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"I felt a great disturbance in the Supply vs. Demand curve, as if 26 eBay buyers suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. I fear something terrible has happened."

I think I'm seeing a pattern emerge. These scenarios seem to play out thusly

I received a nice "Thank You" card from Gavin's family today. I might try to scan it later and post it here.

Classy. I need to try that when I buy stuff!

My guess is that it will sell out very quickly after it's release, giving some people time to flip them. I also see a shortage around Christmas which would be another time to flip them. I really hopes this happens, because I'm buy at least a few of these sets when they come out.

exactly. the force is strong with Emazers, you should know that dark lord of TRU manager jedi mindtricks. you will override this 20% off code. i will overirde this 20% off code. you will accept this made up number as $10 off 50. i will accept this made up number as $10 off 50. you will ignore hot price status. i will ignore hot price status. thank you come again. thank you come again.

I'm happy to say that we are having a yard sale this morning and we have absolutely zero Lego for sale. Sent from my iPod touch using Brickpicker

- DINNER'S READY ! - I'M COMING !

So the lady at customer service said they would probably get to it the next business day, so early next week after the holiday. So you can imagine my surprise when I received an email 48 minutes later saying they will refund me and another one an hour after that stating my refund is complete. Looks like the Brickpicker partnered with the right website. Buy with confidence.

Hi, yes you have the right idea. As long as you have communication with the buyer. Refund in the same method you received, then put in request to cancel transaction. Then just wait for FedEx refund.

Just been into a few WH Smith stores in London today. I am sure everybody already knew about their recent promo vouchers where you get

No More Monkeys - here is my wild guess - In March 2013, they decided to build the plant in China which is supposed to come online in 2016. In their Denmark production and Mexico assembly? (not really sure what they do in Mexico just guessing), they are at a maximum on product output they can produce. They are doing all they can and holding on to keep active all they can, diverting larger older sets to internet only sales as I mentioned in my theory. The Fire Brigade in order to bring on the Cinema Palace and Parisian had to go, they were not close enough to line expansions or China coming online when they made that decision. However they don't want to let any star wars or the GE EOL if they can help it, because, while the China plant's initial purpose is for that global region production, they may announce - speculating - (which could be true) that demand is so heavy for Lego as their sales grow, that they are adding plant expansions both in Denmark and China (even as it is just coming online) and that since Denmark is growing too, that their China plant will be growing and will switch from a global regional production facility to a global production facility and then they will ramp it up and it eventually will become on par with Denmark in total output, and those margins from China production will gain them more net profit, while still making plenty off the Denmark production too. With all of this going, all of this growth, and all the millions spent on the Lego dies, they will be able to keep more sets (I mean the sets more than $150 in value) live and not EOL - GE, SSD, and many of them. Switching to having a % of their product in stores and another % (again talking large sets) online for years to come through the retail ordering internet channel. Massive expansion of production, multiple global shipping plants, expansion everywhere and keeping it all alive. Do not get me wrong. I actually don't think this will happen. It just crosses my mind, they have vaulted to the top of the toy business and have great management very focused on growth, expansion and profits. My thoughts are is it impossible for this to happen? I don't think so. Will it happen? Probably not. They could run the point of oversaturing the market so much with live sets no one knows what is available, and very confused. Their comes a point when they have to EOL things. At least I think. But then again I begin to wonder. Again these are thoughts I ponder when I sit back and wonder about wanting more prominent sets to go EOL and they haven't. I think everything will be fine and these possibilities are just theories that will not happen. At least that's my hope and belief.

On R2-D2, PS I stared at the pristine sealed box in my house for a year before I decided to open it up and build it.

I absolutely LOVE the R2-D2 set. It is sitting in my office and I look at it every day. I am probably under a rock to what some think, but I think it is a marvel of design and fun.

A couple of things...The 10188 is not a UCS. Also, the UCS R2-D2 is one of the best engineered LEGO sets ever created in my opinion. For a UCS, which are supposed to be "display" sets, it has many features that enable you to actually play with it, unlike the 10221, 10179, 10030, 10018, 10019 and so on. R2 is going nowhere with the new movies coming out. R2 might not be sexy, but you can depend on him and future profits from his LEGO set. He is one of the few characters that will see action in all the STAR WARS movies from what I hear.

Assume the worst case scenario for investors: TLG keeps all UCS sets live Online @ SaH. What is the advantage? 1. They get (marginally) more sales 2. They squeeze out resellers and take better control of the supply chain What is the downside? 1. They squeeze out the resellers = their best clients 2. They need more production capacity 3. They will need more inventory raising working capital 4. They will need to make sure the offer remains clear & attractive (too much product kills the sale) Good business policy at TLG dictates they will not be able to keep all the UCS and modular stuff Online. It would be bad marketing and in the end less sales. But what they are testing is that saturation point. What is the Max amount of Modulars before there's a drop in sales growth? What is the max number of UCS sets before people shy away from the entire range as collecting them all is too expensive? There's history and proof that TLG needs to remain focused. Last time their offering went all over the place, the group went straight to bankrupcy. I would expect management to continue retire. Just not the most popular sets too soon. regards, J

I only liked it because that's has to be the dumbest attempt at feedback extortion ever. WOW! Sent from my iPod touch using Brickpicker

Literally 4 garbage bags of bricks and plates. Haven't dug into it yet. But for $50, I'm sure I have something good in there. Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

Let me put it to you as simple as I can, without any predictions. Everyone should own a SSD.

It looks like we are heading into uncharted territory regardless. Past history dictates that the SSD would be retiring soon, but all bets are off with these new movies being released. If I was in charge of LEGO, I wouldn't retire the UCS sets right now. Even non-STAR WARS exclusives are getting longer production runs. Why should LEGO stop producing a popular set? Answer is...they probably won't.

Rec'd the following message from a buyer. Classic Feedback Extortion. "If you don't want me to leave a negative feedback please refund me at least $4 dollars back."

Yep, same for me. To me, 20% BN GC is better than 20% off BN coupon because GC takes care of the tax as well. It's 20% after-tax vs before-tax.

Most of us talking about grabbing this set on day 1 want it to build and display, with a slight chance of flipping if it goes OOS.

I always keep 3-4 of every current set in my trunk when I hang out in the TRU parking lot, just in case...

If you are really worried about the box condition you could always take it to a TRU parking lot and sell it for $350-$375 and then use the proceeds to buy a new one in a better box.;)

Hi, I believe compounded interest doesn't always work like how it was described above for 10221. While a set might have a CAGR of 38%, it isn't the same % every year. Past sets have shown us that a 5 years CAGR of 38% broken down annually might be something random like 120%, 50%, 10%, 10%, and 5%. Thus why would people want to own this set in year 5 (and maybe even year 4) purely as an investor? Hi, I believe compounded interest doesn't always work like how it was described above for 10221. While a set might have a CAGR of 38%, it isn't the same % every year. Past sets have shown us that a 5 years CAGR of 38% broken down annually might be something random like 120%, 50%, 10%, 10%, and 5%. Thus why would I want to own this set in year 5 (and maybe even year 3) purely as an investor? If this set does increase to $2k after 4 years, is it worth holding onto it for $100 of extra profit in the 4th yr? Additionally, not sure if 10221 will be a $2k set 4-5 years after retirement. Not many of the existing UCS sets passed the $2k mark for MISB. Not even the huge 10020 ISD from 2002 is $2k. If this set does increase to $2k after 4 years, is it worth holding onto it for $100 of extra profit in the 4th yr? Additionally, not sure if 10221 will be a $2k set 4-5 years after retirement. Not many of the existing UCS sets passed the $2k mark for MISB. Not even the huge 10020 ISD from 2002 is $2k. Sent from an iPhone using the Brickpicker app

I think I'm seeing a pattern emerge. These scenarios seem to play out thusly

Reinvesting short term gains into sets for another round of short term gain (analog of compound interest with high frequency of compounding) is a viable investing strategy as is the long-term hold strategy. We discussed that already in multiple threads (which usually get locked by Ed due to fruitlessness). Let's try to avoid another "what investment strategy is better" discussion - this will only get this thread locked

I think I'd rather walk over fire.

I had a vivid dream last night in which I received simultaneous text messages from my contacts saying that several sets, including the GE, VW, and SC, had just retired. I saw the timestamps of the texts: May 28th. Given the credibility of our other sources, I believe this dream is worthy of sharing. Ignore the vision at your own risk.

Sorry for the delayed response went to sleep. Well we are supposed to promote Raise.com on this site so I will send you a PM Just tell her that you want to take her to some restaurant that is in the area. Keep in mind this advice comes from an old divoriced man but if you grow a set ( I'm joking) I have a 15% coupon for you

I want this Stan Lee fig to be made. The most epic of all of them. http://lego.wikia.com/wiki/Stan_Lee

Today we gave Gavin his new sets and the minifigure shelf. He was so happy to get the Sea Cow and Ewok Village! You could tell by his reaction those were definitely on his wish list :-) The Super Heroes sets were also a big hit! I want to once again say thank you to everyone who helped make this happen. The family was very grateful for this. We talked a little bit about their plans to begin an annual LEGO based fundraiser to keep the spirit alive. I believe this is the start of something very special. I'll keep everyone here updated as the plans develop. Please keep Gavin and his family in your thoughts and prayers.