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Between Ginger Bread Headquarters, Star Workshop & Santa's Wars sometimes it gets a little confusing...

This is one if my fav topics (aka threads) on Brickpicker since it helps everyone. FYI... I did want to share something important for those who ship in bulk to 1 location. A somewhat popular shipping box size is 26"x26"x26" for bulk selling & is very cost efficient if using UPS Gound or Fed-Ex with their business account . For those who saw my pics in the "What did you sell today" topic, know I regular use this box size. However, I will NO longer use this size anymore. Why? Both UPS & FedEX now use automatic laser measures for verifying package size since going to dimensional weight about a year ago. They also do random audits using manual measurements. The issue with the 26"x26"x26" box is if it 1 of the 3 measurements exceed 26" (even by 1cm), UPS will round up to 27" which then puts this box into the Large Package category that adds a $50+ surcharge. Thus my $55 shipment now costs $105. My last 2 26"x26"x26" boxes had the large package surcharge. My previous shipped boxes didn't have this problem. Luckily, my UPS Biz Account Rep helped me by getting the fee waived since I take pictures with a tape measure and had previous 26"x26"x26" shipments in my history. To avoid this hassle going forward, I'm switching to 24"x24"x24" boxes. Sure, I lose precious packing space but avoiding the surcharge is totally worth it. https://www.ups.com/content/cb/en/resources/ship/packaging/dim_weight.html

My Black Friday weekend haul. The CT were from a week before but got the last bit in the mail this week. Each sealed box contains 2 CT. Gotta take this photo before most of the CT get ship out this week.

My section of our current LUG display...

gff jgh ^ Sorry about that garbage. The PS has been available for 1664 days, second to the GE which was out 1687 days. The end may be near.

4 more Sydney Opera Houses plus 4 Ginger Bread Houses using up the last of my points. I genuinely think I'm done for the year now with Lego spending. I've spent what seems like an absolute fortune, the loft is literally packed to the rafters and the girlfriend is starting to give me aggro.

Is that an AC-DC album that C3PO is carrying?

Sadly, this seems to be looking more realistic by the day. The theory that the horde is its own worst enemy in driving up sales and increasing production runs is starting to gain more and more traction with me. I've been putting my investment dollars in lots of places, but not in modulars. If this doesn't sell out/retire in the next couple months, the horde might stop increasing their hoard?

Yay I've got a few of these so this is good news. There's a couple of retailers in the UK selling them at £77.99 so I'm going to come out of retirement and pick up a couple more. The loft is packed tight so I'll be onto wardrobe space now. I'll throw out a couple pairs of the girlfriends shoes, she wants to moan about my Lego well she's got more shoes than I've got Ecto-1's!

Plus remember these weren't sent out to any other retailers as far as I know so all produced units were only sold at Lego stores and LEGO Shop at Home,

Not everybody has the luxuary to find a pile of Sandcrawlers at 20% off in the spanish mountains. As mentioned above. Here, it is only obtainable from Lego Store or SaH.

I'm not totally convinced that the number of people clicking a want button correlates as a really good indication for those serious about paying above RRP for a set in years to come.

when PS is chronically out of stock for months, it's all the horde's fault, they're going to keep making it. when PS is chronically in stock for months at all retailers, it's all the horde's fault, they're making so many the horde can't buy them all, its never going to retire. the horde is bored with PS, but no new box, its going soon. the horde is not snapping it up like it did with the GE last year. it's all the horde's fault. Also PS limit is back to 2 - though it was limit 5 a couple days ago. who knows if that means anything.

Here is where the Maz Kanata minifigure came from apparently. Interesting seeing a Star Wars set with a couple play features reminiscent of Minecraft and that hanging banner looks like an uncooked slab of bacon. Haha.

Welcome to the first entry of what I would like to think of as a revamped Evaluation Corner article. The idea behind this new format is to offer a little more historical and analytical data when evaluating sets for potential investment, in a more visual way. Hopefully you will like it; be sure to add your feedback or comments! Historical & Theme Analysis The topic of this first article will be the recently released The Brick Bounty – 70413. The “Pirates” LEGO theme has become one of those recurring ones we expect to pop up in stores every few years. It really needs no explanation; kids love pirates and AFOLs really appreciate a well- designed LEGO ship. So, how has the Pirates theme performed over the course of the years when compared to some of the other “evergreen” lines? As you can see, the theme sits slightly below the average LEGO theme CAGR of 11.55%, seemingly indicating the performance of its sets has not been quite as stellar. However, it is important to mention that all of the themes showcased above have been around for a long, long time. The aggregate CAGR number is somewhat skewed negatively as time goes by and the return gets spread out over a larger period of time and more sets are added to the sample. Of course, these only highlights the performance of the theme as a whole, and while that is good information to have, we should focus our attention in the performance of pirate ships. The graph below includes all the pirate ships in the theme with over 500 pieces, excluding the Imperial Flagship. It is pretty clear that while the overall theme CAGR is not that impressive, the return on investment for these ships is the complete opposite. All of them have increased AT LEAST 100% in value, with the most recent example of 6243 Brickbeard’s Bounty. Set Analysis Realistically, I believe that 6243 is the one set that will provide more insights into the potential performance of 70413 The Brick Bounty, as the sets themselves are extremely similar. The rest of the sets in the list are either Pre-2000, or re-releases of previous versions. It is encouraging to see that LEGO decided to go with a significantly higher piece count for this newest pirate ship release. While not on the same level as the retired Pirates of the Caribbean sets, I do think that the design of the set is very appealing and the set reviews on LEGO Shop at Home seem to suggest buyers think the same. I do want to note that some people feel the “interior” of the set could have used a little more detail. Besides that, the set includes 7 standard Pirates minifigures, none of which strike me as special enough to increase the value of the set once retired. It would be nice if LEGO found a way to innovate/change the minifigures in this line; they are just too similar to previous versions. Since this set has practically just been released, it is pretty normal not to read too many comments about it in the forums. I think there will be plenty of time to acquire this set at decent discounts, and the initial price point of $99.99 already makes it appealing for the less “serious” LEGO investor. Future Performance I figured I would include some sort of forecast of where I think sets will go in the future in my articles, based on basic regression analysis and just plain trending. If nothing else, it can give some people a very high level idea of potential future performance. In this particular case, the sample is way too small to run any kind of significant regression as, in reality, there is only one set that I see as comparable to The Brick Bounty (Brickbeard’s Bounty). Still, I do believe the path of 70413 can sort of follow that of 6243, so we can still make a high level prediction of long term value. 6243 – Performance One thing to note about this graph: the points in blue are estimated, as we have no actual data points that far in the past. I estimated them based on the usual assumption that retired sets grow a lot faster over the first 2 years of retirement, and then plateau at around 4 or 5 years. All prices are assumed to be end of year. 2014 and 2015 are actual historical values from the Brickpicker Price Guide. As you can imagine, 6243 has been impacted by the release of 70413 as buyers have the option to pay retail for a set that is significantly larger than the $200 counterpart. 70413 – Projected Performance Given this information, we can come up with an estimate of what 70413 will be worth 5 years after retirement, assuming a new ship is released at some point in the fourth year. The growth of this set has been adjusted downward to try and capture the change in the market environment. Even then, we could see a CAGR of over 15% by 2022 and an increase over retail of around 120%. Final Thoughts Pirate ships hold a special place in the heart of LEGO investors and collectors alike; Not only great performers over the course of the years, but great toys and display pieces. I really think that despite the changes in the LEGO investing landscape, these well done ships will continue to produce decent results in the long run. *This is NOT investment advice. It is just my personal opinion about the set’s potential based on historical information and a set of assumptions. As with anything, past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please do your own research before making a decision. View full blog article

Had to post this. I had a dream last night that I was scooping up deals at a Meijers last night. Understand that 1) I have never had a dream about buying lego before, and (2) I have never set foot in or have any idea what a Meijers looks like as we don't have them in Canada. In my dream it was basically a Wal-mart with a Meijers sign, and for some reason I was getting a lot of the Yoda and 501st recon walker set for $3 each. I have been reading about the big scores members have made there too long now it seems as it's invading my private dream space. Bizarre.

I've moved onto the PC. Although I accidentally won a used PS last week.

Really amazed me how big it was.

order the same the other day that death star gonna kill your GBH 2x 21108 1x series 2 simpson 1x GBH

4204 the mine - sold for 130€ + sh. 9476 - orc forge - 80€ + sh

Ultra agents ocean hq price jumping up on Amazon. Sold one for $150, paid under 60.

Hard to tell exactly because some orders contained parts for other sets to minimize my shipping cost from any individual store. My closet guess is probably $375 USD + or - $20. Pros: #1 all new parts with no concerns about pets, smoke, discoloration, fading, etc #2 got to pay for the set a little at a time as I made 1 to 2 orders per month #3 saved probably $200 over eBay pricing for used sets #4 sense of accomplishment to bricklink a 2000+ piece set. Cons: #1 no box or instructions, which could easily set me back $100 + USD each to pick up later #2 not 100% original as discussed so resale is really diminished. Unless LEGO releases new sets with sand green 1x8 and/or 1x2 with grooves it would cost me about $300 to get the original parts I needed. #3 very labor and time consuming to acquire all the parts individually. The first 1500 are easy, it's the last 800 that take the effort and money. I probably made 10 separate orders.

Didn't make the Amazon cut-off so I've been shifting to Craigslist and am getting lots of nibbles, especially after I put up my Star Wars listing with 12 different sets. I've sold a star wars advent for $75 CDN (paid $50), a corporate alliance tank and endor troop battlepack combo for $60 (paid $30 total) and razcal's glider and crawley's claw ripper combo for $40 (paid $25). All today. Eat it Amazon. When someone has a 99 sell score they should be able to sell anything regardless of arbitrary volumes. And I pay no fees to you now. Bwah-hah-hah.

Ed commented on chaos in the beginning but I do not believe he really ever followed up with any more details. That is meant not that he should but I take it that there is not a specific event happening but a complete permanent change in the dynamics.... Otherwise we can be asking in 2049 if this is the Chaos Ed meant ? lol

ms 10/24/07 04/14/09 538 days cc 10/24/07 12/06/09 774 days gg 03/05/08 11/08/09 613 days fb 09/12/09 12/30/13 1570 days ge 03/03/10 10/15/14 1687 days ps 05/12/11 11/30/15 1664 days th 03/03/12 10/04/14 945 days pc 02/14/13 11/30/15 1020 days pr 01/01/14 11/30/15 699 days da 01/01/15 11/30/15 334 days

The x wing looks good!

Just sold a 9495 Y-Wing and a 75003 A-Wing for $140 shipped.

Weird thing happened with my Shop at Home order from last weekend. Here's what I ordered: 1x MC Crafting Box, 2x Brainiac Attacks, 1x GBH Here's what I actually received: 1x Brainiac Attacks, 2x GBH, 1x Power Functions Battery Box (WTH?) I called LEGO CS today and they made it right. They were able to send me the other Brainiac set and just cancelled the Crafting Box since it's OOS ships in 30 days. I also get to keep the extra GBH and Battery Box.

so from now on let´s just post set box stock photos - it will save everyone a whole heap of time.

Cinderellas Dream Carriage - SOLD OUT @ US LEGO Shop at Home !! hopefully Cindy's castle bites the dust soon.

Easy explanation that I've seen first hand lots of times before: You tell 2 or 3 friends that you got an auction running in which you would like to reach a certain price - and they keep bidding up to that price until the very end in hope another bidder who is unknown to seller + friends will outbid them. Heck I get requests to bid on random auctions of colleagues nearly every day just to drive the price up...That's one reason why I only sell with buy-it-now - auctions are way to much hassle.

That is indeed the direction where it is going. One has to buy exclusives early on. But with the risk to be storing them for a long time. Like what is happening now with PS, T1, TB and others. I am happy I got my fill of Sandcrawlers. So I do not have to worry about it anymore. If it retires suddenly. About your Technic question: Sure there is still money to be made if yo buy it cheap. But I have noticed that more Technic sets are bought for investment than there is demand from the end-user. Technic is quite a niche market with mostly AFOL builders. These AFOL's mostly already bought their Technic Flagship upon release. Or when they could buy it at a nice discount. So hopes are set on new-born AFOLS with a taste for Technic. For me that will be a long wait. Too long. I'd rather invest in something else. Just my 0.02

Ahh yes I forgot about the gingerbread house.....GBH was what we used before that little gold nugget was released. Guess we better use GBHQ.

His famous last words.

WOW an R2D2 auction sold for £362 + postage on eBay yesterday, that's Town Hall prices! Link

Exactly. Europe is not as united as some people think. Thank god.

Perhaps Spanish LEGO buyers are more social. I know people here prefer buying from other local people even if it means they have to pay a bit more. You with buyin of 22€ less will have less margin to sell in Belgium with shipment included. So i'm not worried about selling my SC vs yours.

You don't. You sell it on the dutch market only.

Sold a 75028 Star Wars Clone Turbo Tank for 10 euro cash to the chimney sweeper.

I'll help clean-up the coupons once we switch to a new round.

HIGHWAY TO HOTH!!!

Seeing these pics of series 7&8 made me want to collect mixels. Like all of them. When series one first came out I got one for my son, it was okay, but until now I only got maybe one or two from each series. I found some at various stores discounted from time to time and sold a few on eBay. I did end up buying about 7 or 8 sets of the space guys from the Lego website when they went half off, and built one of those sets. I've noticed after I build each mixel I'm more impressed with it than I thought I would be based on the package pic. They just look better in real life. So anyway, after seeing series 7&8 pics I decide I'm going to try to get them all, even past ones I've sold I want back. I used some coupon combos to get some good deals on a bunch of series three that have been hanging around my TRU on clearance forever, and got a few others here and there. I've been building one a day for a few days now, and they really look neat all together. for those who have some of these for investments, I'm sure they will all pay off someday for you. The mixel theme has to end someday, and then I think a lot of people will want to have the complete set.

Super hard since using that abbreviation has NEVER been a thing here.

Quiet weekend so far - some Architecture UN´s and Minecraft Mine all 20% off.

Where we go... there are no rails!

You derail more than the Constitution Train.....

Offcourse Mr. Black Bounty.

This picture was taken Sept 2010 in Rockefeller Center Lego Store...I I was still in my dark ages, I wish I had a clue and bought all the 10212 and the 10019.... I would have no issues leaving the DS for later.....