10232 - Palace Cinema

[vexxet]

I just got 2 PC 05R5 on mine.  they look beat to hell though im kinda pissed.  easily the worst legoshop has ever sent me.

Edited February 19, 2015 by vexxet

[biking_tiger]

I just got 2 PC 05R5 on mine.  they look beat to hell though im kinda pissed.  easily the worst legoshop has ever sent me.

 

That recent, but beat up? Sorry man. Sucks.

[RedBrick1]

Noticed something strange on a few of the boxes I got from LEGO Shop at Home last order. A small cut, not all the way through the box, but about four inches long on the side of it. Anyone else seeing those?

[toycrazedchris]

Noticed something strange on a few of the boxes I got from LEGO Shop at Home last order. A small cut, not all the way through the box, but about four inches long on the side of it. Anyone else seeing those?

 

If it is one of the 2 sides that faces the carton openings, then probably a box cutter that went too deep when they were taking them out of the original shipping carton. I have done it myself, not with Lego yet though.

[JDLego324]

Does anybody speculate that set 10232 Palace Cinema could be retiring in the coming few months or sooner? On the contrary, will PC remain available for another year, or possibly two?

 

A point to consider is whether the availability of set 10218 Pet Shop will outlast that of Palace Cinema.

Please share your views on this topic.

 

Hmmm...  Sounds like a good poll question.  Could a poll be started?

[Val-E]

+1 to poll it and add PR too, just in case.

[makr]

I'm keen to find out why some may suggest Palace Cinema is retiring soon.

 

If you look long enough, you can find claims about everything retiring soon. Substantiated claims? Hardly...

In case of PC, there are only very weak indications so far. It was ocasionally sold out here and there. Nothing unusual, but if you want, you can conclude all kind of things from that.

Add to that how TH went EOL earlier than assumed (showing that early EOL for modulars is precedented), and that TH as well as PC are the 2 modulars designed by Astrid, the indication seems clear. "Coincidence? I don't think so!!!"

 

Look at when modulars retired:

 

CC: 2007 - 2009 (2)

GG: 2008 - 2010 (2)

FB: 2009 - 2013 (4)

GE: 2010 - 2014 (4)

PS: 2011 - >=2015 (>=4)

TH: 2012 - 2014 (2)

PC: 2013 - >=2015 (>=2)

 

So basically, the early modulars retired after 2 years, later modulars (minus TH) after 4. If PC would be another TH case, it would retire some time towards the end of 2015. And PS doesn't have an exceptionally long run so far. As long as it retires this year, it's within the expected range.

[Ciglione]

If you look long enough, you can find claims about everything retiring soon. Substantiated claims? Hardly...

In case of PC, there are only very weak indications so far. It was ocasionally sold out here and there. Nothing unusual, but if you want, you can conclude all kind of things from that.

Add to that how TH went EOL earlier than assumed (showing that early EOL for modulars is precedented), and that TH as well as PC are the 2 modulars designed by Astrid, the indication seems clear. "Coincidence? I don't think so!!!"

 

Look at when modulars retired:

 

CC: 2007 - 2009 (2)

GG: 2008 - 2010 (2)

FB: 2009 - 2013 (4)

GE: 2010 - 2014 (4)

PS: 2011 - >=2015 (>=4)

TH: 2012 - 2014 (2)

PC: 2013 - >=2015 (>=2)

 

So basically, the early modulars retired after 2 years, later modulars (minus TH) after 4. If PC would be another TH case, it would retire some time towards the end of 2015. And PS doesn't have an exceptionally long run so far. As long as it retires this year, it's within the expected range.

 

Thanks for the data. Although I miss Market Street in this. Just to be complete can you add it?

[gregpj]

Thanks for the data. Although I miss Market Street in this. Just to be complete can you add it?

 

As per Brickset..

 

Market Street availability on LEGO Shop at Home:

 

United States 24 Oct 07 - 14 Apr 09

$89.99

United Kingdom 24 Oct 07 - 30 Jun 09

Edited February 19, 2015 by gregpj

[makr]

As per Brickset..

 

Market Street availability on LEGO Shop at Home:

 

United States 24 Oct 07 - 14 Apr 09

$89.99

United Kingdom 24 Oct 07 - 30 Jun 09

[Val-E]

There

[Ciglione]

I tried to look at it in a different way... how many modulars were available in total during a year:

 

2007: 2 (MS CC)

2008: 3 (MS CC GG)

2009: 4 (MS CC GG FB)

2010: 3 (GG FB GE)

2011: 3 (FB GE PS)

2012: 4 (FB GE PS TH)

2013: 5 (FB GE PS TH PC)

2014: 5 (GE PS TH PC PR)

2015: 4 (PS PC PR DO)

 

Hope this helps.

 

 

p.s. Are there any rumours for a new modular coming out in the fall? This would make things even more interesting.

Edited February 19, 2015 by Ciglione

[Val-E]

Yup, I was going to mention that factor too. Perhaps a Greek bank with lots of minifigures standing in line to withdraw Lego money would be appropriate.

Edited February 19, 2015 by valenciaeric

[Neosphinx]

Would be surprised if they would release 2 modulars the same year.

LOL invest in a greek bank

[diablo2112]

Lego IDEAS Natural History Museum is in review, and its a stunning set.  I'm rooting for this to make it as either the 2016 modular, or perhaps a bonus modular later this year.

[Ciglione]

If there will be a new modular this fall (maybe the Natural History Museum... who knows... would be nice). Then I think two older modulars will have to go. I guess it will be PS and PC. Just my theory.

[mscheaf]

So we have had 3 or 4 or 5 modulars available every year since 2008 and a minimum 4 since 2012 and suddenly we will be going down to only two this year?

[Ciglione]

So we have had 3 or 4 or 5 modulars available every year since 2008 and a minimum 4 since 2012 and suddenly we will be going down to only two this year?

 

4 + 1 - 2 = 3

 

Plus... The older box sizes will have disappeared this way.

[cissi]

There

Edited February 19, 2015 by cissi

[Locutus001]

I think I remember seeing one.

 

Here is my own chart. I included all other technically non-modular buildings as well, for example, MS, HH. I think Brickset includes Mini Modulars so I did.

 

So now, makromizer's numbers:

 

 

CC and GG have 2-yr life span. FB and GE have 4-yr life span. So 2-yr rule no longer is the norm. The average is 3 years...

 

Just remember as some more experienced members have pointed out, 2 years are used as a general rule of thumb but not golden rule.

 

Yeah because there only can be ONE golden rule and we all know what that one golden rule is for!

 

[soopaman15]

Data like this is beautiful and probably helps determine the lifespan of sets. Are there any other graphs floating around with exclusive or UCS sets out there? If not, I may start working on them.

[makr]

CC and GG have 2-yr life span. FB and GE have 4-yr life span. So 2-yr rule no longer is the norm. The average is 3 years...

 

Just remember as some more experienced members have pointed out, 2 years are used as a general rule of thumb but not golden rule.

 

More importantly, when we try to make predictions, it's more usefull to look at more recent sets. The current pattern seems to be that modulars have a 4 year run.

Obviously there are several factors that can cause to a diversion. For TH, people here like to speculate that it was a slow seller, was too expensive.

 

Regardless of all that, we mustn't forget that thses vague patterns are merely predictions, not some "law" that TLG has to adhere to. TLG wants to make money. If a particular modular sells well, production capacities might get increased and life span extended. If PS would be an exceptional money maker, it might just as well not retire this year. All those predictions are under the assumption that there are no unconsidered factors having a deciding impact.

 

Regarding PC, I really don't see any indication why it would retire soon. Out of stock happens whenever supply is lower than demand. True, stock will eventually run low after production ceased. But it also happens whenever demand is higher than expected or increasing production capacities isn't economically viable. And for the economy nuts, who believes in 100% smooth supply chains (even vertical) anyway? Since there are sets with 2015 production seals, it's quite unlikely that ceased production is what causes the limited shortage.

 

For those who want to stock up "just in case, not to miss out" go ahead. There's no such thing as an "ideal moment" to start, or at least you won't know when it was until it's too late. But just be aware that you might very well be sitting on a pile of not so small, not so cheap boxes for years before EOL.

Is PS a better investment? Looking at FB, it will perform acceptably, but not exceptionally. Timing wise, it could become another FB or GE, but not another TH (and forget about GG or CC, those were "the old days" of brick investing).

[vexxet]

not to be a stickler or anything, but town hall and haunted house didnt even make it to September in my area or online so its a little bit shorter on the bar for me.

[Val-E]

The original chart was by quarter - the problem is alway whether to take official EOL date or real OOS- SOLD OUT date.

[cissi]

not to be a stickler or anything, but town hall and haunted house didnt even make it to September in my area or online so its a little bit shorter on the bar for me.

Well, the data I used are according to Brickset's US date, since that's where I am in. I think Brickset used LEGO Shop at Home availability, not local. Of course, only pulling all the local info from all the BPers around the world can this be more accurate.

 

On the other hand, I did notice Brickset dates interesting. Of course they don't account for the unavailability during the period and update the end date according to the LAST available date.