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I just wrapped up another Hobbit set. My favorite part of this set is that two sections of the castle explode.

Based on the writing style, Trekgate is being assimilated to the emazers collective.

You exchanged perfectly good money for a couple of plastic bricks in a cardboard box, in the hope to exchange that back, but for more money.

That's how the Americans play football, the rest of the world adopt tactics

Better believe it. 28 unnumbered bags with bags inside of those bags...still I would not trade the experience for anything. IF you build it(and I recommend you do) separate all the pieces by color as well as flat vs regular pieces. Also build both towers simultaneously. It will help out as well as looks pretty cool as you slowely complete the project. Also do this when you are done (add a bat signal as well!)

What did I say? Is this set out of stock? Jeesssuss. Just trying to help a member. I have always told members that if they want a set, pull the trigger. With the Double VIP points and a quality promo, now is the time to buy this set.

Target 2x Town Hall order arrived today. Expecting the factory LEGO box and seeing an oversized Target box with collapsed sides was disappointing. I open the box, remove a TH, very minor damage to the top, not bad, then what the hell is that? It's a Tower Bridge. I suppose I should be happy getting a set worth $40 more, but that set was never on my radar.

so is Ed Mack the new lego investing deep throat of bricks? who said anything about "insider info" ha that's it. i'm gonna start my own lego speculation web site named, "deep brick" and ed mack will be my single "man on the inside".

All I originally posted was..."Maybe the Town Hall retiring had nothing to do with sales." Then people started talking about Oz, fat men and Hamlet. Go figure.

This is a tough consideration still because that 5% is all profit in reality. Its not affected by COGS (other than offering the returns). Last year my fees were about 3500$ for all of November, dec, Jan. 5% of that is $175... ... ... Lol I can't say any of this with a straight face. No way in hell I am doing extended returns.

"Chaos", Town Hall retiring out or order, "Big changes for some"... Maybe LEGO has just decided to retire their products in an unpredictable order. The modulars somehow are/were a symbol for retiring in order - what came first, went first and nothing newer before the older ones. TH is the first modular to break with that rule. And so maybe LEGO is going to apply the "chaotic retirement" rule to its whole line of exclusives. Why? One main reason could be to scare off resellers who were able to buy close to EOL because retirements dates were predictable enough to wait until the end - resulting in mass buying and other logistically inconvenient events for LEGO. "Some", in Eds words, could be the ones who only stocked up close to EOL. The others would then be those who started buying early enough to never be caught without any of the set(s) they wanted. The consequence for LEGO would be that the buying will be more balanced over the entire line of sets - not primarily the older ones. The biggest effect of this might be that all the small time investors with very limited storing space will turn away from investing because they never know when their stock will start to gain value. The big players with sufficient money and space will stay where they are. I guess this is just a first strategy LEGO applies, if this doesnt work they will come up with something else. But it will not be re-releasing sets. This woul be totally against their policy of keeping their portfolio fresh.

Yes, our future is in Chima and Duplo.

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Bring on 15 more pages of guessing

Well, I can conclude for myself 2 possible scenarios: 1. The complete modular line will vanish or 2. Modulars are coming back, pain in the ass for investors. Or we will live and invest in the golden age of Lego, or we get screwed :-P

Here was my last build. It was a challenge but in the end it was worth it

Lego hunting is so much fun, even when I miss the deals by minutes. So exciting. Congrats to those who got in on the deals, but I'm hoping that next time I get lucky too

When people start undercutting on eBay and it drives prices down. Keep the prices up people!

Do me a favor. Bookmark this post and come back to it in 2 years when you start selling those TH, PS, GE, etc on eBay or any other online venues.

Here is a graph I made for myself. The 12/31/14 end dates aren't actual, that is just what I plug into current sets.

FINALLY! In for 4 (1, then back for 3). Hopefully won't be dinged up. It's ironic, was refreshing all day at work. Had all info ready. Then I when it was actually available, I was on my phone and had to re enter all my info, all while getting a plate for supper! Was for sure it would poof while I did that. Crossing my fingers on good packaging!

Probably SSDs

Target is very bad at shipping nowadays. It is even worse than WM. You get chance of getting lego boxes if you order in pair from WM. From target, you are destined to get a huge super sized but weak box.

1. Rumor 2. ZOMG FREAK OUT PANIC BUY BUY BUY HOLY SH*T EVERYTHING IS RETIRING GAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHH 3. See it's out of stock so it is obviously retiring. 4. New batch BUY BUY BUY!!!!!!!! 5. See it's out of stock so it is obviously retiring. 6. Repeat for 1-12 months until it actually retires. 7. See I told you it was retiring!!

I haven't read this whole thread, but it seems like everyone is speculating that TLG may be doing away with AFOL sets altogether simply because TH is retiring before PS...if that is the gist of the past however many pages of this thread, that has to rank up there with one of the dumbest things that I've ever seen speculated about on this board. TH retiring before PS only means one thing...TH is retiring before PS.

I want to write in italic. What with all that "Oz" stuff and speculations ? Ed also quoted Macbeth. (man... does it mean... yeah, the new modular will be an opera !)

Epic indeed. HIGHLY entertaining. I love the Red Cross Founding Geezer Troll style (no disrespect, naturally)... Throw us those bones... watch us ignore them or run and fetch... see if we chew or bury them. Some are meaty and delicious, others sprinkled with pepper just because it's hilarious to see the reactions. Certain dogs don't like being played with, some beg constantly for treats. A few are just mean and have to be... dealt with. Can we rename this place "Brick Pound"?? lol On a more serious note, I believe the concept of much more unpredictable EOL dates has great merit, all things considered...

This thread has been EPIC. I am mainly a collector and thus far only invested in a handful of sets and poly bags. Earlier this month based on this thread I was fortunate enough to pickup a Town Hall when amazon released their stock that Monday morning. Based on what I am reading here I am going to follow the advice I keep reading over and over again which is not to wait too long for sets that I want. The modulars are my new addiction - I bought GE at the end of sept and both TH and PS this month and have decided there is no reason to wait on purchasing the PC and PR for my own collection in the very near future. I also thought the Fairground Mixer was an amazing set and I would be thrilled if LEGO decided to replace the modular theme with a carnival theme. The mixer is a $150 set which is the same price point as the modulars if they are intending to keep sets in that price and piece count area too.

I see some business validity in them stopping AFOL sets. It will cost them some short term income, no doubt. But I bet they are fielding a LOT of complaints from parents about greasy dudes standing in line waiting for stores to open, buying up inventory, and trying to score free sets from their kids. In order to make sure the younger generation are AFOLs in the future, they cut ties with the current generation (who have pumped millions into their coffers) and focus on making future AFOLs (at which time they will release new AFOL sets) and the cycle continues.

My local Costco is clearing out the Lego DW sets they were previously selling for 22.99. I got 75039 and 75041 for $14.97 each. Peterborough location

He has spoken! I feel like Ed is foreshadowing my appearance on an episode of Hoarders, broke and lying in a sea of TH boxes.

Great news. So I believe the math is: Standard fvf .10 TRS fvf .08 TRS fvf (w/ext returns) .076 That's not much of an incentive for me anyway.

I don't think they will ever stop with big sets, there is a market for big lego sets. Lego had this year the best year EVER, and there where never so much big boxes of lego like this year. I'm only interested in 2000+ boxes if they stop making those they will lose a lot of adult lego fans including me! Size Does Matter.

As far as I can tell, here are the "rules" for modern Lego Trains: There will be two motorized play sets in production at any given time: one introductory and one advanced. For the past several iterations the introductory set has always been a passenger train, and the advanced set has always been a cargo train. There is generally one motorizable train in production for AFOL train fans. The most recent of these have been Emerald Night, Maersk Train, Horizon Express. Themed sets may contain a train independent of the above rules. Hogwarts Express, Constitution Train Chase, and Ghost Train are the most recent examples. These will start and end along with the rest of their theme. Accessory sets like train stations and crossings seem to be related at introduction to the "core" introductory and advanced sets, but EOL is harder to predict. For example, 7936 went out EOL unexpectedly. Parts sets like tracks and switches seem to be effectively immortal. For Duplo Trains there are generally three in production at any given time: A basic motorized set with engine, one car, simple track, and a few bricks. Examples: 10507, 5608, 3771. An advanced motorized set with engine, two cars, advanced track, extra play features: Examples: 10508, 5609, 3772 A push train: Examples: 10558,5506,3770 Themed Duplo trains are less common than themed Lego trains, but they do happen. Examples: Toy Story, Thomas

How Ed reacts to his inside info should be very important to anyone buying these.

5, 20, 50, 200, etc... does it matter? he never sells

Obiously, it means that the whole modular line will disappear in favor of a bunch of Star Trek sets. The Town Hall clearly has to make room for a 10,000+ pieces USS Enterprise.

The worst possible interpretation of Ed's comments would be that Lego is revamping the modulars and will come out with updated versions of all of them. You gotta help us out Ed, you started this madness on Town Hall.

As for the HE, I don't see it being retired (sold out) before the end of this year/ beginning of 2015. Why? Because there still are lots of them in the stores and I have the feeling that those bad nasty people who are responsible for the vanishing of HH, GE, TH, SSD, etc. decided to invest in those sets and don't have money or are not yet interested enough to invest into HE. (That's why I think it will stay some longer... it highly depends on the investors though... if I had to decide which set to buy right now with about 100

Is there something wicked that comes the way of other sets as well?

There could be an entire thread devoted to speculation or interpretation of Ed's posts.

Did you eat yoda for breakfast this morning? Is it because an entire new theme?

If we put in numbers GE vs TH at this moment with pessimistic numbers for TH desirability 10 vs 6(but i think it's more) availability 10 vs 4(probably less) So even with only 2 variables you can see that the TH can perform better than GE. Bricklink EU qty GE vs TH 316 vs 87 Bricklink EU on wanted list GE vs TH 458 vs 347

Everybody here has its own theory and that's fine, it's good to have a discussion. Lego investing consists in my opinion mainly out of 2 components: Economics and taste. Everything is subjective, it differs per person. Some investors are more rational and analytic (economics) some buy more on there own and others feeling' about a set (taste). How you combine them is leading to a certain investment strategy, so everybody thinks different about certain sets and how much they will buy of it.

But with your way of thinking nobody will buy a set at 2x MSRP and they did. You don't want a future Cafe Corner or Green Grocer okey so don't buy any. We don't know which CAGR TH will do but if you think about number you will have maybe 1 TH for 30 (EDIT GE SORRY ) hoarded by investisors now. Do you think GE is 30 X much better than TH ...

Biniou, I absolutely love your input in BP with the images every now and then Awesome stuff!