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I'm going to take a few moments to take a page out of my co-worker's book. He is a blunt man, and generally if something is wrong in the office, he sends out an email and copies everyone on it calling out whatever is being done (like not filling the coffee pot) and whoever is doing it. Not the best way to go about things, but results are there. He signs them "Crotchety Old Man" (hes 29) So here is my Crotchety Old man Post: A few things I want to put out there. These are facts IMO (clashes I know) that some people should know. I think people throw around silly numbers and comparisons way too much. You can say "Well we are free to think this - its not hurting anyone!". But it is. there are a lot of new members who listen to a lot of us. Its a responsibility to just be freaking realistic. So here are a few. Others feel free to add Sets aren't going to grow to 5x retail in most cases (99.9%) There certainly are sets that do. But these are insanely far and few between. Throwing out these silly numbers like "200$ next year!" on a 30$ set is silly. The ones that do that are certain cases, like the Zombies which no one knew about and was out 4 months. This stuff about sets growing in insane amounts is starting to get silly. For a lot of the reasons I am going to talk about tomorrow. But I have heard things like : 1500$ by christmas (last year) - 4x4 special edition crawler $800 - for the fire brigade and GE $1500 for the Tower Bridge 300$ by this christmas - Battle of Helms deep These prices are silly. What sets did in the past is relevant, not the telling case. Things are different and changing all the time. You have to be realistic. Will some sets surprise? Yes. But they aren't going to triple, quadruple, quintuple constantly. The market is completely different than it used to be I was certainly not around then. But its clear and obvious things are different. Some are for the better - Lego is as popular as it has ever been. However, the investor market is probably 100x or more congested than it used to be. Are sets going to stop growing? no. But the top values are going to go down. This is why sets aren't quadrupling all the time. Ask someone like Mos_Eisley. There was a time you could store any Star Wars set and chances are it would triple. Not that way now in the least. The market is certainly not dead. Things like the Fire brigade prove that. But its not growing like the old modulars. Lets be real. There is no difference between Flipping and Investing. Flipping is just a short term investment Lets just stop all the arguing over which is better and all this stuff. You know whats the best? Keeping the set for the shortest amount of time while paying attention to maximizing the value proportionally to it. You know what thats called? Being fiscally savy. Flipping/investing... who cares? Pretty much no one knows when a set is retiring More pointed at the people listening, not the people saying it. Don't listen to pretty much anyone that isn't a direct corporate higher up at Lego in terms of set retirements. My rule is this: Did the person say they know that the set is retiring now? If no: Good. If Yes: don't listen to them, they don't know. Investing and especially parting out is difficult A lot of people join this site, get excited, but sets, and then disappear. I have to believe that some of these people bit off more than they can chew, etc. But the reason is a lot of people make things sound too easy. BUY THIS - EASY MONEY! I do this some too, and I have been trying to word things better. Keeping track of all this is tough, and it will only get tougher. As the investor market fills, we wont know how things will work, but profits are going to continue to go down in most cases. You have to be smart, savy, know your history, be able to take care of taxes everything else. Collect as much as you can, invest only after you have done serious thinking about what it means, the time that goes into it, etc. Feel free to ask me. I am not an expert, but I can share my experience. While being very successful, I have had some hiccups and some that could have been serious. Its important to know these before hand. Don't jump into anything. There are 100s of things that are much more important that money, most that you can't buy with it anyway. End (calm) Rant Overall, just build Lego sets people. If you haven't, you need to shutdown your computer, turn off the TV, and enjoy one of the best gifts to our world.

When referring to a set, Don't just type the set #, Add the Name of the set. Crotchety Old Man

Can I add one or two things? Have a plan, and stick to it. Does it have to be a formal business plan? Maybe. Maybe not. That's up to you. But have some sort of plan. Just randomly buying things because you see other people snapping them up isn't a good business plan. Just sit down and figure out how you're going to invest. Exclusives? Modulars? Small sets? A combination of things? It doesn't really matter. Just make sure YOU know what it is. Maybe you want to focus on Star Wars. Or City Sets. Or Chima. Whatever. Invest in what you like You'll have more fun that way. Find the sets and themes that you like. Don't worry about the stuff you don't like. Have a goal Figure out what you're trying to get out of this. Why are you investing/flipping/whatever? What is your end game? Are you strictly trying to invest to make money? If so, how much? What's your ROI? Are you trying to invest to pay for your habit? That's cool too. After trying to figure things out over the last year and a half, I've definitely come to some conclusions. There's tons of different spaces in the investment world. Trying to get your finger into all of them is potentially dangerous. Focus in on the areas you want to be strong in, and you'll have success. My own story - I've dabbled here and there in lots of things. But I've learned what I think will work for me, so I don't dabble nearly as much. There are themes I've picked up in the past that I'm just not going to focus on anymore. There are things I've ignored that I will stop ignoring so much. My primary goal is to pay for my habit. Everything else is icing on the cake.

I do find it a little comical when people add in the the "cost of time" to sell the items. This would most definitely be true for those who rely solely on sales to pay their bills. For most of us, it's a side hobby and we have a full time job. The "cost of time" to sell is only applicable if you would be doing some other money making venture at the same time. If the time you used to sell would otherwise be spent watching tv, going to a ballgame, eating dinner, going on a date, etc. the "cost of time" is actually ZERO.

one important thing to add: Use bold text when giving advice! You may think that standard text is enough to get your point across, but it simply is not as effective. Bold text permeates the mind of your reader and convinces them to believe everything you say. In all seriousness though, this is a great thread. Big thank you to all who have provided tips, I feel there's lots to learn here

Oh thing I would add: Don't go into debt...ever It is easy to get caught up in a buying frenzy especially with the holiday season knocking on our door. There will be tons of daily/weekly deal and before you know you are slammed with a huge CC bill and interest rates will eat you alive. Don't do it . There will always be deals

For fear of throwing this in a different direction, here's my thoughts on another one: TLG isn't out to get you Conspiracy theories make for fun conjecture and great theater, but TLG is not a puppeteer organization pulling the strings of retirement decisions and inventory in an effort to screw with the secondary market. Have they implemented broad policies aimed to curb resale? Sure - we all know about their policies to restrict B&M exclusives to the Lego Store and eliminate discounts on exclusives. But retirement decisions are made well in advance of stock shortages. Sets pop in and out of inventory based on the inventory leveling their warehouses perform routinely. There isn't someone in a Lego lab coat behind a laboratory bench with a mean look on his face mixing fluorescent chemicals to figure out the best recipe to mess with resellers. Similarly, S@H bans occur when a buyer's purchase patterns fall within pre-established "red flag" criteria. You will risk a ban if you exceed purchasing limits, not when the TLG sales manager misses his/her morning coffee. Other than the occasional ban of a VIP member with the same eBay account name, S@H almost always bans people for buying too many exclusives too quickly. A little bit of prudence in timing and quantity of purchases can go a long way to protect your good standing with S@H. Newbies should relax about buying from TLG. Stay within the purchasing the limits, limit your exclusive purchases on S@H, and use Lego Store and S@H to take advantage of the good promos and giveaways, rather than to purchase 40 of one exclusive. Use other the retailers to build your exclusives inventory.

Is this the wrong thread for me to predict the Quinjet will be $100 by Christmas?

I really can't argue with anything you said. I appreciate the post. At times there is a lot of BS flying around on topics that people really don't have any facts on. It makes for good conversation and at times I really enjoy reading it. This is not an easy thing to do at all. It takes a lot of time and capital. I applaud the people like you that sit there and take tons of picture of little minifigs. I don't have that patience. Ed and I just keep buying crap, I really don't know if anything will ever get sold

One seller that we all remember fondly never had any cost to selling and buyers were flocking to the Toys R Us parking lot for his goods.

There is more than enough info on this website to invest in lego successfully. I don't feel bad for anyone that gets in over their head.

They are gonna be sorely disappointed.

Investigative team will be arriving shortly.

People also have no patience these days. It is all about instant money and expectations.

What kind of vegetables should I invest in? Thinking about tomatoes but there's still a while until harvest, what are some good short term growers? My Target clearance dropped parsnips to 30% off + red card, is this a good deal?

It will really depend on the codes.

My "cost of time" when selling a set isn't something i calculate in $s. I have two young kids, a job, plenty of hobbies outside of Lego and a old home that always seems to need a repair or two. It's why I stick mostly to the big sets. My time is valuable, but not always in $s. The one that gets me while we're talking about cost of time is those who drive for hours searching for clearance deals. It seems some people magically glance over that "cost" in terms of time spent and gas dollars spent (I know the thrill of the hunt... but did you spend $50 in gas to save $50 on a set?)... I try to limit my trips to B&M stores - if I'm going out for something important (like food) then sure I'll check the clearance aisle or pop into the Walmart or TRU that is literally next door. Google says I am 2 miles from my nearest WM and TRU stores and I won't make a special trip just to check. (Full Disclosure: To get a set of Simpsons minifigs, I did create excuses to go to the store and go buy a few packs at a time to surprise the family. But hell, I drive a Prius V or a Mini Cooper .. it literally costs me a sub-$1 to get there.) I'm a big fan of ordering online and shipping to my home when I can. So many places offer free shipping when spending a few dollars.

yeah, you need more mother-in-laws...

The new version of this forum is in live beta on their site. I have logged in several times to read feedback and test things. They changed several things including the editor and way the templates and plugins work. I just need to wait until that is released before I will spend any time doing new features on this one. I was working with a dev a few months back to put a button in this editor and you would just type the set number in. It acted just like the image or link buttons in this editor. We were having it show an image of the set, name, number current value, best deal. We will get back to it once we know what the new forum is doing and released.

Very nicely said DNIIM and others in the thread. I'd like to add: Don't Always Follow the Herd Sometimes it is ok to follow the heard, like buying up a few pretty obvious winners like Fire Brigade or 41999. But most of the time, the sets that show (PROVEN WITH DATA!) the largest returns are sets that not many people talk about. I submit 7936 and 3187 as evidence. Branch out and explore unknown gems. Start looking at already retired sets and buy them on the secondary market if they still look ripe for growth, many of them still get great returns. Not only good profit focused decisions but they help you diversify as well and when you sell you don't have to compete with many other sellers.

What if you already have one and you're still here?

I've had enough Internet for today.

Is this your Jerry Maguire moment? Good post. Straight to the point and honest.

I disagree with a majority of this. For one, I don't need a second job, nor want a second job. Could I find one that pays $20/hour, of course I can. But that would be work. Buying and selling from my home is not even close to work. It's actually a stress relief from my real job. As far as being a hobby, it most definitely is. The only thing my investments or flipping does is provide more money to have fun with and scour deals looking for good buys. That is the hobby, and that is the fun part for me. I have a pension, I have a 401k, I have other savings and investments. For me, it's nothing more than disposable time I would probably be wasting somehow else. But, good discussion and a fun topic.

That is a lot of good info. Thank you! I have asked him,but he is no help at all! (He is five months old ) Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

After reading hundreds of thousands of posts(...and that is just The Orc King...LOL) on this and other sites, people need to have more patience. Time is your friend, but many people think week to week, month to month. Many of you already know how I feel about short term flipping...I really don't recommend it. Why? Because as many have mentioned above, flipping sets for many members equates to a minimum wage type of job. Now don't get me wrong, you can make money short term flipping sets, but how much money for the time invested is the real question. There are some exceptional sets at times that can be flipped for a solid profit, but they are the minority. This is also not a knock on small sets. I just bought 20 smallish sets from Amazon and Target two days ago, so I am a believer in small sets. But you need to market small sets properly to get the best bang for your investment buck. Flipping $15 sets one at a time is a waste of time IMO. You are better off coming up with creative combinations of sets(lots) that might entice a buyer, which reduces commissions slightly and saves time on shipping and packaging. Back to my original point, expectations are too high given the time frame in which many work with. LEGO investing is not a 2 or 3 month process. It can take years. People getting involved need to invest money that they "don't need to live off of." If you need to short term flip sets to make rent payments, you will be homeless soon enough. Do some people pay their rents/mortgages off of LEGO reselling...yes, I'm positive there are some that live off of that money, but the vast majority of resellers cannot make enough to support themselves. The exceptions might have a true knack or insight to picking the proper sets or connections to locate cheap products. If you get involved with LEGO investing with eyes wide open and some spare cash, space and time, you can make some decent money. Otherwise, it's a a lot of work for a little money.

Yesterday I went to the local policestation to apply for a job they had listed on the front door. "Wanted: Bank Robber, Male, caucasian, between 30 and 40 years old, Reward: 15,000 euro". But... my application was denied. Cause I do not own a gun.

And you can get Lego for free on Craigslist that way!

A few things over the past couple days: Amazon WH Pet Shop (Like New)- $126 after using some points eBay Town Hall (New) - $155 after using eBay bucks Target Arctic Batman x2 - $9.98 ea Grand Prix Truck x2 - $12.48 ea Passed on Lego Movie Castle Cavalry @ 50% off---just doesn't seem to move off the shelves TRU Invention MBA x2 - $44.98 ea

I probably passed him thinking he was just some homeless guy spouting nonsense about hotcakes.

If Jeff implemented Shop At Home autoexpansion, i don't think it would be a big deal to add a feature where if you type <10179> or ##10179, forum back end would convert it to a name of a set with a link to a set in BP database.

I would say that a ROI of 20-25% a year is realistic. I usually aim for 35-40% because I buy a lot of bulk lots off CL, and sometimes I find hidden gems, which boosts my overall ROI. When I don't have many bulk lots to sell off, my ROI is usually around 30%. 20-25% is realistic. If you do your research and are smart about your investments, you can increase the ROI.

Yes you would want the herd thinned - but thats not the spirit of this site. You sacrifice a little profitability and leg up in competition and gain invaluable information.

I'll add a couple: When it stops being fun, stop doing it! I think most of us do this in our spare time as a hobby and not as a full time job. It should be fun. If you're spending so much that you're worried about how you're going to pay next months credit card bill, you're not gonna have a good time. If you're stressing because you can't find all the clearance deals people are talking about, you're not gonna have a good time! People burn out, there is always a deal to be had somewhere, sometimes its good to just take a break. Don't buy anything for a while, stay off the forum for a bit, etc. Everyone needs to regroup now and then. This one kind of goes with the above.... You don't need to buy up every deal! I fell into this trap in the beginning, I was buying up everything that came up in the daily deals forum. I learned to take a step back, come up with a plan, and stick to it. Deals come and go, as do the sets themselves, and if you missed something go on to the next thing. People are stressing about getting the last of the GE's, you could just refocus your efforts and dollars on the Pet Shop so you're not scrambling when that set retires next year.

I agree with you on needing to be patient. But I would advise the ones that are being patient and stocking up on lots of sets to give selling a try just to make sure you are up for it. As you know DNIIM I am OCD when it comes to packing my sets and it takes time to do it right and things can still get lost or damaged. I saw one person post that the part out a minor set with the figs on Amazon, some parts on Bricklink, and the rest on EBay. That's just too much work for me to make $3. Too much work that's why I stopped flipping. When your new on this site and looking for opportunities it easy to get caught up in the HD, WVC, VC, FH go get them hoard mentality. The DD thread is great for finding steals but sometimes you have to pass because it is not in your plan like today the TB for $180. It will be hard to compete with all that just got it at $150 as people either don't know how much profit they are, or should I say are not making as you see slimmer margins on eBay due to increased competition. I went thru this with Beanie Babies you have to know when to get out Too much competition that is why I am getting out of investing. We had a major storm here last week and I lost a huge tree. It could have been worse, it could have fell on the house or have been a tornado and the three rooms of lego that I have, a lot of it is junk sets bought on clearance because it was on sale, would all be gone. I haven't decided if I will sell off mostly everything this Xmas season, or make one of those listings on craigslists that look like a too good to be true scam, or just let my sets age, but I will be content to collect and build sets, still looking for the best deals on something that makes me happy Edit stop PMing me NO I am not giving away my Mars Rovers but I do have 19 CCP ;)

I've got a couple more... Use Your Own Best Judgement So many people seem to think the way to easy money is asking for someone else to make their decisions. There is nothing wrong with sharing decisions and asking for opinions, but sometimes it feels like people want instant gratification by letting someone else make their decision. I know... "stay away from those topics if your not interested" but for goodness sakes, it's your money, take care of it like it's your money. Don't Post Just Because You Can There are people on this board who reply to just about anything. Opinions are like ..... everyone has one and they shouldn't always be shared. Being helpful is one thing, but filling the forums with nonsense, is well, nonsense. PS DNIIM - that last one is not directed at you and your 7500 posts. I find your posts to be good reads and not just full of fluff.

GE for $83 after VIP points.

Well put! I personally invest on the side, I`m a collector first and fore-most. Said it before, but to me this is a hobby that I hope will eventually pay for itself. Not a source of income, part of a business, etc. Keep track of everything and as always, pay my share of taxes. Haven`t sold a whole heck of a lot online anyway, so haven`t really had to worry about that department. Still though, this is fun, being a part of the community is fun, and I hope it will continue to be just that. It`s great to have a hobby and a place to discuss it with others who enjoy doing similar things. Honestly I just look at it like that, try to be realistic, while at the same time allowing for a bit of imagination. Thanks everyone for making the community here great, and of course, thanks to Jeff and Ed!

1990 Canadian dollars, gets me every time.

I'm not a huge fan of people spreading mis-information to newbies... but on the other hand, people who are looking for "easy money" are going to fall for something. If it's not "quadruple your investment by Saturday by selling in the TRU parking lot!" here, it'll be a Nigerian prince who wants to send you millions of dollars for the low-low price of a couple thousand, act now and you'll get a set of steak knives. I don't think there's any way to save people who won't do their own research and can't operate a calculator.

What waaaaaaa? I thought that this was easy money? Why else would I get into this when I have no interest in Lego whatsoever? Mars rovers for everyone you feel me!

Pic or it didn't happen.

I'm going to try to shoot for five. Not a lot, compared to what other guys are getting, but I do not want to put all my limited eggs in one basket. I have no doubt that this set will be a huge winner. The AFOL community has been waiting for a revival of classic space ever since it retired, and because AFOLs are the ones who make the secondary LEGO market possible, that will make this set a nice sturdy investment. Being a huge fan of classic space and mechs myself, at least one will be opened to display. If I get enough, I will open a second one, sell the minifigures, and keep the Exo-suit so that both Pete and Yve can both sit in an Exo-suit and the turtle will have another turtle buddy to keep him company.

Just though that if somebody has Star Wars ships on display, it might be kinda neat to have blueprint posters hanging behind them. There is this set of books - ISBN 0756699894, which includes a set of posters. I believe these ones are from there: This is interesting as well, though I am not sure from which book exactly it is.

Those are the nicknames of your capo regimes? Mine are called Silvio and Paulie.

LOL...Put me on the spot why don't cha...(...in my Sarah Palin accent) It's just my opinion and I have no insider info on the Death Star, but it would appear that the days of the 10188 are extremely limited. The Grand Emporium and SSD are all showing similar signs of imminent EOL. Members have stated that the GE is done and my source has indicated that the SSD is a retired set in the US. The 10188 retirement discussion kinda snuck up us, but I would have to say, after looking at the recent activity, that the 10188 might be on its way out as well. Many of us(myself included), tend to look at these retirement dates through a very narrow lens. All three of these sets are basically prime retirement candidates, if you believe in history repeating itself. The constant in stock/out of stock activity, increased Target prices and LEGO S@H observations make me think there is a strong possibility of retirement for all three. We all look at this stuff day to day, week to week, looking for clues. I really don't think LEGO treats these sets in the same manner. They have a basic production plan and go with it until a set is sold out and production ceases. As I(...and the other Ed) always say, you should buy these sets as soon as possible. The 10188 in particular, is a great deal(even at $400), especially if you part sets out. The price per piece and the amount of minifigures makes the set a superb investment...at any time. If you don't have one now, buy one. If they come back into stock again around Double/Triple VIP points...buy another. The 10188 is a winner, now or later.

I did a quick check of my 6211 instruction manuals, and there should be at least 12 different numbered bags. That is what I found from the instructions, but I'm not sure about the overall count in the set.

I'm doing this to fund my wife's shoe and purse habit. My kids do get some cool LEGO by association though.

If you are looking for a lightbulb that simulates daylight look on the packaging for 6500k. If you go higher eg. 10,000k you'll get a bluer light. Lower than 6500k yields a more red/yellow spectrum. There are LEDs that simulate "daylight" out there and easy to find florescents as well. hope this helps.

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