Just look last year when the SSD retired how many guys on here were saying it would take 3 or more yrs to get to $700, and look at them now. Sure there are plenty out there but people are Cracking everyday just to make a few bucks. So you guys with just a few and selling them now I thing are making a huge mistake, and to sell to pay off your credit card bill, well the big rule is don't go in major debt to buy Lego unless you can pay it off when the bill comes. And guys who think the set should rise big bucks after a few months are living in a dream world. So Unless you have to sell for money that you need now hold on to them. I always stated buying is hard enough, but waiting without cracking is another thing. Ed

Some of the newer investors might be somewhat irked that a set did not double in a couple months, however, most older investors know that this game is one of patience. However, I think what makes most people concerned is that the time it takes to double has increased over the last 2-3 years. What makes this set in particularly concerning is the sheer VOLUME of sets that is out there. Whether this set was hoarded significantly matters less with this set than any other exclusive, because the volume of sets available is higher than any other set over $200 EVER. Given how long it was available, I am betting it could even compete with sets in the $100-$200 range in terms of number of sets made. Because of the extreme supply for a $400 dollar set, it will make this a mountain to climb in order to reach $800. As Brickology stated, there are currently approximately for sale on Amazon just to get the price to $560. Many seller's don't even put their full inventory in order to create an artificial feeling of scarcity. When you add to cart and see only 1 available, you are more apt to panic buy than seeing 20. Lots of seller's just keep relisting after a sell, in order to create the image of less inventory, and you are buying the last one from them at that price. There are over 200 sellers on Amazon alone, and that does not include people not even posting inventory yet. Plus, the used market is in a constant flux. With the sheer number of Timmy's and AFOL's out there that have built this set, it has so many available used sets, that will affect the MISB market to some degree. Someone is always selling off their kids toys, or there is a change in life situation, and with the number of built sets, there will be a steady supply of these as well. For this set to reach $800 it will take FOREVER. Some people have the mentality of, "Well, the money is spent, what does it matter. Enjoy the ride and wait to see where it goes. I already spent the money, so I can't change anything." Well, while the money is already spent, there is an opportunity cost associated by having your money and storage locked up in 10188. While 10188 is piddling around, hovering at $540-$560, other sets are coming and going, increasing in value faster. Given the 8 years it took to retire, you could in that time have flipped sets 2-3 times in that time span. That is a significant loss, just because you are holding onto 10188, waiting for that magical cash out point. The point is while patience is the name of the game, too much patience costs money in lost opportunity. This set due to volume is not a "Money Loser" per say from an appreciation standpoint. This set will assuredly make money. I don't think anyone is arguing that. It is a "Money Loser" because it was an expensive and large set that is preventing someone from investing in other endeavors. The rate of appreciation on this set due to volume will likely be soooo slow that people will do better cashing out, and flipping something else.

Well yesterday and rebuild, but still.

Over hoarding is the name of the game going fwd my friend . Gonna only get worst

Top rated PowerSeller as of today. 120 problem free sales minus Jessica Scam (lol!) in ten months flat. I'm a contractor in real life and am no stranger to business, have to say this has really opened my eyes to a world of opportunity (not just Lego) in online retail. Thanks for all your help Brickpickers!!!

It might not be, and this is anecdotal, so it might not have widespread applicability, but this set came out right as I was selling off the remainder of my inventory in 2008. At the time, the current flip for many people I know was to sell of your Clone Turbo Tanks, and most went into 10188 HEAVY at the time. One of the selling points was the minifigs. No set had that many minifigs before and this was 8 years ago back when Minifig remakes weren't a dime a dozen, so people were buying these up in droves. The fact that there are so many remakes of those figures really hurts the resale. Before people would be inclined to buy the set just for Royal Guards, but now given the sheer number of minifigs from that set available elsewhere kills a fair amount of the minifig incentive to buy the set. My point is while it might not be as heavily invested in as off recent.... there have been nearly 8 years of people hoarding this set. 8 YEARS!!! George Bush was president! The DJI was at 8000! That is a long time, where various people have had accumulate 10188. I retired from Legovesting and came back in that time span, and I was SHOCKED when I first logged on hear in January to discover this had just recently went OOS. I couldn't believe it. Many of my cohorts who I was legovesting in back in the mid 2000's I had lost touch with, so they had not kept me informed that this had not yet retired, and that turned into a LOOOOONG Term hold. I believe for this to get to 800 is likely in the 4-5 year range at least if not longer. There are 198 sellers on Amazon alone not counting eBay, brick link, and people who don't even have it listed yet. I think while people might not have hoarded it recently, just the length of time people have had to buy this thing makes the supply ASTRONOMICAL compared to almost any other set in Lego history. That further increases the # of used sets as well, further decreasing demand for people willing to buy a used set to build. This set will rise over time, but it will be the slowest burner for a large set in Lego History given the of used and new sets out in the wild. Everyone kept calling out on the Tumbler as the most hoarded set of all time, but in terms of sheer volume 10188 should win out easily. While the Tumbler was eaten alive by hoarders in the last month of it's life span, it was only available for 15-16 months. Lego can only churn out so many $200 dollar sets in that time. The Tumbler is already holding around 330-335 on Amazon, after 2 months of retirement. That's $130 over it's RRP. 10188 is holding at 540 on Amazon. That's $140 over it's RRP. The Tumbler has been retired for a couple months less, and was heralded as THE MOST HOARDED SET OF ALL TIME, based on BP forums. In terms of sheer number of sets sold to hoard per unit time it was. However, volume-wise I am betting that 10188 has the most number sets in reseller hands from a volume standpoint AND the most number of sets in an actual built form as well for a large/exclusive set. Both of which will make it difficult to climb over the next several years.

Not true. I am not happy with remakes. I am not happy with counterfeiting. I have realistic expectations and believe in the product. I see how my son reacts to the LEGO brick and realize there will always be LEGO fans, just like me. I know that long term, not much has changed. After many impatient resellers will unload their stockpiles for little gain, I will be able to see appreciation that is close to historical values. Patience will be rewarded.

Until your wife wants her storage space back

I'm not sure what you are all worried about ... look, the instruction manuals alone are already at $868: http://www.amazon.com/INSTRUCTION-MANUALS-Lego-10188-DEATH/dp/B00FQUMP20

I think they more likely confused UCS for Money Laundering.

Wife spends xxxx i pay off xxxx equal yet opposite = marriage . Don't do it kids

You guys sometimes make it very hard to just enjoy a good cult.

Today all FBA 4- At-At $219 3- Rancor Pit 115 1- Palpatines arrest $177 2- Cantina $98 1- castle dragon $105 I am unloading most of my stuff. I am terrified now with so many new people and when I see the pictures of a new person doing this for 2-4 months and already have 10 tumblers and all the other modulars and such stacked up it really is scary to me. I wish these folks the best but I would rather sit on cash now. I am thinking when most these folks sell they will be not happy with the small returns. This is all extra cash money for me. No CC to pay and therefore no worries if the items sit in the back room, but some will have a rude awakening thinking this is going to fund a home or college for their children. This is for me a few free legos and maybe if lucky a few paid cool ones to admire down the road.

YoYo is offering 15% off some sets when you buy two. It says for new members, but sometimes that doesn't matter. Max discount of $40. Deep Sea Exploration Vessel - 60095 ~$81.50 if you buy two +tax Demolition Site - 60076 ~$61.50 if you buy two +tax Spaceport - 60080 ~$81.50 if you buy two +tax There are others. Found a couple more: Fire Station ~$77 if you buy two +tax Prison Island ~$75 if you buy two +tax They also have the Angry Bird sets at retail. https://www.yoyo.com/p/lego-angry-birds-king-pigs-castle-75826-1244533 https://www.yoyo.com/p/lego-angry-birds-piggy-pirate-ship-75825-1244555 https://www.yoyo.com/p/lego-angry-birds-pig-city-teardown-75824-1244524 https://www.yoyo.com/p/lego-angry-birds-bird-island-egg-heist-75823-1244559

Can I just call you Andrew?

Keep up the info guys. I never pushed out a March update, because there just wasn't much to update. But I will be posting the April update on time.

I don't think this deal has been mentioned yet. http://www.ebay.com/itm/Buy-a-100-Staples-Gift-Card-for-only-85-Email-delivery/281967378583?hash=item41a690c097&_trkparms=5374%3AFeatured%7C5373%3A0 Now we just need a 40% off coupon deal!

touché Of course, knowing when to sell is part of selling.

41104 to that as well $17.59 (41% off)

All I know is that I'm greatly reducing the number of large exclusives in my portfolio for just these reasons. As things stand now, all exclusives are hoarded. Every investor thinks that no matter how many sets of a large exclusive that you buy, you'll at least double your money within a year or two post retirement. We all know that isn't case anymore. The Lego investing game is now mostly about finding sets at well below RRP and flipping them for scant profit. With floor space limited at retailers and TLG releasing new sets every two months, hitting as many singles and doubles with "normal" sets is the way to go IMHO. Can you make a decent profit when 3 years from now, the DS is sellling at $550 and PS is $220? By that time, I'll have flipped 10 Ant-Man sets into 20 Jedi Interceptors and so on and so forth.

Dear BPers, have you thought about the possibility that after the sets reach the initial after retirement price: MSRP+tax+eBay fees+shipping, the value never goes up again no matter how long you hold the sets? I don't think this idea is that insane anymore, considering over production, over hoarding, and possible remakes...... Well, that's when Lego investment dies.

For those of you who have a Shopko in town: 20% off already reduced merchandise (excluding clearance) with this coupon (expires wednesday). Sounds like it would work with the SPRING4/SPRING50 as well, as long as that code works in store too.

Would be a first for shopko, have never excluded Lego in the past

Mid term hold is no longer profitable as sets are losing value after the post EOL bump, quick flipping has already proved not to be for some sets (SW, Advents) so when that transfers to all sets because they are all over hoarded, the only investment alternatives will be 0 cost buy in or long long term hoard. If everyone goes long then that won´t be profitable either but then the market will have weeded out most of the fairweather investors and supply should eventually go back to lower levels that will make it proifitable again. What cannot be estimated is the demand side - what will happen if Lego and/or SW becomes less popular than it is now?

With the recent uptick in demand for all things Star Wars due to the new movies, I think you will be pleasantly surprised by the performance of many non Original Trilogy sets. Just look at what some of the recently retired Prequel, Clone Wars, and EU sets were selling for in December. Many of them are still selling at very high prices.

You are making too much sense. You are not going to be liked very well around here Let's put it this way, fans of this set have been waiting 3-7 years for its retirement, what's 5 more years between friends

Sold about a quarter of my total collection.... replaced most of it with new inventory. Getting better at picking short term winners, picked up 16 75054's right before Xmas (saw that coming a mile away). Still have a mix of dud's to sell. A lot winners too though. Nice thing is that you usually get your all of your money out of the duds, try that in the stock market! I would say sales are split between Canada and the US. Alberta bought a lot of Lego right before Xmas and then right after but has completely disappeared since. Lot of stuff goes to Ontario, some to Quebec some to BC. Starting to diversify, stocking up on things that are undervalued, or do well due to currency arbitrage across a border. Getting into near classic cars. The auctions on Catawiki of Modern Classics has really peaked my interest. Picked up two low km 1991 BMW's in the last month. Want a dozen.

What's really baffling is why people think that the retired product tag has any impact whatsoever on how a product performs. By the time the tag appears, the product is long gone and, regardless, is not something that many, if any, consumers pay any attention to.

Could be like me and just paying off his wife's credit card.

I have ZERO 10188. Time to see if I am actually wise or a fool

Well, you make a fair point, and I do realize this is a Lego specific site, and my loyalty to Lego deals - particularly the more hidden ones - will be to this site. I also understand it had the potential to kill the deal faster, but it's not my intention to do that with any consistency. My thought this time was that because toys r us posted to their front page 40% off Lego it was bound to get out. Since slickdeals has helped me find non-Lego deals that often times help fuel my Lego love (like rolling syw points on non-Lego purchases or sales on gift cards to sites for Lego) I thought I'd give back with the remote possibility that a Lego lover could actually not be a brickpicker subscriber and benefit from the heads up. I understand some in the community wanting to keep Lego more selective. I am just more of the mindframe that the more people are exposed and interested the more fantastic Lego and duplo (huge duplo fan) sets are made. last point. I will always post deals here first. I fully intend to give my fellow brickpickers first bite at the apple, even if I want others a chance at the core...

I must sadly disagree with you again. These are quite good rebel representatives, mixed and ragtag. For a rebel army you need characters like these. Plus why do regular cannon fodder troopers be in the movies personally?

First rule of BP. You don't talk about deals outside of BP.

3 recent builds. 4768 - Durmstrang ship - I picked this up in a bulk bin and I am surprised at how nice it looks. On Friday and Saturday, I built the New York City skyline and my fiancee built the Wall-E set. New York City is well designed, particularly the Chrysler building. And Wall-E is already famous on the forum... go and get one to build and some to hold.

I already lost patience on the T1. I can't imagine holding onto a pile of these huge DS boxes for years while they continue to produce them, regardless of discount or buy-in. At some point you have to consider the opportunity cost of not investing in other sets, big or small.

Getting the thread back on track. It's finished. Probably the best value UCS set I've built recently. One big chunk of a ship compared with my UCS Tie Fighter.

Finally finished the MF 75105 with my almost 6 year old boy. Feels good to be done. It's kinda a beast to move around...we really enjoyed the build for the most part. Now the question is where to put it...

Make sure you're on the right sight. That sounds like you might be on the Canadian site. I double checked the US site, and prices are coming up correct for me.

Haha, I do like a good Sunday witch hunt roasting.

Unfortunately, I'm a little too generous with my survey. If you took the coupon, you are excellent...

Take it easy dude. I'd like to see you try and create any video content in the middle of a packed small lego booth where lego gives you a time limit to shoot.