10232 - Palace Cinema

[Ciglione]

The simple answer is that many people either doubted that sets like the SSD, TH, R2 and AA would retire, so they never stocked up or gave LEGO an indication that the sets were worthy of production  extension.  Fast forward a year and you have the Red 5 for example, which was discounted numerous times and was basically ignored by resellers, even with the free set promos and discounts.  The Red 5 all of the sudden became a wanted set and there was nothing else close to retiring, so they jumped hard on it...again and again.  It's still hanging around and probably should have retired 6 months ago, but it's still here.  

Exactly...

Also maybe sometimes we mistakenly assume the only brickpickers existing are the ones who post here. But I really would be curious how many inactive members and/or lurkers are around here on the site. People who do the exact same as "us" but never do a single post. Hence they might not even be subscribed here.

 

[fossilrock]

Just look at the most recent example, that was this week.  Palace Cinema came back in stock a week ago, and was quickly sacked when people saw it (word got out fast) and it was gone just as fast. Obviously, that was just the beginning of a good restock, because it was relisted a few days later.  Red 5 goes in stock and on this very site, people that have already ordered and received their allotment (what's the point of having a limit, if lego.com is going to ship more than limit to the same household?), go and blast more orders in, and the thing goes back out of stock again.  Ohh well..

It's called supply and demand.  When there is an increase in demand, they'll keep producing, because they would rather have money in their pocket.  The more this happens, the more likely the prolonging of set retirement will occur.  This sort of activity makes me more and more hesitant to just stop with the investment aspect, and stick to being just one of those "gasp" mere collectors.

[zskid00]

Resellers have been targeting Red 5, but it's been nearly impossible to get from third party retailers and you risk the ban-hammer getting more than 2 from Shop at Home.  Stock at LEGO retail stores has been sparse this year.  Having said that, it just hit the 2 year mark last month so it's not like this one has been around forever.  I would love to know if LEGO has moved these exclusive EOL dates due to high sales numbers.  I can't imagine they were planning on keeping the Death Star in production this long, but that is an exception.

[Ciglione]

Just look at the most recent example, that was this week.  Palace Cinema came back in stock a week ago, and was quickly sacked when people saw it (word got out fast) and it was gone just as fast. Obviously, that was just the beginning of a good restock, because it was relisted a few days later.  Red 5 goes in stock and on this very site, people that have already ordered and received their allotment (what's the point of having a limit, if lego.com is going to ship more than limit to the same household?), go and blast more orders in, and the thing goes back out of stock again.  Ohh well..

It's called supply and demand.  When there is an increase in demand, they'll keep producing, because they would rather have money in their pocket.  The more this happens, the more likely the prolonging of set retirement will occur.  This sort of activity makes me more and more hesitant to just stop with the investment aspect, and stick to being just one of those "gasp" mere collectors.

Yes... so maybe it is better we just skip PS and PC all together. Then we just stay on the side and watch the others go on their face. Then after they stop investing we jump in again and the good old days can start yet again.

[speedsausage]

So, who wants to volunteer to stop buying these so they can go EOL?

I have.

[Brickson]

So, who wants to volunteer to stop buying these so they can go EOL?

Me. I've been done with PC and PS a while. When they start popping in and out like they have, it's not the time to be showing Lego it's in demand, when you're sitting on a bunch of them and want them to retire. 

[MathBuilder]

I have.

Same here. But only because I got my 5. 

[Darth_Raichu]

Exactly...

Also maybe sometimes we mistakenly assume the only brickpickers existing are the ones who post here. But I really would be curious how many inactive members and/or lurkers are around here on the site. People who do the exact same as "us" but never do a single post. Hence they might not even be subscribed here.

 

There are people whose been doing this longer than emazers and with bigger inventory than him, yet never visit BP

[Ed Mack]

Very few people really know the true dynamics of LEGO's production plans, but I'm certain quarterly or even monthly sales of sets play into determining whether or not production is cutback, ramped up or stopped altogether.  There is an original production plan for sets because I have seen examples, but they can change.  By looking at the European stock levels that Huw posts on Brickset, there are not tens of thousands of a a particular set set being sold in a short period of time, so even subtle buying increases by resellers let's say, can have an effect on production plans.  

The Red 5 could also be affected by the ever increasing STAR WARS buzz and this could also be playing a role in regular LEGO fans and collectors buying up what LEGO releases.   The Red 5 was a LEGO loser in the beginning.  It was discounted multiple times and $40-$70 LEGO sets were thrown in multiple promos to unload Red 5 stock.  Now, after major sets have retired recently, it is everyone's darling.  

[Brickson]

There are people whose been doing this longer than emazers and with bigger inventory than him, yet never visit BP

True. But I assume they have some sort of system where they've acquired what they need already. For me there's ratios behind it, like if you have more than 2x the amount you're buying when it's flipping off and on, then it doesn't make sense to buy. So the risk means you should buy at least half of your current holding. I'm sitting on 4 of each. So in order to justify contributing to the risk of a refresh, I'd need to purchase at least 2. Then next time having 6, I'd need to purchase at least 3. Then next time having 9, I'd need to purchase at least 4. That's where it gets stupid, because one should have been doing this before the 1 year mark. At this point, to me it becomes more valuable to focus on the ones that are more widely available.

[speedsausage]

Same here. But only because I got my 5. 

Same. My 1 PC and 1 PS is good enough.

[fossilrock]

Yes... so maybe it is better we just skip PS and PC all together. Then we just stay on the side and watch the others go on their face. Then after they stop investing we jump in again and the good old days can start yet again.

I've seen this same thing happen with numerous star wars lines, the cars diecast line (at one point it was like printing money), movie maniacs, spawn, and many other things over time.  When the demand shifts from end consumers to mostly resellers because they are convinced the dwindling end consumers are going to consume the resold stock that they buy at inflated prices, that's a sign to become skeptical. At this point, it seems the resellers are just creating the added demand of many of these sets.  Granted, there will always be new people that come in and say "wow, I didn't know they made that, I want one", but at that point they might just settle with used complete sets instead of buying new ones at inflated prices..    I definitely wouldn't want to be stuck with a bunch of 199.99 sets, if they aren't going for more than retail 2 to 3 years from now, and that could very much happen with many of these sets.  At that point it's a loss.  Really only the early sets that weren't vastly hoarded, but still have "completionist demand" are going to remain valuable.  All these other sets that are vastly hoarded will never see those aftermarket rise in value.  To some resellers, it could be a loss of thousands, if not tens of thousands if they don't watch what they are doing.  The added demand created by resellers, which creates a new run or two, and then they end up scarfing those up in droves is only going to add more sets to the market, which increases reseller supply.  In the end that craters the aftermarket. 

[Ed Mack]

Yes... so maybe it is better we just skip PS and PC all together. Then we just stay on the side and watch the others go on their face. Then after they stop investing we jump in again and the good old days can start yet again.

Or maybe the PC is doing the "Dance of Death" and you miss out on quickly doubling your money.  Decisions...Decisions...

[Ciglione]

I've seen this same thing happen with numerous star wars lines, the cars diecast line (at one point it was like printing money), movie maniacs, spawn, and many other things over time.  When the demand shifts from end consumers to mostly resellers because they are convinced the dwindling end consumers are going to consume the resold stock that they buy at inflated prices, that's a sign to become skeptical. At this point, it seems the resellers are just creating the added demand of many of these sets.  Granted, there will always be new people that come in and say "wow, I didn't know they made that, I want one", but at that point they might just settle with used complete sets instead of buying new ones at inflated prices..    I definitely wouldn't want to be stuck with a bunch of 199.99 sets, if they aren't going for more than retail 2 to 3 years from now, and that could very much happen with many of these sets.  At that point it's a loss.  Really only the early sets that weren't vastly hoarded, but still have "completionist demand" are going to remain valuable.  All these other sets that are vastly hoarded will never see those aftermarket rise in value.  To some resellers, it could be a loss of thousands, if not tens of thousands if they don't watch what they are doing.  The added demand created by resellers, which creates a new run or two, and then they end up scarfing those up in droves is only going to add more sets to the market, which increases reseller supply.  In the end that craters the aftermarket. 

That is exactly what I see. For example: most TH's on my local craig's list are bought-up by resellers. End-consumers not so often. So what will happen? I dunno. But there has to come an end eventually I suppose. This makes it ever more important not to be greedy. Not to look back sadly if you sold your 7965 MF for $200 and two weeks later the price goes up to $210. You made a very nice result. Be proud and happy. Take your significant other out for dinner, go out to a bar with your friends, pay off your mortgage or debt. Do not overplay your hand. For me, buying 10+ R2's was like going all-in. I will not do that anymore. Eventhough it seems that wasn't a bad move. I am happy with 3 DS's and 3 Sandcrawlers. That's it. Spread the risk.    

[Ciglione]

Or maybe the PC is doing the "Dance of Death" and you miss out on quickly doubling your money.  Decisions...Decisions...

Yes, you might be right about PC. But I only need 3 to reach my minimum quota. But PS... forget about PS.

Edited June 17, 2015 by Ciglione

[Brickson]

I am happy with 3 DS's and 3 Sandcrawlers. That's it. Spread the risk.    

I just want to note what Ciglione is hinting on is a LEGO bubble, and that spreading the risk doesn't mean just buying different sets, it means not going all in on LEGO either. If the LEGO investor/reseller bubble pops, almost of all sets pop. In this regard, I wouldn't be "diversifying" into too many sets. Just the solid ones.

Edited June 17, 2015 by Brickson

[zskid00]

Really only the early sets that weren't vastly hoarded, but still have "completionist demand" are going to remain valuable.  All these other sets that are vastly hoarded will never see those aftermarket rise in value.  

I understand your cautionary tale about past collectible toys and product lines that have had the bubble burst, but others had this same concern last year and exclusive sets that retired within the last 9 months such as HH, GE, R2, and AA are doing just fine.  If you want a high return investment you need to be willing to take on some risk.

Edited June 17, 2015 by zskid00

[Ciglione]

I just want to note what Ciglione is hinting on is a LEGO bubble, and that spreading the risk doesn't mean just buying different sets, it means not going all in on LEGO either. If the LEGO investor/reseller bubble pops, almost of all sets pop. In this regard, I wouldn't be "diversifying" into too many sets. Just the solid ones.

Thanks for the warning. All I am saying is 3 pcs of these sets for me is something I can manage if the bubble pops. For others it can be 1 or 10 pcs. Depends on your financial position. Just do not put your future financial position at risk by buying 20 pcs of something that you cannot afford or accept from yourself to loose.

[Ed Mack]

 Really only the early sets that weren't vastly hoarded, but still have "completionist demand" are going to remain valuable.  

The PC will be stockpiled, but it is a Modular, so when it retires, it will still show very healthy returns at some point because of the need of anal completists like myself to have every Modular.

[Ciglione]

The PC will be stockpiled, but it is a Modular, so when it retires, it will still show very healthy returns at some point because of the need of anal completists like myself to have every Modular.

You do not own a PC yet?

[oneknightr]

The PC will be stockpiled, but it is a Modular, so when it retires, it will still show very healthy returns at some point because of the need of anal completists like myself to have every Modular.

And I would imagine like TH, PC should hopefully be the only theater modular they produce. I mean, TLG won't produce another version of a town hall/city hall and theater, would they? If they did, then we would know for sure that they hate resellers and want to f*ck us over.

[Ed Mack]

You do not own a PC yet?

I own a few...LOL

[JosephMali]

I just bought my first PC and the Lego employee said they would be gone very soon (for what it is worth, I felt the person knew nothing about it). There were three PC and four PS, no DS and TB and one returned Red 5 at the LEGO Store, Christiana Mall. PC code is 23R5

Edited June 17, 2015 by JosephMali

[Val-E]

When has a salesman ever said, "Relax buddy, you have at least another year to get this model"?

We do the same when we sell "LAST ITEM!" to pressure the buyer into taking a snap emotional decision based on fear of missing out.

I am done with buying everything (apart from for my personal collection) until the Autumn as I have too much stockpiled, holidays are coming and nothing retires in summer.

[fossilrock]

When has a salesman ever said, "Relax buddy, you have at least another year to get this model"?

We do the same when we sell "LAST ITEM!" to pressure the buyer into taking a snap emotional decision based on fear of missing out.

I am done with buying everything (apart from for my personal collection) until the Autumn as I have too much stockpiled, holidays are coming and nothing retires in summer.

Its' one thing if the item is rare…  It's another thing altogether when you go on ebay/amazon and see over 100 for resale on a single site, and other sites with that amount of stock too.  At that point, it's not as rare, and hard to obtain as people let on.  Rare to me is when you go on ebay/amazon and theres one or two that you can buy and they have a high price/ lots of people vying for it.  There definitely is a lot of hyperinflation with the current reseller mentality, so that's why a lot of sets can be slow sellers. The actual demand and aftermarket price does not meet with the speculative reseller hopes and dreams.  Do I think that will be the case with these modular buildings?  Not necessarily.  Demand/sales do seem strong with them, but I also think they have become heavily hoarded to the point that might break their resale value immensely.  Same can be said for many other lines and sets.  I don't think the exclusives are as "blue chip" as some here want others to buy into.  In fact, the exclusives might come with greater risk than other lesser valued sets.

Edited June 17, 2015 by fossilrock