10218 - Pet Shop

[Sandwraith]

Still available at Walmart.ca up here in Canada for any who feel it isn't coming back or whatnot.

[slobey]

Same with my order. I received an email today that it has just shipped but still showing OoS till 20 march on website

[Neosphinx]

Talked to 3 different stores all 3 said the same thing that they don't expect any more in. I know may not mean anything but I didn't want to chance it and skipped double points when I grabbed another one. All codes were still 03/05. Looking for one more to build myself then on to Palace Cinema

Too bad you didn't ask for PC.

[Alucard1982]

3 of mine also shipped today after sitting in the warehouse since Tuesday. 

[JM123]

I called Lego and played the ignorant customer that wants to buy a PS in a physical store. They said that the status of the PS was changed to a purely exclusive, only available at LEGO Shop at Home and will not come back in physical stores. She furthermore said that this set will be available for quite a while and will be back available very soon. For what its worth..

 

My gut feeling tells me that this set is going nowhere for a while. Investors are indeed disrupted by the fact that the presence at retailers is indeed gone, but this doesn't mean Lego is going to discontinue it. I think it just a nice experiment from Lego to track down the big investors and this way they can map how the reseller market is affected by such a 'availability' decision.

Edited March 13, 2015 by JM123

[diablo2112]

Personally, I don't think TLG is making distribution decisions for PS soley to mess with resellers. Far more important is shelf space, sales trends, total number of new sets, and other factors like general logistics.

Regardless, having PS only available at SAH is good news for resellers, it is an effective constraint on supply.

[cladner]

Regardless, having PS only available at SAH is good news for resellers, it is an effective constraint on supply.

unless you are banned from buying at shop at home.

also it will be difficult to build up stock at the end of life if the only retailer selling still is LEGO Shop at Home.

this will favor the turtle strategy of slow steady accumulation.

 

lego store in west farms mall in west hartford CT had 8 PS sitting on the shelf yesterday.

Edited March 13, 2015 by cladner

[diablo2112]

 

this will favor the turtle strategy of slow steady accumulation.

 

 

Indeed.  Which reminds me, time to order another PR from Amazon....   And, DO just showed up for order at MSRP on Amazon as well.

[Neosphinx]

I called Lego and played the ignorant customer that wants to buy a PS in a physical store. They said that the status of the PS was changed to a purely exclusive, only available at LEGO Shop at Home and will not come back in physical stores. She furthermore said that this set will be available for quite a while and will be back available very soon. For what its worth..

 

My gut feeling tells me that this set is going nowhere for a while. Investors are indeed disrupted by the fact that the presence at retailers is indeed gone, but this doesn't mean Lego is going to discontinue it. I think it just a nice experiment from Lego to track down the big investors and this way they can map how the reseller market is affected by such a 'availability' decision.

What that employee says, I had in mind. Would be much more lucrative for LEGO to put MBS only available  via LEGO Shop at Home

[bricketycricket]

What that employee says, I had in mind. Would be much more lucrative for LEGO to put MBS only available  via LEGO Shop at Home

More lucrative for them to sell it in fewer places? You're going to have to explain that one to me

[toycrazedchris]

Regardless, having PS only available at SAH is good news for resellers, it is an effective constraint on supply.

 

One person reports what a Lego employee thinks and now this is "news". Gotta love this place.

[Flippingbricks]

I haven't been here long but from what I gather information misinformation ect on availability to save a lot headache just grab the sets you want to invest in in enough time that availability isn't a problem. Pet shop may or may not be on its way out but When I purchased mine I figured rather be safe than sorry since this is a set I really want to set aside. Sometimes I think we get caught up in things that really have a simple solution. Your probably not going time every EOL set perfectly or get every winner. Make your choices and work on your plan to get your end amount you want

[hxckid88]

I haven't been here long but from what I gather information misinformation ect on availability to save a lot headache just grab the sets you want to invest in in enough time that availability isn't a problem. Pet shop may or may not be on its way out but When I purchased mine I figured rather be safe than sorry since this is a set I really want to set aside. Sometimes I think we get caught up in things that really have a simple solution. Your probably not going time every EOL set perfectly or get every winner. Make your choices and work on your plan to get your end amount you want

emazers?!?! You changed your username and learned how to use a period. All in one day. Impressive.

[stephen_rockefeller]

emazers?!?! You changed your username and learned how to use a period. All in one day. Impressive.

The irony in this comment is impressive......

[Crustybeaver]

this will favor the turtle strategy of slow steady accumulation.

 

People in the loop call this the Emazer Strategy 

[diablo2112]

One person reports what a Lego employee thinks and now this is "news". Gotta love this place.

 

Well, that's a bit harsh.  I think it's fair to comment on a possible development that only SAH will carry a particular set, with no other outlet for sale.  That does have implications for investment.   I humbly ask your forgiveness for saying "news" instead of "possible news".   I'm pretty sure if you read my statement in context, I was simply adding to the train of discussion and in no-way endorsed the original statement as given-fact.  Folks here are plenty smart, I'm pretty sure they understand the colloquial use of aphorisms.  

Edited March 13, 2015 by diablo2112

[toycrazedchris]

Well, that's a bit harsh.  I think it's fair to comment on a possible development that only SAH will carry a particular set, with no other outlet for sale.  That does have implications for investment.   I humbly ask your forgiveness for saying "news" instead of "possible news".   I'm pretty sure if you read my statement in context, I was simply adding to the train of discussion and in no-way endorsed the original statement as given-fact.  Folks here are plenty smart, I'm pretty sure they understand the colloquial use of aphorisms.  

 

 

Sorry, not picking on you, just laughing out loud at how it goes around here on a daily basis. This type of info has been posted before (Lego online-only exclusives) and I certainly think it is possible, but I didn't think it was news and especially didn't think it was good news. I think most people around here would consider "retired" tag or at least "sold out" good news but not eternal online availability at MSRP, no matter what the source.

[diablo2112]

Sorry, not picking on you, just laughing out loud at how it goes around here on a daily basis. This type of info has been posted before (Lego online-only exclusives) and I certainly think it is possible, but I didn't think it was news and especially didn't think it was good news. I think most people around here would consider "retired" tag or at least "sold out" good news but not eternal online availability at MSRP, no matter what the source.

 

Fair points.  My reasoning is, if TLG is going to continue to sell a set, the harder that set is to obtain, the less overall supply we'll have at eventual EOL, and I'm happy with that.  In this particular case, I've got a dozen PS in my inventory, and while I'll certainly pickup a few more prior to EOL, if those sets are much harder to obtain, I think that works in favor of those of us who built up a slow and steady supply.  Heck, I've already got 6 PR and 3 DO in my inventory.

[xeeeej]

Fair points.  My reasoning is, if TLG is going to continue to sell a set, the harder that set is to obtain, the less overall supply we'll have at eventual EOL, and I'm happy with that.  In this particular case, I've got a dozen PS in my inventory, and while I'll certainly pickup a few more prior to EOL, if those sets are much harder to obtain, I think that works in favor of those of us who built up a slow and steady supply.  Heck, I've already got 6 PR and 3 DO in my inventory.

It's not always (ever?) better to buy early.

http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/13117-cagr-discussion-on-when-to-buysell/?hl=cagr

[Val-E]

Ship date pushed back to 24th March for EU and I wonder what will happen to that when double points starts.

[Flippingbricks]

It's not always (ever?) better to buy early.

http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/13117-cagr-discussion-on-when-to-buysell/?hl=cagr

Great read. Not to steer off subject but your way do you always get the desired amount of a set you want and how close do you push your acquisition time to expected EOL date year months weeks or when they disappear. Not trying be nosey but the post was very interesting

[xeeeej]

Great read. Not to steer off subject but your way do you always get the desired amount of a set you want and how close do you push your acquisition time to expected EOL date year months weeks or when they disappear. Not trying be nosey but the post was very interesting

I'm hoping to have that thread merged/revived.  So we can continue that discussion there if/when that happens.  Otherwise, I will PM you.

[diablo2112]

It's not always (ever?) better to buy early.

http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/13117-cagr-discussion-on-when-to-buysell/?hl=cagr

 

I understand the math for CAGR, very, very well.  The ideal situation would be to buy your limit of a set at MSRP or better (e.***., heavily discounted) on the day it goes EOL.  This shortens the time component in the denominator of a CAGR calculation, increasing the value.  This strategy also increases the price differential in the numerator, and also does wonders for the CAGR.  Also really, really good for your CAGR would be to sell those sets the next day or week when they experience there first, post-EOL bump.  You'll find a CAGR of thousands of percent that way.  

 

The flaw in CAGR is that it is essentially a value over time metric (a derivative, in Calculus terms), not an absolute dollar metric.  Derivatives can be tricky and can mislead.   I'd rather triple a $200 set in 24 months for $400 profit (e.***. TH) than sell that same TH a week after EOL for $100 profit, even though CAGR is much, much higher in the later case than the former.  Why?  My time and effort.  And the fact we don't have great EOL sets coming available every week, more like a few/year.

 

I factor in my active time to manage my portfolio (buying, selling, etc).  I'd rather obtain sets relatively easily and ban-free (e.***., off Amazon Prime at MSRP with free shipping/no tax) and then just hold long enough that exclusives experience a nice value increase.  

 

Clearly, there's point in the CAGR curve where you'd be better off selling and re-buying the next-to-retire exclusve.  To cite a relevant, current example, mathematically, it may be the time to clear out your TH inventory and re-invest in PS.  Or perhaps, wait until you think PS is going to retire, then sell-off all your TH and roll it over into PS.  Other problems are 1) predicting future value; 2) finding ways to obtain your goal number of sets at MSRP or below, and 3) finding enough buyers quickly when you need to roll-over sets.  None of these issues are trivial, even though such strategy maximizes CAGR.  

 

I'm happy with buy and hold, with relatively little hassle on the buy end, and with steady sales on the sell end, via eBay and Craigs list.  YMMV.

Edited March 13, 2015 by diablo2112

[ED-209]

I haven't been here long but from what I gather information misinformation ect on availability to save a lot headache just grab the sets you want to invest in in enough time that availability isn't a problem. Pet shop may or may not be on its way out but When I purchased mine I figured rather be safe than sorry since this is a set I really want to set aside. Sometimes I think we get caught up in things that really have a simple solution. Your probably not going time every EOL set perfectly or get every winner. Make your choices and work on your plan to get your end amount you want

In theory, this works.

But it seems there is only finite capital and so many sets to buy.

We all love the rush of getting that last set on the shelf etc... when we know it is EOL.

In my case anyway. It makes me excite

[stephen_rockefeller]

We all love the rush of getting that last set on the shelf etc... when we know it is EOL.

I don't.