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Let me first say that this is by no means a knock on this site. I enjoy this site and it provides a lot of great features you can't get anywhere else. The sad news for me though is that the way the site has been taking off over the past year has actually had a big impact on me buying less sets for investment purposes. There are so many posts from people who are amassing substantial quantities of sets I would have easily invested in in the past. Now I know some people are just talk and don't really have what they say, but there are plenty who really do have what they claim. Not only are the huge collections concerning, but the vast amount of sets spread 1-5 at a time across multiple investors adds up quickly to an alarming amount of sets that will have to be unloaded after retirement before really significant gains can be realized. I've said it before, but I think last year's retiring sets will be the last that see really big gains quickly. Yes, there will occasionally be a SE Crawler or The Zombies set that comes along, but those will generally be hard to predict (aside from Crawler situations). In the past, 2-3 years was a pretty standard time frame for a set to reach it's peak after retirement, but I foresee this becoming more like 5-7 with very gradual climbs after a possible initial small jump. With those kinds of holding periods, I just don't see it being as worthwhile anymore. Obviously, there are many ways to make money at this. I've tried all sorts of ways, and I don't think the method I've settled on is viable going forward. Doing small, quick flips just isn't worth the time and effort for me. All the hoarding that's going on combined with the significantly longer shelf lives of sets is creating an environment where sets will have to be held for far too long to make the returns that make it worthwhile for me. I think the risk vs. reward is skewing in the wrong direction. In the past, I have purchased at least 5-20 of every set I wanted for investment, and it was a lot of sets. When I see posts about buying dozens of this set and that, I cringe a little. Those posts actually make me buy less of a set than I normally would. In the past, I would have been all over something like The Orc Forge if I knew it was on its way out. I didn't buy a single additional set during all the hype for the set a month or two ago. Will I regret that? Possibly, but I doubt it. I'm not saying that I'm done buying, collecting, or investing. I will always be a collector. But my days of buying large quantities of everything I want are definitely gone. For investment purposes I'll only be buying quality sets that I can get for at least 30% off, things like BTTF and SE Crawler aside.

The main issue that I see with this is that ability to buy something does not mean everyone has an equal ability to manage inventory, market items, sell items, and process orders. The buying part is really the easy part in all of this. In no way is this a level playing field, and it never will be because of incompetence, laziness, differing skill levels, etc... This is not a slam on anyone specifically, but I would say that based on the listings we see and based on many of the things posted here in the forums and some of the blog articles that a large percentage of would-be investors are somewhat incompetent when it comes to effectively doing all of the activities required to operate profitably in a secondary market. This could be because they just haven't learned how to do it yet, or it could be that they just don't care. As you mentioned quick-flipping, it often gets a bad rap here because people say the time involved isn't worth the return. This is at best short-sighted. While I have no definitive proof, this is evidence to me that the people attempting it haven't really thought through what they're doing. Whenever you have a process that is inconsistent or inefficient, results will be impacted. The only reason I can quick-flip things profitably is because we're following a very well-defined, predictable process that produces predictable results. For example, I don't print shipping labels the way many of you do, I use standard box sizes, I buy boxes in bulk at really low prices, I use automation to manage inventory and create listings, etc... People also have issues with how long it takes to list things, which is yet another indication that people are using ineffective or no automation techniques to speed all of this up. This results in low-quality listings that take people a ton of time to create. Just wait until close to Christmas when we see people whining about hitting item and selling limits on eBay that they don't know exist, or all of the complaints we will see about negative feedback because they didn't take the time to properly package and ship things. You'll see some people drop out of the market after that.

So I see most of you guys agree on having and getting. 1-Tower Bridge 2-haunted house 3-10225 Droid 4-Volkswagen camper, but don't forget the Batman Arkham, Now a good idea is to wait a few more weeks til sept and get a couple more Volkswagen campers and get the free Mini with it, would be a great Combo Ebay sell.And in October get some of the exclusives with the double VIP Points. now don't wait to the last minute to load up on the sets above as big bucks will be made on these sets in 3-5 years, even if you buy 1 or 2 a month. So don't miss out on the thousands you can make, now thats if you have a decent amount of these, not just 1 of each.I am going all out on buying these exclusives with a few other ones. Like i said I would like to be done with all this buying and selling in 5-6 years, So I should have enough money from these sets and a few others to be living on Wall Street. One thing I don't look at is Lego price Guides. My theory is when you are ready to sell check e-bay current auctions, "But the main thing is check Sold items to see what the set was selling for in the last 30 days." Ed

You should also consider the growth in the future interest of Lego (Market Potential). This is all speculation, and that is all it will every be. The more Lego expands and creates new markets, the larger the collector base will be. I keep thinking about an article I read a month ago about a family who spent $100,000 on Beanie Babies, and ended up with nothing but crappy stuffed animals. They actually invested the money from their children's college fund, hoping to double or triple it. I think about that every time I buy a set for investment. Lego has a few major differences, however: 1. We are able to purchase sets as deep discounts, if you know where and how to find them. 2. The bricks themselves have actual physical value. People will always play and use Lego blocks, as something doesn't come along and take its place. Looking at the Lego knockoffs, I don't think that is every going to happen. 3. Lego sets are not priced to sell as collectibles. We can watch for a product and purchase it at normal retail price or below. I do not think any Target, Walmart, or Lego.com will every sell an item at an increase because it is a 'collectable'. We might not be able to get every set or LE set, but those sets will enter the market at a regular retail price. 4. And this is the big one for me: I love playing with Lego sets, and I am 42. My son and daughter love playing with Lego sets, and they are 2 and 10. Lastly, as a former stock market trader (Options), I see the risk inherent in purchasing something and losing money, maybe even everything. To say something is a sure thing and will 100% assuredly make money is the fastest way to going broke. That being said, let me add that I believe the worst vice is advice, and I never give it unless asked. My reasons for collecting and investing in these products are my own, and I question them every time I purchase a set. Right now I only have 20+ sets set aside for investments, so my risk right now is negligible. If I do decide to amass 100+ sets for investment purposes, there will be much research and decision making hours taking up a portion of my time. Right now, I enjoy it because I like Lego sets and I find the whole market interesting and something I want to invest both my time and money to. Here are some quick reads about Market Potential. I see some usefulness in the analogous products, and it is an interesting concept to add to your buying/selling habits. About plants, but has a nice equation: http://plantsforhumanhealth.ncsu.edu/extension/marketready/pdfs-ppt/business_development_files/PDF/estimating_market_potential.pdf Bottom up and top down: http://mpd.me/addressable-m-1/ Market size hypothesis: http://ultralightstartups.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Steve-Blank-Market-Sizing.pdf Another calculation: http://www.marsdd.com/articles/estimating-the-market-size/ Good luck, and thanks for posting your ideas. They made me think a lot more about choices I will have to eventually make.

Oh, I know. The best drug dealers are the ones who have no interest in using the product.

The best investment set is one people never think would be the best investment set...

I've said it before, but I still wish this guy would come back on here and discuss a bit more about what happened to him and review his set purchasing history. I think the cautionary tale he could provide would probably be useful for alot of the less experienced resellers. Seeing as how some people are reacting condescendingly though, it doesn't surprise me if he doesn't want to. I'm not a big believer in faith, spirituality, or the concept that things happen because a "God" or deity wanted them to - but for all we know this guy could be selling this stuff for the price he is because he has a child with a sudden emergent medical condition, he could've been laid off from a well-paying job, stuff happens. The general consensus is that the lot offered isn't worth the time and money investment, and while I agree and would not buy it either, there's probably pretty good reasons for why this guy has to do this, and comments like "he's hiding crappy sets in there to get rid of them lulz" are pretty one-dimensional. I don't see a problem with analyzing the set breakdown and determining which sets are duds, but comments like the quoted above don't contribute to the discussion. One day it could be one of us, forced to sell every set we own in a week because our son or daughter needed a sudden medical procedure that cost in excess of 50 or 100 grand. I doubt every set I've ever bought is going to be a complete winner, so I guess I should prepare for these kinds of comments and every beckon and turn.

No joke. There really are great bargains out there if you look hard enough and be quick. Snooze you lose.

Just saw this. I never received the items because we agreed to cancel the transaction. Once I had paid he told me he had made a mistake by listing the Blockade Runner ,and I was ok with that. Later however, I kept asking for more details and I noticed that both the IS and 10198 were missing most of their respective minifigures and some of the sets as well. I considered keeping them but really decided against it because of college starting soon and not having the time to complete the sets and all that process. I gave him positive feedback because he really was patient with me and overall easy to deal with. I gave him some tips, like including the fact the minfigs seemed to be missing from the sets, disassembling the sets for shipping and some others that I see he did in fact added to the listing. Great that someone here got the deal for the 2nd time lol

Are you insane? Either they don't know what they have or they're trying to scam you (or worse). Jump on it like a flea. But take back-up. That lot would be a dream come true for me. Good luck

That's it. No more LEGO for me, its all Mega Bloks, and Knex. Actually, Mos Eisley, you hit the nail on the head. I have been trying to elude to this point without coming out and saying it but seem to get called a "bubble thread starter" or "chicken little sky is falling" person. I have been doing this too long and have seen too much with other collectible markets. I'm not saying this market will go bust like the others but I will stick to my guns: within a year, 80% of LEGO investor newbies will have moved on to something else. I'm just afraid of the damage to the secondary market that will be done in the mean time.

Anyone who buys without doing their own due diligence deserves whatever outcomes 2 or 3 years down the road. ETA: I think the above line applies not just to buying but life in general

You (Original poster) explain exactly what i ''predicted'' long ago.... Soon (around 6-12 months from now on) we will see smart people faking their buying and make the majority buy something and them doing the exact opposite... Example: Everyone here says this will be great (set number whatever) And the small majority agree of those reliable like emazers and others And that minority buys something else that is overlooked and makes profit and majority suffers low returns. Thats invitable to happen.

They are reading these threads and Fing with us.

I agree with this as well. I am doing mostly fixed-price listings, but some of the smaller lots I have been selling via auction, because I just like to see people bid on things. Even for a $10 auction I still enjoy seeing last minute bids come in. In related news, my wife thinks I'm a huge dork at the moment.

In that case, I'm buying a whole bunch of Downtown Bakeries! Oh, and some Flatbed Trucks too.

I think Emes post is spot on. I agree with the OP that the amount of hoarding on here is concerning, but I also agree that most people will not take the time or effort to strategically plan their selling (I include myself in that category for now, although I am putting the work in to learn more). I also think that a lot of people on here - and I am not knocking anyone - won't have the patience to see the returns either. I laugh at the posts on here where someone is complaining about the performance of a set like Weathertop that is barely retired and that you can still find at retail. The Zombies gave a lot of people the wrong expectation I think... Good discussion though....

I collected the old Kenner Star Wars line in the 70's and 80's. I still have most of my original collection...but on the first days of Ebay I would pick them up at garage sales and sell them for a pretty good profit. After a few years of doing this it started to become common knowledge that people were doing this. I would go to garage sales and people with no idea would be asking astronomical amounts. $20 for a Luke that was about $8 on ebay. "These are worth a lot of money" they would always say. They had NO CLUE. I'd nose around and pick up an Amanaman that they thought was just a random toy for $.50. (He's worth about $80). My point is that some people jump on the bandwagon and don't bother to do the research. They will lose. The smart investors (hopefully me and you) can still do well. We just have to wade through the idiots. Don't be surprised if you see someone that read the USA Today article selling a Prince of Persia lego set for $100 at a garage sale saying "These are worth a lot of money".

Your last sentence says it all. I agree with a lot of what you said. I only buy sets that are clearanced or on sale for investment. I don't have a lot of disposable income to do otherwise. I think it comes down to knowing "which" sets to buy. The sets i do have are going to bring a nice return. Will i get rich off it? Nope. But i will have made enough to fund my collecting for quite a while. I do plan on buying a few sets that aren't clearance priced like the HH just to see how it turns out though. It reminds me of the old vintage Star Wars figures. Those sell for lots of money now. So when they brought back the figure line in '95, everybody was stashing away cases and cases of new figures thinking they could cash in later on. Didn't work that way. What made the original stuff so valuable in the first place is the fact that no one stashed cases away back then. They played with them mostly. So there was a demand for them and very low supply. Now, everything is made in HUGE quantities and since everyone thought the same way, hoarding them in their closet, there is no demand at all. The figures from '95 go for less than half of what they cost. Granted, LEGO has a limited shelf life. But if TLG decides to start re-releasing sets every other year or even making them available longer, like the Death Star, that will take it's toll on investing. The sets announced already for 2014 already show a LOT of repeats. Nearly every set has a battle droid. Woohoo. I'm soo thrilled. I believe it's going to come down to picking and choosing the right sets, otherwise it's possible you may be just wasting your time. I have seen TONS of LotR and Hobbit LEGO at clearance everywhere but i haven't bought any. Apparently, neither is anyone else because every store i've seen them at, the Star Wars and other brands are gone but that stuff continues to sit. Something to think about if you're buying tons of LotR or Hobbit for investment.

Interesting story, and it accounts for a good part of the reason why Lego is just one aspect of my overall investing activity. I will admit though, that Lego is, as of late, the most enjoyable. A tell-tale sign for me the other day was when I randomly came across a scrappers forum and you had guys on there that typically collect scrap metal, lead, and copper piping and the like suddenly talking about lego, saying they can get a certain dollar amount for bulk legos and it's more than they are making from scavenging and reselling metal. That was disturbing, because it meant to me that the cat was out of the bag big time in the respect that now you have not only a big influx of resellers on a site such as this, but you have the common man who cares nothing about lego suddenly buying it because he "knows" that there's money it. To me, that's always been one of the telltale signs that something may be getting too big, when non-collectors have a perception that it's worth money whenever they see it. I'm not suggesting a bubble and by no means am I trying to restart that kind of conversation, but the scrapper thing is something to think about.

Another point to bring up is the Beetle goes for 350-400 sealed, and that is an older release when there were substantially less investors. Now that people know about the potential of the VW cars, a LOT more are jumping on the bandwagon, especially at the $120 price tag. I reckon the VW will top off at 300 in a few years, which is nothing to complain about. I just feel the tower bridge will do better.

Dude your name is awesome. Seriously. I mean, obviously I disagree with it, but I love it. It makes me smile.

Refresh the page ... and breathe

Makes more sense now. Man that would have been a great score with the Blockade runner - sucks that didn't happen. Everything is good then. Still a good listing.

Yep something is wrong, he just bought them...I dont think he even received them yet.

Only one different is it had a Blockade Runner. If he got them, I guess it is not a scam, but if this guy has 2 of all these, there is no way he doesn't know what they are and how much they are worth. Just doesn't sit right with me.

Did fcbarcelona flip them? I dont remember seeing what he bought or for how much.

Yup, I saw that just as it was posted and knew that fcbarcelona already bought it and left positive feedback meaning he received them Scam??

Got a crawler for a family memeber. Told LEGO Shop at Home i'd like to exchange it because the box is smushed. Initially the guy was going to return it, and came back after putting me on hold saying I couldn't return it because there were none left to replace it with.

This is the same guy and same lot FCBarcelona got. Something is fishy here. He used the same pictures. FCbarcelona - did you ever get your lots?

Haha you bought this within 14 minutes after it posted. He was probably like "oh crap I just lost some money". Nice find!

I think it looks pretty good, D. The first two (10212 and 10198) put you in the black by about $100 (assuming figs and instructions are there), and the rest is pure gravy. Nice haul.

Local TRU says the expect 41999 in 2 weeks. I said put me down for 1. Likely they are retards, but I can be hopeful.

I just called Lego and they said they no about the problem, so don't panic, everything is still for sale.

Sold 2 at $450 and kept one to see how they behave long term...

Yes, very true. The cost for "breaking the seals" and having the build experience and a bit of shelf/play time would be $150 in that case (or whatever the gap between the market prices for new and used turns out to be). That's if they sell the used set. I think that way all the time. It's one of the things that keep me from opening up my sealed investment sets. I guess I was thinking about those who bought it for $199 and went home and built it. After walking out of the shop if someone had approached them in the car park and offered $500 for it would they have still taken it home to build and keep? The opportunity cost of keeping a set is the current market price, not the retail or price you paid for it. The 41999 sitting in my closest represents $500 to me, do I want to forgo that $500 and keep it for myself or sell it? Or the 3rd option of opening and building it and taking the loss from new to used. That is the trade off. Probably something that when buying at retail people never thought about. I guess it was hard to predict the extreme nature of the growth we have seen.

Lowest * $89.97 Jan 24, 2013 from amazon.com was this lowest price ...will be on sale again around that price. don't missed it use camelcamelcamel.com

all of you that have not purchased this set will be regretting it. if it does retire soon, the retail lifespan is extremely short (less than 1 yr). Not The Zombies short but short enough in this age where sets usually lasts 2-4 years.

eBay facilitates the transaction, and charges the final value fee on the full value of the transaction. Why would there be anything legal that requires the middleman to only charge for a portion of the value of the full transaction? When this change was made, it was primarily because of people charging $1 for an item and $100 for shipping, thereby largely circumventing eBay fees. Think what you will about eBay and fees, but eBay is a for profit business and they are entitled to charge whatever fee they want for their services. They have shareholders that want a return on their investment. If the buyer picks an item up, then shipping would have been zero, therefore the final value fee on shipping in that case would be $0. We never offer ocal pickup because it's too much trouble, but fvfs are one of the reasons that for every listing we make, shipping costs are bundled into the item price and we offer "free shipping". There are a couple of other reasons as well. My advice to everyone is that you really need to take a look at things and start offering "free shipping". It's way better from a seller perspective.

I don't think Lego will overuse the "retiring soon" label. Did they just remove the Chima sets from the label though?

Wasn't that guy the intern at Toys R Us last year?

Wifey noticed that grandma has a cat. And it became her favorite minifigure EVER! This should be on high demand due to all the CCL's (Crazy Cat Ladies) out there. Also, should be good news for this basket case http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpkPeppDx1k