10232 - Palace Cinema

[dcdfan]

Lego made an announcement on Facebook today that this set will be retiring soon.
Nothing showing on LEGO Shop at Home yet, but likely going by year end.

It's always a good sign when lego feels the need to alert people.

[biking_tiger]

I have two left after unloading a few during a eBay bucks deal.

I'm going to build one and save the other to point and laugh at. 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

33 minutes ago, SageFly said:

Lego made an announcement on Facebook today that this set will be retiring soon.

Nothing showing on LEGO Shop at Home yet, but likely going by year end.

Yes, it's due to retire, but will the lack of Pet Shop performance put people off?

[biking_tiger]

5 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

Yes, it's due to retire, but will the lack of Pet Shop performance put people off?

This thing is already hoarded. Stick a fork in it. 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

1 minute ago, biking_tiger said:

This thing is already hoarded. Stick a fork in it. 

I would, but I don't have one ;-)

[Captain_chaos]

I'm not sure what this lack of Pet Shop performance is. It's been significantly less than a year and it is already up to selling for £160 + on Ebay. That's on course for double RRP in 2 years. What do people expect?  Slow and steady gains is how all the old winners went. 

[Sprocket77]

2 minutes ago, Captain_chaos said:

I'm not sure what this lack of Pet Shop performance is. It's been significantly less than a year and it is already up to selling for £160 + on Ebay. That's on course for double RRP in 2 years. What do people expect?  Slow and steady gains is how all the old winners went. 

 

1 hour ago, TabbyBoy said:

I would, but I don't have one ;-)

Guess which one each of you guys is

[asharerin]

5 hours ago, SageFly said:

Lego made an announcement on Facebook today that this set will be retiring soon.

Nothing showing on LEGO Shop at Home yet, but likely going by year end.

They are desperate. When Amazon, Target and Walmart blow them out we will stock up on a few. Not big money but easy quick money as the modular line always sells. 

[exciter1]

Ugh, the last $150 modular.

[Val-E]

3 hours ago, Captain_chaos said:

I'm not sure what this lack of Pet Shop performance is. It's been significantly less than a year and it is already up to selling for £160 + on Ebay. That's on course for double RRP in 2 years. What do people expect?  Slow and steady gains is how all the old winners went. 

False. The last 3 retired modulars all had instant bumps well above RRP within 3 months of retirement and were double RRP within a year of retirement.

[Deadfraggle]

6 hours ago, SageFly said:

Lego made an announcement on Facebook today that this set will be retiring soon.

Nothing showing on LEGO Shop at Home yet, but likely going by year end.

[Captain_chaos]

2 hours ago, Val-E said:

False. The last 3 retired modulars all had instant bumps well above RRP within 3 months of retirement and were double RRP within a year of retirement.

I said all the old winners, not previous modulars. 10174 is worth over 5 times RRP now, but that happened steadily, not all at once.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

7 hours ago, Sprocket77 said:

 

Guess which one each of you guys is

Niether, just call me a realist ;-)

 

7 hours ago, Captain_chaos said:

I'm not sure what this lack of Pet Shop performance is. It's been significantly less than a year and it is already up to selling for £160 + on Ebay. That's on course for double RRP in 2 years. What do people expect?  Slow and steady gains is how all the old winners went. 

Compared to two of the previous modulars ( Fire Brigade & Grand Emporium), the Pet Shop hasn't performed at all well during the same time frames. Anyway, selling for £160 on eBay could result in a loss after packaging, shipping & fees. Of course, HMRC will demand a chunk of what's leaft leaving you with..... not a lot ;-)

So I can put my money where my mouth is, I'm willing to sell a sealed Pet Shop to any UK BP member at RRP plus actual postage until Xmas. If interested, PM me after 23SEP as I'm going on holiday tomorrow morning.

[Mathew]

I personally like the Palace Cinema better than the Pet Shop.  I know a lot of people like that the Pet Shop can be split up into separate buildings.  But most seem to like the brownstone better than the actual Pet shop building.  It's also a shame that it's the last of the $150 modulars that didn't go crazy on the inside details allowing you to customize more.

[eliminator]

One point to note is that PS was available for 5+ years while the Cinema will just crest 4 years on the shelves when it retires.

Wonder when we will see these at 20% from the Lego Shop? Black Friday?

[Val-E]

9 hours ago, Captain_chaos said:

I said all the old winners, not previous modulars. 10174 is worth over 5 times RRP now, but that happened steadily, not all at once.

Fair enough. However, almost all those old winners are also slowly and steadily losing value since the peak of mid 2015. An Elves dragon or Bionicle will make  more profit than Pet Shop and would have cost much less to buy-in.

Any set that has been more than 4 years on the market and had successful ancestors is likely to be overhoarded and won´t show good growth short mid or long term.

[HandyHand]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

Fair enough. However, almost all those old winners are also slowly and steadily losing value since the peak of mid 2015. An Elves dragon or Bionicle will make  more profit than Pet Shop and would have cost much less to buy-in.

Any set that has been more than 4 years on the market and had successful ancestors is likely to be overhoarded and won´t show good growth short mid or long term.

True. It's a very simple matter of supply vs demand. In the late 2000s and early 2010s (2005-2013 basically) Lego speculation was not widely known yet. There were fewer buyers during a set's production run which also meant Lego produced less numbers of a set. 

When news about the profitability of Lego speculation got out to the public (published articles about "Lego worth more than gold" etc) a big influx of new buyers caused Lego to vastly increase their production. Sets produced between 2014 and now have a much higher number of boxes produced. The increased demand for the older sets made them rise in value to multiple times their original RRP simply because small numbers produced vs high demand does that. But the newer sets have a much higher production number, while the demand has plateaued. And with the increased production by Lego (more different sets, faster refreshes, higher numbers produced) people (the regular buyers) are also developing Lego fatigue, which is reflected in reduced demand. As we've seen in the Lego yearly report about diminishing sales in Europe and the US.

[feed]

It’s the availability of modulars from Lego, that’s an effect on secondary pricing. 

I currently have a BB, PR, GE, DO and a PC on my desk.  It’s all I have room for.  

Lego currently have Asquare, PR, DO, BB, PC available, not to mention Ninjago city and the fishing shop.  People just don’t need to buy a retired modular to have a decent set up.  And there have gotten to be so many, it’s tough to collect them all. Even if you have the budget, space becomes an issue.  A couple of years ago, before BB, DO and Asquare, (and even the simpsons) choice was a little more limited and picking up a retired set or two may have been more desirable. 

PC I’m not sure about, for the casual or limited budget, there are just better options available at retail.    
 

[Brian Briggs]

10 hours ago, eliminator said:

One point to note is that PS was available for 5+ years while the Cinema will just crest 4 years on the shelves when it retires.

Wonder when we will see these at 20% from the Lego Shop? Black Friday?

PC will still have been available for almost 5 years (early 2013 release) when it finally retires at the end of the year, so no big difference to PS. Despite liking the set a lot I don't have high hopes for it after witnessing the performance of PS.

[Furious_george]

8 minutes ago, Brian Briggs said:

PC will still have been available for almost 5 years (early 2013 release) when it finally retires at the end of the year, so no big difference to PS. Despite liking the set a lot I don't have high hopes for it after witnessing the performance of PS.

Dead right on both comments BB.

[Brian Briggs]

3 minutes ago, Furious_george said:

Dead right on both comments BB.

It's just the way it is although there's still the occasional diamond in the rough. Overall the prospects aren't very good but depending on the number of investors in the game and how LEGO manages their product line-up this may change again in the future.

[Val-E]

48 minutes ago, Brian Briggs said:

It's just the way it is although there's still the occasional diamond in the rough. Overall the prospects aren't very good but depending on the number of investors in the game and how LEGO manages their product line-up this may change again in the future.

I stopped buying modulars with PR so you might be right about future changes. Big issue with these sets is the ever expanding range with a new one every year plus a couple of sets that can fit in  a modular city too. That removes the aura the original ones had. Fake copies and longer lives have not helped much either.

We really need a suprise retirement to breathe life into this range for investors but it seems they are doing exactly the opposite by advertisig retirement well ahead of time.

[Brian Briggs]

4 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I stopped buying modulars with PR so you might be right about future changes. Big issue with these sets is the ever expanding range with a new one every year plus a couple of sets that can fit in  a modular city too. That removes the aura the original ones had. Fake copies and longer lives have not helped much either.

We really need a suprise retirement to breathe life into this range for investors but it seems they are doing exactly the opposite by advertisig retirement well ahead of time.

I guess at some point most people give up completing the whole modular series. More choices in the current product range and among still "cheap" retired sets like PS reduce the need to chase older retired sets.

And when the retirement of a set is known months in advance both investors and collectors/AFOLs will get the amount they still need without problem. This will seriously hamper demand afterwards.

[cladner]

looks like the facebook post worked. 

[Val-E]

Better than it did with Batcave for sure.