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Having analyzed those LEGO Webshop EU graphs a bit for info on exclusive sets, one could draw some conclusions like the following 10 fun/trivia facts (without liability) - if the data found there is more or less correct: 1.) "Is this good or bad?" The worst selling exclusive sets in the shown timeframe of March 2015 were: - Benny's Spaceship - Sydney Opera House - Architecture Studio - Ewok Village - Fairground Mixer - Metal Beard's Sea Cow - The Tower of Orthanc So, not too much love especially for the LEGO Movie sets with Benny's Ship seemingly being THE worst selling exclusive overall in March. Now the big question is: What is better - Investing in slow sellers, so there is less competition (but also less demand) post-EOL; or investing in the big sellers, having to deal with masses of other resellers (while having more potential buyers)? 2.) "...if only this was less expensive" While Sydney Opera House, Ewok Village and The Tower of Orthanc didn't sell too well, they all made remarkable sale jumps in double VIP time, from which one could conclude that people merely regard them too expensive instead of generally unattractive (while the sales of the two above-mentioned Movie sets did not profit from double VIP...) 3.) Red 5...4...3...2...1 The EOL run for Red 5 seems to be in full swing because sales pre-2xVIP and during 2xVIP were somewhat identical and surprisingly high (for the set itself and also in relation to other SW sets) 4.) Too much, too late The Exo Suit is selling pretty good, but LEGO has amassed way too much stock for a set that should have been retired one month ago - maybe they ordered that massive stock some time ago already and were not able to cancel it while realizing too late that demand was not keeping its high level (like at the introduction of the set) and so they would get way too many sets in the end. 5.) The "No-restockers" While most sets got restocked 1-4 times during the period, there were 5-6 exclusives that got no restock at all - all of which are sets that were already stocked in high numbers. If this is a hint for possible EOL, I don't know. Why there are some sets stocked in very high numbers and others in rather small numbers - I also don't know. It might be a question of production capacity or/and LEGO's EOL plan. 6.) Old vs. New Death Star and Sandcrawler sales seem to be OK to good and pretty much on par - potentially leading to two quite different views on the sets (Death Star being 6 years older...) 7.) London calling It seems like 3+ Tower Bridges are sold for every 1 Sydney Opera House. 8.) Duel of the necomers Slave 1 seems to have slightly outperformed the Detective's Office during 2x VIP looking at "sets sold per day (when in stock)". 9.) Investors' Nightmare One of the worst selling non-exclusive sets is B-Wing with about 1 ("one") sold set per day in March... 10.) PC or PR Palace Cinema and Parisian Restaurant look to be selling equally well, having quite similar stock numbers (during March) and having gotten 3 restocks both (in March).

Fill box with helium balloon air cushioning so it lifts just slightly off the scale, thus showing only 13oz

I've spent the morning (Friday off, here) extracting and copying data for most of the sets we're interested in. I have image files for all the currently available exclusives, plus many other sets. Just an FYI. There's so much to do here, lots of info to digest. Here's some early data. The best selling sets were the Helicarrier (700 units is 7 days, steady 100 units/day), Slave 1 (no surprise) and T1 (big surprise, data below). Other robust sales were of all the modulars (roughly 250 units/week for all), Tower Bridge (160 units/week), TOO (90 units/week). T1 was killer, (350 units/week till sold out); the mini cooper not so much. Sydney Opera house moved a steady 40 units/week. The trains were slow movers, and sold in lockstep at about 10 units/week (roughly same numbers of sale for 60050, 60051, and 60052 and the track packs). Speed Champions is interesting. In the EU, the Porsche was the best seller (almost 200 units/week, and the small cars all sold about equally. For every Ferrari Truck sold, they sold 3 sets of the small cars. There's some dogs with few sales, Fairground Mixer, Arctic Base Camp (10 units/week) and Simpson's House. Mindstorms EV3 was completely dead. 42009 moved a steady 60 units/week, while the 42030 Volvo Loader was slower at 30 units/week. In Star Wars, Slave 1 is the champ, which moved 350 units in 4 days to sell out. Sandcrawler was a good mover, 100 units/week, and Death Star which moved 80 units/week. Ewok Village did 50 units/week. Red Five moved at 90 units/week until sold out, twice. Another observation, double VIP sales period had little effect on the data. Basically all these sets had inventory levels move at the same rate pre- and during double VIP. This is just a snapshot, more analysis to come...

A lot of members have answered your questions and helped you out. If you have read or at least scanned most of this thread most of what you're asking is in there. You should be able to form your own opinion/decision by now. Out of curiosity how many of RIs do you have?

I think those willing to pay 5X MSRP already did and those that had to have this set already do. Not sure if they are doing a round 2 of this set but if not I do not see this making it above $60 for a long time. If there is a follow up set RI 2 then all bets are off IMO I would like to know Alpinemaps opinion too but he charges me a consultation fee and money is tight ;)

Wow I have missed out on this thread. It is amazing we have a total male meltdown over a total female set. LOL Reminds me of this famous quote from Jurassic Park. And there is a female Dinosaur set in here to boot. What is not to like about the RI? Buy it up. Dinosaurs eat man

IMHO, this thing needs the 2nd RI (whatever it is called ) AND another NYT article to coincide with the release of 2nd RI to ever reach $90 within the next 2 years.

I can't manage to get it in a box without going over 13 oz. I know some cut corners on shipping (e.***., ship RI in a bag), but I won't. A happy customer is a repeat customer is good word of mouth/feedback. It all translates into more money down the road.

I've decided to sell the rest of my Millenium Falcons at $225 + shipping on eBay and I'm down to my last one. I would love to hold them until the summer but my shelves are overflowing and I really need to make some room.

1. Are you a real person like Nico? 'Cause your posts suggest not. 2. If you haven't bought any RI yet, move on to another set. 3. Feel free to PM other users but I suggest not posting confidential info.

When I first dabbled in Lego investing in the mid 00s, long hold (2-3 years) was the only hold.

Well if you'd like another opinion that will be in line with about 100 other members on this forum, here goes: HOLD. RI is small and easy to store. Put it on your shelf and mark "dont sell until 2017/2018 on it. In terms of boxes for the RI (and bc you're somewhat new) listen to Raven's wisdom. He knows what hes doing. But your "what box to use for RI" issue is now a mute point bc of the aforementioned statement.

RI moved from QFLL status to long term hold awhile ago. You just have to be patient now. I flipped plenty of these at 3-4x RRP when it was a flip. When these came back, I bought for the long term. These are stored away and I won't touch these for long while.

This data is really rather important, and I don't think folks realize what can be done with it yet. Yes, its only EU sales for Lego sites. None-the-less, we can glean a tremendous amount by cross referencing this with other sources. At the end of the day, our community would love to have total inventory numbers, sales numbers, production run amounts, restock amounts, and sales rates, all be set number. We can make some progress to good estimates at these numbers with careful review of this data, with appropriate cross references to other sources such as eBay and Amazon sales, TLG annual reports, and various press releases and advertising data. There's much more to say about this, and eventually, it will warrant its own thread and discussion. For now, I want to really thank rfish, who has grasped the importance of this data well before most of us. I would add, the raw derivative of this data set if really quite interesting, it shows the sales rates. Big sets can move in the range of 500-1000 units/week. (see, for example, detective's office week of March 19 - April 2, ~1000 units; TLG moved about 200/day on March 15 and March 16). That's just EU and just Lego sites. Compare that rate to observed sales numbers on eBay over the same time period. By my count, I have a total of 7 (seven) sales of 10246 in that same time period. This is a ratio of over 100:1. For every unit sold on eBay, Lego SAH EU moved more than 140 units. Just that number is of fascinating use. Now, of course eBay sales are over MSRP, and there's lots of other caveats, but it is still valuable raw data and a kind of calibration we've not had in the past. Frankly, it would be completely worthwhile to compile statistics of this ratio (Lego sales vs. other source sales) for all our exclusives, and include Amazon sales numbers if we can find them as well. Compare those numbers to our stock levels, and I think you're going to find we're actually small-fish in this market, all of us. Some have speculated that resellers dominate this market. I think the opposite may be true. We're a small fraction of TLG overall sales. And, thats very good news. Much, much more to say and think about here, but for now, I hope others are beginning to see what a Gold mine these kind of numbers are. As just another example, it shouldn't be too hard to calibrate how much of TLGs overall sales are in the EU. This would be a pretty good way to extend these EU sales numbers to world-wide overall sales. Really, there's so much that can be done with this data, we're just scratching the surface. Among other things, I hope some folks are getting screen shots of key graphs for exclusive sets, in case this data source goes *poof*. This data really is the "missing link" that will allow us an (unprecedented) way to get the kind of overall sales and inventory data we've long sought.

The Red 5 blew up the Death Star 1 so it will always be popular. What did the blue X-Wing do?

The reason why I stated that box. Free box and only $1.50 more in postage. If you don't care about what your customers think then just send in a tyvek or bubble mailer. Then when one is received with a dent or ding and they want a credit or return you will be out more money than before and possibly get a bad score or metric depending on where you sell which in the long run will cost you even more money.

I've been on an Atlantis kick. I bought a huge lot of 20+ used sets for about $140. As well as a NISB Portal of Atlantis for $55 and a NISB City of Atlantis for $90. I think I may have the whole theme now - lol. These are not for investment (that's probably obvious). My kids and I were watching some old Brickshow reviews and thought a lot of the sets were really cool (Portal of Atlantis and Angler Attack especially). New collectors should peruse some of the old forgotten themes. You can get some cool used stuff that no one else even thinks to looks for on Ebay auction. Also, completed my set of Dragon suit ninjago minifigs and my Vader minifig collection #allthevaders.

As supply diminishes each subsequent halloween will be solid increases in price. I will not be parting with mine for quite some time.

For those who like me think the Hulkbuster Armor in this set although cool is simply too big by comparison with The Hulk maxifigure, here is a much smaller 'midi' sized modification that I think makes a better fit. Sure bigger is better but the armor shouldn't dwarf The Hulk. I mean he's The Hulk for crying out loud! >LEGO HULKBUSTER by ykwan0714 >MOC Hulk Buster Mid. MK2 by ykwan0714

I'm very new on this forum, although a long time collector (the guy who usually buys stuff he was late for because of the Dark Age from you guys ), and I'll give you my perspective on these (remember, more gut feeling, less hard data, I'm very much a novice in investing): 1. See Cow - I never understood anything Lego movie related. I'm a 30+ adult without kids, therefore even as a Lego unconditional, of course I didn't watch it or have been remotely attracted to watch kids' movie. Same goes for sets, nothing really legendary (and no, it won't become next SW or LoTR) for an adult collector who is supposed to shell out 2x or more RRP on this set. Completists? Sure. Others? Selected few enthusiasts who got the set recommended on its supposedly great build, but for that one does not shell out 2x RRP imho. You need to WANT and LOVE and FEEL the set to get your willingness to pay to 400

I missed QFLL on RI, but thankfully (or not, depending on your POV), Lego responded to the QF scenario and made more. Now I have a few dozen and I don't mind waiting until I can (at least) double my money. It's low buy in, low risk, low shipping cost, low effort. They don't take up much space. IN MY OPINION (and I know you didn't ask for it), $90 is pretty pie in the sky for RI. The NYT article has gone from headline, to bird cage liner, to trash can lining, and now we wait. The new Science Adventures IDEAS set (is that happening) might give it a bump... or a kick in the teeth. I know this: I'm not selling now for a few bucks profit on each when it is likely done for good. Now is time to be patient.

we have PM for personal dialog, I believe.

I just completed some in-depth analysis of the various sets in the LEGO Architecture series - based on the new feature of Brickset to track inventory at LEGO.com EU. I found that the lower-priced sets are selling at higher volume, which is pretty much to be expected, but the more costly sets are clearly selling well enough to contribute well in terms daily sales (

Some good analysis, but there's two things I'd pick you up on I don't think you can make the inference from this information that Benny's Spaceship doesn't sell well. It isn't an exclusive and is available at much cheaper prices than directly from Lego, even allowing for VIP points, so why would people buy it from them. The sales info is only useful when looking at genuine exclusives. I can get Metal Beard's Sea Cow and Ewok Village in my local store too. I also don't think you can say something like the Tower of Orthanc didn't sell too well. It sold 400 units in a 3 week period, in just two of their markets. Even allowing for a spike for double VIP, that would amount to signifcant sales value for one set. Think you should highlight point 9, mark it with stars, increase the font just in case anyone has any other idea on this set, even allowing for it being non exclusive, those sales are anemic

In my opinion they store manufactured sets in a warehouse and allocate them for different destinations over time, like shipments to B&M, other retailers, overseas, s@h, etc. according to actual demand and priorities. Restock happens on s@h when stock gets allocated for it.

Really? I tried it on 79105, seems work: the system accepted this code and gave $10 discount. But I must admit I didn't go through the check-out process.

Arctic Batman in stock at WM.ca with %20 clearance: http://www.walmart.ca/en/ip/lego-batman-arctic-batman-vs-mr-freeze-aquaman-on-ice-76000/6000076893774

I

no... for both. A used one for 110 euro? How did you do that!? You scammed some old lady?

"I'm afraid 10188 will be quite operational when the horde arrives"

On the opposite spectrum, there's this

Southcenter Mall in Tukwila, WA is getting a new Lego store!!! Apparently opening Summer 2015. I'm ecstatic that I will now have 2 within 20 min. drive and 3 within 40 min. drive!

Power Functions.

Power Functions I believe.

Don't sweat it. Hold hold hold. The time to sell was at the beginning. The good thing with Lego is you can usually get your money back when you sell if you buy at rrp and not at a super inflated price.....unless you are desperate and need cash. I wish I had 5. I only had one and ended up selling it for $66. Little bit of profit and was fun to flip.

Greetings all! 34 project manager with aerospace background (currently unemployed since December, streak of unfortunate events, but that'll hopefully change soon). I'm originally from Serbia, lived in France for 10 years, a year in Germany and now Netherlands, I've been into Lego as a kid and then caught the bug again back in 2010 (thank you Death Star...). As fellow project manager in aerospace @tabolton314 has put it above, it's been a rabbit hole ever since! Anyway, glad that I've discovered this unique forum, I'm looking forward to sharing many new insights and experiences with fellow Brick lovers!

Yup the bwing stood out in a bad way when I ran an anaysis on my portfolio. If I had had that info, I would definnitely have passed on the b wing and that might be the best use this data serves - check for absolute stinker,, contrast with stock levels in other shops and eBay prices and make an informed decision. Birds data is up now too, so that will be interesting to follow.

How about this code: ThymeID10 It is $10 off $50+. So this time, if a set reaches $49.99 after discount then this code and make it 40% off.

i think if you can get a picture of her signing it, that it could only help the value.

Thanks exciter. And newbie77 got the math right. I just looked over the receipt and that's *exactly* how it worked out. I asked the question in the TRUTH thread yesterday, and didn't expect (or ask) for the 10% discount after the PM. As I mentioned, the math is right, I didn't get the 10% discount after all. What happened was that I walked up to the register, which happened to be manned by an Assistant Manager. I immediately asked for the PM to Amazon, and the AM immediately approved it. She asked if I had a Rewards Card and I pulled out my CC. She scaned my Rewards number and said "if you pay for this with the credit card, you'll save an extra 10%." I was going to pay with the CC for the points no matter what, so I just said ok. So no deception, and I didn't expect that I'd actually get the discount. I only did the e-receipt so I didn't even think about the math when I left (or posted). I'm guessing the computer overrode any discount from the CC considering it was the AM and she was offering it up *after* she ran the PM. Oh, one point - I'm guessing newbie77 is somewhere with higher tax than CA, because his final price is 14 cents higher than the tax I paid. LOL

I have been looking for one of these to complete my arctic sets and it popped up on SAH as Call to Check. So I did, but they said they didn't have any. Did anyone else see this or have any luck getting one? Just trying to figure out if it was really there at all. (MODS - I posted something similar in Daily Deals and I should have posted it here - sorry. Please delete/move the other if needs be)

I was thinking the same thing. I was considering rolling the dice and hope for a city sale or bogo40 to get them down even more, but like I said, these were the first two I have ever seen in my area, so I didn't want to risk losing them. Besides, my coupons were about the expire anyway. I also considered buying more lonely mountains (my store has 5 right now at $140), but the markup turned me off. The icebreakers were at normal retail. I think the LM will sit for awhile. They have been there for weeks already. If a decent sale happens I'll get those at that time.

My TRU also restocked 2 Arctic Ice Breakers today. I'm going to wait until a City sale, but they may not last that long. I did pick-up a Star Destroyer today, but they had 2 yesterday and only one left when I got there tonight. None in the back, so I'll have to wait for another sale to get more.

You have a good memory. That is when I purchased my last two.

Can this be packed in a box and still be under 13 oz? It would be very close. 1-lb priority is probably what it would end up being.

Supply plane obsoleted, accessory pack gone, clearancing at retailers in store, base camp and outpost not available at Walmart online. Just personal opinion as stated.

I can understand some of the company's standing with the Minifigures line or at least believe I do. In the beginning LEGO did not realize how quickly the line would gain traction in popularity practically exploding (in the US mainly). Even so the second series continued with the $2 price tag after increasing the amount produced. Aside from the growing desire by the masses, I think one of the probable reasons why the third series was the first to see a dollar hike would be how the public had found a way around the blind bag which for series 1 & 2 were unique barcodes for each character making the mystery less mysterious. Moving on to series 3 which introduced the fabled 'bump codes', well we know people eventually figured that method out therefore LEGO mixed it up again (around series 8 maybe) by what I can only figure as having a unique series of bump codes per each production run. (I have nothing factual other than personal experience and what others have said to form that last sentence so let's just chuck it to plausible conspiracy.) Anyway The Simpsons Minifigures (or rather the first series of) had the last current raise in price that could understandably make sense seeing how LEGO needed to mold every single character's head plus they also came up with molded sleeves and shorts. A new technique I think really improved the standard minifigure and has paved way to a whole new level for the little guy. Also there is the topic of licensing too although from what I remember it was Fox who went to LEGO so that was negligible. Keeping the price hike afterwards comes across as a "seems we can get away with it so why go back to $3?" sort of logic. True I do not have a real clue as to all the costs the company has to consider and contend with on a regular basis. However I can't quite see any legitimate reason to go so high in such a relatively short timeframe. Each one has been and continues to be made in China. The costs couldn't get much lower for the company.Almost all new parts made for the line get used elsewhere in other themes. Only a couple are too unique for any other use (Medusa for example).The printed designs may be unique but so are a number of other minifigures in regular sets (some have even stayed exclusive to that set).Those are a few reason off the top of my head that I feel would make anyone think the price at this point is simply because they can. There could be other factors such as the price was also meant to deter collectors who intentionally grab certain ones to sell or even to somewhat counter the effect of how people have found ways to beat their blind system. All this is mere speculation almost to the point of conspiracy.

Looks good! I wonder if Lego will release a big house where owners can slide these mini sets into certain place to 'design their own house'.

Good topic. I'll take the bait. Unfort, I do disagree on most items on your list. 1. MetalBeard's Sea Cow (70810) - The movie did great at the box-office. It's sorta too wacky like the majority of non-"2 in 1s" Lego Movie sets. People seem to either love or hate it. It does display better than seen in pics. Can it be Lego's 1st "loser" ship in as long as I can remember. History tells us it should do well after EOL. Who am I to bet against Lego ships? I can't even in this mash-up of a set. 2. The Simpsons House (71006)- looks good. buyer gets a-lot for $200. plenty of minifigs, nice element count, features, and nice smaller "gadgets". The set will be a winner after EOL. 3. Sandcrawler (75059). Have you built this one? This set is awesome design-wise, minifigs, features, vast size, etc... The $300 is due to the many larger plates, treads, and other not so common elements used (plus the license cost). While Sandcrawlers aren't meant to be "good looking" in the films, the ship def is not clumsy especially in Lego form. Furthermore, Jawas and Sandcrawlers have always been popular with original trilogy fans. The 1979 Kenner version is an expensive sought-after toy as are most MOC Jawas. The only reason it didn't sell well in 1979 and 1980 is because of the high price point ($29.88 in 1979 is about $86.61 in today's dollars). This is a popular set just like 10144 was / is. 4. Fairground Mixer (10244) - Kids seem to like this set. It appears to be selling well everytime I/m in a Lego store. It also transforms nicely for "travel" (or better yet, storing on a shelf after playtime). Should do fine EOL. 5. Cargo Plane (42025) - I have no opinion about this set. However, it looks pretty cool. Technics do appreciate slower than most themes except for the Herculean 41999,