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The problem is that most people don't have the 'investor' mindset. People are myopic, impatient, subjective perception of probabilities is heavily biased, fail to consider opportunity costs and expected rate of returns. For example the principle of optimal selling date: when the expected return on the current value of your asset is surpassed by another one after the transaction costs (if they have the same variance). Simply, if you have the option to switch for another asset with a higher expected return. The grave mistake people do here is taking into consideration the original price they bought the asset at. It doesn't matter! Even if you received it free! Only the expected growth rate matters! They like to tell themselves that 'Oh great! I made 100$ on it! It's enough!'. But if you reinvest that 100$+original price into an inferior asset you just made a wrong decision by selling. The issue here is how you calculate expected return and the corresponding risk. The investment valuation method most people use here, even without knowing its name, is the 'comparables' approach. However, since the LEGO market is not exactly consistent over time and largely volatile, predictions are mostly inaccurate and people have to rely on their instincts. But, the essence is still the same. When you want to make a decision about selling or not, you have to ask this question: if my asset has an expected return R, can I find another one with R'>R with transaction costs (shipping, fees, etc.) accounted for? If not, then just keep the set. Already realised return is irrevelant! For exclusives I found that 2-2,5 years is the sweet spot.

Here's the list sroster posted: Set Number Set Name 21002-1 Empire State Building 21012-1 Sydney Opera House 21005-1 Fallingwater 60000-1 Fire Motorcycle 60006-1 Police ATV 60054-1 Light Repair Truck 60025-1 Grand Prix Truck 60021-1 Cargo Heliplane 4437-1 Police Pursuit 60017-1 Flatbed Truck 60061-1 Airport Fire Truck 60022-1 Cargo Terminal 60045-1 Police Patrol 60056-1 Tow Truck 60020-1 Cargo Truck 60008-1 Museum Break-in 60058-1 SUV with Watercraft 41050-1 Ariel

There will always be "new blood" in any endeavor involving money (or fame). In my former "hobby" life, I was a writer. I guess I "am" a writer because one never really quits and I have several stories forthcoming. I wrote for nearly a year before being paid for a story, and only $.01 a word at that--"semi-pro" rates. It took three years of 2-4 hours a day in the writing game, every day, to publish my first book with a small press... one which actually paid me for my work. After six years, I sold my third professional rate story and qualified as an active member of the Horror Writers Association, a long-time goal. What's my point? What does this have to do with LEGO? Everything takes time. The game often goes to the resilient--those willing to keep working even when everything looks bleak. I know this: I've made more in LEGO the last six months than the first six years of writing AND I'm having more fun doing it.

One thing I forget to add is one thing that appears to have worked strongly against resellers is the lack of discounting on most lego this holiday season. MSRP = no resellers purchasing = product on shelves = no need to purchase from resellers. It has worked amazing well.

Leon C. Megginson (1960s LSU professor summarized Darwin's Origin of Species) said it best...

OK. I just went to a Legoland Discovery Center that is not my home turf (visiting the parents) and saw some crazy stuff. They have put little signs up all around the store advertising what sets are retiring at the end of 2014. I'm not sure if this is just pure speculation by them or official from lists or maybe it just means they can't order them anymore? No signs for exclusives, they were up per section (ie, Friends, City, Superhero, Star Wars, etc). I'm terrible at knowing set numbers so here goes (maybe no surprises I dunno): Lego Architecture being discontinued in 2014: 21002, 21012, 21005 - looks like ESB, SOH and Falling water Lego city: 60000, 60006, 60054, 60025, 60021, 4437, 60017, 60061, 60022, 60045, 60056, 60020, 60008, 60058 Disney Princess: 41050, 41051, 41052 so BOTH Ariels? and Merinda's going bye bye too according to this legoland Lego Friends: 41000, 41031, 41007, 41027, 41013, 41008, 41028, 41004, 41005, 41029, 41006, 3315 Superheroes: 76002, 76001, 76003, 76000, 6862, 6860, 76009 Creator: 31013, 31005, 31006, 31004, 31007, 7346, 31002, 31008, 31011, 31003, 31009, 31012 Star Wars: 75001, 75022, 75004, 75019, 75000, 75003, 9493, 75021, 75015, 75016, 75005, 75020, 75002, 75017, 75018 I got pics, just too lazy to put them up now. I didn't get the pics of ninjago or chima because I felt like they were wondering why I was taking all these pics heh. Paranoia. Anyone seen signs like this before? Literally, signs of retirement. Here's one pic:

My experience is that I get as many or more sales after Christmas (people using up the gift cards and cash they got) as before. Before Christmas it's mostly moms and dads buying for kids, after Christmas is when the collectors spend (just my experience). So, I wouldn't despair yet

I feel like I've read this conversation before...

For you Investors starting next year I would buy a Tumbler when ever you can, I have 5 now and will be buying one or two at least every month or so, this way when the Retiring panic buying starts I should have 20-30 now most will wait and wait and again miss the boat.

$59.98 second one for half price. Two for under $100. Enjoy.

We should start a new thread in January for all the Amazon sellers titled "What set did someone return to your store today?"

I don't have any of those items listed currently, but I would guess that you're battling against dozens of other relatively new sellers who are also in the same position as you, expecting to unload all the same exact sets that everyone else was grabbing last year with the plan to sell this year. Many of them are probably willing to accept a slim margin or even a loss, so you're going to have a tough time selling them at a good price. Additionally, other than the Mixels and Creator houses, those sets were not really highly desired when they were in stores last year, so it will probably be a couple more years before some new people come along and want some of those sets for their collection. Again, I haven't checked the market for any of those sets.

Today's haul Really good price for the Village Bakery, especially for being in one of the more expensive Lego counties (Sweden) at around $65, same price for the Ninjago 9450. Plus 2 hours of my time on buses and trains. Yes I should get a car. The Lego Serious play is not for investment, but I am really interested in the concept and using Lego in business. 10244 Mixer and 10235 Winter scene is from LEGO Shop at Home so bought during 5% Black friday weekend, plus 15% off all toy stores promo from my credit card, and the free 40107's of course.

IMO... The beetle is not a breathtaking set... choppy-looking. Certainly cool, and very unique, and very iconic. But sort of "clunky". Yet it continues to increase in value. It is a VW, after all. Its value will increase on that factor alone. The van is a true head-turner. If you've seen one built, the display factor is through the roof. This set doesn't get just the iconic draw of being a VW, but also the draw of looking unbelievably cool when assembled. Much more so- again IMO- than the Beetle. My personal investment strategy is long-term holding of sets that will not go "out of date". Whenever the van actually does go, I can't think of a currently available set that is a safer play for the long-term hold. I mean, very long-term hold, When the hype is long over, when other fellow sellers have unloaded their inventory, this set will be extremely valuable. We have all hoarded it well, and it has sold phenomenally. But in the distant future there will be a time when the hoarded quantities have been (mostly) sold off and are long gone. When this set does become TRULY scarce- which, again, will take a very long time- the value will explode. My personal goal is to acquire my targeted number of the van, then simply "forget" I have them. My inventory is shelved in a storage unit. My VW van acquisitions are at the very back to remind me of this.

My plan was to use this holiday season selling frenzy to decrease my stack. I sold quite a few sets but my stack has become even bigger than before. Well... what can you do?

And a horn

Because the minifigs are still bad@$$ and it's 50% off MSRP. Who knows how long it will take but this WILL be profitable!

I hope that you're right, but I think that things are going to continue getting more challenging as the years go by. As the overall base of capital spent on Lego for resale on the secondary market increases and as more resellers bet more money on more sets, the more saturated that market will be and the more difficult it will be to find sets with runaway secondary market prices. On some of my listings this year, I'm competing with sellers who have 500-600 copies of the set to sell. Needless to say, those aren't runaway winners. And for those of you who think that this dynamic only applies to those of us who sell cheaper sets within a year of EOL and, consequently, doesn't apply to those who are stocking up on the large exclusives to sell 3-5 years down the road, I can say with great certainty that it will work its way up to your level on the food chain before long. Just looking at my own inventory, I am holding on to 10x the number of exclusive sets that I was two years ago and I'm not all that big of a reseller...I can't imagine how many more the real big dogs are holding onto now than they were in previous years.

Unless I had unlimited access to as many of this set as I wanted at MSRP, I would struggle with "flipping" a single one.

I imagine that most people who are having a great year have also been doing this for over 2 years. They have the right inventory and experience to make their inventory competitive as profitable prices. I personally continue my downsizing and am loving this year, which is also my 3rd. My only regret is not having the space to fully feast on the smorgasbord of retiring exclusives. This could very well be the end of the modern day gravy train. I would be frustrated and demoralized if I was a newer investor trying to grind out a profit this season.

Knock on wood my Amazon sales during Christmas have resulted in very few returns in the past. I'd venture to guess it is because often they are sent as gifts directly to the recipient. (No buyers remorse or realizing they paid to much) My return rate during the holidays is definitely lower than the rest of the year, and FBA sales are returned even less than seller fulfilled. Edit: To back this up: I sold 710 toys on Amazon from Dec 1 to Dec 31st last year. From Dec 28th to Feb 8th I had 8 toys returned.

I think one issue is setting what your limit is for each set when it comes to $$$ and space. I know I set goals, but it's still soooo hard to not grab a few more during the frenzy when you see the price instantly going 50% or 100% over retail. What do you do with these? I keep telling myself to flip them, but it's all so hard to let go when you think they might double again a year from purchase. I know folks sometimes still scramble to get one or two of these exclusives at the end. I've been lucky thus far and have bought early to feel comfortable about not missing out and then just stockpiling more over time.

This is the point with all of these exclusives. If a person is trying to micromanage retirement dates, they are missing the opportunity to acquire sets before the hoard devours them. I know many will tell me about limited space and money, but some of these sets perform so well after EOL, it pays to be safe and buy them before you are monitoring the Stock Tracker Update Page all day. Toy around timing EOL with a $20 Batman set. Don't mess around with a R2-D2 or AA.

I don't think it really matters how many of these you or anyone else are holding, you won't be disappointed.

I passed on these at 20% off and I would not buy any more at retail price either - I think the market is saturated, production has gone on too long and money is better invested elsewhere. If it had retired a year ago things would have been so different.....

Holy schnikes the last two days have been really good to me, tonight I got the burrow (4840) and it's 100% complete with the box, manuals etc for $50 shipped, hogwarts express (4841) that is 100% complete with the box, manuals etc for $60 shipped, a 100% complete Hagrids hut (4738) for $25 shipped and finally the forbidden forest (4865) for $5 shipped and they were all from the same seller!

My opinion only but if you want 70+% in 12 months or less is doesn't get any simpler than snapping up 10235 winter village. my opinion yea, but do some research on ALL of the other winter village sets. Just say'******. Easier money perhaps. Good for next holiday season indeed. Mini carousel, little carny booths, lots of figs (con: torsos not exclusive)

Oh, she's totally on board with the Mixels. Its everything that isn't a Mixel that she's skeptical on (at first).

You would have thought that she would have figured out that you're a master LEGO reseller after the Mixel incident.

You're the reason I picked these up. I went to two different TRUs on Saturday. Signed up for the CC, plus had the 10% off day, plus the 10% coupon from the website. That got them down to $90 for me. I cleaned out the first TRU (3 of them) and the second TRU was sold out. The wife was skeptical at first. But I can never resist free money. I installed the eBay app on her phone just so she can share my joy when these sell. (She always seems to be less skeptical after the first sale).

Thanks, I might go ahead and flip mine. I bought mine last Thursday, but didn't get there until noon or so. They had 3 on Wednesday, but only one left by the time I got there. Flipped it quick in a few hours. Pretty amazing return if you can get them for around $100. They won't even be worth that much a year after retirement.

You and I have a very different definition of funny. Do you think THIS is funny: Do you?! Look at him...fingers both stuck, the harder he pulls, the worse it gets...this is no laughing matter but you're just giggling away at this poor man's conundrum, aren't you?

Like Ed said, I am just cleaning up, moved it to it's production server. Getting rid of all the garbage test data and accounts. Trying to fill in the blanks and format all the BS pages like privacy policy, etc. Later today I may write up some details on how the classifieds will be different. I broke away from the conventional Theme/Category setup to allow it to grow on it's own and not constrain it to be any certain way. Anything LEGO related can be posted. If you have LEGO toilet paper, you can post it and tag it that way and it will be able to be found. LEGO displays, books, posters, etc. It is not just going to be broken down by theme, set number, etc. I look at it like a classifieds or a flea market or something. I will go into more details on this later. The one thing we did choose to go with is that we will be using Paypal Adaptive payment checkout. Buyers will be able to purchase from up to 9 different vendors at one time (Brick classifieds is actually the 10th vendor once a fee % is factored in). All will be paid at one time in one shot. There will be no billing. Ed and I will not be hunting down people for lack of payment, etc. Once your items sells, a fee will be collected and everyone is happy. Again, I will get into more details on this later, i need to leave for work now woohoo!!

Ummm what u be smoking son? :)

If you missed it in another thread, here is my war story knowledge I learned flipping polybags (the other seller is the master and I'm the padawan, but I am learning) If you are selling multiples of the same item (RR poly) you can do the following: Set your preferences so that you can quantity remain at zero (with selling set price using good till cancelled option). You can then sell at a lower than you want price 2 or 3 sales, this will get you on the radar and get people following your auction. You then can raise your price to where you want it to be and it will still show that you have sold 2 or 3 (but doesn't show lower price). You are now down showing "last one" because you only listed a handful. People use their panic and buy your last one at that price. Once it sells, just revise auction to quantity of 1 and you are once gain selling your "last one" This only works on good till cancelled auctions and only if you change your setting to allow it Hope that helps someone here Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Brickpicker mobile app

How can you miss it? It's reposted about every two months.

LOL " 10214-1: Tower Bridge changed prices from 239.97 to Free @ Walmart.com (1 minute ago Price Change) " I wish...

I bet we'll see a few more big sets hit the happy trail at this time next year as well.

Sorry, it just had to be done ....at least once anyway. :P

Thank you ChristopherJB for the sharing, grab 2. Yes this set is a dud for investing, it can be easily told by not being able to sold out that TRU seems always list it on 40% off sale. But for me it is still a beautiful set, and my children will be very happy to have it added to their play list. Thanks again.

Got 2 at real.de last week, 35

^ true. i think he's saying he has the time though because it would take a while to get interest from the bank. he would make way way more in lego than in a bank and either way his money is tied up. even if he used 8k of the 15, that's a lot of money for lego. i wish i could do that. smart buys like he's already done and he's golden.

Outatime... love your post, and glad to share my perspective for your consideration. A lot of folks make a LOT of money here flipping, parting out, etc... I share your exact situation... a reasonable amount of investment capital to start with, and the position to be able to sit on an inventory for some time. That being said, you are making outstanding moves for starting. The fact is, there will ALWAYS be a "hot list" of large exclusives that are in their EOL death-throes or very, very near it. You have put your money into them and it will pay off. Based on the fact that you have ten RI's, I assume you live in either NY, Florida, or California if you are state-side. Some of us Cali folks have easily been able to acquire 20+ of this set based on the enormous advantage we have of Lego Shop exposure. I am with Macandre on Tumbler acquisitions being early, unless your plan is to "flip" them for cash around the Holidays. Otherwise, the Tumbler will be tying up your investment capital and shelf space for some time. When it DOES begin to show signs of retiring, all of us will be acquiring as much of this set as possible. But even as an early acquisition set, there is some time to wait before moving it into that phase. The simplest formula for Lego investing I have found is: A) Lego Exclusives, being... as close to retirement as possible, and C) being as costly as possible. Any acquisitions of GE, TH, HH, R2, AA, SSD are obvious smart investments at this point. For your next wave of investing, I would read the forum threads for the following sets and seriously consider: Pet Shop Tower Bridge MORE Deloreans Tower of Orthanc (read the thread on Orthanc from beginning to end- a lot of folks do not understand the investment potential of this set, which several of us rank as extremely valuable) There is some fun and money to be had at the more cost-efficient end, too. Rocket Raccooon from Toys'R'Us for example. And if you read AlpineMaps blog on Mixels, and follow what he has done with them, there's serious money to be made their too. Welcome to the board.

I think this might be the latest (and funniest) way that lego has come up with to eff with investors.

Since what I posted i have gotten 10 emails telling me to let people sell them cheap as it will be more for us to sell and make more money, one email said he sold most of his HH and now he is sorry, and another email from a guy that sold 2 SSD so he will have money to go after the clearance stuff after Christmas, for selling Lego for 14 years most of the people I have known regret buying the wrong sets and the main thing they regret is "Selling there stuff way way to early" Now like I said if you need the money well thats different, but people should not be spending hundreds and thousands of dollars using Rent,Car payments, Food,etc. Ed

Man o man that Wizard, King and Egyptian warrior..... AWESOME! Samurai warrior girl also looks cool, love her armor and colors!

Orc- I think you are my favorite poster, and I say that very sincerely. When everyone else is rushing and bustling over EOL sets and the "big" exclusives, you continue to give extraordinary perspective and information on the entire scope of what TLG is producing. Seriously, thank you. Your posts remind me that it's nice to step back on occasion and appreciate everything Lego is doing. I enjoy making cash here... but greatly admire TLG as a company, and I think you contribute more to the board regarding the entire spectrum of what Lego is currently offering than any other poster. Thank you.

Yes. They bought two first nights at 100 and a farm at 90

I got most of mine in November 2012. A bit early, but man I wish I bought more.