Leaderboard

First time we've ever hit 100 orders in 24 hours. I'll try to grab a picture Monday before the mail pickup.

Who is this nobody you speak of...?

I love the Sea Cow more with each passing day...

Welcome to the first entry of what I would like to think of as a revamped Evaluation Corner article. The idea behind this new format is to offer a little more historical and analytical data when evaluating sets for potential investment, in a more visual way. Hopefully you will like it; be sure to add your feedback or comments! Historical & Theme Analysis The topic of this first article will be the recently released The Brick Bounty – 70413. The “Pirates” LEGO theme has become one of those recurring ones we expect to pop up in stores every few years. It really needs no explanation; kids love pirates and AFOLs really appreciate a well- designed LEGO ship. So, how has the Pirates theme performed over the course of the years when compared to some of the other “evergreen” lines? As you can see, the theme sits slightly below the average LEGO theme CAGR of 11.55%, seemingly indicating the performance of its sets has not been quite as stellar. However, it is important to mention that all of the themes showcased above have been around for a long, long time. The aggregate CAGR number is somewhat skewed negatively as time goes by and the return gets spread out over a larger period of time and more sets are added to the sample. Of course, these only highlights the performance of the theme as a whole, and while that is good information to have, we should focus our attention in the performance of pirate ships. The graph below includes all the pirate ships in the theme with over 500 pieces, excluding the Imperial Flagship. It is pretty clear that while the overall theme CAGR is not that impressive, the return on investment for these ships is the complete opposite. All of them have increased AT LEAST 100% in value, with the most recent example of 6243 Brickbeard’s Bounty. Set Analysis Realistically, I believe that 6243 is the one set that will provide more insights into the potential performance of 70413 The Brick Bounty, as the sets themselves are extremely similar. The rest of the sets in the list are either Pre-2000, or re-releases of previous versions. It is encouraging to see that LEGO decided to go with a significantly higher piece count for this newest pirate ship release. While not on the same level as the retired Pirates of the Caribbean sets, I do think that the design of the set is very appealing and the set reviews on LEGO Shop at Home seem to suggest buyers think the same. I do want to note that some people feel the “interior” of the set could have used a little more detail. Besides that, the set includes 7 standard Pirates minifigures, none of which strike me as special enough to increase the value of the set once retired. It would be nice if LEGO found a way to innovate/change the minifigures in this line; they are just too similar to previous versions. Since this set has practically just been released, it is pretty normal not to read too many comments about it in the forums. I think there will be plenty of time to acquire this set at decent discounts, and the initial price point of $99.99 already makes it appealing for the less “serious” LEGO investor. Future Performance I figured I would include some sort of forecast of where I think sets will go in the future in my articles, based on basic regression analysis and just plain trending. If nothing else, it can give some people a very high level idea of potential future performance. In this particular case, the sample is way too small to run any kind of significant regression as, in reality, there is only one set that I see as comparable to The Brick Bounty (Brickbeard’s Bounty). Still, I do believe the path of 70413 can sort of follow that of 6243, so we can still make a high level prediction of long term value. 6243 – Performance One thing to note about this graph: the points in blue are estimated, as we have no actual data points that far in the past. I estimated them based on the usual assumption that retired sets grow a lot faster over the first 2 years of retirement, and then plateau at around 4 or 5 years. All prices are assumed to be end of year. 2014 and 2015 are actual historical values from the Brickpicker Price Guide. As you can imagine, 6243 has been impacted by the release of 70413 as buyers have the option to pay retail for a set that is significantly larger than the $200 counterpart. 70413 – Projected Performance Given this information, we can come up with an estimate of what 70413 will be worth 5 years after retirement, assuming a new ship is released at some point in the fourth year. The growth of this set has been adjusted downward to try and capture the change in the market environment. Even then, we could see a CAGR of over 15% by 2022 and an increase over retail of around 120%. Final Thoughts Pirate ships hold a special place in the heart of LEGO investors and collectors alike; Not only great performers over the course of the years, but great toys and display pieces. I really think that despite the changes in the LEGO investing landscape, these well done ships will continue to produce decent results in the long run. *This is NOT investment advice. It is just my personal opinion about the set’s potential based on historical information and a set of assumptions. As with anything, past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please do your own research before making a decision. View full blog article

Finally picked up a Sandcrawler last night with a bunch of VIP's and GBH. Got the cost below $200.

Went on a tour of BN in 2 states bought up all the UN with the 30% off coupon 10% membership and $50 rolling GCs came out to $23 each.

A few things over the past 24 hours... To much to list but tis the season!!

I think TLG know as well as anyone else that this year's demand was only there because of investors predicting eol. I would be shocked if this level of sales are sustained post Christmas if it survives the retirement period. Add to that the fact that there are 2 new modulars coming up of which the FH is MASSIVE. This one is definitely going this year. But don't expect much returns on investment for a few years.

I am sure the bosses of Galeria-Kaufhof will be wondering about that soon too!

If hydra smash stays sold out, quicksilver exclusive to that set I'm pretty sure. Short life if you want all the avengers from second movie

I'm at a big grown up party right now and just shot a Jack & Coke out my nose. Thanks for that.

Haven't posted in a while, and was running out of things to build. Went on a building frenzy and built all this in the past week! Can't seem to load the other pics. Other sets built are Eiffel Tower, Space Needle, Vader, Grievous, Obi-Wan figures, finally the Gingerbread house.

I love your bickering, you're like a married couple

Offcourse Mr. Black Bounty.

Not until Tuesday 12/1 15% off

Got my five yesterday, and they're all sold already at $24 each (includes shipping).

And about a year of shelf life...

3 x AT-AT from Meijer for $67 ea.

I see this one doing really well. But watch your buy-in people. As always... as low as can be.

That was asking for a pancake. Anything packed with the DS will get crushed. It isn't the Death Star for nothing.

x2 $40 GBH x3 $24 Target Minifgure Cube x1 $65 Ninjago Golden Dragon x1 $60 Coast Guard Plane x1 $12 Springtime Scene All on eBay, all shipped

Valid. Dcd is on the ball. And clearly agrees with me. But who else? This set pops up on the forum discussion about as often as a south African meerkat pops up on the frozen tundra.

I've had it for over a year.

QFLLer. Very disappointed

Is it facing south by any chance?

Got my SOH from AWD in the mail. Was described as "very good" but was still factory sealed with what I'd call minor creasing and denting. Not bad at all for $260 with 10% back.

36 RE

I always like to keep the freebies boxed away for a few years and bury them. This year I stumbled upon 100 of 40082 that I got when buying 10229 at the end of Oct 2013 from LEGO Shop at Home. Sold all of them for $60 on amazon and netted $50 each. 10229 did pretty well too

Great timing and deal.

If they don't sell it at TRU for the next 3 years.

i was on US page. i cleared my cookies and everything is back to sold out. i should've tried ordering - i had the GH house promo showing in my cart with 2 Droids. Situation normal. Uh everything is under control. Nothing to see here - move along move along. ' this one i think is really going but not sold out at shop at home. no more shipping stock at walmart or target. 3rd party seller only on amazon. still in stock at TRU so who knows.

Nah, in germany the law says that if you have an offer in printed advertisement, you actually have to have stock in your shops present. If not it is against the law. But of course they violate the rules...and noone really cares

really nice evaluation, i loveee this new version !

December 2

At MSRP ($130) this set is a fair bet. At $70-$85 (which wasn't real difficult over the past couple of months) it's going to be a very nice acquisition. Don't be surprised when this one hits $200 a year from now. It's as good a non-exclusive, non-UCS set as there is out there.

Looks pretty promising Sequel on the way on 2018 and I'm sure that Ant Man will show up in a few other MCU titles

Sorry about that. I did and was able to use it in two transactions no problem.

LEGO Shop at Home shipped a GH for an order in which everything else was cancelled. Nice of them.

You could always put a few things away and bring them out later for a special family night or something to spread it out a little. I always have gifts socked away and sometimes I'll just randomly pull one out to make any day a special day. Kids tend to get so much stuff from relatives and parents that is it seriously overwhelming. I had not had an opportunity to give my niece her birthday gift until a few months after her birthday and she loved it because she was not expecting it and it was the only gift she got that day.

last 2 xmas trains, $50 something on Amazon, pocketed $43 I think after fees, shipping. Basically 43% off my $100 orders on Shop @ Home

There do seem to be a surplus of these... but that could dry up in the coming weeks... it really hard to say. (BTW... we all make the occasional return of an unwanted purchase, but openly discussing buying on speculation, and then returning "the losers" is generally frowned upon in this forum... not my idea... just then traditional policy here).

I also have inside knowledge because I once worked as electrician and I have installed a spy camera into one of TLG executive room's false ceiling. Now if anybody wants verified info on retirement, please wire over 2% of RRP of the set(s) that you want to find out. Minimum charge is USD 50. Hurry, the more you buy, the more you earn! PM me for my bank account details.

Recent build with a shark from the bulk bin. **How do you add a photo using the mobile app, I have never been successful and have to resort to the desktop version.**

Domestic: $257,760,692 55.0% + Foreign: $211,000,000 45.0% = Worldwide: $468,760,692 Not that unpopular?

These look fantastic. Architecture 2016 Venice (21026) Berlin (21027) New York City (21028) Burj Khalifa (21031)

Put this guy together today - super fun build & learned some new techniques with building the dome too....