inversion Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 Ed started it... I personally don't like the town hall very much. Being so big it seems to represent the good old days of excessive government spending on themselves that our current government seems to enjoy. Seriously, aside from Market Street, it's the bottom of my list. I've only got one set aside and I may dump it sooner than later as it takes a ton of space. Well since the thread is derailed I can comment... The only thing that bothers me in Town Hall are the bulky pillars at the entrance. Waaay too thick. Quote
gregpj Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 On the Tower Bridge??? Haha... Town Hall! It was totally on topic! :) Quote
holleman67 Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 On the Tower Bridge??? Yes! How epic! Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Brickpicker mobile app Quote
diablo2112 Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 (edited) TB is not a modular in the sense that future completists will crave the set. The modulars are very nearly a singular exception in this world being 1) exclusive, routinely retired, and part of a great series, that 2) appeals almost universally to AFOL. Given this, I really think long term buy and hold on ANY modular will reward a patient investor. TB has a few strengths. The 2 best are 1)AFOL appeal with 2) size, both physical and piece count. TB is well hoarded, we'll see mild price escalation on EOL, but nowhere near ET or Carousel level craziness. I have 4 TB in my modest portfolio. If I double within a year of EOL, I'll consider this successful. My own strategy is that when EOL hits, other investors may scramble and push up near term prices. This may be the time to cash. Edited January 18, 2015 by diablo2112 Quote
LegoManiacc Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 I love this set but I'm biased since I always seem to be drawn to any type of bridge whether it's the 5 mile Mackinac Bridge: Or just a foot bridge around a nearby park: I think its biggest downfall is the amount of time it's been out and especially the fact that it's still around after the last wave of retirements giving even more people time to focus on it. I still hope for big things post retirement, but some of the US-based comments here are certainly giving me second thoughts! Quote
Ed Mack Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 The growth of the Fire Brigade concerns me. It actually decreased in value this month after Jeff ran the numbers. Not a good sign for a highly stockpiled set a year after retirement. R2, HH and the Town Hall on the other hand have shown stronger returns. Quote
holleman67 Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 The growth of the Fire Brigade concerns me. It actually decreased in value this month after Jeff ran the numbers. Not a good sign for a highly stockpiled set a year after retirement. R2, HH and the Town Hall on the other hand has shown stronger returns. A large set that is stock piled will plateau when people start seeing the quick returns and start dumping their sets. That's the biggest problem with these largely hoarded sets. Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Brickpicker mobile app Quote
LegoManiacc Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 (edited) The growth of the Fire Brigade concerns me. It actually decreased in value this month after Jeff ran the numbers. Not a good sign for a highly stockpiled set a year after retirement. R2, HH and the Town Hall on the other hand have shown stronger returns. At least a few sets that had been retired a year or so noticeably dropped in price leading up to Christmas. I can't remember many off the top of my head, but JP comes to mind. I assumed a large number of sellers were finally deciding to take their profits all at the same time...I thought that happened every year around Christmas, but maybe not? Will be interesting to see how long it takes FB and sets like Jabba's Palace to come back up (and surpass) their pre-holiday numbers. Edited January 18, 2015 by LegoManiacc Quote
pcaster Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 (edited) FB is almost back up to where it peaked based upon FBA numbers. On 9-8 (the peak) the lowest listing would net $314.97 after fees excluding inbound shipping on an individual selling plan. Today it will net $308.46. Most of the climb back has occurred over the last two weeks - the low was 12-29 at $280.29. Edited January 18, 2015 by pcaster Quote
KShine Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 The growth of the Fire Brigade concerns me. It actually decreased in value this month after Jeff ran the numbers. Not a good sign for a highly stockpiled set a year after retirement. R2, HH and the Town Hall on the other hand have shown stronger returns. There has been a wave of nearly nonstop scam listings on ebay lately (might have been after the last update) - with the FB being one of the prime targets. Are you certain that the numbers are excluding the scam listings? 1 Quote
Ed Mack Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 Pre-Christmas values are the highest of the year traditionally. If the Fire Brigade cannot show an increase in the best month of the year on eBay, that is an issue in my opinion. Quote
Ed Mack Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 There has been a wave of nearly nonstop scam listings on ebay lately (might have been after the last update) - with the FB being one of the prime targets. Are you certain that the numbers are excluding the scam listings?I am not on my computer to check. I will take a look tomorrow. It could be an anomaly. Most of the other large exclusive sets have shown solid growth. This is just one of the sets I keep an eye on. Quote
hxckid88 Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 A large set that is stock piled will plateau when people start seeing the quick returns and start dumping their sets. That's the biggest problem with these largely hoarded sets. Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Brickpicker mobile app Don't lose hope. I sold off my black pearls and qu they platoons at 250-280 for over a year I sold my rock. Few weeks later black pearls go up in value by a hundred bucks. Town hall has grown in value seemingly over night. R2d2 will be a 400 set.... In just may take 4 years from now. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Brickpicker mobile app Quote
nolanfan34 Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 Number of sets in the Brickfolio system. It is not based on dollars. The list is the Top 11-12 sets in order from greatest to least, owned by members. If so, then I would increase the size of grain of salt I would take portfolio numbers with. Not criticizing, just really hard to believe that there are more $150 GE stockpiled than a $20 6862 which has been talked about for a couple of years on this site. The follow up would be to know how many members on here have portfolios, and how many are regularly updated. I certainly don't have accurate figures on here for my own portfolio as I haven't updated it for quite a while. 1 Quote
nolanfan34 Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 And to be clear a statement of "a lot of people have GE" is still certainly valuable. If we had an "update your portfolio drive" or something, I would bet some of the top 10 would change for sure. Of course QFLL's probably don't input what they are holding. (goes back to inventorying to update Brickfolio) Quote
waddamon Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 The growth of the Fire Brigade concerns me. It actually decreased in value this month after Jeff ran the numbers. Not a good sign for a highly stockpiled set a year after retirement. R2, HH and the Town Hall on the other hand have shown stronger returns. i concurr, not only on this one, but many others as well. I think it is the speculative aspect amplified. I'll keep many of my observations to myself or PM, but a growing trend to pay attention to. Quote
brettj666 Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 And to be clear a statement of "a lot of people have GE" is still certainly valuable. If we had an "update your portfolio drive" or something, I would bet some of the top 10 would change for sure. Of course QFLL's probably don't input what they are holding. (goes back to inventorying to update Brickfolio) Isn't there big assumptions like % of people on BP, % of people that use the portfolio and % of people that are honest or keep it up to date. I know I don't update it that often. Maybe in a year Quote
KShine Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 Remember, there is no proof required for the Brickfolio entries (people could submit whatever they want). As mentioned before, many people play around, or use the brickfolios as a testing ground before ever investing their real money. Anyone testing around would likely be submitting the popular choices, which would skew the numbers for those sets even more. Quote
Ciglione Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 I maintain my brickfolio like a monk. Not sure if everyone does that. 3 Quote
Ed Mack Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 There has been a wave of nearly nonstop scam listings on ebay lately (might have been after the last update) - with the FB being one of the prime targets. Are you certain that the numbers are excluding the scam listings? There was one listing that was bad and removed for $260.00. Most are right around $300.00 and legit. Quote
Ed Mack Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 If so, then I would increase the size of grain of salt I would take portfolio numbers with. Not criticizing, just really hard to believe that there are more $150 GE stockpiled than a $20 6862 which has been talked about for a couple of years on this site. The follow up would be to know how many members on here have portfolios, and how many are regularly updated. I certainly don't have accurate figures on here for my own portfolio as I haven't updated it for quite a while. Why? I have 15 GEs and 5 6862s. Not everyone is a believer in Superhero sets. I am not. Because of the Chinese knockoffs, many of these Superhero sets can lose tremendous value. It will be pretty hard to replicate a MISB 10211. Not too hard to replicate the whole DC Comics and Marvel Superheroes minifigure line. They are currently selling for 40 minifigures for $40. Who is going to pay top dollar for a Power Armor Lex set when you can buy the figures for $3? The Brickfolio is not perfect, but all things considered, why would the Batman Arkham Asylum come in at #55 of the Top 100 if people were fudging the data on a large scale? Wouldn't you think people would place a top set like that in their Brickfolio if they were faking it? The list is a nice mix of small and large sets and really does mimic site discussions of sets. Quote
KShine Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 There was one listing that was bad and removed for $260.00. Most are right around $300.00 and legit. Thanks for checking - the wave seems to have mostly begun after the new year. But you might want to keep an eye out for odd results for this and a few other larger sets in next months update. The listings have been for well under 200 (129, 142, etc). It might also turn out that ebay removes some of the transactions (if they become canceled transactions) from the numbers you get. Quote
Ed Mack Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 Remember, there is no proof required for the Brickfolio entries (people could submit whatever they want). As mentioned before, many people play around, or use the brickfolios as a testing ground before ever investing their real money. Anyone testing around would likely be submitting the popular choices, which would skew the numbers for those sets even more. I don't see any older UCS sets on the Top 100. I would think if people mere messing around on a large scale, they would throw some 10179s in their Brickfolio for the Hell of it. Quote
BrickU Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 Way off topic here....Bigger question is why do some odd ball sets last for 5 years & others for 6 months..... It can't be just about the molds & sales right? Does anyone remember if 10-15 years ago it was more consistent on when items retired? Quote
Ed Mack Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 Thanks for checking - the wave seems to have mostly begun after the new year. But you might want to keep an eye out for odd results for this and a few other larger sets in next months update. The listings have been for well under 200 (129, 142, etc). It might also turn out that ebay removes some of the transactions (if they become canceled transactions) from the numbers you get. Outliers are removed. Low listings like that would never get past the filters. Numbers have to be within the range of current values, that is why new sets are sometimes skewed until more listings are aggregated. Quote
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