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Posted
4 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Which realistically is about $290 or about 5% gains over retail + tax.

I hate math!

Well, if you want to be Mr. Smarty Pants Reality Man, what happens if I bought the set for $200.00?  Or $175.00?  Which I did!  So there!

Posted
1 minute ago, Ed Mack said:

Well, if you want to be Mr. Smarty Pants Reality Man, what happens if I bought the set for $200.00?  Or $175.00?  Which I did!  So there!

Not everyone gets the same discount... you have to measure performance against RRP. Its only fair. ;)

  • Like 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Well, if you want to be Mr. Smarty Pants Reality Man, what happens if I bought the set for $200.00?  Or $175.00?  Which I did!  So there!

19% gains, that's what happens

  • Like 1
Posted
Not everyone gets the same discount... you have to measure performance against RRP. Its only fair. 


When does that start? I read all day long on here that I overpaid by like 99%.
  • Like 1
Posted

This site #'s or my calculations don't account for taxes, shipping, excessive tape use, packing peanuts, excess shipping weight from boogers, shipping to La La Land, Santa's Sleigh discounts or anything else.  There is one constant data point...What a set is worth after a period of time from MSRP.  To me, if a set is worth 50% more in less than a year...it is a winner.  

  • Like 4
Posted
12 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

This site #'s or my calculations don't account for taxes, shipping, excessive tape use, packing peanuts, excess shipping weight from boogers, shipping to La La Land, Santa's Sleigh discounts or anything else.  There is one constant data point...What a set is worth after a period of time from MSRP.  To me, if a set is worth 50% more in less than a year...it is a winner.  

We understand...

c21b57b52bbcd9f2cb384fffad1d54d6.jpg

  • Like 6
Posted
27 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

This site #'s or my calculations don't account for taxes, shipping, excessive tape use, packing peanuts, excess shipping weight from boogers, shipping to La La Land, Santa's Sleigh discounts or anything else.  There is one constant data point...What a set is worth after a period of time from MSRP.  To me, if a set is worth 50% more in less than a year...it is a winner.  

 

46359853.jpg

  • Like 2
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

1. Why are lego review sites opinions on-topic in the Sandcrawler thread but Alicia wasn't yesterday?

2. I do not like Jang. His voice reminds me of Bob Ross somehow. 

It's not... *le sigh* ... but I'm too lazy to move the posts somewhere today. :)

Posted

Hypothetical (I never learned to speak it!) question:

Would you trade a Sea Cow to get a Sandcrawler right now? 

It's like leasing a car and upgrading except that you ony have to pay shipping. Presumably, the royal you bought a Sea Cow at 225 based on the graph and can trade it in for a Sandcrawler. 

I'm not in this position but it's an interesting scenario and note that Canadians got Sea Cows at $200 Canadian if you were lucky so buying at 150US and selling at 450-500US was awesome.  Thanks resellers for that early Christmas present.

Posted
3 hours ago, GhostDad said:

There's 'hot' among resellers, and 'hot' among end users.  I get the sense that 75059 is neither at the moment, but tipping toward the former.  If few resellers buy it, it could do well based on scarcity alone.  On the other hand, if enough resellers think that way...  For now, I think the best course in Lego reselling is watchful waiting with the checkbook closed.  Watching the 'progress' of 2015 retirees, Sea Cow excepted, does not inspire confidence in the future.

If I were to sell my death stars, I would not flip them into this.  Not with how high the reseller count is growing by the day.  

 

10 minutes ago, redghostx said:

Hypothetical (I never learned to speak it!) question:

Would you trade a Sea Cow to get a Sandcrawler right now? 

It's like leasing a car and upgrading except that you ony have to pay shipping. Presumably, the royal you bought a Sea Cow at 225 based on the graph and can trade it in for a Sandcrawler. 

I'm not in this position but it's an interesting scenario and note that Canadians got Sea Cows at $200 Canadian if you were lucky so buying at 150US and selling at 450-500US was awesome.  Thanks resellers for that early Christmas present.

No, I would do the opposite. 

Posted (edited)

just picked up another on amazon $299 msrp  - 2 left .   didn't realize my wife had built up $74 of rewards points on one of her visa's.  yoink.

i'll be glad i did this in 2019.  

Edited by cladner
  • Like 1
Posted
42 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

1. Why are lego review sites opinions on-topic in the Sandcrawler thread but Alicia wasn't yesterday?

2. I do not like Jang. His voice reminds me of Bob Ross somehow. 

I think many fear getting too relaxed and peeing themselves.

Posted
3 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

This site #'s or my calculations don't account for taxes, shipping, excessive tape use, packing peanuts, excess shipping weight from boogers, shipping to La La Land, Santa's Sleigh discounts or anything else.  There is one constant data point...What a set is worth after a period of time from MSRP.  To me, if a set is worth 50% more in less than a year...it is a winner.  

Well...  If you sell Sea Cow today on eBay for $375, then you lose conservatively $20 shipping + $40 eBay + PayPal fees, so you net $315.  If you bought from Target with RedCard or LEGO Shop at Home with VIP and paid no tax because you live in one of the handful of states without sales tax (no reseller exemptions anymore for Target, and good luck trying that with LEGO Shop at Home), you paid (rounding) $237 so earn $78 profit after 3/4 year or so.  That still beats everything else that retired last year (exclusives I mean; some non-exclusives like 75054 and 75055 did alright from an ROI standpoint).  $78 profit in that time period, on a 24x20x5 inch box, doesn't quite meet my personal profit standards for a set of that physical volume (the main limitation I face with Lego investing), but that's a subjective standard.  The bigger problem comes when you average Sea Cow with Tumbler, Red 5, Tower of Orthanc, and the sets like Pet Shop and Tower Bridge that flirted with retirement, changed their minds, and as a result have negative year-over-year ROI.  I'd buy Sandcrawlers today if I thought they were the next Sea Cows.  But what if they're actually the next ToO's, Red 5's, or worse?

  • Like 1
Posted (edited)

The sandcrawler is also a hefty set of 10 pounds, minus the packaging materials, and the box size is the same as the death star.  The shipping on that beast will be more than most other exclusives.  

Also, the Sea Cow last year had about 45 sellers when it finally went out of stock.  That's creeped up to about 60 now, but the Sandcrawler has about 90 out of the gates, and there's going to easily be 150 to 200 when if it goes in December.  That will set it up for a long slow crawl.  It's going to take a minimum of more than a year, to perhaps two for the Red 5 to go under 100 sellers, and it's been hovering in the 180's on amazon for a while now and the price has fluctuated between 270 and 300 dollars. The sandcrawler will sell even slower, so i'm not sure it's a given to be any sort of winner.   I think the Red 5 will take about 2 years to see 2x, and the Sandcrawler will take much much longer than that at those numbers.

It's easy to buy.. .anyone can buy 5 to 10 if they have the money or means.  It's much harder to resist that temptation though.  

Edited by fossilrock
  • Like 2
Posted
13 minutes ago, GhostDad said:

Well...  If you sell Sea Cow today on eBay for $375, then you lose conservatively $20 shipping + $40 eBay + PayPal fees, so you net $315.  If you bought from Target with RedCard or LEGO Shop at Home with VIP and paid no tax because you live in one of the handful of states without sales tax (no reseller exemptions anymore for Target, and good luck trying that with LEGO Shop at Home), you paid (rounding) $237 so earn $78 profit after 3/4 year or so.  That still beats everything else that retired last year (exclusives I mean; some non-exclusives like 75054 and 75055 did alright from an ROI standpoint).  $78 profit in that time period, on a 24x20x5 inch box, doesn't quite meet my personal profit standards for a set of that physical volume (the main limitation I face with Lego investing), but that's a subjective standard.  The bigger problem comes when you average Sea Cow with Tumbler, Red 5, Tower of Orthanc, and the sets like Pet Shop and Tower Bridge that flirted with retirement, changed their minds, and as a result have negative year-over-year ROI.  I'd buy Sandcrawlers today if I thought they were the next Sea Cows.  But what if they're actually the next ToO's, Red 5's, or worse?

Image result for getting pencil whipped

Posted
51 minutes ago, freakchem said:

Awesome! I knew SAH will screw us again!

Who screws who? We screw ourselves. The more we buy, the more Lego makes because of magic word/rumor, "retiring".

  • Like 2
Posted (edited)

I expect this one to do the dance for at least a couple more months. As there will likely not be heavy discounts in Europe, I just bought me some at a trustworthy bricklink seller for about 15% off. I have free storage where I live, so I can sit on these for a while. 

With current big data analytics, I have the expectation that the Lego Marketing department has gotten us down as a target group pretty well. For some they will do the dance, some never retire and some retire unexpected (probably due to sudden manufacturing priority changes). I think the lego planning for manufacturing is very complex, so I don't think a final sales burst will get them to immediately create extra ones. They earn the hard cash on kids picking up millions of $20 sets across the world and (grand)parents buying millions of $60-$100 sets. The AFOL/+$100 market is small time compared to that and probably of low priority. 

But then again, it's all guesswork. :D (grabbing popcorn)

Edited by Legojona
Spelling mistake
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