Average Set MSRP in your collections

[redeemed763]

We all know the benefits of large sets in our collections, large sets are winners, they are the most sought after, the most rare, the most memorable, and the ones most easily passed on because people may not have the money at a given point in time. They have the added benefit of increasing sale amounts which gets you more money for less time spent selling. 

 

In reviewing many of the members with large collections on here (~$50,000+) it seems that a lot of their inventories are in smaller sets (under $75 msrp) and many with really small sets (under $40 msrp). I am curious why there is such disparity between the sets we talk about and want to invest in, and the ones we actually wind up getting. If you went on here and said I want to invest in sets that average less than $50 retail, we would pretty universally try to advise them to look into more expensive sets if they had the funds. Looking at Ed's collection (not picking on him, just using an example as his about on par with a lot of the large collections I see) his average set size is 177 pieces, now, even if half of his sets are CFM's, that still puts his average set at about 350 pieces. Many others here talk of having thousands of sets in their inventory (and have the photos to back them up!) but it seems that like Ed, they hoard a lot of small ones as well.

 

Personally, my collection is microscopic, about $13k in total retail inventory, but I only have 110 sets. This comes to an average of about $120 per set, and each time I look at my collection, I groan and think, "why did I buy all these small sets!" I have to list and ship each of them someday and the thought of doing that is kind of tedious. At the same time, I wonder if I should be putting more money in the small ones since I may be missing something big by just getting the high dollar sets. However, it doesn't seem that there is a problem with getting enough diversity if you only bought expensive sets. Currently, we have...

 

$499 - Death Star

$399 - SSD

$320 - Opera House

$250 - Sea Cow

$250 - Ewok Village

$240 - Tower Bridge

$220 - Mobile Crane

$200 - X Wing

$200 - Orthanc

$200 - Simpsons

$200 - Town Hall 

$200 - Technic 4x4

$180 - Cargo Train

$180 - Haunted House

$180 - R2 D2

$160 - Parisian Restaurant

$160 - Arkham Asylum

$150 - Maersk Triple E

$150 - Palace Cinema

$150 - Pet Shop

$150 - Grand Emporium

$140 - Millennium Falcon

$140 - Logging Truck

$130 - Horizon Express

$130 - Passenger Train

$130 - Technic F1 Racer

$130 - Service Truck

$120 - Camper Van

$120 - Jabba's Sail Barge

$120 - Jabba's Palace

$120 - Republic Gun Ship

$120 - Malevolence 

$120 - Town Square

$120 - Technic Helicoptor

 

This sums up the sets that are over $120, buying just one of each costs over $6000, even if you bought just 2/3rds of these, it would cost $4,000. We all know that you can make money off any number the these large sets, people get 50+ sometimes. You can drop your minimum price down to $80 and probably double this list if you want too. All this to say, I don't know if you NEED to buy small sets to be diverse. 

 

So, why do we get small sets? They take a lot of time to inventory and sell, maybe I am missing something here, I'd like to know where the value in them lies. Please let me know, a lot of people who are wiser and more experienced than myself are buying them. 

[Quacs]

We all know the benefits of large sets in our collections, large sets are winners, they are the most sought after, the most rare, the most memorable, and the ones most easily passed on because people may not have the money at a given point in time. They have the added benefit of increasing sale amounts which gets you more money for less time spent selling. 

 

In reviewing many of the members with large collections on here (~$50,000+) it seems that a lot of their inventories are in smaller sets (under $75 msrp) and many with really small sets (under $40 msrp). I am curious why there is such disparity between the sets we talk about and want to invest in, and the ones we actually wind up getting. If you went on here and said I want to invest in sets that average less than $50 retail, we would pretty universally try to advise them to look into more expensive sets if they had the funds. Looking at Ed's collection (not picking on him, just using an example as his about on par with a lot of the large collections I see) his average set size is 177 pieces, now, even if half of his sets are CFM's, that still puts his average set at about 350 pieces. Many others here talk of having thousands of sets in their inventory (and have the photos to back them up!) but it seems that like Ed, they hoard a lot of small ones as well.

 

Personally, my collection is microscopic, about $13k in total retail inventory, but I only have 110 sets. This comes to an average of about $120 per set, and each time I look at my collection, I groan and think, "why did I buy all these small sets!" I have to list and ship each of them someday and the thought of doing that is kind of tedious. At the same time, I wonder if I should be putting more money in the small ones since I may be missing something big by just getting the high dollar sets. However, it doesn't seem that there is a problem with getting enough diversity if you only bought expensive sets. Currently, we have...

 

$499 - Death Star

$399 - SSD

$320 - Opera House

$250 - Sea Cow

$250 - Ewok Village

$240 - Tower Bridge

$220 - Mobile Crane

$200 - X Wing

$200 - Orthanc

$200 - Simpsons

$200 - Town Hall 

$200 - Technic 4x4

$180 - Cargo Train

$180 - Haunted House

$180 - R2 D2

$160 - Parisian Restaurant

$160 - Arkham Asylum

$150 - Maersk Triple E

$150 - Palace Cinema

$150 - Pet Shop

$150 - Grand Emporium

$140 - Millennium Falcon

$140 - Logging Truck

$130 - Horizon Express

$130 - Passenger Train

$130 - Technic F1 Racer

$130 - Service Truck

$120 - Camper Van

$120 - Jabba's Sail Barge

$120 - Jabba's Palace

$120 - Republic Gun Ship

$120 - Malevolence 

$120 - Town Square

$120 - Technic Helicoptor

 

This sums up the sets that are over $120, buying just one of each costs over $6000, even if you bought just 2/3rds of these, it would cost $4,000. We all know that you can make money off any number the these large sets, people get 50+ sometimes. You can drop your minimum price down to $80 and probably double this list if you want too. All this to say, I don't know if you NEED to buy small sets to be diverse. 

 

So, why do we get small sets? They take a lot of time to inventory and sell, maybe I am missing something here, I'd like to know where the value in them lies. Please let me know, a lot of people who are wiser and more experienced than myself are buying them. 

 

I see a few reasons:

 

1. Some people have online stores that benefit from a breadth of product line and use it as a differentiator.

2. Small sets are easier to buy since they're not as expensive.

3. There are very few large sets from Super Heroes, TMNT, Friends, Ninjago, Lord of the Rings and Hobbit sets, popular themes for most investors. 

4. It's easier for small sets to earn strong ROI since their cost bases are smaller.

[exciter1]

I see a few reasons:

 

1. Some people have online stores that benefit from a breadth of product line and use it as a differentiator.

2. Small sets are easier to buy since they're not as expensive.

3. There are very few large sets from Super Heroes, TMNT, Friends, Ninjago, Lord of the Rings and Hobbit sets, popular themes for most investors. 

4. It's easier for small sets to earn strong ROI since their cost bases are smaller.

 

It's easier to find smaller sets at 50% - 70% off MSRP.  That's a big jump in return right there and that's if they just reach MSRP.  If they double MSRP, you have big big returns, even if that only means $40 profit from a $15 investment.

[labfreak7]

I dont see how you can say you have a lot of small sets??

My portfolio is about 1/4 of yours in value and I have 117 sets. Most are what I cnosider small

Ewok Village

Parisian Restaurant

R2-D2

Tower of Orthanc

LORT Pirate ship (2)

Goblin King (2)

Ghost train(2)

Silver Mine (2)

About a dozen of Spongebob Bikini 3818

A dozen Lone ranger cavalry (very small)

Some other 20-50$ sets.

 

The reason why: most or all of the sets I got at 50% off MSRP.

Smaller sets are also easier fo sell and ship. I think you get the most bang for your buck with the larger sets, but they take up a lot of room and are tough to find a good shipping box for them. Plus as many of us know, they almost never go on sale.

[redeemed763]

I agree with your statements Quacs, if I wanted to give good reasons for this, I would definitely provide those answers, but I can also play devil's advocate here as there are definitely counter points to each of those reasons.

 

1. Emazers stopped being a lego dealer simply because he didn't want to deal with all of the smaller sets, as they were required to participate in them, if there was such an advantage, surely he wouldn't have missed out on the advantage of being a dealer for this reason.

 

2. These folks have no problem with buying larger sets, the budgets are so big, if they have the budget to drop several thousand on a lot of these small sets, why can't they drop several thousand on a few big sets?

 

3. You don't need to buy the small sets to participate in the success of a line, each of these lines has medium sized sets that you can get as well retailing in the $60 and up price point, obviously, these are smaller than $120 sets but they aren't $15-$40 sets either. 

 

4. I don't know know about them necessarily getting stronger ROI, they may get higher CAGR but I have found that shipping costs and fees tend to be disproportionately more expensive with small sets than large ones, which tends to offset the higher CAGR.

[redeemed763]

It's easier to find smaller sets at 50% - 70% off MSRP.  That's a big jump in return right there and that's if they just reach MSRP.  If they double MSRP, you have big big returns, even if that only means $40 profit from a $15 investment.

^ This is probably the big reason for it, I hadn't thought about it, but it makes sense, you do see a lot more hauls of people robbing their local stores of small sets than the large ones. 

[tonysbricks]

How did you see what was in their collection? I didn't know that feature existed...I would love to see what Ed and some of the big boys are sitting on.

[redeemed763]

I think my problem is that I have hard time hitting the 50% off mark. My local stores just don't discount ever, I can go through the walmart discount aisle and at best the prices will match the going rate of Amazon, then I have to add sales tax and it is worse. I try Kmart, Shopko, Target, Walmart, TRU, my area must have some very aggressive lego buyers or the toy managers just don't need to clear stuff out. If I was able to see these small sets for 50% off at my local stores, I am sure I would have more of them. 

[MartinP]

I think my problem is that I have hard time hitting the 50% off mark. My local stores just don't discount ever, I can go through the walmart discount aisle and at best the prices will match the going rate of Amazon, then I have to add sales tax and it is worse. I try Kmart, Shopko, Target, Walmart, TRU, my area must have some very aggressive lego buyers or the toy managers just don't need to clear stuff out. If I was able to see these small sets for 50% off at my local stores, I am sure I would have more of them. 

This year, one of my local Targets has some sets at 30% off and they stayed that way for about three weeks. Then they finally sold. Never reached 50% off. The only time I found a clearance deal at about 50% off was a Gungan Sub, but then I discovered that the rare minifigures were stolen from it and I eventually returned it.

[Mos_Eisley]

I'm amazed that Emazer's decisions are still so influential on so many. He happily admits to only selling $20k per year to avoid receiving a 1099 from PayPal. Even if he doubled that on the side, there are plenty of people who are moving 5x+ of those numbers every year. Those are the people I'd want to be duplicating.

[binici]

^{I try to be diverse, but with limited space, I lean towards medium sized sets.}

^{Unless I make more room for the bigger sets (which I doubt will happen), I have to be careful and limited to what I purchase.}

[redeemed763]

How did you see what was in their collection? I didn't know that feature existed...I would love to see what Ed and some of the big boys are sitting on.

I can't see exactly what they have, I just know how many sets and how many total pieces, Ed happens to have 4500 sets and 800,000 pieces. I have 110 sets and about 120,000 pieces, so he has about 40x as many sets and 6.7x as many pieces.

[Deez_Brickz]

I'm amazed that Emazer's decisions are still so influential on so many. He happily admits to only selling $20k per year to avoid receiving a 1099 from PayPal. Even if he doubled that on the side, there are plenty of people who are moving 5x+ of those numbers every year. Those are the people I'd want to be duplicating.

Actually. I think some people stick to the big sets to be able to exceed the $20k limit but stay under the 200 transaction threshold. Not that I am advocating or accusing any single person of any type of evasion.

[redeemed763]

I'm amazed that Emazer's decisions are still so influential on so many. He happily admits to only selling $20k per year to avoid receiving a 1099 from PayPal. Even if he doubled that on the side, there are plenty of people who are moving 5x+ of those numbers every year. Those are the people I'd want to be duplicating.

I am not saying he has all the answers, I have no idea who is moving $200k per year, if they are doing it, I have no idea.  He is fairly vocal about things so we know more about what he has and his buying habits and strategies, this is probably the only reason he is influential. 

[terrymc4677]

 

So, why do we get small sets? They take a lot of time to inventory and sell, maybe I am missing something here, I'd like to know where the value in them lies. Please let me know, a lot of people who are wiser and more experienced than myself are buying them.

Some people like to hoard, with no intent to resell.

[Ed Mack]

I have't updated my Brickfolio in awhile, but I'm probably around 6000 sets and displays.  I really mix it up.  I buy all types of sets, from CMFs to large exclusives.  To be quite honest, I am running out of space.  I like to complete themes when I can and usually have at least two of every set.  There is an anal collector aspect to my method, so I appreciate a polybag as much as I love a huge exclusive box.  When buying CMFs, I always buy sealed cases.  Here's a list of my most recent purchases(2 months)...

 

• Sea Cow
• 2 Tower Bridges
• Arkham Asylum
• Curiosity Rover
• Sealed cases of Series 11 and The LEGO Movie CMFs
• Parisian Restaurant
• Maersk Line Triple E Ship
• Imperial Hotel
• 4 Mechdragons
• all The LEGO Movie sets
• some Easter and Valentine's Day sets
• 2 UCS X-Wings
• a couple Dol Guldur Battles and Misc. Hobbit sets
• 8-10 Hero Factory sets
• Simpson's House
• two sets of STAR WARS Microfighters
• 8 Spider Cycle Chases
• 2 Tumbler Chases
• 2 Battle of Smallville
• 2 Jet Rocka
• 2 Gorilla Strikers
• plus a few more that I forgot...

[Mos_Eisley]

I am not saying he has all the answers, I have no idea who is moving $200k per year, if they are doing it, I have no idea.  He is fairly vocal about things so we know more about what he has and his buying habits and strategies, this is probably the only reason he is influential.

That's because most people who are really successful at something don't need to tell everyone in a public forum exactly how much money they are making.

[Migration]

So, the largest set I've ever built was 10144, it has 1669 pieces, Ed has 6000 sets in his collection.

[Ed Mack]

So, the largest set I've ever built was 10144, it has 1669 pieces, Ed has 6000 sets in his collection.

There are a few on this site(that I know of) that have quite a bit more than me...and with much larger sets as well.

[Guest davewager78]

That's because most people who are really successful at something don't need to tell everyone in a public forum exactly how much money they are making.

 

And indeed must not tell anyone at all if they have a strategy that is working. Having been involved in various other business/investing forums (fora?), you can guess that the best money has been made as soon as you see someone offering a "we will teach you how to make money doing xyz" course

[allen9917]

Big or small, I don't think OP's folio is an efficient use of fund and storage space as there are many new sets you have to sit on for quite long time, unless you bought them for own build (doesn't seem so as we are talking about investment only) or deep discount (can't imagine as most of the sets are exclusives).  why not substitue all the palace cinema for GE will be my question.

 

Generally I prefer big to small sets because I just don't think selling a small set for $5 profit is worth the time and effort of packing, mailing and potential customer service. But if I can buy a $30 set for $15 and sell it later for $50~$60, that's very decent. I don't think anyone on this forum would not take the wolverine chopper or zombie sets.   

[redeemed763]

That's because most people who are really successful at something don't need to tell everyone in a public forum exactly how much money they are making.

Which is fine, either way, he can gloat and you can keep quiet, but I don't know why its hard to understand why people are influenced by him. I haven't been on here much in the past 8 months or so I found him to be a resource in the past because of his access to the lego ordering catalog. I was merely referencing him here because his situation applied to my example very well, he was a large investor who intentionally gave up his access to lower price merchandise because he had felt it was a disadvantage to him to forced to buy the small sets.

 

If the big timers are keeping quiet than they shouldn't care about the influence, it will pass right along to the person who is going to fill that place.

[redeemed763]

Big or small, I don't think OP's folio is an efficient use of fund and storage space as there are many new sets you have to sit on for quite long time, unless you bought them for own build (doesn't seem so as we are talking about investment only) or deep discount (can't imagine as most of the sets are exclusives).  why not substitue all the palace cinema for GE will be my question.

 

Generally I prefer big to small sets because I just don't think selling a small set for $5 profit is worth the time and effort of packing, mailing and potential customer service. But if I can buy a $30 set for $15 and sell it later for $50~$60, that's very decent. I don't think anyone on this forum would not take the wolverine chopper or zombie sets.   

I hope you didn't misread my post, the sets I listed are all the current offerings from TLG at that price point, I don't own most of them, I also own a lot that didn't make that list because they are now retired. I was meant to show what you can get at the higher price, not illustrate my inventory. 

[allen9917]

OK now I get it. But you listed all those sets to prove the point of diversification, which is a bit misleading. If at a particular time one only focus on the few big sets are retiring then that might be a diversification issue.

[Mos_Eisley]

Which is fine, either way, he can gloat and you can keep quiet, but I don't know why its hard to understand why people are influenced by him. I haven't been on here much in the past 8 months or so I found him to be a resource in the past because of his access to the lego ordering catalog. I was merely referencing him here because his situation applied to my example very well, he was a large investor who intentionally gave up his access to lower price merchandise because he had felt it was a disadvantage to him to forced to buy the small sets.

If the big timers are keeping quiet than they shouldn't care about the influence, it will pass right along to the person who is going to fill that place.

Just for the record, I'm not saying I sell more or less than him, it's not really anyone's business but mine. All I'm saying is that just because someone may be vocal about something doesn't mean that their ideas are the best.