Crustybeaver Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 What evidence (real data, not made up) do you have that supply is outpacing demand? Keep in mind, investors are NOT the supply. LEGO factories are the supply. A LEGO set in the hands of an investor isn't 2 LEGO sets, it's still just one. LEGO, as we all know, attempts to limit the affects investors have on the overall supply in the short term. Investors who buy and hold create an artificially tight supply in the short term, not the other way around. Resellers cannot affect the supply, only the current price point. In the end, only LEGO controls the actual supply. And they are pretty particular about not oversaturating the market. For the record, Brickset shows (359) 2014 releases, which includes all promo items, poly bags, juniors, Duplo, collectible minifigures, etc. Just so we're using real data. I would say 2014 is probably an anomaly with the Movie sets being an extra theme, 2 collectible minifig releases, etc. Time will tell. I am not worried. For the record, Amazon sales have been steady for me in 2014. Same with BrickLink. I don't do much on eBay. Post EOL investors ARE the supply, not the factories. Ha ha of course investors can affect supply, seriously do you believe half the crap you're writing!!? Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StarCityBrickCompany Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 For those "old timers" who were spoiled by 100%+++ returns in less than a year, sorry that Jeff and I pooped on your parade. Adapt or die. The incessant complaining about the good old days and how BrickPicker ruined the market is growing tiresome. Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker It is nice to see that you are now at least accepting the blame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naf Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 I will continue to complain about Helm and Vampyre because if they were going to be money makers, they wouldn't still be available. I'm not a newb, been at this for over a year. Look how quick Fire Brigade dried up...that should have happened with two 100+ dollar sets that everyone universally loved. Apples to oranges. HD and VC are way easier to get than Fire Brigade. FB is a Lego exclusive, only available online or at Lego store, and there are less total copies of it around, hence the demand is going to outpace the supply much quicker. I thought your generation were just a me me me lazy sack of **** give me. Money while I play video games class. Good for you man. Keep doing what you're doing. Technically anyone born since 1980 is a lazy sack of bantha fodder according the media. Remember, every generation is going to be the end of the world according to the previous generation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biniou Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Perhaps a poll is in order, something like ... Are you a ...? 1) Investor/Reseller 2) Hobbyist (1 for me & 1 to sell down the road) 3) Collector (Just want to know about good deals for me and for gifts) 2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holleman67 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 It's funny that must people who say they are experiencing low sales have in the same sentence started they have decreased their holdings because they believe there are too many on this boat. It does not matter what industry you are in but there will be slow tines and busy times. We just need to plan accordingly. Those who don't well hurt in their sales and feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensche Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 And as always, truth lies in between the statements made so far... The market is growing, as does demand and also supply. But take into consideration that there still is enough space for investors (even new ones), the margins are not the same anymore but still are high enough to satisfy. Decisions only have to be made more carefully what to buy and when to sell. I think (and that is perhaps just my opinion and experiences) it is too early to interpret too much in sales that didn't take place as they were supposed to. Supply and demand: Take ebay as an example... if there is a set (EOL a year ago, MSRP 99,99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensche Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 It's funny that must people who say they are experiencing low sales have in the same sentence started they have decreased their holdings because they believe there are too many on this boat. It does not matter what industry you are in but there will be slow tines and busy times. We just need to plan accordingly. Those who don't well hurt in their sales and feel it. 100% agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 It is nice to see that you are now at least accepting the blame. You haven't seen anything yet. Wait till you see all the new ways we will promote LEGO and the new Daily Deals and Classifieds, with a new look on the site and the way it all ties together. We are the Alpha and the Omega. We are the Beginning and the End of LEGO investing....MUHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Young_Gun21 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 You haven't seen anything yet. Wait till you see all the new ways we will promote LEGO and the new Daily Deals and Classifieds, with a new look on the site and the way it all ties together. We are the Alpha and the Omega. We are the Beginning and the End of LEGO investing....MUHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA Any Idea when this is going to be launched? Sounds amazing. -I don't always go shopping, but when I do I buy Lego- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StarCityBrickCompany Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 You haven't seen anything yet. Wait till you see all the new ways we will promote LEGO and the new Daily Deals and Classifieds, with a new look on the site and the way it all ties together. We are the Alpha and the Omega. We are the Beginning and the End of LEGO investing....MUHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA I have always liked you Ed (you are a good guy) - Even if you are destroying the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 I have always liked you Ed (you are a good guy) - Even if you are destroying the world Evil is my first name... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZULU Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Hello Oversypply - demand is difficult to estimate. Two elements: 1/ the trick is to estimate how much of lego group's growth was triggered by lego investors lifting demand artificially and potentially over-supplying the market if the community gets a scare. Clearly last year, Lego took measure to stop this trend of inflating demand from non-players in order to avoid this type of frenzy and potential price bust which could damage its reputation. The way to do that isn't as simple as looking at E-bay stats. Somebody should look up lego-stats in annual statements and look at CAGR. Compare it to other toy players and make a guess of overdemand. I suspect when I see how quickly the 41999 went away, there was some issue in 2013... 2/ popularity is another matter and widely covered on this site and others. I'm less worried about the need for more bricks when I see MOC-shops only starting to open. There's some road to go ... Please let me know what your estimate is for issue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Any Idea when this is going to be launched? Sounds amazing. -I don't always go shopping, but when I do I buy Lego- Very soon. Jeff has been working on a complete overhaul of the site once again to improve speed and download times. We are moving away from Wordpress to Jeff's own code once again so that all of the individual pages and features work well with one another. He showed me on Saturday and I was very excited. The new template and Daily Deals looks great. We have shown the Mods some of the pages and they seem to like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naf Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 I have always liked you Ed (you are a good guy) - Even if you are destroying the world Look at his avatar, he is clearly the devil 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imirish11 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 There is nothing abnormal about the Lego secondary market. The market for whatever set you decide to sell, more or less, will always follow the path of a perfectly competitive market. Know your econ 101*. Keep calm, carry on. *Yes, we should all know that Perfect Competition is just an endpoint on a spectrum, and the market, according to its true characteristics, is located somewhere between Perfect Competition and Monopolistic Competition, but my point is simply to illustrate the events that take place as the market evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stoltzjl77 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Post EOL investors ARE the supply, not the factories. Ha ha of course investors can affect supply, seriously do you believe half the crap you're writing!!? Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker No, post EOL investors *control* the supply. The SUPPLY is how many LEGO makes. I didn't say investors don't affect supply, I said the exact opposite. Did you even read what I wrote, or are you deliberately creating straw men to try and cover up your lack of data to back up your assertions? "the supply (investors) continues to grow larger than the demand (buyers)" I stand by my assertion that investors are not the supply. They can control the supply after a set is EOL, yes. But they can't increase the overall supply of a given set. Only LEGO can do that. I also stand by my assertion that resellers can't control the supply. If I buy a set and then list it for sale, I haven't changed the supply. Hopefully I'm moving the price point otherwise there isn't any point in reselling. Show me the data that demonstrates post-EOL sets are no longer following the general appreciation models that BrickPicker publishes, and I will agree with you. Show me the data that demonstrates the number of collectors (buyers) is shrinking, and I will agree with you. Show me neither, but continue to assert the supply is increasing and the demand is decreasing, and I will disengage from this discussion as it is pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoNotInsertIntoMouth Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Stuff comes and goes. I sold 8 batman figures from 76011 Manbat Attack this weekend. 8. At $9.99. Anyone trying to figure out the "ebay market" can't. Its random and completely impulse a lot of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crustybeaver Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 No, post EOL investors *control* the supply. The SUPPLY is how many LEGO makes. I didn't say investors don't affect supply, I said the exact opposite. Did you even read what I wrote, or are you deliberately creating straw men to try and cover up your lack of data to back up your assertions? "the supply (investors) continues to grow larger than the demand (buyers)" I stand by my assertion that investors are not the supply. They can control the supply after a set is EOL, yes. But they can't increase the overall supply of a given set. Only LEGO can do that. I also stand by my assertion that resellers can't control the supply. If I buy a set and then list it for sale, I haven't changed the supply. Hopefully I'm moving the price point otherwise there isn't any point in reselling. Show me the data that demonstrates post-EOL sets are no longer following the general appreciation models that BrickPicker publishes, and I will agree with you. Show me the data that demonstrates the number of collectors (buyers) is shrinking, and I will agree with you. Show me neither, but continue to assert the supply is increasing and the demand is decreasing, and I will disengage from this discussion as it is pointless. So you didn't say and I quote 'Resellers cannot affect the supply'? I didn't even bother reading the rest of your post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stoltzjl77 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 If you don't differentiate between resellers and investors, you don't spend much time on this site. "I didn't even bother reading the rest of your post!" Well then I won't waste any more time correcting your fallacious arguments. Done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legoman12323123 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 EVERYTHING IS NOT AWESOME .. LEGO IS GUNNA CRASH AND BURN GET OUT NOW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holleman67 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 EVERYTHING IS NOT AWESOME .. LEGO IS GUNNA CRASH AND BURN GET OUT NOW You must be why it's crashing with all of the vh! I kid I kid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpinemaps Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 It doesn't help that everybody and their mother is "investing" and selling legos on Ebay, Craigslist, "online store", etc now. One simple search on Ebay by Average Joe, the casual lego consumer/collector, will throw a light bulb on that legos sell very well on the secondary market and then the idea is planted. After that, a quick Google search leads to many sites like this and, just like that, we have a new lego investor saturating the market. I'm sure that is happening and will happen on a weekly basis for the forseeable future, especially seeing what some of these higher end sets are selling for now. I mean, let's be realistic. This site is great and informative but at the same time is "giving away the secret" to how it is all done, right done to the very last minute detail. Delusions of grandeur are one of human beings worst traits. Not to mention the economy is not that great anymore so many of these newbies will be contempt with making only a few bucks on the side to get by meaning they are willing to lower their prices below what many here would sell their product for. On top of that, so many of us have 10-50 sets that we want to list two years after retirement, all at the same time. I mean seriously, what do we really think is going to happen!!?? One has to admit that it's beginning to get a little out of hand. I just don't get that argument - that everybody and their mother is investing in Lego. I live in a pretty big metro area - San Diego. Within an hour of me, there are over 15 different Walmarts. The same with Target and the other big retailers. You might think I'd see tons of stuff go on sale, but we don't. We get the occasional clearance sells, but for the most part, they don't exist. In 1 1/2 years on this site, I've found two other people that live in San Diego - and that was just within the past week. I don't know *anyone* that does Lego investing in my real life. I talk about it often with friends and family, mostly because they want to know how I seem to buy all these Legos, and finance such an "expensive" hobby. No one has ever taken my advice about investing. No one has ever come to be with more questions on where they can find sets cheap. Even when I hear about Slickdeal level type deals, and pass those along to friends and family, no one ever takes advantage of them. It seems like we tend to think we're a lot bigger than we are. It's just like any fandom. I've been apart of Star Trek, Star Wars, and Doctor Who fandoms in varying degrees over the last 25 years, and when you're in that group, you think you're a majority. But you are really a tiny tiny minority in the bigger picture. There's still plenty of room and plenty of niches to carve out in Lego investing. Slow and steady wins the race. Figuring out the strategy that works for you, and what your investment goals are, will be what makes you a success. Sometimes, though, you can't see the forest for the trees. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anakinisvader Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 EVERYTHING IS NOT AWESOME .. LEGO IS GUNNA CRASH AND BURN GET OUT NOW You mean like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crustybeaver Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 If you don't differentiate between resellers and investors, you don't spend much time on this site. "I didn't even bother reading the rest of your post!" Well then I won't waste any more time correcting your fallacious arguments. Done! It's a little arrogant to assume you've corrected anyone, you've merely given an opinion. To answer your questions in a previous post. Buyers are not reducing in size, after all investors are buyers themselves but it's pretty apparent that with the amount of investors coming on board and competing is having an affect on flipping sets EOL for short term gain. I still believe that most sets still continue to show growth over time as they have in years gone by but will take longer to increase in value due to larger stock piles. This doesn't apply to all sets and differs on themes. Take the Fire Brigade as an example, it's seeing great returns right now but Lord of the Rings is struggling. I've been keeping an eye on Helm's Deep in the UK and alot of auctions sell at 80 - 90% RRP. I don't have figures, if you want those speak to Ed. I can only comment on my own sales and my observations from eBay sales Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hxckid88 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Can u two just go fight out back or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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