31026 - Bike Shop & Cafe

[exciter1]

7 minutes ago, Val-E said:

How´s that plan working out? Sorry, I couldn´t resist trolling - this set is still a complete investment disaster.

It's past RRP in the US now, so it's making a decent showing after being discounted to almost 50% off several times.

[Val-E]

Nice, still stuck at RRP here so only half way to go to the magic 140 figure, then! Maybe next Xmas or the one after that.

[Achilles]

You know it's weird, I literally ended up with 0 of these, I NEVER saw them at a discount great than 20-25% or so. I always felt the MSRP was a bit high for what you got in the box, but I certainly wasn't some genius who avoided it. I just never found them cheap. 

[feed]

Started to move at £70/£75 off of a £65 retail in the UK.  I picked mine up in March and I doubt they were the last in the country.  
So just over six months to pass retail.  looks promising.  
 

[Val-E]

I actually had the choice between one and a T1 in a competition. I chose T1 because it was more expensive and figured it would retire sooner. Funny thing is it didn´t but even then it is still worth more!

[exciter1]

8 minutes ago, Achilles said:

You know it's weird, I literally ended up with 0 of these, I NEVER saw them at a discount great than 20-25% or so. I always felt the MSRP was a bit high for what you got in the box, but I certainly wasn't some genius who avoided it. I just never found them cheap. 

I think I got the bulk of mine when they dropped to $55 at TRU.  This was long before Target blew them out on Black Friday for what, $53?

[MinifigW]

My Kmart has these at $42.50. Not sure if I should pick them up, only going for $75isn on BL currently

[jaylay]

My Kmart has these at $42.50. Not sure if I should pick them up, only going for $75isn on BL currently

What u waiting for. That's free money.

[MinifigW]

2 hours ago, jaylay said:

What u waiting for. That's free money.

Only had a $50 budget last time I went there. Scooped up a bunch of smaller sets for 75% off instead of one getting one. I'm heading back on Sunday, might still be a few there. (only sold two in the past three months at $50)

[Sozial]

On 19. Oktober 2016 at 0:34 AM, Val-E said:

How´s that plan working out? Sorry, I couldn´t resist trolling - this set is still a complete investment disaster.

Well, yes it seems I am wrong with my prediction. I got them for 35€, so I am not really worried, but I thought by now it would have surpassed 100€ on Amazon, but there are about 100 pcs to that mark.

lets see how xmas is getting the price up, but I dont think many parents will buy that set as present:/

[feed]

4 hours ago, Sozial said:

Well, yes it seems I am wrong with my prediction. I got them for 35€, so I am not really worried, but I thought by now it would have surpassed 100€ on Amazon, but there are about 100 pcs to that mark.

lets see how xmas is getting the price up, but I dont think many parents will buy that set as present:/

Can I ask why you thought it would appreciate so quickly? 

I see other posts about how sets haven’t gained or aren’t much above RRP yet.  And I think isn’t just too soon, when so many of them were available for such a long time after the Lego retired date and typically discounted?  

Take the bike shop.  I picked up mine at for £40 in March.  The fact that they’re moving at £75 a little over 6 months later, seems remarkable for a set that wasn’t particularly popular during its life.  But this is considered poor?  
 

[Ciaraf76]

Bizarrely I got mine for £20 in Smyths!  I originally bought it for the kids but I might sell it and buy them something else instead.

[Ciglione]

So many complaints... 

I have one. And I bought it at release day for RRP of 70 euro. 

[Val-E]

2 hours ago, Ciglione said:

So many complaints... 

I have one. And I bought it at release day for RRP of 70 euro. 

 

[Sozial]

5 hours ago, feed said:

Can I ask why you thought it would appreciate so quickly? 

I see other posts about how sets haven’t gained or aren’t much above RRP yet.  And I think isn’t just too soon, when so many of them were available for such a long time after the Lego retired date and typically discounted?  

Take the bike shop.  I picked up mine at for £40 in March.  The fact that they’re moving at £75 a little over 6 months later, seems remarkable for a set that wasn’t particularly popular during its life.  But this is considered poor?  
 

I just assumed that 1,5xRRP is doable within one year of EOL. Guess I will leave 31026 in my warehouse and will send it mid 2017 to Amazon.

[Achilles]

I don't know if the market is different overseas, but 1.5 MSRP within one year of EOL seems highly unrealistic except for the absolute BEST performers - sudden retirements. Stuff like AT-AT, Town Hall. 

For decent performers, it takes AT LEAST 2 years for the vast majority, some sets take 3 years now, if they get there at all. 

I guess a couple recent Creator theme examples would be Family house 31012, officially retired 2 years ago - And hits 1.5 MSRP ($70, $105) or so about now, and Aviation Adventures which is Nov 2 years EOL, and still is not 1.5 MSRP. ($60 MSRP, Avail $75 on Amazon now).

Some sets perform better/quicker than others, but as has been exhaustively discussed, time for appreciation on most sets has increased a great deal. You need a surefire winner or a set with a short shelf life to get those quick appreciations.

[Val-E]

2 hours ago, Achilles said:

I don't know if the market is different overseas, but 1.5 MSRP within one year of EOL seems highly unrealistic except for the absolute BEST performers - sudden retirements. Stuff like AT-AT, Town Hall. 

For decent performers, it takes AT LEAST 2 years for the vast majority, some sets take 3 years now, if they get there at all. 

I guess a couple recent Creator theme examples would be Family house 31012, officially retired 2 years ago - And hits 1.5 MSRP ($70, $105) or so about now, and Aviation Adventures which is Nov 2 years EOL, and still is not 1.5 MSRP. ($60 MSRP, Avail $75 on Amazon now).

Some sets perform better/quicker than others, but as has been exhaustively discussed, time for appreciation on most sets has increased a great deal. You need a surefire winner or a set with a short shelf life to get those quick appreciations.

Our markets are as different as our languages! Sets like red 5, DS and ISD have all reached 1.5 msrp within less than a year but then fallen back. The problem with this one I feel is that it is not in demand for kids and not attractive to AFOLS so it has no specific target audience. Simlar sets are the Brick Bounty and Lone Ranger stuff.

[lodibricks]

While I have no vision of its future, I think one factor to consider is this is the first in this newer mini modular trend. There might be people joining late in the game who want to catch up on the theme a few years later.

[Val-E]

6 minutes ago, lodibricks said:

While I have no vision of its future, I think one factor to consider is this is the first in this newer mini modular trend. There might be people joining late in the game who want to catch up on the theme a few years later.

True but it´s always better to buy sets that have a captive audience than to speculate on might be´s. It´s hard enough picking winners from established themes so combien that with stuff no one know is an added risk in a market that is less and less permissive.

 

[redghostx]

I like this set because it's larger than all of the newer ones. It could end up as a 1.5-2x MSRP which would be swell.

One significant problem with the long term growth of the set if that there are few rare pieces. There is only one unique piece and 3 rare ones in this set and none of the minifigure parts are rare.

[Jeffrey_Dollars]

6 hours ago, Val-E said:

True but it´s always better to buy sets that have a captive audience than to speculate on might be´s. It´s hard enough picking winners from established themes so combien that with stuff no one know is an added risk in a market that is less and less permissive.

 

In my opinion it has a captive audience already. It's the same people who like/would like modulars but don't have as much disposable income.

[Val-E]

6 hours ago, Jeffrey_Dollars said:

In my opinion it has a captive audience already. It's the same people who like/would like modulars but don't have as much disposable income.

Therefore they won´t pay over RRP as they are moving towards modular pricing or if they are cheap/morally lacking they´ll get Lepin. That´s why this set is only good at 50% off.