Ideas #004: 21103 - The Delorean Time Machine

[newbie77]

 

1 hour ago, Phil B said:

Sorry to hammer this, but "bubble" != "Market Correction". What you describe above is an influx of stock which triggers normal demand/supply corrections such as a price drop. Has nothing to do with a bubble, apart from creating less favorable conditions for selling. So net, a market correction. A bubble only happens when resellers start buying from resellers at inflated prices because of a perceived further increase in value down the road, artificially driving the price up. The tell-tale sign of a bubble is _increasing_ prices plus _increasing supply_ (though the latter might not always show, which makes it difficult to differentiate a bubble from a normal appreciation cycle)

then we were in bubbles from the start of LEGO re-selling/investing. 

i buy more from resellers for inflated price all the time.

[Phil B]

2 minutes ago, newbie77 said:

 

then we were in bubbles from the start of LEGO re-selling/investing. 

i buy more from resellers for inflated price all the time.

but do you buy to resell?

[newbie77]

1 hour ago, fossilrock said:

Somehow this set on amazon has gained 100 new sellers since christmas, and prices have also dropped about 30.00 from the peak.  At one point, it was near 110 sellers, and prices were going for about 150.  Now, it's 222 sellers, and prices down to 119.  What gives.. were there really that many people holding this one?  This is kind of a glimpse of what is to come for the future, I think.  Another sign that maybe reselling lego is hitting a bubble.  I'm noticing this trend with some other sets too.  The prophecies of some of the ones "deemed crazy" a year ago, might be ringing the bell of truth.

 

(1) during Nov/Dec time amazon's holiday selling policy disqualifies some of sellers. this is one of potential contributor to this increase since they will be back to sell.

(2) once one see that kind of price jump more inventory will come to market via arbitrage. 

(3) more people will convert to seller { there is a lot of lego purchases that end up in storage than one might think/imagine }

(4) more people are moving their inventory from ebay to amazon 

 

[newbie77]

4 minutes ago, Phil B said:

but do you buy to resell?

all the time re-sell; personal use; enhance portfolio and to make one self grandiose "investment" as well.

[fossilrock]

13 minutes ago, newbie77 said:

(1) during Nov/Dec time amazon's holiday selling policy disqualifies some of sellers. this is one of potential contributor to this increase since they will be back to sell.

(2) once one see that kind of price jump more inventory will come to market via arbitrage. 

(3) more people will convert to seller { there is a lot of lego purchases that end up in storage than one might think/imagine }

(4) more people are moving their inventory from ebay to amazon 

 

I definitely agree with most of that.  However, I believe that the rise in resellers is only a recent phenomenon, about a month or so old.  After the holiday season, I think the numbers went back up to around 125 or something like that.  During the holiday rush, it was heading under a 100.  I sold 2 of mind during the holiday rush, and made some good money on them, to where I can't consider it a loss.  I think I sold them at the 130ish range.

I just think the jump up in the # of resellers is just another sign that there's a lot of people holding seets.  Granted, I could cash out now on this set, and it's still a win.  So my comment is strictly based on GREED!  I want to make 10X on this set, and I WANT IT NOW! 

[Val-E]

Seems to be a market wide trend across all platforms. Quite a few people looking to get out quickly or who have overstretched themselves.

[trekgate502]

Great Scott !

That is it Over Stretched

[newbie77]

9 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

I definitely agree with most of that.  However, I believe that the rise in resellers is only a recent phenomenon, about a month or so old.  After the holiday season, I think the numbers went back up to around 125 or something like that.  During the holiday rush, it was heading under a 100.  I sold 2 of mind during the holiday rush, and made some good money on them, to where I can't consider it a loss.  I think I sold them at the 130ish range.

I just think the jump up in the # of resellers is just another sign that there's a lot of people holding seets.  Granted, I could cash out now on this set, and it's still a win.  So my comment is strictly based on GREED!  I want to make 10X on this set, and I WANT IT NOW! 

really! its interesting that people who want to sell are "GREEDY"? i mean set was retired over a year now.

people have different way of re-selling lego

(a) some buy store for 1-2 years and then sell it

(b) some look @ their inventory every day

(c) some don't sell or say they don't sell ever.

so these folks that are coming out are the one who got alerted that "hey price is already 5X" better sell it before it crashes or "hey need to sell the winner" to "cover losses in LOSERS" 

[fossilrock]

Don't take this the wrong way guys, but I like to buy sets, and then do a tiered sell off.  So, I tend to space out my selling, and not sell them all at once, that way I catch it on many points on the curve.  That's my way of usually doing it.  So, i'm just kind of joking about being greedy on this one.  Last christmas, I sold two of these along with a bunch of other sets, while also buying at-at's, ISD's, a few sea cows, some of the retiring architecture sets, tons of retiring black series figures, and lonely mountains....... so, i'm not losing money, nor am I stretched for cash...  I think I picked wisely on most of what I did and a lot of those sets are even rising for next year, when I can rinse and repeat. To me this is just a hobby, and a bit of a fun game.  Basically, the entire point of my post was that I was shocked to go on amazon recently, check up on the stats (which I haven't been paying too much attention to lately, because i've been traveling, have too much workload going on, and it's that slow time of year) and was shocked to see such an uptick of resellers on this one. 

So, that's the whole point.  This set gained a lot of resellers in little time.  I think it will stall out the rise in price on this one, and so if you want to sell this higher than it went over the holidays, it may be a long time before that happens. 

Other sets like the Republic Gunship, and a few others that have retired around the same time, that I also checked in on have not gone down that path. They seem to have less sellers, and higher prices than during christmas.

Edited March 31, 2016 by fossilrock

[newbie77]

1 minute ago, fossilrock said:

Don't take this the wrong way guys, but I like to buy sets, and then do a tiered sell off.  So, I tend to space out my selling, and not sell them all at once, that way I catch it on many points on the curve.  That's my way of usually doing it.  So, i'm just kind of joking about being greedy on this one.  Last christmas, I sold two of these along with a bunch of other sets, while also buying at-at's, ISD's, a few sea cows, tons of retiring black series figures, and lonely mountains....... so, i'm not losing money, nor am I stretched for cash...  I think I picked wisely on most of what I did. To me this is just a hobby, and a bit of a fun game.  Basically, the entire point of my post was that I was shocked to go on amazon recently, check up on the stats (which I haven't been paying too much attention to lately, because i've been traveling, have too much workload going on, and it's that slow time of year) and was shocked to see such an uptick of resellers on this one. 

So, that's the whole point.  This set gained a lot of resellers in little time.  I think it will stall out the rise in price on this one, and so if you want to sell this higher than it went over the holidays, it may be a long time before that happens. 

Other sets like the Republic Gunship, and a few others that I also checked in on have not gone down that path. 

what you are not looking at

A. is the the absorption rate. 21103 ranking in amazon used to be in 800's or 1000's now its "#8,040" which means that its demand is not where it once was. 

when it was lower number (i.e. less than 1000) addition supply was 60(assume) and sell of 200 per day it won't effect price such. not with 8000 its barely moving over 30sets/day which means that when 60 are added you are going to see correction in price.

B. while BTTF (21103) was purchased for the "same" collector mentality by lot of people. set 75019 and most star war sets tend to be opened and played with. hence over time the actual quantity available for secondary market decreases

C. its that time of month .. opps sorry year i mean.. star of slowest period for LEGO/toys perhaps. it will fall off in summer.  

D. there is lot more inventory in the shadow. i tend to call them shadow inventory.

btw, i am contributing to the "bubble" .. just purchased 10X of older star war sets from a reseller ;).

[Phil B]

@newbie77 is this you?

[Derricku]

2015 was when Marty was supposed to have traveled to. If Marty had traveled to 2016, he would have told himself to sell in 2015.

[gregpj]

I just watched the BTTF documentary "Back in Time" on Netflix last night. Some of it was pretty cheesy, but for the most part if you're a BTTF fan you'll enjoy it! Don't want to spoil anything, but certainly some facts I didn't know about the stars of the movie!!

Link to the film's website: http://backintimefilm.com/

[randrace]

Arundel Mills MD has these for $20. picked up two left three

Go back and pick up those three!

[Kurinoko]

On 31/3/2016 at 5:12 PM, fossilrock said:

Somehow this set on amazon has gained 100 new sellers since christmas, and prices have also dropped about 30.00 from the peak.  At one point, it was near 110 sellers, and prices were going for about 150.  Now, it's 222 sellers, and prices down to 119.  What gives.. were there really that many people holding this one?  This is kind of a glimpse of what is to come for the future, I think.  Another sign that maybe reselling lego is hitting a bubble.  I'm noticing this trend with some other sets too.  The prophecies of some of the ones "deemed crazy" a year ago, might be ringing the bell of truth.

 

It surely confirms that buying exclusives and/or iconic sets and holding them for months/years isn't enough be successful in this game anymore. I'm still a baby in here and I'm doing this at small scale but from what I learned : low buy in is king. And when I say low, I mean low.

Edit : Didn't pay attention to the date of my quote, off topic now, sorry

Edited December 1, 2016 by Kurinoko

[Voltron]

3 minutes ago, Kurinoko said:

It surely confirms that buying exclusives and/or iconic sets and holding them for months/years isn't enough be successful in this game anymore. I'm still a baby in here and I'm doing this at small scale but from what I learned : low buy in is king. And when I say low, I mean low.

Edit : Didn't pay attention to the date of my quote, off topic now, sorry

Low buy in is good but you also need to make sure you pick the right sets. No point buying a set for 50% off RRP if the set struggles to reach close to RRP after retirement. 

[Kurinoko]

Low buy in is good but you also need to make sure you pick the right sets. No point buying a set for 50% off RRP if the set struggles to reach close to RRP after retirement. 

Yup obviously.

[knr]

Is there a way to tell if a sealed 21103 set contains the "sheild"
misprint?  Thanks

Edited December 14, 2016 by knr

[Val-E]

On ‎12‎/‎13‎/‎2016 at 7:57 PM, knr said:

Is there a way to tell if a sealed 21103 set contains the "sheild"
misprint?  Thanks

a ) check the seal code on the box to see when it was made (week, letter, year) and contrast with when the correction was rolled out.

b ) Open it!

[richiej1979]

With this news...

https://www.newdelorean.com/

And the release of Ready Player One this year, I may hold onto my used 21103 for a bit longer...

[Guest TabbyBoy]

13 minutes ago, richiej1979 said:

With this news...

https://www.newdelorean.com/

And the release of Ready Player One this year, I may hold onto my used 21103 for a bit longer...

I'd love to see the Delorean return, the real one looked stunning with its naked steel finish.  However, I think BTTF part 4 should use a red/white VW T1 Camper Van - LOL.

[richiej1979]

1 minute ago, TabbyBoy said:

I'd love to see the Delorean return.

'You can order them now I think.

[gregpj]

1 hour ago, richiej1979 said:

With this news...

https://www.newdelorean.com/

And the release of Ready Player One this year, I may hold onto my used 21103 for a bit longer...

News? They haven't updated their blog in over 15 months.

http://www.newdelorean.com/blog/

And there is literally no estimated timeline for them to be allowed to begin production... these guys are just a museum hoping to eventually build a few (limited to 325 per year) cars.

https://www.hemmings.com/blog/2017/12/19/overdue-federal-regulations-force-low-volume-replica-car-builders-to-delay-production/?refer=newdelorean

I wouldn't wait too long.