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Recently, several major news outlets have stated that there is a “looming” shortage of LEGO bricks on the horizon in some European countries. The continued strong growth of The LEGO Group...basically a Compound Annual Growth Rate of around 20% for the last seven or eight years, has taxed the production capacity of the company and has forced them to admit that there could be problems acquiring LEGO sets this Holiday season. According to LEGO press officer, Roar Trangbeck, "The demand for Lego products during the first half of 2015 has been significantly higher than our and our customers' expectations and projections and this has put a strain on the Lego Group's manufacturing facilities globally." In simpler terms, LEGO products are too darn popular...and for good reason mind you. Recently, LEGO has made an effort to bring the LEGO brick to the Far Eastern markets, exacerbating the shortage situation even more in non-North American countries. The LEGO Group is building a new LEGO factory in Jiaxing, China, but unfortunately, the manufacturing plant will not be ready until 2017. It also didn’t help that The LEGO Movie was extremely popular and many of the company’s new non-brick products like TV shows and video games have become Über popular as well. This is a situation that most companies would love...factories running at full tilt and customers buying up existing inventories at record rates. But LEGO has always been mindful of upsetting customers and their customer service and satisfaction has always been exemplary. So what’s the world number one toy maker to do? How about ban some customers? Now, before anyone gets offended or questions my motives, I would like to state this is all pure speculation based on recent activities and happenings. Over the past several years, there have been a faction of North American LEGO customers banned from the LEGO Shop @ Home VIP program and online purchases. Granted, many of these banned customers bought in excess of The LEGO Group’s purchase limits and were obvious resellers, which in itself is not illegal, but some companies frown upon the process. LEGO wants to sell to the end user first and would rather not have non-sanctioned resellers sell to the end user, unless a person goes through their approval process of becoming a brick and mortar toy and LEGO seller. This makes sense and I completely understand (...but respectfully disagree with) their possible stance on the situation. That being said, LEGO reselling has largely been a North American phenomena over the past ten years or so and European and British LEGO customers were rarely, if ever, banned for excessive LEGO purchases...until now. Over the past several months, more and more non-North American customers have been getting banned from LEGO Shop @ Home for exceeding purchase limits or just buying excessive amounts of LEGO sets in a short time period. This is new...and news. LEGO fans, collectors and resellers from outside the United States have never been subject to any sort of bans for purchases to my knowledge. Many people far exceeded purchase limits and were not banned and this went on for years. So why the change in philosophy? How about a shortage of LEGO bricks? Now, it’s possible that LEGO reselling has become rampant in Great Britain and Europe, thus the reason for the bans. It is also possible that LEGO is feeling the pinch of the shortages and is making sure whatever LEGO sets they have for sale are going directly to the end user. If they ban a reseller...so what? The savvy reseller will find other ways to acquire LEGO sets. But at least this way, LEGO assures that at least a portion of LEGO sets will go to end users instead of resellers, who could buy 10, 20 or more of one kind of set to resell on LEGO secondary sites. Personally, I found this recent revelation about a LEGO shortage in Europe and increasing bans from LEGO retail outlets too coincidental for there not to be a connection. Just from speaking with many non-North American members over the course of the last several years, I don’t think reselling of LEGO sets in Great Britain and Europe to be anywhere near the levels of the United States and Canada, but it’s probably a growing concern for The LEGO Group, especially considering the fact that there is a possible shortage of bricks. So what does this shortage mean for the LEGO fan and/or reseller? Well, fans will have to wait for LEGO sets in many instances. “Temporarily Out of Stock” has become commonplace on LEGO Shop @ Home. Many “exclusives” are backordered frequently, so fans can get impatient, especially with the Holiday season right around the corner. Resellers can take advantage of these shortages by being the only source for some of these sets. But resellers also need to be careful and purchase within the limits issued by LEGO or fear a ban from LEGO retail outlets and VIP programs. All in all, it’s an interesting time to be a LEGO fan, collector and reseller. The legendary LEGO brick has never been more popular, yet “everything is not awesome.” Poor Little Timmy might not get that fancy new Ultimate Collector Series set in time for Christmas. Good thing there are LEGO resellers ready to step in and sell their sets to Little Timmy’s parents...

Welcome to a (maybe?) regular update on what I'm currently investing in. While some would prefer to read through threads to listen to various members' opinions about what they are buying – or not buying, as the case may be, I think some folks would rather save some time and get the real scoop on what Big Blue Dog Bricks (BBDBricks) is up to. In this case, putting my money where my mouth is and telling readers what I bought this week, and why. Big Blue Dog Bricks: What I'm Investing In Now: Guardians of the Galaxy Edition! I'm a small to medium-sized investor, height wise, weight wise and probably also in terms of total investment. I've sold around 30k or so (before fees, shipping, taxes, etc) in the last three years, so not big time but not exactly green around the investment ears. I started small, with about 1k in the first several months and built from there, so I imagine this post might appeal to those either at a similar level of investment or who want to move from having a closet full of Lego to a basement full of Lego without being a hoarder. (For clarification, the Macks are hoarders, in that they don't sell their sets, while I regularly shift inventory to make room for more inventory) What I bought this week: Guardians of the Galaxy Sets! It is time, sheeple, to follow my advice and grab a few complete sets of this line before the ship sails off into the EOL night. As an investment vehicle this small theme within the larger Marvel line has quite a few things going for it right now and not too many negatives. Pros: Pretty solid movie: I double checked the box office haul just now and, if Wikipedia is to be trusted, made $774 million dollars worldwide, which is perhaps a little more than 'solid'. As a casual superheroes fan Guardians of the Galaxy (GotG) wasn't well known to me and I imagine others were also not as familiar with GotG storylines, villains and heroes as well. Despite not being as ubiquitous as Batman, Superman, Spiderman et al, the movie managed to do pretty darn well. If people will spend money to go the cinema, it stands to reason they might want licensed toys as well. Of course, that alone isn't enough of a pro on its own, so let's also consider some other positives. 18 month mark: The Milano Spaceship Rescue and Starblaster Showdown have already moved to Sold Out on Shop at Home. They may or may not come back, but as of this writing that is where these two sets stand. The Knowhere Escape Mission is still available, but it seems unlikely it will not succumb to its fate sooner rather than later. This week I grabbed six Milano sets from Wal-mart.ca, 50% off. I laughed when I saw the sticker on the outside of the original Lego shipping boxes – Do Not Put on Shelf Before June 1, 2014. Clearly, initial demand didn't require Wal-mart to open these bad boys up, or they perhaps got stuck behind other boxes and patiently sat in a warehouse somewhere for the last year and a half. At any rate, they are mine, now, and I love them (especially at 50% off) . Even though these might not be available at the official Lego website, it should be possible to get creative and add these sets to your stash over the next couple months from other retailers. 18 months is a standard (well, I don't know if this word applies to any Lego sets anymore) cycle and I'm glad they seemingly aren't extending production for a full two years (or more) which would make the opportunity window potentially much smaller before new sets hit with the sequel. Now is a great time to buy, as your hold time will be significantly less than many who hit up clearance sales last fall or this winter/spring/summer. Definite sequel coming: Always good news – wait, almost always? My worries with slightly less well known licensed lines is that they will drift more towards Lone Ranger or Prince of Persia type returns. It is easy to forget that LR still had a large box office return even though critics didn't especially love it (or even like it). Box office alone doesn't an investment make. A sequel slated for 2017 means GotG will certainly be back in front of the consumer in perhaps another 18 months. This could be a double-edged sword if the new (probable) Lego sets are too similar to those out now, or worse, a straight up remake of, say, the Milano. That being said, if the current sets get the retired tag there should be a window to sell, and a savvy Brickpicker should have leaks about the upcoming sets long before the general public does, and can act accordingly. Although I am buying these sets, I'm certainly not going 20-30 complete sets deep. I think it might be hard to move that many at a decent return and the window is too short to go all in, at least for BigBlue. Easily collectible: Unlike a lot of other lines, there are only three sets. I think this is advantageous for a few reasons. Number one, easy to invest in. I've spent the last couple of weeks searching out deals to get complete sets for future selling. Number two, easy for buyers to get all three at once without breaking the bank. It appeals to a lot more collectors. I personally hate starting to collect (for myself or my family) in a theme with a crazy amount of sets as I am a bit neurotic and like to have ALL OF THEM. Having an uncompleted theme of all the Hobbit or Lord of the Rings sets makes my brain uneasy. I think the phenomena is common, or at least I tell myself that to make myself feel better. This is a neat and tidy package of three, relatively easy to list and ship together. Having one offs, even if you got them at a great discount, might be harder to move even if priced well. As a collector, I hate paying for shipping more than once, so if I want sets I seek out lots. I can't imagine the majority of future buyers wanting to shell out over MSRP + shipping for one of the three sets, when listings for the whole line are also available. Obviously, those buying gifts or completing partially collected sets would be interested in single set sales, but my gut says most serious buyers post-EOL are going to be collectors looking for all three. Prove me right, Marvel collectors! Cons: There are cons, and not the convicts terrorizing the Lego City sets. Although I'm pretty confident the sequel will do well at the box office, even if it isn't as good or nearly as good as the original, the threat of a remade Milano scares me. Chinese counterfeiters scare me too, but I still think the target market I'm selling to is interested in the sets and genuine Lego products. Another major con is I think these have a definite ceiling in terms of growth. I've been able to source my complete sets at around 40% off MSRP or better (for all three) with some careful planning and buying, so I think my risk level is quite low. That being said, I don't expect double MSRP by next Christmas and would be quite content with perhaps 20% over MSRP sales. Anything more would be a bonus, and I'm only looking to move around 5-10 lots, definitely not more. These are a nice tangential investment for me, and might be a good call for a small to medium-sized investor who is looking for a short(ish) hold with a decent return, provided they are carefully sourced with maximal discounts. I'm certainly not advocating lining your stockroom with these sets, especially at or near MSRP, but I think there will be a window to make a decent return.

The LEGO Christmas Train (40138), which was a free gift with purchase of $99 or more is no longer available at LEGO Shop at Home in the US. It appears to have sold out sometime overnight. The train was the first of two holiday free gift with purchase sets for 2015, with the Gingerbread House (40139) available starting November 27 (Black Friday). The Holiday Train promotion ran from October 13 until November 13, or until supplies ran out, which appears to have happened with about 8 days remaining. Product should still be available at retail Lego Stores for at least a few more days. The promotion runs until November 20 (or until supplies run out) in the UK. The Christmas Train is currently seeing purchase prices of $18-$25 on eBay. Expect that prices could go up as stock dwindles, and word of the sold out status at Shop at Home travels. Prices could continue to rise as the Gingerbread House debuts later this month, and sellers pair the sets together. 2014 Holiday sets are a mixed bag, as the first Holiday set, 40106 Elves Toy Shop - which pairs nicely with 10245 Santa's Workshop - is currently valued at $30. Meanwhile, 40107 Ice Skating, is currently valued at $18. Ice Skating was not a fan favorite, which could explain its lackluster value.

There have been a lot of changes since LEGO almost went bankrupt in the early 2000s: licensed sets became the norm, better designs started coming into production andLEGO became the world’s largest toy manufacturer. All this changes and subsequent success created a new breed of investing: buying sets and holding after their retirement date. For years, this alternative market went unnoticed, propping up the prices of popular sets such as the 10179 Millenium Falcon. As expected, however, higher returns attracted new investors, inherently changing the way the secondary market behaved. In this new era, with many more participants and higher price pressure, it is extremely easy for newer investors to get burnt out, make mistakes or even completely forget about their LEGO investing hobby (or business). For this reason, I decided to write this short article with some investment tips and strategies that can help the newer participants enjoy and make money from their favorite toy brand. Golden Rule: Set your long term goals LEGO investing is a lot like more traditional financial planning. If you don’t take the time to set some objectives, there will be no way to completely gauge success or even to properly develop an investment strategy. For that reason, the first step will be to figure out what exactly you are trying to achieve: Do you see LEGO investing as a key part of your investment portfolio or more as a side business/hobby for extra cash? To me, this is the most important question. Someone willing to seriously put some money into LEGO for the long term will need to consider a vastly larger number of factors than someone who is just willing to put in a small percentage of their funds. Insurance, proper storage and fund allocation take a more important role in the case of the former. In the case you see this more as an online business, a good inventory tracking system, shipping supplies and time will be the main considerations. Once you have determined you long-term strategy, it is important to figure out which types of sets you will be investing in. To me, focusing on large LEGO exclusives is the “safer” way to lock in a pretty decent return in the long term. While the capital investment and storage space required to invest in these sets is significantly higher/larger than the average, most of them have also produced some of the most consistent and positive returns in the investment market. It is easy to see why. We are talking about iconicand highly detailed sets, from both licensed and unlicensed themes, that the adult collector with a higher disposable income is very attracted to. That’s definitely the most attractive target market when investing in LEGO sets. Furthermore, the higher price point and space requirements limit the amount of sets that can be hoarded by the average investor, thus reducing supply in the long term. While some people may be able to spend several thousand dollars and dedicate a whole room to store those dozens of Death Stars, most people struggle with at least one of those two key considerations. This is not to say investing in smaller sets or even figures makes no sense. We all know that sometimes sets like the X-Wing 9493 produce outstanding percentage returns for one reason or another, so it is completely understandable for investor to consider these for investment. Also, non-exclusives get the advantage when it comes to acquiring them at significant discounts given LEGO’s policy of not allowing discounts on exclusives. The problem with these sets, in my opinion, is that it is so much harder to pick winners and avoid purchasing the duds. Does Home One ring a bell? Setting up an strategy After deciding which blend of sets you will be pursuing, it is time to set up a buying strategy. I think it is extremely helpful to figure out how many copies of a particular set you would like to have before retirement, and making periodic purchases to make sure you meet that goal. As an example, you could decide that you will purchase one Palace Cinema each month to make sure you get to your desired goal of 10 before retirement. Making sure you stick to your strategy will make it easier for you to achieve your minimum goal and avoid having to scramble to get multiple quantities when the set starts disappearing from the market. How many times have you read someone mentioning that they would like to have a couple more of a particular set when it is already too late? Don’t make that mistake yourself! If by the time a set starts showing signs of retirement you already have your minimum quantity, then whatever you are able to acquire after that will be just an extra source of happiness instead of stress. Of course, your strategy can be flexible enough to make sure that you are taking advantage of potential deals or discounts. For example, LEGO will be offering double VIP points in early October and it might make sense to hold this month’s purchases until then. Having said that, I recommend making this kind of behavior an exception rather than the norm; It just does not make sense to completely miss out of a set that ends up appreciating more than 50% because you waited a couple weeks to save 10%. Core-Satellite Approach Just like in the stock market, you can insert a little variety into your investing life by following the core-satellite approach. For example, let’s assume you have an investing budget of $1000 per month. You could divide this into a core fund of $800 that you will allocate to long term, safer investments (exclusives, Ideas sets or whatever you really want to add to your portfolio and keep for the long haul), while keeping the remaining $200 for riskier bets. You think Raptor Escape will be a Zombies 2.0? You can throw your money into some of those; want to try and flip some Wall-E sets before they are available? That works too! By dividing your investments in this manner you pretty much guarantee you’ll invest the $800 every month, while still having some money to test your set-picking prowess. This leads nicely into my last point. Personally, I believe that investing in LEGO should be not only profitable, but fun as well. It is easy to get inpatient or even bored when all you are doing is hoarding sets and not making any money out of it. While this is an essential part of any investment, I find that people should always try to keep things interesting and fun by trying to flip sets, sell minifigures or even re-selling used sets. Any of these activities will generate some extra income and make you feel a little more excited, therefore avoiding falling into a routine that can get boring over time. Obviously, these tips will not work for everyone. Find what works for you, think about your goals and stick to an strategy and you will be in the path of having a pretty healthy alternative income stream in the long run. Hope you enjoyed this article, thanks for reading!