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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

Somehow this set on amazon has gained 100 new sellers since christmas, and prices have also dropped about 30.00 from the peak.  At one point, it was near 110 sellers, and prices were going for about 150.  Now, it's 222 sellers, and prices down to 119.  What gives.. were there really that many people holding this one?  This is kind of a glimpse of what is to come for the future, I think.  Another sign that maybe reselling lego is hitting a bubble.  I'm noticing this trend with some other sets too.  The prophecies of some of the ones "deemed crazy" a year ago, might be ringing the bell of truth.

 

Sorry to hammer this, but "bubble" != "Market Correction". What you describe above is an influx of stock which triggers normal demand/supply corrections such as a price drop. Has nothing to do with a bubble, apart from creating less favorable conditions for selling. So net, a market correction. A bubble only happens when resellers start buying from resellers at inflated prices because of a perceived further increase in value down the road, artificially driving the price up. The tell-tale sign of a bubble is _increasing_ prices plus _increasing supply_ (though the latter might not always show, which makes it difficult to differentiate a bubble from a normal appreciation cycle)

Edited by Phil B
  • Like 1
Posted
4 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

Somehow this set on amazon has gained 100 new sellers since christmas, and prices have also dropped about 30.00 from the peak.  At one point, it was near 110 sellers, and prices were going for about 150.  Now, it's 222 sellers, and prices down to 119.  What gives.. were there really that many people holding this one?  This is kind of a glimpse of what is to come for the future, I think.  Another sign that maybe reselling lego is hitting a bubble.  I'm noticing this trend with some other sets too.  The prophecies of some of the ones "deemed crazy" a year ago, might be ringing the bell of truth.

 

I can only tell you my story. I bought one of these late spring 2015 for $50. Built it. Saw potential gains. Bought another for $50. I still have not sold the NISB one. My target was $100 after fees. I'm starting to get impatient. I've got bills to pay and mouths to feed. Perhaps I am not the only one.

Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Phil B said:

Sorry to hammer this, but "bubble" != "Market Correction". What you describe above is an influx of stock which triggers normal demand/supply corrections such as a price drop. Has nothing to do with a bubble, apart from creating less favorable conditions for selling. So net, a market correction. A bubble only happens when resellers start buying from resellers at inflated prices because of a perceived further increase in value down the road, artificially driving the price up. The tell-tale sign of a bubble is _increasing_ prices plus _increasing supply_ (though the latter might not always show, which makes it difficult to differentiate a bubble from a normal appreciation cycle)

I should have said, a popping of a micro-bubble.  My bad.  Because that is what happened on this set.  While certain sets are still doing well, this set has had it's bubble burst from it's peak, and now prices are going down.  Yes, it's definitely a market correction.  However, unlike sets that are not retired, this one is, and that makes such a influx of stock seem a bit shocking. 

But, with more resellers flocking in, and now the numbers at a near peak for reselling, I don't expect this to hit 150 again at the bottom of the reselling curve anytime soon.   I have my doubts 99% of people that are going to buy this set are going to use the buybox, when it's much cheaper at the lower end of the scale.  I also see prices continuing a downward trend on this one.  I see the same happening to other sets, especially exclusives that retired over the last 2 years. 

Interesting times, but the signs are starting to show that a larger overall bubble has formed.  This is one of the definite success stories, don't get me wrong.  This set is a 5x winner after fees for some. But this new trend is a bit of an annoyance.  I was hoping to sell my remaining 2 for around 200... but now realize, it may have to sit a while to even think of that. 

Edited by fossilrock
Posted
24 minutes ago, Phil B said:

Sorry to hammer this, but "bubble" != "Market Correction". What you describe above is an influx of stock which triggers normal demand/supply corrections such as a price drop. Has nothing to do with a bubble, apart from creating less favorable conditions for selling. So net, a market correction. A bubble only happens when resellers start buying from resellers at inflated prices because of a perceived further increase in value down the road, artificially driving the price up. The tell-tale sign of a bubble is _increasing_ prices plus _increasing supply_ (though the latter might not always show, which makes it difficult to differentiate a bubble from a normal appreciation cycle)

You mean like the other resellers who were buying my town halls for $550? Some of those exact same buyers are now selling them for $515.

Posted
25 minutes ago, Phil B said:

A bubble only happens when resellers start buying from resellers at inflated prices because of a perceived further increase in value down the road, artificially driving the price up.

 

22 minutes ago, Poly 30286 said:

I can only tell you my story. I bought one of these late spring 2015 for $50. Built it. Saw potential gains. Bought another for $50. I still have not sold the NISB one. My target was $100 after fees. I'm starting to get impatient. I've got bills to pay and mouths to feed. Perhaps I am not the only one.

 

Ummmm

Posted

And yes, this could move to the bubble thread, but I'd like to add that I bought in well before the world was told that LEGO trading was a better bet than gold. I can't imagine what's yet to come. 

Posted
I can only tell you my story. I bought one of these late spring 2015 for $50. Built it. Saw potential gains. Bought another for $50. I still have not sold the NISB one. My target was $100 after fees. I'm starting to get impatient. I've got bills to pay and mouths to feed. Perhaps I am not the only one.

Impatience is what is going to separate the flippers from the investors.

  • Like 4
Posted

You must have the patience for the set to drop back down to msrp I guess.

Posted
 

LOL - bubble talk about a set that you could buy for $27.99 months at a time and still now even after the"bubble" has burst still sell for  4x what you paid.

i'll take more bubbles please.

 

  • Like 9
Posted
25 minutes ago, cladner said:
 

LOL - bubble talk about a set that you could buy for $27.99 months at a time and still now even after the"bubble" has burst still sell for  4x what you paid.

i'll take more bubbles please.

 

I have learned one thing on here and it is that all roads lead to bubbles

(the discussion that is .... not reality)

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