10218 - Pet Shop

[diablo2112]

The Modular Buildings are the Blue-Chip stocks of Lego Investment.  Assured profit and steady growth.  If you want to see what Pet Shop will do, just track Fire Brigade and Grand Emporium.  All of these were hoarded in the post-CC/GG era when investors saw these as investment vehicles.  14 months out, FB is now an ~ $400 sale, while  5 months after EOL, GE has roughly doubled in value to $300.  I would expect PS to follow a very similar path, as will PC.  

 

Given that, I'd buy the one much closer to retirement, PS.   Only if you think PC may have an unexpected, early retirement would I favor PC over PS at this point in time.  Do note, TH had exactly that - an early, unexpected retirement, and prices on TH have risen much more than other recent modulars.   Risk/reward, like all things.  With that said, I personally don't think PC goes before PS, and my current procurement has been roughly 2:1, buying 2 PS for every PC I'm acquiring at this stage.  

Edited March 9, 2015 by diablo2112

[stephen_rockefeller]

I can't argue with your logic but with each modular more and more hoarding is taking place which I'm certain has some affect on secondary market prices.

[bricketycricket]

I can't argue with your logic but with each modular more and more hoarding is taking place which I'm certain has some affect on secondary market prices.

The demand does seem to be increasing alongside the supply, thus far at least. But it's true that it shouldn't be assumed that these current trends will continue indefinitely.

[Darth_Raichu]

I can't argue with your logic but with each modular more and more hoarding is taking place which I'm certain has some affect on secondary market prices.

Wow. I thought you were in the "everything is rosy buy as many modular as you can" camp.  When did reality sink in ?

[diablo2112]

I can't argue with your logic but with each modular more and more hoarding is taking place which I'm certain has some affect on secondary market prices.

 

Absolutely, more and more resellers have found the modular line.  That said, and here's what interesting, each retired modular from GG on has done BETTER at each stage of its lifecycle.   Here's where the modulars sat 5 months and 14 months after EOL:

 

         5 mo.   14 mo.

GG:  $190, $280

FB:   $250, $400

GE:   $300,  ******/a

TH:   $500,  ******/a

 

I agree 100% more folks are hoarding, yet we're seeing better results.  I personally think this is from 2 causes:  more buyers and AFOL in general (thank you, Lego Movie!), and sales to recent investors.  I don't see any reason PS and PC won't follow the general trend of FB/GE.  They won't be another TH, unless TLC pulls the plug on PC early.

Edited March 9, 2015 by diablo2112

[BrickDesign]

I'm new to Lego investing, or Brickinvesting if you like. I'm wondering, given that I have a fair amount of cash to spend, what would be an advisable amount of Pet Shop's to buy? Is it wise to buy as much as you can?  :/

[stephen_rockefeller]

Wow. I thought you were in the "everything is rosy buy as many modular as you can" camp.  When did reality sink in ?

You have me confused with someone else. I only have a small handful of each modular. Star Wars sets on the other hand.......

[stephen_rockefeller]

Absolutely, more and more resellers have found the modular line.  That said, and here's what interesting, each retired modular from GG on has done BETTER at each stage of its lifecycle.   Here's where the modulars sat 5 months and 14 months after EOL:

 

         5 mo.   14 mo.

GG:  $190, $280

FB:   $250, $400

GE:   $300,  n/a

TH:   $500,  n/a

 

I agree 100% more folks are hoarding, yet we're seeing better results.  I personally think this is from 2 causes:  more buyers and AFOL in general (thank you, Lego Movie!), and sales to recent investors.  I don't see any reason PS and PC won't follow the general trend of FB/GE.  They won't be another TH, unless TLC pulls the plug on PC early.

Not arguing with your numbers but where did you get them? Personal observation dating all the way back to the GG?

[gregpj]

You have me confused with someone else. I only have a small handful of each modular. Star Wars sets on the other hand.......

 

You've also been especially cheery lately, so either someone switched places with you or you're liking that the Daily Discussion thread is where this type of post is heading.

 

The Pet Shop is a neat building, but it doesn't have the "flash" of the ones that come after it. People will have to decide for itself if that's a good or bad thing but I think it's a good thing. So many people "just want regular lego bricks" that it's (relative) simple facade may appeal to more people.

[diablo2112]

I'm new to Lego investing, or Brickinvesting if you like. I'm wondering, given that I have a fair amount of cash to spend, what would be an advisable amount of Pet Shop's to buy? Is it wise to buy as much as you can?  :/

 

That's a tough question to answer, only you can decide your situation.   There's about a dozen factors that influence your question, including risk tolerance, investment timeframe, ability to sell, storage space, overall inventory goals, total $$$ available, etc.   I like diversity.  My main investment goals are 2 fold: 1) buy exclusives closer to EOL, and select based on future appreciation potential, and 2) find heavily discounted sets locally, and short-term hold (usually, till Xmas) and flip for reasonable gains.  I wouldn't have more than 10% of my capital tied up in a single set.  However, if I was going to reduce to a small number of sets to purchase, PS would be among them (along with Tumbler, Red Five, PC, MkII, TB, EEE, and perhaps a few other exclusives like T1).  YMMV.

[diablo2112]

Not arguing with your numbers but where did you get them? Personal observation dating all the way back to the GG?

 

Yes, I've followed eBay auctions on these back to GG days, though I wasn't investing much then.  

[stephen_rockefeller]

You've also been especially cheery lately, so either someone switched places with you or you're liking that the Daily Discussion thread is where this type of post is heading.

The Pet Shop is a neat building, but it doesn't have the "flash" of the ones that come after it. People will have to decide for itself if that's a good or bad thing but I think it's a good thing. So many people "just want regular lego bricks" that it's (relative) simple facade may appeal to more people.

There was a brief(ish) moment that some members were getting under my skin but I've done a lot of thinking and realized how awesome this entire community is and my attitude was not reflective of how I feel about this forum and it's members. I'm good now!

[Mos_Eisley]

Comparing performance over the short term of retired sets doesn't really work because sets behave differently now. Good sets pop immediately and then seem to level off for a while followed by slow growth. Older sets would increase more steadily for a longer time. I would attribute that to the same thing that happened with 41999. Investors buy them up and push the price up. Your average buyer doesn't immediately know that they missed their chance for a Town Hall or R2 at retail so they don't have a lot of reason to buy as soon as something sells out.

[speedsausage]

I can't argue with your logic but with each modular more and more hoarding is taking place which I'm certain has some affect on secondary market prices.

I think another contributor to this is the first line of themes are generally less invested in due to the unknown factor. When it performs well, more people jump on board later on down the line which brings more inventory to the secondary market. A recent example would be the mixels line.

[Ciglione]

I think another contributor to this is the first line of themes are generally less invested in due to the unknown factor. When it performs well, more people jump on board later on down the line which brings more inventory to the secondary market. A recent example would be the mixels line.

 

Yeah... many people first want to watch the cat coming down from the tree and have cold water fear before they jump in and invest in a new theme.

[Val-E]

Another point is that the big post EOL bump can be fed by resellers who didn

[hxckid88]

Another point is that the big post EOL bump can be fed by resellers who didn

[BrickDesign]

@diablo2112

Many thanks for that. I'll give numbers a little more thought. I was thinking 3, possibly 5, Pet Shop's. I would think this could suggest a decent profit.

[BrickDesign]

I should probably be more specific. "I would think this could suggest a decent profit" over a course of three years+.

[CNH1974]

Another point is that the big post EOL bump can be fed by resellers who didn

[GhostDad]

I've been pleasantly surprised by the performance of modulars lately, and GE is my single biggest investment (well, after DS... sigh).  But at some point, there must be diminishing returns from a strategy that breaks down to 'buy $150 Lego sets at MSRP and sell them on eBay for double your money one year later'.  That's just too easy not to end up being overexploited.

[Neosphinx]

Yeah... many people first want to watch the cat coming down from the tree and have cold water fear before they jump in and invest in a new theme.

"watch the cat coming from the tree"? "Have cold water fear?" ROFLMAO

You see how colorful our language can be

 

Ot: ordered another PS from LEGO Shop at Home. Something I usually avoid. I feel moistness for this set.

[Val-E]

At some time or another there will be a modular that does not perform like previous ones did - might not be PS as, for whatever reason, it has become hard to find outside Lego channels so the possibilities of hoarding it now are well reduced and eBay prices are creeping up. The same thing happened with GE and look how it is performing.

 

I am thinking that if PC does get another year or two it could be the one that disappoints people but it also depends on how many new AFOL

[biniou]

At some time or another there will be a modular that does not perform like previous ones did

FIre Brigade.

[Val-E]

As it becomes more difficult to obtain big discounts on the newer modulars, buy in Price becomes higher and the time needed to double becomes longer - if FB was part of the no discount policy it wouldn