10218 - Pet Shop

[CNH1974]

FIre Brigade.

 

Yes I know, terrible isn't it. It's only gone up 150% in a year. 

[biniou]

I just say that FB performed not as well as the CC and the GG.

And the GG not as well as the CC.

 

IMHO the FB is the first set to break the combo of the lego-modulars-investment-huge-winners:

CC => x8 RRP (x9 next year ?)

GG => x6 RRP (x7 next year ?)

FB => x2 RRP (x2.5 or x3 next year ?) => highly unlikely to see it go up to x6 or x7 RRP within the next 2 or 3 years, like the previous modulars did.

 

Maybe the GE and the PS will not triple in value within the next 3 years, or maybe they will like the FB seems to, I really don't know.

But what I'm confident in, is that they will not go up to x8 (or even x6) RRP.

 

So if I had to name a combo breaker among the modular line, I would point at the FB (though it's a great investment for the guys who were able to get some at RRP). That's my reply to valenciaeric who was asking which modular would be less interesting than the previous ones.

Edited March 10, 2015 by biniou

[makr]

Yes I know, terrible isn't it. It's only gone up 150% in a year. 

 

150% in a year? Isn't it more like 100% since EOL?

[CNH1974]

150% in a year? Isn't it more like 100% since EOL?

 

No, top of the range is

[makr]

No, top of the range is

Edited March 10, 2015 by makromizer

[CNH1974]

Hehe

If my maths is correct, and it is not always, a 100% increase is a doubling of price,

[Ed Mack]

Comparing performance over the short term of retired sets doesn't really work because sets behave differently now. Good sets pop immediately and then seem to level off for a while followed by slow growth. Older sets would increase more steadily for a longer time. I would attribute that to the same thing that happened with 41999. Investors buy them up and push the price up. Your average buyer doesn't immediately know that they missed their chance for a Town Hall or R2 at retail so they don't have a lot of reason to buy as soon as something sells out.

This is truth. The growth of most sets, even the best, is usually slow and steady, even with an initial bump on some special sets.  It may take years(more than 2) for a set to hit some of the values you see today.  

[makr]

Hehe

If my maths is correct, and it is not always, a 100% increase is a doubling of price,

Edited March 10, 2015 by makromizer

[ED-209]

I just say that FB performed not as well as the CC and the GG.

And the GG not as well as the CC.

IMHO the FB is the first set to break the combo of the lego-modulars-investment-huge-winners:

CC => x8 RRP (x9 next year ?)

GG => x6 RRP (x7 next year ?)

FB => x2 RRP (x2.5 or x3 next year ?) => highly unlikely to see it go up to x6 or x7 RRP within the next 2 or 3 years, like the previous modulars did.

Maybe the GE and the PS will not triple in value within the next 3 years, or maybe they will like the FB seems to, I really don't know.

But what I'm confident in, is that they will not go up to x8 (or even x6) RRP.

So if I had to name a combo breaker among the modular line, I would point at the FB (though it's a great investment for the guys who were able to get some at RRP). That's my reply to valenciaeric who was asking which modular would be less interesting than the previous ones.

I'm only a noob at investing in Lego, but 100% appreciation in 12-18 months is a pretty freaking good return on your money. You would be very lucky to make that in shares, or in your own business, which would take up a lot of your time. Spending Xxxx dollars on a modular, stashing it away and doubling your money in less than two years with little effort is pretty awesome.

4, 5, 7, 8 xRRP, you greedy bastards! ;p

Returns are smaller these days, but still greatly outstrip other common investments.

It's all relative.

4x RRP dreamers with GG/CC on the brain could be the reason that GE and FB have risen so much so far (even though at a slower rate than 'classic' modulars), as most of the stock is still sitting in basements creating low supply to fuel the appreciation to date. Not a problem as long as there is more demand than supply. Then again, one could speculate that most of the buyers of these sets atm (GE/TH) are resellers themselves, creating a possible Ponzi style scenario.

[hxckid88]

I'm only a noob at investing in Lego, but 100% appreciation in 12-18 months is a pretty freaking good return on your money. You would be very lucky to make that in shares, or in your own business, which would take up a lot of your time. Spending Xxxx dollars on a modular, stashing it away and doubling your money in less than two years with little effort is pretty awesome.

4, 5, 7, 8 xRRP, you greedy bastards! ;p

Returns are smaller these days, but still greatly outstrip other common investments.

It's all relative.

4x RRP dreamers with GG/CC on the brain could be the reason that GE and FB have risen so much so far (even though at a slower rate than 'classic' modulars), as most of the stock is still sitting in basements creating low supply to fuel the appreciation to date. Not a problem as long as there is more demand than supply. Then again, one could speculate that most of the buyers of these sets atm (GE/TH) are resellers themselves, creating a possible Ponzi style scenario.

The little effort part is where you lost me.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Brickpicker mobile app

Edited March 10, 2015 by hxckid88

[CNH1974]

Ok, I'm just a bit surprised by those numbers. I get the 100 GBP in DEC 2013 around EOL, but isn't 250 GBP by DEC 2014 quite steep? Even today, they should easily be available for less than that.

I would say the BP average for Feb will be about 210-220. The Range is approx 199-260. I sold one for

[CNH1974]

The little effort part is where you lost me.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Brickpicker mobile app

The little effort is carrying it where you are going to stash it for however many years you plan to keep it. :)

[ED-209]

The little effort part is where you lost me.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Brickpicker mobile app

Depends how much money you are investing in modulars.

Unless you live in a shoebox, you can easily use a wardrobe to stash away 20 or 30 sets.

Just buy and stash. Wait 24 months and then sell. That's 20-30 transactions.

Much easier than running a fulltime business or spending hours on the pc shorting stocks, or flipping tens or even hundreds of friends sets a month for 15% net profits.

Am I the only one who thinks this?

[bricketycricket]

You're not the only one. I think the point being made is that selling 10, 20, 30, or however many sets you're holding is non-trivial and does take some effort.

[ED-209]

The little effort is carrying it where you are going to stash it for however many years you plan to keep it.

I don't know what you are trying to say. Why would you need to carry it? You pick it up from the mall or pick it up from the local post office.

[ED-209]

You're not the only one. I think the point being made is that selling 10, 20, 30, or however many sets you're holding is non-trivial and does take some effort.

selling one item for double your initial investment, say a 100 dollar set that sells for 200.

How many man hours would go into buying, stashing and dealing with customers leading up to a sale?

[speedsausage]

Depends how much money you are investing in modulars.

Unless you live in a shoebox, you can easily use a wardrobe to stash away 20 or 30 sets.

Just buy and stash. Wait 24 months and then sell. That's 20-30 transactions.

Much easier than running a fulltime business or spending hours on the pc shorting stocks, or flipping tens or even hundreds of friends sets a month for 15% net profits.

Am I the only one who thinks this?

I think where hxckid88 was going with this is it not as easy as saying the word "sell". You need to learn how to use your decided marketplace, set up your listings, deal with customers (ebay, Craigslist etc.), deal with any scams or legit shipping issues. Then do your taxes at the end of the year... etc. etc. For someone like myself this is all new to me, and I can definitely say I've put quite a bit effort in research and asking members questions on here alone.

[ED-209]

Like I said, I'm new to this.

However, I have sold a fair few used Honda and Subaru performance parts by buying and parting out wrecks. These were all cash or money transfer transactions, and were done using car forum and gumtree ads, which are free of any fees and charges. Many time wasters, yes, but good profits. And the amount at which it was done was less than 20k turnover a year, so no need to declare to the tax office. I doubt my total initial lego investment will be more than that.

Lego storing and selling definitely seems a lot easier IMO than rolling around the ground of a garage stripping cars, then selling the parts, ya lazy gits :P

Edited March 11, 2015 by mike_eldorado

[hxckid88]

I think where hxckid88 was going with this is it not as easy as saying the word "sell". You need to learn how to use your decided marketplace, set up your listings, deal with customers (ebay, Craigslist etc.), deal with any scams or legit shipping issues. Then do your taxes at the end of the year... etc. etc. For someone like myself this is all new to me, and I can definitely say I've put quite a bit effort in research and asking members questions on here alone.

This was what I meant by my statement.

[jdmpartz]

Depends how much money you are investing in modulars.

Unless you live in a shoebox, you can easily use a wardrobe to stash away 20 or 30 sets.

Just buy and stash. Wait 24 months and then sell. That's 20-30 transactions.

Much easier than running a fulltime business or spending hours on the pc shorting stocks, or flipping tens or even hundreds of friends sets a month for 15% net profits.

Am I the only one who thinks this?

 

Me and you could have some beers and talk for hours.  

[GhostDad]

Keep those stacks down to 10 - 12 sets each or you'll have some flattened modulars at the bottom to deal with in 24 months.  Also note that a large cat weighs about as much as two GE's, so keep the stack a bit on the short side if the top set will be serving as a feline lookout tower.  Had to learn all this the hard way.  Can't believe Lego doesn't put helpful warnings like this in place of the useless "Don't feed pieces of your Fire Brigade to any child three years of age or less"...

[Yinchuan]

Keep those stacks down to 10 - 12 sets each or you'll have some flattened modulars at the bottom to deal with in 24 months. Also note that a large cat weighs about as much as two GE's, so keep the stack a bit on the short side if the top set will be serving as a feline lookout tower. Had to learn all this the hard way. Can't believe Lego doesn't put helpful warnings like this in place of the useless "Don't feed pieces of your Fire Brigade to any child three years of age or less"...

I was given the sage advice of keeping the boxes vertical without stacking, which does make sense regarding keeping the edges for bowing in if not stacked perfectly, but obviously limits space. But it might create a more stable structure for the cat...

[Heart Juggler]

Just spoke to Lego at home about availability. They said they are not going to be restocking.

[Flippingbricks]

Talked to 3 different stores all 3 said the same thing that they don't expect any more in. I know may not mean anything but I didn't want to chance it and skipped double points when I grabbed another one. All codes were still 03/05. Looking for one more to build myself then on to Palace Cinema

[basler]

One on its way to me which i have ordered in feb even if it s still backordered till 20thmarch in europe. Got the same situation with hh last autumn. Sign?