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Welcome to Lego Investing. I have been in this game since the 1990's and my prime years were from about 2004-2007. All I can tell you from all my years of collecting and ebaying is that there is no guarantee, but the large lego sets are the closest thing to a guarantee as you can get. While not every Large set is a home run, you are pretty much guaranteed to NOT lose money, which is more than you could say than any other investment. Legovesting has become increasingly popular in the last 3 years, making it more difficult to make money as fast, and Ebay fees and the post office are continuing to cut into profits heavily, but you can still make good money. Just not as much and as fast as the mid 2000's. There are many naysayers on this forum about the Tumbler and they have their reasons. I personally believe this is as sure a bet as any due to the fact that despite what many people on this forum state, the interest for this set is VERY HIGH. It has more reviews than almost any other UCS set that was out for only 16 months, and has been a consistent top seller on Amazon since it has been out. While more interest drives more people to hoard, there is only so much supply out there, and this was hoarded less than many of the other sets out there. While the extra couple hundred resellers that picked up the set to resell will cause this set to take longer to sell out at lower price points, once it does, it will rise higher than the average 200 dollar set. Right now there are only 78 resellers for this item on Amazon. That is much less than Red Five, DS or many other UCS level sets. The set is already up to 300+shipping on Amazon which again is higher than Red Five or any other set retired in the last several months, and it's only been sold out a week, and there is even a small trickle of supply likely secondary to returns. The set was only available for about 16 months before retirement which is about 8-12 months less than the average UCS Set, again decreasing supply. People state Batman is not a "popular" commodity or as popular as Star Wars or Jurassic Park. While it is not at the level of Star Wars, it is very high. Batman has been popular in a tv format since the 60's and more popular in comics for lord knows how long. Batman has had 7 and soon to be 8 movies made, and will continue to have movies made. Batman will always be at the forefront of people's minds. People state that the Nolan Batman trilogy's time has come and gone, and thus interest in the Tumbler will die. Well look at the Delorean!!! Hasn't had any reason to be on the forefront of people's minds in 20 years except it was the 30th anniversary recently and people are paying 150 for some dinky little car that doesn't even look like the real thing. People state that no one will want to buy a Lego model of a car featured in only 2 Movies. Again, I point to the Delorean. The Millenium Falcon is only in 4 movies! The Super Star Destroyer in just one. The Nolan Trilogy is one of the definitive trilogies of the 2000's and is revered. It was a box office monster. The Heath Ledger Joker is one of the most legendary performances of all time. Batman, and especially The Dark Knight is HIGHLY RELEVANT and POPULAR. Especially among the crowd that can afford a 300 dollar lego set. This set will do well. How well is the only question. Lego investing is one of the safest investments out there because the number of Lego fans, unlike almost any other toy out there, will always continue to grow. Lego is not a Fad. It is not a beanie baby or a furby. It is a time honored toy, in which a lego from 1950 will still interact with a lego from 2016 the same. Lego never dates. While building techniques improve, (just look at the early X wings and first Star Wars sets, which I bought all of them when they were first release in 1998) a Lego from 50 years ago still functions the same as a lego today. With a constantly growing fan base, there is a constant stream of people who are becoming new to lego. With a constant influx of new Lego fans, there is a constant stream of AFOL's. Lego has always been a "higher" end toy as the prices for legos are higher than an average toy of the same size. Because of this it is a toy that tends to skew more toward the "upper" and "upper middle" class. Because of this, there are always children who grew up with Lego's that have a high likelihood of making a good salary. This leads to more AFOL's who when they start earning those salaries want to capture the magic of their youth, and also share it with their children. They then buy the sets they couldn't afford as a child, and then further the resale market. For many of these people, they will pay whatever it takes to get what they want. Lego is one of the most unique toys out there and it's ability to withstand depressions and stock market crashes makes it one of the safest investments out there.10 points
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So, you've stumbled across brickpicker.com and are overwhelmed by the number of different threads, blogs and sets. First, welcome to this community. Lots of users will happily welcome you, others, maybe no so much. Especially if you populate different threads with a variation on 'what should I buy' or 'is this a good set to invest in'? I'd argue both of these questions (other than gifs and sarcastic rejoinders) form the basis of every single thread, so instead of asking about a particular set, check out the thread dedicated to that set and start at the beginning. I can almost guarantee that some posters like it (some will even give logical reasons why) as an investment and some posters don't (also, sometimes logical). It is your job to weigh these pros and cons and decide where your opinion rests. You, of course, are free to post questions like the two mentioned above, but the answer will probably just be rehash of things already mentioned in the thread earlier. That, and forum members may be slightly less inclined to be helpful if they feel you posted it because you are too lazy to go back and read the whole thread. They might even be sarcastic/mean about it. A tidbit of Advice If you've read the thread and still want advice, at least try to be specific. Perhaps state the price and quantity you are considering and your ideal hold time. I bet a post that asks a question in this manner will be much better received. I know I'd probably answer this question with a little more insight and help than I would otherwise offer. Now, that is for a single set which has a dedicated thread. What if you are a new investor/collector/browser or Lego aficionado and you want to ask about several sets at once? I offer you this, a shopping list of what you should be buying today (according to me). I am looking for these same sets for one reason: they are either sold out or retired from either the Europe or North America shop at home and I believe they aren't coming back. I also believe that they have some potential, and carry a very low risk because they are becoming harder to find at MSRP or on sale anywhere. That isn't to say they can't be found – some might be found quite online still, depending on your market. Others might be in store only, so this shopping list is a handy thing to check when out with the family browsing retailers and trying to kill time. Veegs' Awesome Quick Guide of the Best Hopefully Soon to be Officially Retired or Already Retired in Some Markets Lego Shopping List. (Items may come back into stock. Not an official guarantee. Veegs is not responsible for your investment choices. Success rate may vary wildly.) Architecture: A nice range for all budgets! This line is one of my favorites, and I think the new Cityscapes, while neat, aren't as desirable as the standalone sets, which will hopefully push demand for older sets. Availability in Canada isn't great, but I think Barnes and Noble in the US still have some of these (your area may vary). No clue about Europe or other markets, but I'd keep my eyes peeled for any of these. Imperial Hotel 21017 Villa Savoye 21014 United Nations Headquarters 21018 Bradenburg Gate 21011 Leaning Tower of Pisa 21015 Seattle Space Needle 21003 At this point, I'm a buyer of any/all of these at MSRP CITY: Quite a few City sets qualify for my list, but these are two I particularly like. The Ice Breaker was a Toys R Us exclusive (at least in Canada) and boats are, in short, awesome. The Snowplow is pretty cool, and there is no remake (yet) on the horizon. Could this be the next Logging Truck? (I bought a lot of them...still not enough) Unique City sets often do well, and despite the constant police/fire sets, the themes overall CAGR% is rock solid, so there is money to be made on this theme with the right sets. I'd include Coast Guard Patrol 60014, too, if you can still find it. Arctic Ice Breaker 60062 Snowplow Truck 60083 Disney Princess: I am a huge Princess fan. I think this theme is on the cusp of doing some great things for investors, and have a separate blog in progress. For now, though, I think this is the best pick of the four that meet the sold out/retired criteria. Only Rapunzel set so far (minus a 2014 polybag) and a massive fan base (including my daughter). Disney toy collectors are out there (my daughter watches so many Disney un-boxing videos and such...I experience it first hand) and I doubt we're getting another Rapunzel set anytime soon or a remake – rumors have Belle coming this summer. I love this set. Rapunzel's Creativity Tower 41054 Friends: Quite a few others on the sold out/retired list but I gravitate towards these two. The Mall is a good anchor set for any town, and the last large Friends set to retire (Riding Camp) did well. I think this will do just fine in 12-18 months. I opted for the Beach House over a couple other mid-sized sets because Heartlake seems to have a boatload of stores but not that many houses. The new Emma's House and Livi's Mansion (although the mansion seems smaller than Emma's house?) bring some balance, but I think this set is one folks will pay double MSRP for to add to their collection. Heartlake Shopping Mall 41058 Stephanie's Beach House 41037 Ideas: Gorgeous set, and the growth in the European market has me believing in this set more every day. From the dedicated thread for this set I know folks are still able to find this in North America and use coupons or other magic to get it on sale. Your skill level and experience may dictate that, but I still think it is a great set at MSRP. Birds 21301 Pirates: Short run for a theme, and this is the flagship of the line. Still floating around at MSRP in Canada, but plenty got in on sale recently. I suspect if it is available around you, you can probably wait and get it on sale. Unlike others on this list, I'd prefer this at least 20% off before going nuts. The Brick Bounty 70413 Marvel: I was going to include Guardians of the Galaxy but I've already discussed those sets here: Ant-Man is growing like Wolverine's Chopper Showdown did and should be sought out in your region and purchased. Easy to store and probably easy to ship, great set for a brand new investor to track down and buy. Check recent sold listings on eBay to see what I'm talking about! Ant-Man Final Battle 76039 Star Wars: These will be the hardest to find, even at full retail price. In case you didn't know, a new Star Wars movie came out in December 2015!!! There are a few others I'd throw on this list, too, but I think these four are the best of the recently sold out/retired lot. At least in the North American market. Imperial Star Destroyer 75055 AT-AT 75054 MTT 75058 Mos Eisley Cantina 75052 The Hobbit: Stragglers are still out there from the third wave. It had the shortest run that I can remember from any/all of the Lord of the Rings or Hobbit waves and scarcity drives demand. Impressive sold listings for Lonely Mountain and Mirkwood Elves so I'd snap up remaining stock of this final wave. Unlikely to ever be made again and a huge fan base, coupled with the fact that there are no decent Medieval sets on the horizon (I'm not counting Nexo Knights, people!) There are many other sets that fit my criteria (sold out or retired in at least one market) but I think these are your best bets, even at MSRP. That being said, I happily nabbed plenty of sets not on this list but at a discount. Obviously, if the set is sold out/retired and you can get it for clearance prices, you probably don't need me to tell you to consider it (unless it is Ninjago, The Lego Movie or Chima, then consider longer...still might not be a great buy in) and probably nab it. Remember items marked clearance probably won't be in that store when you come back, so don't hesitate too long. Do a quick check of Brickpicker values or a scan of recent sold items on eBay, and if you see it trading significantly above the clearance price I'd probably advise pulling out the plastic and buying. Also, as per my exclusives 2016 article, no need for a new investor to start throwing money at exclusives! I doubt we're getting a surprise winter/spring retirement of a bunch of huge sets (sarcasm – I expect zero, maybe one Star Wars set around May the 4th) so put your money into sets that are already primed for post-EOL growth. Probably the safest place to put cash, and you can get your feet wet selling some of the sets on this list tomorrow (Ant Man, for example) or in a few months. I daresay all of the sets on my list will be able to be sold for a decent profit in 9-10 months. Low risk, short hold time (if needed, most will benefit from longer holds before plateauing but nothing wrong with cashing out sometimes) and good to great upside. Winner, winner, buy BigBlueDogBricks a chicken dinner. All photos courtesy of brickpicker.com, opted for one per theme discussed otherwise I felt it would be a little too picture-happy. Happy Hunting, Veegs6 points
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That's a great link right above, lets revive this forum a little BPs! if you got your money on bundle #5, you may just be getting my bricks too anyway, as cheap as I am, as lazy, as....as NOT-participating-in-SH.T as I am, I'm going to make a little version of Mos_Eisley $-4-likes idea, give this post 10 likes and I'll spend $10 on raffle ticket, up to 50 likes/$50! Let's go. (I'll pay on last day of the raffle Ed) And on the side, buy some tix too! Plus like Mos_Eisley post that I provided...5 points
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You need to advertise the raffle as "retiring soon"...4 points
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I started this thread so that all of the Tumbler condition chatter can be centralized into one thread, where it will hopefully not be read because... well people really don't care. Thanks P.S. I have 10 Tumblers. Some are dinged up, but I have two of them that are in A+ mint condition that I polish daily.4 points
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Alright, I'm selling likes! I've already bought some raffle tickets, but just for fun, for every "like" this post gets from members who joined before the time of this posting, I'll spend an equal amount on more tickets, up to $250. If it gets beyond that, I'll figure out how much more I'll spend. Let's set a like record!4 points
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Welcome to Week 3 of the Top 10 Best Selling LEGO sets as listed by LEGO S@H. How does this Blog work? While the LEGO Shop at Home best sellers list is updated weekly, we will be updating it every Wednesday. The list includes only sets. Minifigures, keychains, Pick a Brick and other products are excluded. If not enough sets are listed on the S@H Best Sellers page, the weekly entry could be shorter than 10 sets. I will comment only on those sets that are new to the list, or that for whatever reason may stand out on a particular week. For example, if a set has been on the list for 10 weeks in a row, then it may warrant a comment or two. I am keeping an Excel spreadsheet with each set that appears on the list, its weekly placing (if any) and the total number of weeks that it has been on the list. I will try to publish it for the first time in one of the next few entries. For now, this is a US based best sellers list. I am still trying to figure out how to do other regions. Pretty simple! Note for this week: The Top 25 Sellers page in LEGO S@H is filled with non-sets this week. As a result, this week's list will be shorter; there are just not enough sets to fill a complete Top 10. Now that we got that out of the way, let's take a look at this week's Top 10. Top 10 (7!) Best Selling Sets (LEGO S@H) #1: 40201 Valentines Cupid Dog - Previous Week: #1 - Buy Now! #2: 10251 Brick Bank - Previous Week: #2 - Buy Now! #3: 75827 Firehouse Headquarters - Previous Week: #3 - Buy Now! #4: 75105 Millennium Falcon - Previous Week: #4 - Buy Now! #5: 75102 Poe's X-Wing - Previous Week: #7 - Buy Now! #6: 31027 Blue Racer - Previous Week: N/A - Buy Now! So, this one is a surprise. I truly can't figure out why these small Creator set managed to make it to the list this week. Sure, it is a nice little model for only $5, but unless people are buying it along with a larger set I really don't see why it is so popular. Especially online! #7: 60036 Arctic Base Camp - Previous Week: N/A - Buy Now! The Arctic Base Camp is the larger (by piece count) of the CITY Arctic themed sets, so it isn't really a surprise to see it on the list considering LEGO slapped a 30% discount on it. This set, along with the Icebreaker ship, received pretty good praise from some forum members as well. Well, this week was a short one! Not really that many movers in the Top 5! As always, feel free to leave your views and suggestions in the comments section below! Thanks for reading.3 points
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Target online item return Architecture Studio. 111.89 instead of 159.99 Perfect seals.3 points
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I was so happy to snag a Tumbler from Target before the price shoots up... Then it arrived today in a giant box without a single shred of packing materials. All corners are crushed and there's a ding in the top edge. At least my girls can make a new space ship out of the box. I won't risk returning it.3 points
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Welcome to Week 3 of the Top 10 Best Selling LEGO sets as listed by LEGO S@H. How does this Blog work? While the LEGO Shop at Home best sellers list is updated weekly, we will be updating it every Wednesday. The list includes only sets. Minifigures, keychains, Pick a Brick and other products are excluded. If not enough sets are listed on the S@H Best Sellers page, the weekly entry could be shorter than 10 sets. I will comment only on those sets that are new to the list, or that for whatever reason may stand out on a particular week. For example, if a set has been on the list for 10 weeks in a row, then it may warrant a comment or two. I am keeping an Excel spreadsheet with each set that appears on the list, its weekly placing (if any) and the total number of weeks that it has been on the list. I will try to publish it for the first time in one of the next few entries. For now, this is a US based best sellers list. I am still trying to figure out how to do other regions. Pretty simple! Note for this week: The Top 25 Sellers page in LEGO S@H is filled with non-sets this week. As a result, this week's list will be shorter; there are just not enough sets to fill a complete Top 10. Now that we got that out of the way, let's take a look at this week's Top 10. Top 10 (7!) Best Selling Sets (LEGO S@H) #1: 40201 Valentines Cupid Dog - Previous Week: #1 - Buy Now! #2: 10251 Brick Bank - Previous Week: #2 - Buy Now! #3: 75827 Firehouse Headquarters - Previous Week: #3 - Buy Now! #4: 75105 Millennium Falcon - Previous Week: #4 - Buy Now! #5: 75102 Poe's X-Wing - Previous Week: #7 - Buy Now! #6: 31027 Blue Racer - Previous Week: N/A - Buy Now! So, this one is a surprise. I truly can't figure out why these small Creator set managed to make it to the list this week. Sure, it is a nice little model for only $5, but unless people are buying it along with a larger set I really don't see why it is so popular. Especially online! #7: 60036 Arctic Base Camp - Previous Week: N/A - Buy Now! The Arctic Base Camp is the larger (by piece count) of the CITY Arctic themed sets, so it isn't really a surprise to see it on the list considering LEGO slapped a 30% discount on it. This set, along with the Icebreaker ship, received pretty good praise from some forum members as well. Well, this week was a short one! Not really that many movers in the Top 5! As always, feel free to leave your views and suggestions in the comments section below! Thanks for reading. View full blog article2 points
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Here is the coupon images. I'm not sure why it changes to 20% with the export to Passport (iOS) vs 15% if printed or if exported to Google Wallet. I'm putting both up. T&C state that the coupon is as good on the phone as it is printed. Removed coupon link - it is invalid2 points
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So beware of any new forum members from Berkshire that write trunk instead of boot and line instead of queue.2 points
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Languages: American LOL Only if I get staff discount and exemption from any rules deemed unreasonable.2 points
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I think the last guy started selling LEGO after reading the latest news.2 points
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http://www.lego.com/en-us/careers/jobdescriptionpage?title=E-commerce+Fraud+Assistant&id=53573722 Interesting job opportunity...2 points
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I do like what I am seeing on Ebay and bricklink - min. price 980 euros and 850 respectively and number of listings gradually coming down.2 points
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Here is an article about the school and fundraising efforts from the Philadelphia Inquirer.2 points
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Only my third post on these forums, and just wanted to commend you on your effort. Just bought my tickets last night, which makes me supporter #426. However much you raise, I think what you guys are doing is awesome! I remember when we had to raise money for our school every year, my mother would go around and sell cookies to her colleagues at work so that we wouldn't have to do it ourselves in our neighborhood. And she did this every year for 12 years! Hopefully, everyone is procrastinating like me. Best of luck!2 points
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Very welcome. You and your brother really do a great job with this site. Glad to be a part of the site and your fundraiser.2 points
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Tomorrow (friday 22.01) interspar.at will have a lego deal with 20% off.the code is 616lego0515 and it also applies to already discouted sets. Perhaps the 5euro newsletter coupon will also work. E.g. The arocs will be there for 127,70E included shipping to germany2 points
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Finally got my donation in. Sorry for the delay. Been meaning to for a while now. The badges all the donators had were a nice reminder (not that you haven't done an excellent job posting it everywhere).2 points
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Sold a set of 12 (1 & 2) for $199.99 + shipping this morning. Buy in was about half that2 points
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Even that is not true, or at least not without digging into every listing. Ebay reports the final price as sold, even if that final price was for a 2nd/3rd/4th quantity item that never sold. So if I list qty=2 of a set and ask $100, the first one will show as sold $100. If after selling the first one I raise my price to $1000, and then end the listing, it will show up in ebay sold listings as sold for $1000.2 points
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Galeria Sunday Sale is this week -13% on Lego City and -20% on Lego Duplo. It should stack with the PaybackCoupons, that worked last time. (Possible Couponcodes are:Vorteil2187, Vorteil7927, Vorteil2186,Vorteil2851) Newsletter coupon didn't work the last weeks, so I don't think it will work this time.2 points
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I got one for €50 last year. One that will either some day (when it's finally not sold in retail stores any longer) rise in value enough to be interesting to sell it, or if not I'll just give it to my daughter as a birthday present or something. She's 6 now, so I still have 1-3 years before she'd feel too old for it.2 points
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Something you might consider having a go at Grav, would be to sell as open box sealed bags. You can open and flatten the box, and tuck all the sealed bags into a mailer. Most people are army building and intend to open the box anyway, so selling open box or even no box shouldn't be that difficult... especially when you can cut the shipping in half (US buyers) or a quarter (Canadian buyers). I've only listed a couple, but I've sold just the figures for ~$20 + $2.5 shipping. I have bricks leftover for MOCing or bundling together later, and I'm already in the black with a good buy-in like the BOGO offered last week! Definitely comes down to your buy in cost though, and the worthwhile value of it after that number has been recovered. As with anything on here I guess.2 points
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I'm not a power user yet (as I just haven't had the time), but I *just* found out about this. I'd seen the banner a few times but it just didn't catch my attention as it seemed like random publicity... Also not a fan of the vid used for the raising of the funds, but it's *definitely* something that everyone using this site should do. BP is a great site even for lite users.... I'd simply suggest to Ed that the banner be more attractive and focused on the raffle.. and Lego. Idk, different colors maybe? I'm definitely in. Good luck! - David2 points
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Doesn't matter if they are smashed or not -- they sell for the same on ebay and amazon. "May show shelfwear" -- I've never ever had a problem or a return. Im not a collector - just a seller.2 points
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Good idea. Now we just need a mod to move 2/3 of The Tumbler thread into this one. I polish my mint Tumblers twice a day, by the way.2 points
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A happy belated New Year to all my readers, all nine of you. May this coming year bring you discounted exclusives, 80% clearance finds in out of the way stores on long retired merchandise and superb buyer feedback in 2016. I'd also like to quickly take a sentence to remind readers that the Mack's, a.k.a. The Founders, a.k.a. The Collectors, a.k.a. The Guys Who Made Me Take the Blue Pill, are still raising money for St. Paul's and it would be a darn shame not to support such a great cause. I could cite a boatload of research that supports the notion that giving money away makes the giver undeniably happier, or could chastise those that read content (including this rubbish) but don't want to give back in any way, but I'd rather give a polite reminder that time is running out to buy tickets and the sets up for grabs could easily be the centerpiece of a budding collection. At the minimum, there should be lots of great stockroom photo sharing when these sets find new homes, and hopefully some education for little Macks. Back to business. What is BigBlueDogBricks targeting for 2016 in terms of exclusives? I'm sure everyone is waiting with bated breath to see what Ol' Blue is favoring, but I'll give a little background in case you are new to my flow. This will be my fourth year dabbling in Brickvesting (yeah, I'm starting to feel a little bro-ish using that term...might have to coin something new) and I am now confident classifying myself as a solid middle tier investor. I see lots of new members posting in various forums and can only assume you might want to hear a little advice on what kind of buying someone who was once like you is preparing to do. Side anecdote: Just before Christmas I was contacted by a fellow in the Greater Toronto Area who wanted to buy a couple of large sets. We chatted back and forth and he correctly assumed that because I had so many listings I was doing this as more than a casual hobby (like someone 'accidentally' has hundreds of Lego sets for sale at the same time?) and he asked a few questions about Lego investing and such. Yeah, not much of an anecdote yet...Anyway, he tells me that along with his brother they are getting into Lego and think investing is cool. They opt not to buy any of my sets (although they were underpriced from ebay sales around 20-25%, and I sold a couple of the sets they were interested in within a week for more than what they thought was too steep) but he did end with an interesting question – so you're buying tons of Pet Shops and Tower Bridges now, right? I chuckled, because I think people often get drawn to Brickpicker and think the big shiny sets are the easiest way to get started. I am a prophet preaching Anything But Modulars now, though, as I believe there are quite a few better strategies to be successful that are faster and provide a greater overall return than simply picking the current oldest modular and throwing money at it. Worst. Strategy. Ever. So, if you are relatively new or just don't have a lot of capital to invest what should you buy from the exclusives? Well, I've ordered my 2016 picks chosen from all the sets under the 'Hard to Find' label on Shop at Home (Canada), along with a quick rundown of why it deserves that ranking. I'll be back soon to talk about large (but not exclusive) sets that are on my buy list, and finish up with a smaller sets hit list. Fun! BigBlueDogToys Anything But Modulars Buy List Order, Winter 2016, Exclusives Ewok Village 10236 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 149 in building sets I'm sure plenty of other investors have this at or near the top of their list. It is the oldest Star Wars large (not officially a UCS) set and, in case you don't know, Star Wars is totally a thing with people. They by and large seem to love it, if box office results indicate anything. It was listed as 'check back in February' for a few months (but was always available to buy at other retailers, at least in Canada) and is now listed as temporarily out of stock. Rumors have maybe three or four large Star Wars sets in the pipeline, so something seemingly has to give. I'm not advocating going crazy for a small to mid-sized investor (I have four from a flash sale from Walmart Canada) but it will probably be the first set I buy during the next double VIP + promo event. If you want to read a lot of Ewok love (or conversely a lot of Ewok hate) the dedicated thread is long and I can summarize: opinion seems divided, not much in the middle. I'm a lover, not a fighter, so these furballs are alright with me. Despite a good sales rank, it hasn't been around nearly as long as the modulars on my dishonorable mentions list so I'll let its current relative popularity slide. The S.H.I.E.L.D. Helicarrier 76042 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 344 in Building Sets A couple of whispers from far off places (Singapore, if you don't care to read the retiring soon thread religiously) have this retiring sooner rather than later. Limit is 1 from Shop at Home. It is massive. Ewoks are running circles around it according to sales rank. So why buy? Unlikely to ever be remade, I'd say, or at least not anytime soon. Difficult for small and medium-sized investors to hoard a set this large and expensive. Marvel fatigue might be setting in a bit (perhaps more of a Superheroes malaise, really) although I think the core fan base will still buy. Hasn't been around that long, but I'd still rather use double VIP to get a couple in the spring and then reevaluate. The Fairground Mixer 10244 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 840 in Building Sets Overall the worst sales rank of the sets I've chosen to focus on today, which makes me happy. Almost swapped this with the Helicarrier...consider it a toss up for me. A poor seller in a crowded Lego release schedule seems very likely to get the axe sooner rather than later. I have a couple now but would actually be quite happy to aim for double digits here. I think it is a unique kind of set and is priced well for Canada! I was happy to grab Maersk EEEs when they were sitting with the retiring soon label for months and others were buying (presumably) modulars. I've sold some of those EEEs while those that invested in other large sets are potentially still sitting on them, and I've got cash profits to put into another hidden gem. It will be interesting to see if a third carnival type set gets released this summer, or if the Friends rollercoaster (heavily rumored) and other fairground sets are released in its stead. This summer the set will turn two, it isn't a great seller at the moment and doesn't get a ton of chatter on Brickpicker. I am going to throw a little money down on this one. Or a lot. The Simpsons House 71006 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 229 in Building Sets I loved this set a couple months ago, and still love it now. Solid seller, not as flashy in sales numbers as a few other very large sets. Read more here: Sandcrawler 75059 Current Amazon.com sales rank: 285 Second oldest Star Wars UCS-type set after Ewok Village. Reasoning is largely the same as Ewok Village, as I think this won't make it to 2017, comes from a hugely popular line and looks ballin'. I nod to EV first as I am afraid the Ewoks might not make it until Q4 (a.k.a. Retirement season) but I'm willing to gamble the Sandcrawler will. Also use some Helicarrier reasoning here: massive set, big price tag and big box keeps a lot of smaller and even mid-sized investors from going too deep on it (at least most of them). There you have it – this is a shopping list of what I'd like to nab during the spring double VIP. I'm not going to panic and grab them earlier as I am reasonably confident the sets on this list will not suddenly become unavailable permanently in February, and every percent discount or promo makes me more competitive in a crowded marketplace. I'm not going to order more than one or two of each, and not in quick succession or anything crazy that would merit a ban hammer, but will spread them over a week or two as I've done every promo period in the last couple years. Honorable Mentions Volkswagen T1 – Sales rank 385. Sales number indicates perhaps (finally) a little buyer fatigue? It has been out for seemingly forever and the new box design in 2015 virtually guaranteed (at least to me) that there would still be more time in 2016 to get more (not that I need more). I'll reevaluate in a few months. Those hoping The Lego Group wouldn't want three large car models on the shelves at the same time must be gutted. Mini Cooper – Sales rank 495. Slower than the T1, so an argument could be made that it might be retired ahead of the T1, which will become the new Death Star a.k.a. Live Star. Sydney Opera House – Sales rank 412. Tower Bridge is 183. Significant difference? As far as I know, the Opera House doesn't have a new box design, while the Tower Bridge does. I'd wager this goes in 2016 and the Tower Bridge stays. Just a hunch. That being said, I personally don't like the Opera House as much as a few of the others on this list, and I don't have enough money to go 5-10 deep on every set. I can't see myself wanting/getting more than 4-5 of these. It has also been discounted in other markets which has generally been linked to sets that are on the way out. If my sales stay strong this might get some love in the next few months. Dishonorable Mentions Pet Shop – Sales rank 89. 89! That is gross. I think modulars look like easy money and lots of folks are drawn in by them, but if it keeps selling this well I'm not convinced it will even retire this fall. If you are starting out, no problem grabbing one or two, but I think it is insane to tie up too much capital here. Plenty of other sets out there that should/could retire sooner and give a cash return faster. Palace Cinema – Sales rank 145. Also gross! If the Pet Shop didn't retire, then the Cinema HAS TO, right? AMITRITE? Perhaps not. Given sales numbers, why shouldn't the Lego Group have five modulars available at the same time? As long as investors keep stocking them away, I suspect they'll retire slowly. The difficulty for me is that in a perfect world, I would have piles and piles of each set, especially exclusives but that isn't realistic. I require stock turnover and sales to drive new investment, and my success (or failure) to move stock dictates approximately what I can spend. The spring double VIP event will be a good time to add a few large sets that I hope/expect/pray will retire at some point in 2016. When each set starts doing the in and out of stock dance, I'll probably squeeze some funds together to buy some from another large retailer, but I like to get at least a couple of each targeted set from Shop at Home in the mid to late cycle of its life. If you think I should be buying more Pet Shops, sound off in the comments section! Veegs (BigBlueDogBricks)1 point
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The best place to get MTG is either massdrop OR miniature market.com Usually you can get new release boxes for around 84-89 with no tax and free shipping. I just picked up a case on mass drop for 84 a box and 15 shipping. MTG boxes almost always go up over time but you need to buy in at less then 100. Some boxes like modern masters or worldwake are ridiculous now. I play as well so we crack most of what we buy but I always put aside a cpl boxes to hold.1 point
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Back in the day, Lego included alternate pics in instructions. No steps though. Even my Kings Castle from 1984 had it1 point
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Why are you returning it? Box condition usually doesn't mean much. If this set hits $500, you'll be kicking yourself for returning it,1 point
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As @thoroakenfelder says, a high price means nothing if there is no demand for that piece. So unless the set it comes in is desirable or the few other sets that have the piece are desirable, there is not much you can do with the piece and the fact that it has a high selling price. BrickStock (and BrickLink) have this information for you too - click on an element in BrickStock and in the left-hand pane you can see which sets the piece comes in, and how many of these pieces have been sold in the last 6 months (and how many are currently up for sale). Case in point is this piece: 3665 Inverted 1x2 slope. This is a very common piece, but not in the color Dark Blue. Until Jan 1, 2016, it was only used in this color in 1 set from the early 2000's. The price of the piece was hence ~$10, but very very limited sales (If you're MOCcing something, and you find out one piece is superexpensive and rare, you are likely to find an alternative way of doing the same build instead of forking out big money). Now, as of Jan 1, you can buy this piece again as part of 31045 Ocean Explorer. Looking at BrickStock you might think this set is a winner because of this piece, but that's likely to change as the piece will become more commonplace and will likely see a drop in price (it already dropped $2 in the last month alone) and an increase in sales volume. Long story short - you need to be able to understand why a piece is of high value, and if the high value is paired with desirability/irreplacability.1 point
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Remember not all sets that you buy are instant winners, most of the people that have been doing this for a while have had their fair share of mistakes. One that I will remember Is 70400 forest ambush, I could have sworn that would have done well since it was a troop builder with knights. I still have a large amount of those things. No the forums are not really about that, its should be more of a discussion on what sets people think will do well and many other things. The forums are not just a get rick quick scheme that anyone can do with ease. You will need to read through other posts and do the research and come up with your own onion.1 point
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Nobody is going to spoonfeed you this information, but here's a recipe on how to obtain the info yourself: 1. Make a list of sets you can get from this out-of-the-way LEGO seller 2. Download and/or Purchase BrickStock (either the free or the purchased version will do fine for what you need) 3. In BrickStock: Ctrl-I Ctrl-I and search for the set (hint: use the magnifying glass and look for "<setnumber>-1" e.g. "10179-1" 4. Press Ctrl-A Ctrl-G to have BrickStock download all the average 6 month sale prices for all pieces 5. Sort items by Price, look at the most expensive ones 6. Also look at total set part-out value. 7. Make your decisions.1 point
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For what its worth I drove around my city for 3 1/2 hours and picked up 30 from a total of 4 walmart's. It did not take long and was quite fun. Of course I did spend gas, make a lot of left turns and bought 5 sliders and fries at a white castle that I have not been to in years. So costs were high but hey for a Europe retired set that may be retiring here it was worth the extra heartburn1 point
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Are you guys holding your PEE long term or relieving yourself of them during the Easter rush?1 point