A little chart about modulars

[biniou]

Hi, here is a chart I made to make things more clear and I wanted to share it with you because I think that it makes things more understandable.

(years are divided in quarters: 2010-1, 2010-2, 2010-3, 2010-4)

 

As we can see, when a set was retired, another appeared in about the next months.

Cafe corner out > Grand Empire in

Green Grocer out > Pet shop in

Fire Brigade out > Parisian Rest. in

 

There's some expections: Town Hall in (first quarter of 2012), and Palace cinema in, and nothing out. Because of the success of modulars (so much success that they have been included in "lego the movie", which could be surprising for such expensive sets) TLG may have consider to enlarge the number of sets available at the same time:

2 sets in 2008 and 2009

3 sets in 2010 and 2011

4 sets in 2012

5 sets in 2013

4 sets in 2014 ??? (GE retired, or is going to be)

 

We can also see that while Cafe corner and Green grocer have been available for 2 years (and a half), since Fire brigade it seems that sets will stay 4 years on shelves.

 

My guess using this chart: Pet shop will be the next modular retired, about December 2014 / January 2015.

And if TLG consider that 5 modulars at the same time is cool, then another may be coming...

 

I hope it helped.

[Ciglione]

Thanks Biniou, I hope you are not right. I have only one PS and I build it. I am 99% sure that GE is retiring soon. I will go and pick up some after work. Cause after double-vip next month they will be gone and become hard to find. The ones you will still find in shops will be marked-up right away. I guess 175 or higher.

[biniou]

On 3/18/2014, 4:36:13, Ciglione said:

I am 99% sure that GE is retiring soon.

I used http://brickset.com/sets/10211-1/Grand-Emporium and it says it is retired (since 04 March 2014).

But if we check US version of LEGO Shop at Home it says "Out of stock, expected ship date 29 Mar 2014".

 

BTW I only use US dates (it seems logical since we are on a US forum).

 

Anyway, GE is the next to be retired (before pet shop) because it's "its turn to leave".

 

 

edit: servimg as transformed (in a lower quality) my image, if a moderator can change the previous one (I can't edit my post) with this one:

Thanks

[Bernard74]

Any reason you didn't include Market Street?

And I have no trouble with you using U.S. Data because you have to go with something but I do object to calling brickpicker a U.S. Forum.

As far as I know brickpicker aims to be an international site, where American users are just the biggest group.

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[Huskers1236]

Any reason you didn't include Market Street?

And I have no trouble with you using U.S. Data because you have to go with something but I do object to calling brickpicker a U.S. Forum.

As far as I know brickpicker aims to be an international site, where American users are just the biggest group.

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Market Street was part of the Factory line, not Town, though I do consider it one of the Modulars.  Lego included it in Mini Modulars, so that's good enough for me.  It seems to run about 50/50 with those that consider it part of the line or not.  I think it depends on whether they own it or not to have it in "Modular Row"

[ninjasnake1337]

On 3/18/2014, 4:50:58, biniou said:

I used http://brickset.com/sets/10211-1/Grand-Emporium and it says it is retired (since 04 March 2014).

But if we check US version of LEGO Shop at Home it says "Out of stock, expected ship date 29 Mar 2014".

 

BTW I only use US dates (it seems logical since we are on a US forum).

 

Anyway, GE is the next to be retired (before pet shop) because it's "its turn to leave".

 

 

edit: servimg as transformed (in a lower quality) my image, if a moderator can change the previous one (I can't edit my post) with this one:

 

Thanks

 

Wrong: the brickset date does NOT mean this has been retired.  It shows availability, which means when a set is on backorder brickset shows it as no longer 'available' (makes sense).  By your logic, the Maersk Triple E is retired:

 

http://brickset.com/sets/10241-1/Maersk-Line-Triple-E

 

Which of course, it isn't, it is just not available at the moment.  I agree GE is likely to retire next, but there is nothing official that it has YET.  Let's not get folks into a panic here, it's easily done

 

******

[biniou]

Wrong: the brickset date does NOT mean this has been retired.  It shows availability (...)

Thanks, I didn't knew that.

Although for old sets it still means "retired" (no more available... because retired).

[mcortez]

And for those tracking it, GE is back in stock and shipping w/o back orders (at US LEGO Shop at Home).

[dbost01]

Definitely not retired

[weakside]

And for those tracking it, GE is back in stock and shipping w/o back orders (at US LEGO Shop at Home).

Cool.  Same in Canada.  Some of us are watching this set like a hawk haha. 

 

My wife said this morning, "great more of your inventory is selling...time to stock up on quality sets from now on" lol.  I think that's backhanded compliment?!    I've had a few hits and certainly some misses in 2013.  GE, PS, TB, Camper...should be safe/good investments in 2014.   

[mcortez]

And for those tracking it, GE is back in stock and shipping w/o back orders (at US LEGO Shop at Home).

 

And it's back out of stock...

[legoaddiction]

any updates to this spreadsheet?

Certainly looks interesting now that DO and PR are also in the timeline

[biniou]

On 21/11/2015 12:46:49, legoaddiction said:

any updates to this spreadsheet?

Certainly looks interesting now that DO and PR are also in the timeline

Ok I'll create an updated version.

[biniou]

I can't find the "edit" button so if a mod can update my first message, thanks by advance:

 

Of course this chart can look useless to many investors but it can help newcomers.

[gregpj]

@biniou I updated the main post. For some reason, after I tried to edit the first time it was showing two pictures which looked like the same one. I cleaned it all up and now the right one should be shown in the first post. Let me know if it doesn't look right.

 

[Alpinemaps]

Thanks biniou.

Such consistency, until Pet Shop/Town Hall.  Pet Shop is *screaming* to be retired.

However - we have 4 modulars in production right now, and Brick Bank could show us 5.  But it's not the first time 5 have been out at the same time.

In other words - who the heck knows?

[HandyHand]

Comparing Pet Shop with Grand Emporium the longevity of PS isn't really weird. It's about due for retirement when following normal schedule. GE had 20 quarters of life, and PS gets its 20th quarter with Q1 2016. The really odd one out is Town Hall which got a way too early retirement, as we all know of course.  

[Alpinemaps]

Comparing Pet Shop with Grand Emporium the longevity of PS isn't really weird. It's about due for retirement when following normal schedule. GE had 20 quarters of life, and PS gets its 20th quarter with Q1 2016. The really odd one out is Town Hall which got a way too early retirement, as we all know of course.  

Looking at the graphic again, you're right. I'm getting fooled by the bottom of the graph being there and the TH part of the graph.

[biniou]

1 hour ago, gregpj said:

@biniou I updated the main post. For some reason, after I tried to edit the first time it was showing two pictures which looked like the same one. I cleaned it all up and now the right one should be shown in the first post. Let me know if it doesn't look right.

 

Thank you my friend.

The reason of the 2 pictures displayed is because the message has been written last year with the old forum.

There was a picture and under the picture, a direct link (in case of problem of a picture blocked for some reason, I added a direct link).

But since the new forum automatically converts direct links into pictures, the second one has been transformed into another picture.

Not sure that I am understandable.

Aside note: I changed the display (sets/time becomes time/sets) because if did not, the chart would have been 2 screens large... lol

Now it's squarish and fits better on a computer screen

49 minutes ago, Alpinemaps said:

I'm getting fooled by the bottom of the graph being there and the TH part of the graph.

I could add some "retirement speculation" but I'm really not sure it would be helpful.

Edited November 24, 2015 by biniou

[Guest]

This chart is why I don't get when people say there should only be two modulars at a time. Looks like there has always been at least 3-4 available at any given time since day one. So in with the Brick Bank out with the (PS? PC?) and we will still have four next year.

[Alpinemaps]

55 minutes ago, biniou said:

I could add some "retirement speculation" but I'm really not sure it would be helpful.

No, no reason to do that.  With space under FB and GE, I feel like they have an ending.  With no space under PS, it "appears" to go on forever.  LOL.  But that's just how I'm looking at it.  You shouldn't make a change, because the bottom the most current period, and it's an accurate way to depict it.

37 minutes ago, MarxMarvelous said:

This chart is why I don't get when people say there should only be two modulars at a time. Looks like there has always been at least 3-4 available at any given time since day one. So in with the Brick Bank out with the (PS? PC?) and we will still have four next year.

For two years in a row (2013-1 to 2014-4), there were 5 modulars available at retail.  If PS doesn't retire, that would take us back to 5.  The "wildcard" is the Ghostbuster's Firehouse.  While not a modular, it's on the chart, and will be available starting next month.  So, counting that and PS, that would give us 6.

[biniou]

15 minutes ago, Alpinemaps said:

The "wildcard" is the Ghostbuster's Firehouse.  While not a modular, it's on the chart, and will be available starting next month.  So, counting that and PS, that would give us 6.

It would be the situation the haunted house has been during nearly two years, (2013-1 to 2014-4), most of its lifespan.

 

[Alpinemaps]

Ha!  Yes, you're right.  I wasn't paying attention to that side of the graph until I thought about the GBFH

[ZULU]

1 hour ago, MarxMarvelous said:

This chart is why I don't get when people say there should only be two modulars at a time. Looks like there has always been at least 3-4 available at any given time since day one. So in with the Brick Bank out with the (PS? PC?) and we will still have four next year.

The Pet Shop is as good as done.

The only argument to keep it alive "forever" (Status: "Sanctification), is that there's the aspect of showing multiples in one street without being annoying. (two palace cinemas for example is a little ridiculous)

Reasons to retire are:

1. Doesn't make commercial sense to keep too many of the same in the offering. 5 modulars seems already a lot

2. B&M shops have only so much shelf space - counting Lego Stores as well

3. Resellers' market is already flooded. Residual demand has probably been slowing already. And there's at least 5 years of supply at 200E starting price (if we get lucky and the QFLL aren't killing the margins of modulars as well)

4. Shop action tells me the last run has happened. There was a seperate accounting for my latest buy.

5. No new box layout for this one (unlike T1 which will never retire ://) I'm actually waiting for the new box of the DS... (joke? or not?)

That's at least what I hope.

And then we'll see how smart it was to buy all these PS....

take care and cross some fingers together.

Extra: 

My "All Saints" list of Lego sets:

DS

TB

T1

and...

21006 White House

[bigreen]

Great work!

Sometimes I just wondering whether or not modular's life span has something to do with their MSRP?