10218 - Pet Shop

[tractorboy]

How would they lose money if the poor sellers retire first?  If the Town Hall or UCS B-Wing were poor sellers and not selling, how can replacing them with a potentially better and more popular product be bad for their bottom line?

I'm not saying they would lose money. On the contrary, I was assuming they would be doing this to make money, because that's what companies do.

I'm just trying to figure out their reasoning and thereby understand the whole dynamic better, so that I might profit from it.

 

As has been said above, they've done this with sets before, so it's not really a dramatic change in policy or anything.

Edited October 7, 2014 by tractorboy

[Ed Mack]

Does TLG truly have a philosophy of first released, first retired?  Sure, we can observe that as a general trend, but there are always exceptions. Look at the Star Wars UCS series; R2-D2 was released before B-Wing, yet B-Wing retired first.  We all know why; B-Wing was a poor seller and there was no reason for TLG to keep it in the catalog.

 

It is possible that Town Hall has been a poor seller as well. The boost to TLG's profits is by eliminating the losers and keeping the winners. I don't think TLG is dogmatic about "first in, first out", I think they are dogmatic about "is this set earning the right to continue in our catalog?".

I don't know what their policy is.  History, for the most part, shows that LEGO likes to retire sets in order of launch.  Older sets retire first.  There are exceptions.  Death Star.  UCS B-Wing.  It seems like many exclusives last longer than the regular themed sets.  People figured there was another year left to collect Town Halls and that is what the uproar is about.  Whether or not the Town Hall retires in the next few months is unknown for sure, but many indicators shown to me makes me think it is done.  

 

Similar activity has been shown with the Pet Shop, but because it has been around a year longer, people can believe it is in the process of EOL right now.  When retail activity and stock levels behave the way that they do for a major exclusive like the FB,  SSD, GE, HH and others, you have to be prepared for these sets to retire sooner than later.  A prudent investor will buy a few as a hedge, even if they believe the set will be around for another year.  I know many have limited storage space and budgets, but I think it is important to make exceptions for potentially valuable sets like the HH and Town Hall and figure out a way to buy at least one.  

[redcell]

Let me ask a simple question...If LEGO decides to change their long term philosophy of first released, first retired and started a more random retirement process...maybe poor sellers go first, how would that change the secondary market?

I think people better start realizing that LEGO has a plan and it is being implemented as we type.

 

That would be a huge gift to the secondary market particularly when it comes to more expensive sets (i.e., exclusives and modulars), but the benefits of that gift would largely accrue to resellers with larger bases of capital.  At the moment, most sets follow a relatively predictable lifespan, which makes it easy to decide when is the best time to buy into any given set.  For example, at the moment, it would be a smarter financial decision to buy large quantities of PS rather than large quantities of PC because PS is likely to retire well before PC does.  Because the lifespan of most sets is relatively predictable, it is easy to allocate your capital to those sets that are likely to retire sooner and begin appreciating.  

 

If TLG were to mix s*** up and begin retiring sets on a less predictable schedule, those sets that retired sooner than expected would be more likely to appreciate rapidly simply because there would be fewer of them stored away for resale on the secondary market.  The people who would benefit most would be those resellers with enough capital to stockpile a broader array of sets.  Such a decision by TLG would absolutely screw small time resellers who would be more likely to end up sinking their capital into sets that were perceived as safer bets, but would end up sitting on the market for longer periods of time (i.e., DS).   

[No More Monkeys]

I don't know what their policy is.  History, for the most part, shows that LEGO likes to retire sets in order of launch.  Older sets retire first.  There are exceptions.  Death Star.  UCS B-Wing.  It seems like many exclusives last longer than the regular themed sets.  People figured there was another year left to collect Town Halls and that is what the uproar is about.  Whether or not the Town Hall retires in the next few months is unknown for sure, but many indicators shown to me makes me think it is done.  

 

Similar activity has been shown with the Pet Shop, but because it has been around a year longer, people can believe it is in the process of EOL right now.  When retail activity and stock levels behave the way that they do for a major exclusive like the FB,  SSD, GE, HH and others, you have to be prepared for these sets to retire sooner than later.  A prudent investor will buy a few as a hedge, even if they believe the set will be around for another year.  I know many have limited storage space and budgets, but I think it is important to make exceptions for potentially valuable sets like the HH and Town Hall and figure out a way to buy at least one.  

But do keep in mind that GE was some time ago in similar situation (end of 2012?) - it was showing all the right signs, yet came back eventually. PS and TH still feel like a gamble knowing GE history.

[Ed Mack]

That would be a huge gift to the secondary market particularly when it comes to more expensive sets (i.e., exclusives and modulars), but the benefits of that gift would largely accrue to resellers with larger bases of capital.  At the moment, most sets follow a relatively predictable lifespan, which makes it easy to decide when is the best time to buy into any given set.  For example, at the moment, it would be a smarter financial decision to buy large quantities of PS rather than large quantities of PC because PS is likely to retire well before PC does.  Because the lifespan of most sets is relatively predictable, it is easy to allocate your capital to those sets that are likely to retire sooner and begin appreciating.  

 

If TLG were to mix s*** up and begin retiring sets on a less predictable schedule, those sets that retired sooner than expected would be more likely to appreciate rapidly simply because there would be fewer of them stored away for resale on the secondary market.  The people who would benefit most would be those resellers with enough capital to stockpile a broader array of sets.  Such a decision by TLG would absolutely screw small time resellers who would be more likely to end up sinking their capital into sets that were perceived as safer bets, but would end up sitting on the market for longer periods of time (i.e., DS).   

Yes, this is my feeling exactly.  It will help people with the capital to buy quickly(...and possibly sit on it) and hurt the small reseller with limited means, who waits these things out.  It could be very advantageous to flipping though, if the right sets are chosen.  

[Ed Mack]

But do keep in mind that GE was some time ago in similar situation (end of 2012?) - it was showing all the right signs, yet came back eventually. PS and TH still feel like a gamble knowing GE history.

The GE is still hanging on.  Might be another exception to the rule.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

@Ed.... I can only agree with your comments and it's obvious to me that TLG are planning a cunning move.  I'd had a gut feeling about the Pet Shop going first but, the "unretirement" of the Winter Village Market came as a big shock to me.  To cap it all, I've had my purchasing amounts restricted with one of my smallest ever orders where, on the other hand, they let me order Mars Rovers by the "3E load" without issue.

 

If I'm right about the PS, my next 2p/2

[RunnersDad]

I like both the Pet Shop and Town Hall, as both short and long term investments so I am not against buying now even in in the event that I end up holding for a while. That said, reading between the lines of the many posts in this thread is it fair to say that unless TLG is throwing us a curveball it is likely that the Pet Shop has finally reached EOL?

[biniou]

Ok so on the one side, you guys say that lego may change its plan to confuse investors. Why not.

But I'm more tempted to think that it will not cover the profits they could make by still having a best-seller set in their catalog.

 

"Oh, the Palace cinema sells well ! let's stop it, so it will confuse investors ! Yeah ! ... what ? no more profits if we do not produce this best seller anymore ? Ohhhh damned... too bad, but ok, investors that sell 30 sets per month on ebay are our priority ! yeeha !"

 

I don't think so...

 

(...) figure out a way to buy at least one.  

 

I try to never buy just one set (except if it's a very expensive set, like the SSD or the DS), because:

- as a small investor, with x2 sets instead of x1 set (not that much money for investment), you will double the money you'll earn;

- as a builder, you're always tempted to open a set you own. Building one and keeping one other set sealed can make you, some years later, have your opened set for free.

Edited October 7, 2014 by biniou

[Ed Mack]

PS @ Amazon.

[biking_tiger]

PS @ Amazon.

 

Expected ship on October 10. I placed my order.

[Zurno]

It was interesting putting rough US availability of sets into an excel spreadsheet to compare.  If the three oldest were to retire it would put things back in line with the time period between Oct 2007 to Feb 2012 for amount of sets available in the line.  Also, the only "Modular" to retire out of order was the one that was released as part of the Factory line.

http://bricksafe.com/files/zurno/Forums/Modular%20Availability.xlsx

[Ed Mack]

It was interesting putting rough US availability of sets into an excel spreadsheet to compare.  If the three oldest were to retire it would put things back in line with the time period between Oct 2007 to Feb 2012 for amount of sets available in the line.  Also, the only "Modular" to retire out of order was the one that was released as part of the Factory line.

http://bricksafe.com/files/zurno/Forums/Modular%20Availability.xlsx

Some argue that Market Street is not even a Modular and I can't say that I disagree.  All things being equal, I would have expected the Town Hall to be around another year...the Pet Shop, maybe not.  As of right now, I don't think all things are equal.

[biniou]

It was interesting putting rough US availability of sets into an excel spreadsheet to compare.  If the three oldest were to retire it would put things back in line with the time period between Oct 2007 to Feb 2012 for amount of sets available in the line.  Also, the only "Modular" to retire out of order was the one that was released as part of the Factory line.

http://bricksafe.com/files/zurno/Forums/Modular%20Availability.xlsx

Thanks ! That's a more detailed spreadsheet than mine. Although market street is a bit "special", it's interesting to have it inside.

 

Here is another. more visual I think. I'll incorporate market street and haunted house when GE (and PS ? and PS ?) will be retired for sure. I'll use yours for an update of mine if you're ok (edit: I take your "like this" for a "ok", so thanks ).

 

 

 

 

Some argue that Market Street is not even a Modular and I can't say that I disagree.  All things being equal, I would have expected the Town Hall to be around another year...the Pet Shop, maybe not.  As of right now, I don't think all things are equal.

 

Absolutely, but it's more a modular than the HH.

It's interesting enough to incoporate it because, modular or not, it's a buillding designed for AFOLs. But it has to be put apart.

Edited October 7, 2014 by biniou

[Ed Mack]

Thanks ! That's a more detailed spreadsheet than mine. Although market street is a bit "special", it's interesting to have it inside.

 

Here is another. more visual I think. I'll incorporate market street and haunted house when GE (and PS ? and PS ?) will be retired for sure. I'll use yours for an update of mine if you're ok (edit: I take your "like this" for a "ok", so thanks ).

 

 

 

 

 

Absolutely, but it's more a modular than the HH.

It's interesting enough to incoporate it because, modular or not, it's a buillding designed for AFOLs. But it has to be put apart.

I never considered the HH a Modular.  It might be Modular scale, but to me it was a stand alone set.  

[fuzzy_bricks]

Some argue that Market Street is not even a Modular and I can't say that I disagree.  All things being equal, I would have expected the Town Hall to be around another year...the Pet Shop, maybe not.  As of right now, I don't think all things are equal.

Paging Trekgate....more clues for you.

[biking_tiger]

...and at least one Ebay listing has it as "retired". Seriously.

[33Lego]

It looks dangerous to invest in TH/PS now.

 

You can hold it for another one year of two ...

[Crustybeaver]

...and at least one Ebay listing has it as "retired". Seriously.

 

Let's not speak too irresponsibly of that presumptuous twit as they are most likely a member of this forum. 

[RunnersDad]

For what it's worth, and I know probably not much, I spoke with the Manager at my local Lego store during lunch. She indicated that within the past week panic buying has depleted their entire inventory of Town Hall sets after having as many as 30 in stock beginning of last week. She has been told that they will be getting more TH's soon as the holidays approach and that their current inventory of Pet Shops could be the last they receive as the set might be EOL.

[Crustybeaver]

It looks dangerous to invest in TH/PS now.

 

You can hold it for another one year of two ...

 

And then another one or two years on from that for the retirement price to rise to an acceptable selling point. 

[Crustybeaver]

For what it's worth, and I know probably not much, I spoke with the Manager at my local Lego store during lunch. She indicated that within the past week panic buying has depleted their entire inventory of Town Hall sets after having as many as 30 in stock beginning of last week. She has been told that they will be getting more TH's soon as the holidays approach and that their current inventory of Pet Shops could be the last they receive as the set might be EOL.

 

I value the opinions of Lego staff, that is until they all contradict each other. So we've had a store manager tell us PS is about to cease production, the spotty faced weekend boy tell us the TH is done and of course the dozens of other managers and store employees who predicted that the GE is on it's last legs. So what do you believe? Not the view of a Lego shop employee, that's for sure.

[biking_tiger]

Not trying to step on digital toes or speak irresponsibly, I'm just trying to understand something:

 

Several recently sold Pet Shops at US eBay have gone for just a tad over MSRP with Free shipping. One recent auction just sold for just $160 with free shipping.

 

With fees, etc., a seller is grossing less than MSRP. I understand there are discounts, but how cheap could one expect to get a Pet Shop even with the best of discounts?

[hepcatpunk]

Not trying to step on digital toes or speak irresponsibly, I'm just trying to understand something:

 

Several recently sold Pet Shops at US eBay have gone for just a tad over MSRP with Free shipping. One recent auction just sold for just $160 with free shipping.

 

With fees, etc., a seller is grossing less than MSRP. I understand there are discounts, but how cheap could one expect to get a Pet Shop even with the best of discounts?

 

Not all sellers can do math, nor all sets acquired through honest means.. 

[trekgate502]

Paging Trekgate....more clues for you.

 

 

Thank you fuzzy_bricks!