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I count 64 supporters so far today. Wonderful. Over 25k, and I know we can make it to 30K. When we get to $29,700 I will put in another $300 to get us there. Keep spreading the word.7 points
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Welcome to another BigBlueDogBricks post that will surely set the Lego investing world afire: today size matters, as we delve deep into the largest sub-theme sets to see what ol' Veegs thinks will be worth targeting. As always, you (hopefully) know your region best and also read the Daily Deal thread so when these sets can be had with a solid discount you are ready, metaphorically, trunk popped, to throw Lego sets in. So why are these large sets often my bread and butter as an investor? Perhaps a couple factors: Benefits of Large, Non-Exclusive Sets 1) Kids get the smaller sets for lesser occasions and want the biggest one for Christmas. Sometimes that large set is gone by the parents get around to buying it. Pretty simple. Bad for Timmy's parents, good for the secondary market, good for Timmy when he opens his Indominus Rex. 2) I have the boxes – with the right sized box that fits most large sets, I can ship to neighboring provinces for around $12-13 CAD, and even to the coasts for $20 or under. I therefore find it easy most of the time to have the lowest price + shipping for Canada. Having a snug (but not too snug) box that minimizes your empty space will make you more competitive as a seller, and since a lot of themes have a desirable 'large' set, getting a bundle of good boxes can make a big difference. 3) Sales: While exclusives have been much harder to get on sale (no impossible, but definitely harder) some of the sets on my list will likely be purchased by Brickpickers from 25-50% off or more in the next year. I might not nibble early in the year at a paltry 20% off for most of these, but as the year goes on and more information about future waves comes out (helping me decide which are most likely to move to sold out/retired quickest) I might be tempted. For example, 20% off Cinderella's Romantic Castle would probably be enough for me as (at least in Canada) getting Disney Princess sets at more than 20% off has been terribly difficult since the line launched. City sets, however, will begin to interest me at 30% off or more. Anything close to the full MSRP of $149.99 CAD makes me blanch. 2016 Large Sets Shopping List I targeted sets in the $75 CAD and over range, as long as they aren't from the Hard to Find section of the official Lego site. In the $75-100 range there are 37 sets, and in the $100+ range there are 82. Granted, from this list are a whole lot of sold out sets that haven't been marked 'retired' yet, but are for all intents and purposes gone, but there are still quite a few options. I pored over these sets to come up with those that I think should be purchased this year. At this point, as they are available from Shop at Home (and other retailers, or will be as restocking takes place after a busy holiday season) these are not MSRP buys. These are sets that I want to keep an eye on when I'm out running errands with the kids, or when I'm scanning flyers, so that when I see a big enough discount I can nab them or know which stores have them in droves (and might slap a clearance tag on them). I also stayed away from any sets released in the last few months in general unless I think they might have a short production run. 1. Imperial Shuttle Tyderium 75094: Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from Walmart Probably no surprise here – Original Trilogy, Star Wars is hot and will likely stay pretty hot for some time. Iconic ship (to most?) and ships tend to do a little better than playsets in my experience. This jumps out at me like the AT-AT and Imperial Star Destroyer did. 2. Indominus Rex Breakout 75919: Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from Walmart Dinosaurs rule, paleontologists drool! Despite that not making much sense, I can assure you that the I-Rex sells, and even before Jurassic world, kids loved and bought Dinos. The previous Dino range was easy to profit from for the savvy investor and I have a hard time believing The Lego Group is going to devote enough production capacity to this set to keep it widely in stock for Christmas 2016 – and even if they do, I can't see buying I-Rex at a discount ever being a long term money losing proposition. 3. Cinderella's Romantic Castle 41055: Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from Walmart The rumored summer castle set for Belle leads me to believe we might finally get a large Disney Princess retirement. I think it is a worthy gamble. The biggest Friends set to retire (Summer Riding Camp) did well for me (and others) and I want to be in on the ground floor here. Yes, a couple small sets retired last year, and this year brought some mid-sized action (Cindy's carriage and Rapunzel's Creativity Tower) but I'm willing to bet this is one worth having. If all else fails, I'll open several and build my daughter a truly massive princess castle. 4. Scooby Doo Mystery Mansion 75904: Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from Walmart I tend to believe sales for Scooby weren't up to par. I'm basing that on anecdotal evidence (tons in stock around me) as well as the fact that a few times the Scooby package has been on sale, including before Christmas. With #chaos in mind, I tend to think this is a one and done wave and will be gone this time next year. Of course, if another wave materializes (although nothing from the summer set leaks indicate Scooby is getting more sets) I'd reconsider my opinion, but with a mansion and the mystery machine in wave one, I think wave two would be a harder sell to consumers. I've been eying local stock and am hoping for a 40-50% clearance. 5. City Spaceport 60080: Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from Walmart What is going on with CITY!!?? Some more sets with very short runs mixed with my memory of The Mine 4204 being available forever. As a mini sub-theme with fewer sets than a traditional City sub-theme, I'm not sold on this having a long availability. Space is popular – I sincerely thank TLG for letting me sell all my old spaceports before releasing this update – and if I can get this with a decent discount I'll bite. I don't believe as strongly as some others on this list that it is going to be gone this time next year, but it just might. 6. Lego Friends Heartlake Grand Hotel 41101: Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from Walmart Probably not going anywhere anytime soon, but scarcity around Christmas had this selling well. That puts it on my radar. At this point in the product cycle (lean months over the spring summer coming up) before presumably another holiday boost, this might be the best time to get some on sale in any kind of number, and this is one I wouldn't mind having quite a few of. 7. City Deep Sea Operations Base/Exploration Vessel 60096 & 60095: Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from Walmart These are down on the list, but I still wouldn't pass on these with a good sale. The base seems harder to find in store around me, and scarcity often breeds profitability, so I might give this a slight nod. I'm also a little down on the vessel with two more bloody City sets with boats just hitting shelves (police boat & fire boat). I won't go deep on these unless we're talking clearance prices. 8. Heartlake Airport 41109: Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from Walmart A Toys R Us exclusive in Canada, this set tickles my fancy. I did well with the old passenger plane and the Cargo terminal, so I'm inclined to think even a pink and purple plane can soar into profit-land. Friends sets tend to stick around sometimes – I'm looking at you Devil Dolphin Cruiser, but with it only being at TRU up here in the north, I might have to get a couple if it goes on sale at some point this year. It is on my radar, but distant. Final Thoughts Why did I stop at eight? Besides it being a lucky number for me, I also suffer from something called 'finite resources' and 'finite space'. I would rather have quite a few multiples of the sets on this list than skimping on these to nab random clearance deals. Not that I won't be tempted by clearance finds, but I probably will rein myself in and stick to getting sets I believe in, in numbers big enough to need another order of 24x16x4 inch shipping boxes. Happy hunting! Veegs (BigBlueDogBricks) View full blog article6 points
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Here's how I see it: at the moment Lego dropped the "retiring soon" tag, the number of Tumblers in existence was already fixed - it was finite. Lego was finished producing them and it was just a matter of when they would sell out, not if. All the "advance warning" did was accelerate that process by several months. So every "end user" who would have bought a Tumbler in March of 2016, or June of 2016, or November of 2016 from Lego or Amazon or wherever else for RRP is now going to buy one from us for 50% to 100% more. Plus, the timing was such that a LOT of new kids on the block bought these en masse and they are the same people flipping them now for $20-$50 profits with no idea how much more they would be making if they just had a little patience. Put differently, which would you prefer: a 16 month production and then one month for everybody to stock up, or a five year production and then disappearing without advance notice?5 points
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at this point in the tumbler game, you'd be crazy to not keep it. this is pretty minor and i'm a total box queen. 6 months ago - sure i'd return it. now is not 6 months ago.5 points
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Welcome to another BigBlueDogBricks post that will surely set the Lego investing world afire: today size matters, as we delve deep into the largest sub-theme sets to see what ol' Veegs thinks will be worth targeting. As always, you (hopefully) know your region best and also read the Daily Deal thread so when these sets can be had with a solid discount you are ready, metaphorically, trunk popped, to throw Lego sets in. So why are these large sets often my bread and butter as an investor? Perhaps a couple factors: Benefits of Large, Non-Exclusive Sets 1) Kids get the smaller sets for lesser occasions and want the biggest one for Christmas. Sometimes that large set is gone by the parents get around to buying it. Pretty simple. Bad for Timmy's parents, good for the secondary market, good for Timmy when he opens his Indominus Rex. 2) I have the boxes – with the right sized box that fits most large sets, I can ship to neighboring provinces for around $12-13 CAD, and even to the coasts for $20 or under. I therefore find it easy most of the time to have the lowest price + shipping for Canada. Having a snug (but not too snug) box that minimizes your empty space will make you more competitive as a seller, and since a lot of themes have a desirable 'large' set, getting a bundle of good boxes can make a big difference. 3) Sales: While exclusives have been much harder to get on sale (no impossible, but definitely harder) some of the sets on my list will likely be purchased by Brickpickers from 25-50% off or more in the next year. I might not nibble early in the year at a paltry 20% off for most of these, but as the year goes on and more information about future waves comes out (helping me decide which are most likely to move to sold out/retired quickest) I might be tempted. For example, 20% off Cinderella's Romantic Castle would probably be enough for me as (at least in Canada) getting Disney Princess sets at more than 20% off has been terribly difficult since the line launched. City sets, however, will begin to interest me at 30% off or more. Anything close to the full MSRP of $149.99 CAD makes me blanch. 2016 Large Sets Shopping List I targeted sets in the $75 CAD and over range, as long as they aren't from the Hard to Find section of the official Lego site. In the $75-100 range there are 37 sets, and in the $100+ range there are 82. Granted, from this list are a whole lot of sold out sets that haven't been marked 'retired' yet, but are for all intents and purposes gone, but there are still quite a few options. I pored over these sets to come up with those that I think should be purchased this year. At this point, as they are available from Shop at Home (and other retailers, or will be as restocking takes place after a busy holiday season) these are not MSRP buys. These are sets that I want to keep an eye on when I'm out running errands with the kids, or when I'm scanning flyers, so that when I see a big enough discount I can nab them or know which stores have them in droves (and might slap a clearance tag on them). I also stayed away from any sets released in the last few months in general unless I think they might have a short production run. 1. Imperial Shuttle Tyderium 75094: Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from Walmart Probably no surprise here – Original Trilogy, Star Wars is hot and will likely stay pretty hot for some time. Iconic ship (to most?) and ships tend to do a little better than playsets in my experience. This jumps out at me like the AT-AT and Imperial Star Destroyer did. 2. Indominus Rex Breakout 75919: Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from Walmart Dinosaurs rule, paleontologists drool! Despite that not making much sense, I can assure you that the I-Rex sells, and even before Jurassic world, kids loved and bought Dinos. The previous Dino range was easy to profit from for the savvy investor and I have a hard time believing The Lego Group is going to devote enough production capacity to this set to keep it widely in stock for Christmas 2016 – and even if they do, I can't see buying I-Rex at a discount ever being a long term money losing proposition. 3. Cinderella's Romantic Castle 41055: Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from Walmart The rumored summer castle set for Belle leads me to believe we might finally get a large Disney Princess retirement. I think it is a worthy gamble. The biggest Friends set to retire (Summer Riding Camp) did well for me (and others) and I want to be in on the ground floor here. Yes, a couple small sets retired last year, and this year brought some mid-sized action (Cindy's carriage and Rapunzel's Creativity Tower) but I'm willing to bet this is one worth having. If all else fails, I'll open several and build my daughter a truly massive princess castle. 4. Scooby Doo Mystery Mansion 75904: Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from Walmart I tend to believe sales for Scooby weren't up to par. I'm basing that on anecdotal evidence (tons in stock around me) as well as the fact that a few times the Scooby package has been on sale, including before Christmas. With #chaos in mind, I tend to think this is a one and done wave and will be gone this time next year. Of course, if another wave materializes (although nothing from the summer set leaks indicate Scooby is getting more sets) I'd reconsider my opinion, but with a mansion and the mystery machine in wave one, I think wave two would be a harder sell to consumers. I've been eying local stock and am hoping for a 40-50% clearance. 5. City Spaceport 60080: Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from Walmart What is going on with CITY!!?? Some more sets with very short runs mixed with my memory of The Mine 4204 being available forever. As a mini sub-theme with fewer sets than a traditional City sub-theme, I'm not sold on this having a long availability. Space is popular – I sincerely thank TLG for letting me sell all my old spaceports before releasing this update – and if I can get this with a decent discount I'll bite. I don't believe as strongly as some others on this list that it is going to be gone this time next year, but it just might. 6. Lego Friends Heartlake Grand Hotel 41101: Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from Walmart Probably not going anywhere anytime soon, but scarcity around Christmas had this selling well. That puts it on my radar. At this point in the product cycle (lean months over the spring summer coming up) before presumably another holiday boost, this might be the best time to get some on sale in any kind of number, and this is one I wouldn't mind having quite a few of. 7. City Deep Sea Operations Base/Exploration Vessel 60096 & 60095: Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from Walmart These are down on the list, but I still wouldn't pass on these with a good sale. The base seems harder to find in store around me, and scarcity often breeds profitability, so I might give this a slight nod. I'm also a little down on the vessel with two more bloody City sets with boats just hitting shelves (police boat & fire boat). I won't go deep on these unless we're talking clearance prices. 8. Heartlake Airport 41109: Buy from LEGO | Buy from Amazon | Buy from Walmart A Toys R Us exclusive in Canada, this set tickles my fancy. I did well with the old passenger plane and the Cargo terminal, so I'm inclined to think even a pink and purple plane can soar into profit-land. Friends sets tend to stick around sometimes – I'm looking at you Devil Dolphin Cruiser, but with it only being at TRU up here in the north, I might have to get a couple if it goes on sale at some point this year. It is on my radar, but distant. Final Thoughts Why did I stop at eight? Besides it being a lucky number for me, I also suffer from something called 'finite resources' and 'finite space'. I would rather have quite a few multiples of the sets on this list than skimping on these to nab random clearance deals. Not that I won't be tempted by clearance finds, but I probably will rein myself in and stick to getting sets I believe in, in numbers big enough to need another order of 24x16x4 inch shipping boxes. Happy hunting! Veegs (BigBlueDogBricks)4 points
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You might want to prepare yourself for an 'unexpected' retirement then. Ideas sets haven't previously passed the 2 year production cycle Ideas and Ghostbusters are two separate themes so I don't consider them dependent on each other being in production A rumour suggests a new Ecto will be released in June based on the film with the female characters Although the Ghostbusters HQ references the Ecto-1 in its description, modulars will display retired sets on the rear of its boxes so I don't see this being a factor.4 points
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Heres a BIG shout out to Lego for finally putting a minifig in a wheelchair! It is in set 60134, kind of a park setting. As a father of one boy in a chair, and another who is almost wheelchair bound, this is a sight for sore eyes. My boys have MOC'd many wheelchairs, but it is refreshing to see them design a specific wheelchair piece. Thank you Lego!4 points
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Now this Creator set offers a lot of bang for your buck (however much that will be) between the main model of a camper to the alternates with a home then fancy yacht. Far out.3 points
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Just bought a few tickets to show my support and to thank the Mack brothers for all they do with this site. Take it from a former St. Paul fundraiser procrastinator, you will be glad you joined in!3 points
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Today a change in the Polybag's display boxes design caught my eye. TLG now cleverly depicts the finished models on the box, rather than showing a picture of two smiling kids. Plus, the themes are mentioned on the front flap. I think this design change will attract more kids and parents to these polybags.3 points
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In a scene from the gut-busting movie History of the World, Part 1, Mel Brooks, playing the role of Moses, brings 3 stone tablets received from the hand of God down Mt. Sinai to the people of ancient Israel. As he takes the final steps of his harrowing trip, Moses steps in front of an assembled throng and proclaims in a booming voice, “I PRESENT TO YOU THESE FIFTEEN…”, accidentally drops one of the three tablets he’s holding and quips, “Oy, ten…TEN COMMANDMENTS FOR ALL TO OBEY!” As God himself gave his fifteen laws to Mel Brooks, veteran Brickpicker members have bequeathed their own investing rules to the rest of the Brickpicker faithful. These rules can be found dotted throughout the Discussion forum, Evaluation Corner articles and Investing Blog, and they provide investors with a wide array of plausibly accurate, seemingly tried and true Lego investing truisms intended to help new investors develop their own portfolios. While these axioms usually seem plausible and well-reasoned, as I have progressed as a Lego investor I’ve found most of them needed a thorough assessment to determine their accuracy. Let’s dive into the gospel according to Brickpicker members to see what these truisms are, and whether they hold water: Commandment #1: Thou shalt buy what you like This is probably the number one piece of advice given on this website, and I’m always floored by what bad advice this could potentially be. The logic seems sound: buy what you like so if the set goes belly up in the aftermarket, you can always build the set. From a financial perspective, executing this strategy is suicide for returns from your portfolio. As a simple example, let’s assume I had the following portfolio I wanted to liquidate today: click to enlarge Portfolio return if you decide to build 8070 is [($167 + $71) – $270] / $270 = -12%. Portfolio return if you decide to sell 8070 at a loss is [($60+$167+$71) - $270] / $270 = +10% From a financial perspective, opening the box and building the set will lead to a loss for this portfolio (assuming it’s not sold as a used set). The smaller collector-investor is especially susceptible since smaller portfolios can’t absorb the loss of entire sets. For people that invest in more than one of a set, this truism poses another issue – who wants to build and display more than one copy of the same set? Buy the sets you like and build them, but keep them separate from your investment portfolio. Also, limiting your portfolio to only certain themes you like not only limits portfolio diversity, but it can limit low risk sources of profit. Barring a catastrophic economic collapse, your investment sets will always have some value and profit-driven investors will always try to squeeze as much profit out of each set to protect their portfolio’s return. This commandment is bogus. Invest in profit potential, not sets you would like to build. Commandment #2: Thou shalt purchase trains One of my first eye openers after joining BP was learning the popularity of Lego trains. Before Brickpicker, I never knew the depth of the theme: Lego trains appeared as early as 1966, and new sets have been routinely released ever since. As a kid, I always thought these trains were great toys (although I never had my own), but I only learned of their profit potential after tracking the explosive profit of the retired Maersk Train. After perusing the train forum, I was amazed at the confidence members had in recommending trains for future profit potential and decided to dig a little deeper into the performance of the secondary train market. Are BP members correct about train returns? Here are all of the retired train sets released since 2002 excluding the recently retired yellow cargo train: click to enlarge The chart above should leave no question to the merits of this theme: Lego Trains must become at least a part of any serious Lego investor’s portfolio. Almost every train set retired before 2011 has provided incredible returns, and the recently retired sets are already showing nice returns. The only apparent exception, 4534 Lego Express, has a disappointing (yet still acceptable) 25% return, but that’s likely because 4535 Lego Express Deluxe is a better version of this set (with the same cars as 4534) that was released at the same time. This commandment belongs on a Kevlar tablet and should be screamed from the top of Mt. Sinai! Commandment #3: Thou shalt not invest in City For some reason, Brickpicker members tend to be bearish on the Lego City theme. While most believe the Modular and train sets will be winners, they don’t believe in much of the rest of the theme, citing frequent updates as the primary reason to stay away. In breaking down the City theme, I found four major subthemes: Police, Fire, Vehicles, and a category of rotating subthemes that have included marina, construction, farming, airport and most recently mining. For the most part, fig-sets, vehicles and buildings account for all the sets in each of these subthemes. Within the Police and Fire lines, I did find a few winners: Police click to enlarge Fire click to enlarge Interestingly, these are the same sets investors have cautioned against investing in because of the frequent updates, yet returns from the sets are solid and fairly consistent across the board. The only outlier is 7208, but this set was just retired late last year and should be given more time to appreciate. While these sets will likely not spike in value immediately after retirement, police and fire stations appear to provide strong and steady gains while adding some diversity to your portfolio. Even more enticing are sets from rotating subthemes such as farming, mining, airport and marina sets. Consider the performance of these sets: click to enlarge Those are some great numbers from sets retired a few short years ago. Keep your eyes open for larger, more striking sets in these rotating sub-theme lines as they have the potential to deliver some sizable returns. This commandment stinks – toss this tablet in the rock pile for pulverizing. Commandment #4: Thou shalt buy Star Wars Lego sets Commandment #4a: Thou shalt buy Ultimate Collector Series sets Since its inception, the Star Wars Lego theme has drawn collectors, and they in turn have drawn investors to the theme. This commandment and its corollary seem like two variations of the same meme. Yet, after reading Ed’s Evaluation Corner article about the bottom 50 performing sets, I was shocked to learn there were some Star Wars sets among the worst losers. After digging a little deeper, I found the entire Star Wars theme sports a CAGR of 9%, just below the 11% theme average CAGR, and not as high as I would expect from the most discussed theme on Brickpicker. While everyone knows how incredible the Ultimate Collectors Series have performed, I began to wonder if the UCS subtheme wasn’t propping up the performance of the entire Star Wars theme. To determine this, I independently calculated the average annual growth rate of the Star Wars UCS subtheme and, unsurprisingly, it was an incredible 29%. For a theme that’s been around 13 years, that is phenomenal annual growth! If the UCS subtheme sets were removed from the Star Wars theme, SW’s underwhelming 9% average CAGR would drop even further. The average Star Wars set isn’t performing strongly after retirement, and investors should consider limiting Star Wars purchases for other sets. While there will always be some general Star Wars sets that will return a profit (I expect 7965 to perform well post-EOL), the true stars are Ultimate Collector Series sets. Etch commandment #4a into the tablet, and get rid of commandment #4. There is one small note of caution, however. The latest retired UCS set is 10215 Obi-Wan’s Jedi Starfighter, and early returns haven’t been strong. It’s the only UCS set with a negative CAGR and while it while likely grow, it will probably be the worst performing USC set moving forward. Commandment #5 – Thou shalt not buy Chima I went into depth in an Evaluation Corner article about the potential of the Chima line, so please read it for more specific information. To summarize, now is not the time to add Chima to your investment portfolio because retailers haven’t discounted Chima sets and the television series hasn’t begun in earnest. With the absolute earliest retirement date for the first wave of sets at the end of 2013, there will be plenty of time to purchase Chima sets. With good pre- or post-Christmas discounts, this theme will be ripe for investing if the television show takes off. This commandment remains valid for now, but could be flat-out wrong by Christmas if the TV show maintains its early ratings. Be prepared to invest. Commandment #6: Thou shalt only purchase larger sets The logic behind this truism is simple: you can gain more profit for less work by selling a few well performing larger sets rather than a large number of small sets. For the small collector-investor, this is especially true since hobby time is usually in shorter supply than work time or family time. The allure of netting big profits from larger sets is also strong - wouldn’t everyone rather hit the Powerball jackpot rather than win a prize from a scratch-off ticket? However, there are reasons to consider including small sets in your portfolio. Purchasing a variety of asset classes (or themes in Lego investing) with a variety of set sizes helps to diversify portfolio risk. Also, a higher yielding, smaller set will provide higher rates of return due its smaller cost basis, and it will always be easier to sell for the same reason assuming equivalent demand to the larger set. If you’re worried about a bubble, smaller sets will be easier to liquidate in a bear market. The tribe has spoken: this commandment should be stricken from the tablet. Commandment #7: Thou shalt measure “value” with price per piece Let’s compare the piece count, MSRP and PPP of two actual Lego sets: Set A: 1,344 pieces, $70 MSRP, $.05/piece Set B: 1,300 pieces, $150 MSRP, $.12/piece Which of the two sets is more valuable? While some would say Set A appears to provide the buyer with more value, the correct response from a seasoned investor would be that it’s impossible to answer the question with the information provided. Here is the post-retirement performance of these same sets: Set A: -$23 loss, -5% CAGR Set B: $635 profit, 14% CAGR As the example illustrates, PPP is a completely meaningless measure of value. Demand drives value; very few consumers, if any, buy a Lego set because it sports a low price per piece. I have a feeling there would be almost no Lego investor that would select 5525 Amusement Park, Set A, over 7191 Ultimate Collector Series X-Wing, Set B, to add to their investment portfolio. This commandment is erroneous and not worth the tablet it’s engraved on. Commandment #8: Thou shalt invest in licensed themes instead of non-licensed themes I have seen this truism sprinkled throughout the Discussion Forum, and was curious if it was actually true. It turns out that among themes with above average CAGR, 6 of 28, or 21%, are licensed, while, 15% of below average themes (8 of 55) are licensed. This 6% difference doesn’t provide a compelling case that licensed themes perform better, so I wouldn’t use it as a rule of thumb. A theme’s secondary market performance will be determined by its demand, not whether it’s licensed. Anyone that invested in Prince of Persia because it was a licensed theme took some real lumps. It’s also telling that 80% of themes with above average CAGR are non-licensed themes. Ninjago, Friends, and Power Miners are all very successful non-licensed themes that beat a majority of licensed themes. This commandment should not be utilized for making investment decisions. Drop that tablet. Commandment #9: Thou shalt invest in Lord of the Rings I have noticed the exuberance of many BP members for the first release of the Lord of the Rings theme, and must admit I was excited for last year’s theme release. From an investment perspective, one would think the first wave of a theme based upon the most popular fantasy epic of all time should translate to high sales and high demand, but let’s try to support this opinion through assessing a similar theme’s prior performance. Harry Potter is also theme based upon a highly popular book series, and could be considered the flagship “wizarding” epic, akin to LOTR’s position in the fantasy genre. The first wave of the HP theme was released way back in 2001, and every set performed well post-EOL: click to enlarge While the table above illustrates the incredible returns from the first year of HP released sets, there is a significant difference between the two themes’ first wave of sets. At the time of Lego’s first HP release in 2001, the Potter craze was still relatively new, and Lego was able to capitalize on the freshness and fervor of Potter-mania. Not so with LOTR: this theme was released after all three movies had already been retired to DVD. While this may temper demand for the first wave of LOTR sets slightly, I still think the large base of LOTR fans will fuel great secondary market sales of all sets of LOTR’s first wave. Additionally, the second wave of LOTR sets includes two awesome, yet-to-be released sets: Pirate Ship Ambush (a ship) and Tower of Orthanc (a mega-build with serious playability and depth). These sets alone should increase the popularity of an already successful theme and ensure the first wave of sets perform well after retirement. Chisel this commandment in stone and put it behind glass! Commandment #10: Thou shalt fear a bubble Besides Lego’s 50% discount off a certain starship, the possibility of a looming Lego investment bubble is the most hotly debated topic on Brickpicker’s Discussion Forum. I don’t want to rehash whether there may or may not be a bubble, but I do want to discuss how to insulate yourself from the fears of one. First, it should go without saying that Lego investors should always consider the RAMIFICATIONS of a bubble before succumbing to the allure of 10179-type profits and plowing a bunch of money into Lego sets. Every investor should ask themselves the following questions: What is my appetite for risk? Am I prepared to lose money? Is this a hobby or is this a job? How much time do I want to spend investing? What is my timeline for making profits? Am I in this for quick money, or long term returns? The answer to these questions should tell you the type of investor you are, and shape your investing strategy. If you have a small appetite for risk, are enjoying Lego investing as a hobby with a small time commitment, and want to make quick profits, your portfolio selections will be much different than someone with a high appetite for risk that is willing to tie their money up for a few years. Those that are risk averse, or fear a bubble, should probably keep their portfolios small for a cycle or two until they’re comfortable with how the Lego secondary market performs, and how small should depend upon your disposable income. Regardless of investment type, the happiest investors always invest with a plan tailored to their specific risk tolerance, activity level and sales duration, and adjust their plan as they learn more about the market and about themselves as investors. In the end, that’s really the only commandment that belongs on the tablet. As always, invest accordingly. *Graphic image for title came from bricktestament.com View full blog article3 points
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And selling at about 1.5 a day. Wonder how long before the credit card bills come in and the BIN price falls further. These people don’t even have the sense to wait until the SW hype has died down a little and Batman is back on the big screen.3 points
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Still with the boxes?? I get that a lot of you just got into the hobby and loaded up on tumblers, but there HAS to be other ways to spend your time than talking quality control. Lots of other great threads to check out here at BP. Diversify!3 points
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My son wants me to KRAGL them, so I stop getting mad when I have to spend an hour putting something back together.3 points
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Saw this on Brickset! Also shared on my FB! Bought 3 tickets for each Star Wars set! Hope you get your goal!3 points
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Lego 21010 Robie House. What an amazing and challenging build! I really like the fact that the instruction pages really make you work to build it correctly. You are scrutinizing placement based on the studs around it. Tons and tons of tiny red pieces and can be somewhat repetitive, but that is because the design emulates the brickwork beautifully. Catch this thing in the right light and just soak in the great details. The book is also awesome covering the history and sections of build. A great experience. This set does not really fit my normal display models, so if anybody is interested in owning a Robie, shoot me a PM and we'll chat.3 points
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Welcome to Week 4 of the Top 10 Best Selling LEGO sets as listed by LEGO S@H. How does this Blog work? While the LEGO Shop at Home best sellers list is updated weekly, we will be updating it every Wednesday. The list includes only sets. Minifigures, keychains, Pick a Brick and other products are excluded. If not enough sets are listed on the S@H Best Sellers page, the weekly entry could be shorter than 10 sets. I will comment only on those sets that are new to the list, or that for whatever reason may stand out on a particular week. For example, if a set has been on the list for 10 weeks in a row, then it may warrant a comment or two. I am keeping an Excel spreadsheet with each set that appears on the list, its weekly placing (if any) and the total number of weeks that it has been on the list. I will try to publish it for the first time in one of the next few entries. For now, this is a US based best sellers list. Pretty simple! Note for this week: Once again, the list of top sellers includes less than 10 sets (5!). We are trying to figure out how we want to deal with this in the future as it seems that it might happen more often than I would have imagined. Now that we got that out of the way, let's take a look at this week's Top Sellers. Top 10 (5!) Best Selling Sets (LEGO S@H) #1: 40201 Valentines Cupid Dog - Previous Week: #1 - Buy Now! #2: 10251 Brick Bank - Previous Week: #2 - Buy Now! #3: 75827 Firehouse Headquarters - Previous Week: #3 - Buy Now! #4: 75105 Millennium Falcon - Previous Week: #4 - Buy Now! #5: 75102 Poe's X-Wing - Previous Week: #5 - Buy Now! Extremely short list this week, more so than the previous one. Having said that, it seems to be pretty clear that The Force Awakens continues to prop up some of the first wave sets, especially the Millennium Falcon and Poe's X-Wing. The Millennium Falcon is kind of expected, and if we had compiled this list back when 7965 was still available I am sure we would have seen it in the Top 10 pretty often. On the other hand, Poe's X-Wing takes one of the most adored ships in the SW Universe to a new level, with a pretty cool color scheme and an appealing minifig collection. The Top 3 also remains unchanged, with the seasonal Valentine's Dog keeping the top spot for the 3rd week in a row. The other 2 sets, Brick Bank and GB HQ, are still benefiting from being new releases, so we should see them drop a little once the initial hype is gone. As always, feel free to leave your views and suggestions in the comments section below! Thanks for reading. View full blog article2 points
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I'm a procrastinator and always will be. Finally in for a 7-pack of tickets. It's great to see you guys fighting and raising money for a good cause, in addition to the amazing site you run here.2 points
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Grabbed another 7 pack. Keep the donations coming in!2 points
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That's pretty good. We were leaning toward: www.thisaintyourmommasbucket.com2 points
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I had the same question. It appears there's a little ramp inside the bucket wheel, and as the buckets turn over at the top, the contents drop on the little ramp and slide onto the conveyor.2 points
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Ahhh, language differences and translations back and forth are always a source of interpretation errors. Happens when communicating in a language that is not your native language.2 points
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Ran across this today, it seems like a decent deal. It's framed and magnetic. https://www.groupon.com/deals/gg-magnetic-pin-travel-maps-1?utm_campaign=UserReferral_mih&utm_source=uu6555340&utm_medium=email2 points
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I don't do much in the way of social media but I tried to do my part by picking up a few raffle tickets. Good luck!2 points
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Spent some $$ on Ebay, all for building pleasure and longterm hold: 10179 UCS MF used but in mint condition $2951 10179 UCS MF used but in mint condition $3130 75059 Sandcrawler $305 60097 City square $144 (2x) 10234 Sydney Opera House $311 10232 Palace Cinema $142 3450 Statue of Liberty, used $765 10185 Green grocer. Used but in mint, boxed condition.$900 and a bunch of vintage space stuff from the eightees including 2 x497 for less than $100 each. This is one of my favorite sets of all time. Anyhow, I should have a decent amount of extra buck to spend next quarter!2 points
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Well I learned (by failure) that you should not miss the Q4. I came out of the dark ages last June and got burnt out in November from deal hunting. I was away from the site for 45 days and didn't get to pick up any Tumblers, Sea Cows or other nice sets. Also my storage room was nearing capacity and I had other stuff going on so I missed out on selling all those nice sets I accumulated for a nice profit during the holidays (still sitting on all my holiday trains - never even made it to Gingerbread). So if you want a plump wallet just stay away from BP :P. I also promised the wifey I wasn't going to buy anything until I got a new job (unemployed since October) and cleaned out some junk. I want to get a few raffle tickets for St Paul's school - just need to find a prepaid card to hide the purchase from the wifey.2 points
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You have to remember that buy-in is important too. Some of us already sold our cheap ones and turned a 4 or 5 time profit which was reinvested in other sets - if I hadn´t done that, I´d have had no Red 5´s. ATH sold last year for 400 plus Red 5 sold now for 350 makes 750 return on a 250 euro total buy-in in less than a year and a half. How long will it take 1 TH to reach 750?2 points
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is it just me, or does it look like a 5-year old designed this?2 points
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Beside the ferris wheel, hot dog stand and train tracks, where's the roller coaster?2 points
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Longtime visitor, first time poster. Non-catholic, catholic high school alumni myself. Just felt compelled to say that this school sounds like a great cause (and I say that as a non-catholic!), and I'm dang happy to have a chance to contribute. $50 for a bunch of kids, PLUS a chance to win a few great sets? Win win for everybody. Hoping the total reaches $100K+!2 points
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To be fair, I think that's balanced out by the stress you feel while looking at your bank account . . . I just hope I can slip it through without my girlfriend noticing the money mysteriously missing. On a more serious note: The Lego community is honestly one of the best communities I've had the pleasure of being a part of. I have yet to have a single bad experience in the AFOL communities. Catholic schools (and other similar private schools) are simply some of the best in the nation. Even if you don't support the religion, Catholicism has been, for literally hundreds and hundreds of years, one of the major contributors to education. There's been rough patches, but today most Catholic schools are competitive and provide a fantastic learning environment for kids. I'm just a poor college student scraping by and I don't have a lot of money to pitch in, but it's hard to stand by and not help such a fantastic cause championed by such incredible and wonderful people, people who don't hesitate to put both their time and money into our Lego communities. Thanks guys!2 points
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Definitely, this is a great grass-roots cause. Sadly, due to money constraints ATM (I'm a casual worker currently getting a measly 8 hrs a week with a wife and kid) and the low AUD, I only managed to get one ticket. However, I'll see if I can make an extra ebay sale or two before it ends and get more2 points