75059 - UCS: Sandcrawler

[fossilrock]

57 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

Maybe Lego felt guilty and put the axe on the sandcrawler as compensation for their reselling customers?

Nah.. they are a business, and don't have to operate with any sort of compassion for resellers.

-----------

Regardless, I don't see exclusives as the be-all end-all anymore.  In fact, when you start to just look at it as a dollar for dollar investment, and let the glitter and glitz of the set itself not make an influence, these "blue chips" are not as good as they are cracked up to be.  I know I differer from the "buy 50 of ANY exclusive, and you won't regret it" crowd, but i'm not playing in that band..  

I still think those that took advantage of the walmart clearance event this july (or buy low on amazon, target, TRU etc), that had many decent Star Wars sets on clearance, that dollar for dollar, those sets will more than likely make one more money than buying a sandcrawler around RRP right now through walmart. So, I refuse to get caught up in to the cult of buying, when I think this through.

I know that last year, for every 2 AT-AT's I purchased at a discount around 90.00 (some I got less), they are doing better than every Red 5 that I purchased around RRP.  I dont even want to talk about the death star, which also retired.  Let's toss that one out..

 The mid to large size sets like AT-AT's, ISD's, and Cantinas were the better deal than any exclusive.  Already the AT-AT's can be sold for almost 2.5x what one could have bought in at during those clearance events.  The Red5 is not even at 1.5x.  So, let's say someone bought 10 or more AT-AT's last year around 90.00, and also bought 5 Red 5's.  An almost equal investment in dollar for dollar amount.  Well, already, it might take until next year, before the Red5 might finally hit the 2x mark.  But by then, if that person played the game right, they already cashed out on all the at-ats at 2.5x of the original investment, reinvested it in IST's (or other sets of that size), and cashed out on those at 2.5x too next season when the Red5 finally starts to go around 2x.   In the end, they can turn a 1000.00 investment in 10 AT-AT's into 1500.00 straight profit within a year, and if one reinvests that straight into this year's clearance of IST's (at 49), Kylo's ship (49), FO Transporter (40.00), Resistence Transporter (35), and sells that stock out around 2.5x (which it should be around next year at those buy-in prices), they will be sitting on 3750.00 profit (granted, i'm not counting fees, and shipping into this) within a 2 year cycle.  By then, theyll finally see the red5 at 2x (if we are lucky), and be sitting at 1000.00 profit if they were to blow out all 5 of theirs.  So, in my opinion the sweet spot is no longer exclusives.  It's other sets.  So, last year, if someone strictly bought 2 at-at's to 1 red 5, they would be doing better off. And if they reinvest it wisely the next year, they could hit it again.

While, I don't think the Sandcrawler will have any problem eventually selling at 750,  I think it will take some time to get there.   While I always hear the "buy 50 of these and you won't regret it".  I still think the better bet will be the mid to large size sets that people only occasionally think about, but could be purchased at clearance, or at much cheaper costs.  

I've decided to pass on any more crawlers.  It is a GREAT set.  By far the best freaking star wars build i've done.  But, I think the better bets are other star wars sets that one could have landed at a clearance discount, when I detach myself from the AFOL crazed builder and look at it strictly in terms of investment.



 

Edited August 24, 2016 by fossilrock

[labfreak7]

Ok, maybe in still a noob, and don't know enough about Lego investing, but why does everyone think this will be such a hit? It is a remake of 10144 correct? That set retailed for 139.99 in 2005, and can be purchased on eBay new for a little over $200. The reissue can be bought for a little over msrp on eBay as well. I have been wrong before, but I'm not sure this will ever even double in value.

[JRandall]

3 minutes ago, labfreak7 said:

Ok, maybe in still a noob, and don't know enough about Lego investing, but why does everyone think this will be such a hit? It is a remake of 10144 correct? That set retailed for 139.99 in 2005, and can be purchased on eBay new for a little over $200. The reissue can be bought for a little over msrp on eBay as well. I have been wrong before, but I'm not sure this will ever even double in value.

It won't, it's just thousands of dollars that are being funneled from getting rid of DS stock and thrown into the rumor that this Sandcrawler monstrosity will retire this year and dreams of Sea Cow money.  If it does, the recent stock of a few thousand has been bought up in the last 2 days, only to be resold to future people who join this site.  The Sandcrawler set didn't become 10X popular overnight so that Target/Amazon/WM would sellout, it's money being funneled into that on rumors and talk here on BP, that's how powerful this site has become. I think the TH bump was the best thing that ever happened to Lego sales in the last several years, like a lucky joe who hits the slots his first few day of playing.  That rush can funnel a lifetime of speculating.

Edited August 24, 2016 by JRandall

[Ed Mack]

Nah.. they are a business, and don't have to operate with any sort of compassion for resellers.

-----------

Regardless, I don't see exclusives as the be-all end-all anymore.  In fact, when you start to just look at it as a dollar for dollar investment, and let the glitter and glitz of the set itself not make an influence, these "blue chips" are not as good as they are cracked up to be.  I know I differer from the "buy 50 of ANY exclusive, and you won't regret it" crowd, but i'm not playing in that band..  

I still think those that took advantage of the walmart clearance event this july (or buy low on amazon, target, TRU etc), that had many decent Star Wars sets on clearance, that dollar for dollar, those sets will more than likely make one more money than buying a sandcrawler around RRP right now through walmart. So, I refuse to get caught up in to the cult of buying, when I think this through.

I know that last year, for every 2 AT-AT's I purchased at a discount around 90.00 (some I got less), they are doing better than every Red 5 that I purchased around RRP.  I dont even want to talk about the death star, which also retired.  Let's toss that one out..

 The mid to large size sets like AT-AT's, ISD's, and Cantinas were the better deal than any exclusive.  Already the AT-AT's can be sold for almost 2.5x what one could have bought in at during those clearance events.  The Red5 is not even at 1.5x.  So, let's say someone bought 10 or more AT-AT's last year around 90.00, and also bought 5 Red 5's.  An almost equal investment in dollar for dollar amount.  Well, already, it might take until next year, before the Red5 might finally hit the 2x mark.  But by then, if that person played the game right, they already cashed out on all the at-ats at 2.5x of the original investment, reinvested it in IST's (or other sets of that size), and cashed out on those at 2.5x too next season when the Red5 finally starts to go around 2x.   In the end, they can turn a 100.00 investment into 1500.00 straight profit within a year, and if one reinvests that straight into the next year's clearance, and sells that stock out around 2.5x, they will be sitting on 3750.00 profit (granted, i'm not counting fees, and shipping into this) the following year.  By then, theyll finally sell off their red5 at 2x, and be sitting at 1000.00 profit.  So, in my opinion the sweet spot is no longer exclusives.  It's other sets. 

While, I don't think the Sandcrawler will have any problem eventually selling at 750,  I think it will take some time to get there.   While I always hear the "buy 50 of these and you won't regret it".  I still think the better bet will be the mid to large size sets that people only occasionally think about, but could be purchased at clearance, or at much cheaper costs.  

I've decided to pass on any more crawlers.  It is a GREAT set.  By far the best freaking star wars build i've done.  But, I think the better bets are other star wars sets that one could have landed at a clearance discount, when I detach myself from the AFOL crazed builder and look at it strictly in terms of investment.



 

I agree. There are many small and mid sized sets that ARE discounted that make them very attractive choices. I don't think people are dismissing those choices. But when a major set is possibly on the brink of extinction, you know the chaos that occurs.

[BrickLegacy]

I agree with a lot of what you said but the AT-AT is one of the most popular and iconic vehicle in the Star Wars Universe and was helped by a Battlefront boost.  It was a gift from the LEGO gods.  It was an olive branch before they invaded us with a Trojan Horse in the shape of a giant cheese slope.

Bottom line: the AT-AT was an easy choice.  The choices get harder from here on out.

 

[Huskers1236]

9 minutes ago, labfreak7 said:

Ok, maybe in still a noob, and don't know enough about Lego investing, but why does everyone think this will be such a hit? It is a remake of 10144 correct? That set retailed for 139.99 in 2005, and can be purchased on eBay new for a little over $200. The reissue can be bought for a little over msrp on eBay as well. I have been wrong before, but I'm not sure this will ever even double in value.

75059 is way better than 10144 in about every regard.  More detailed, larger, more structurally sound, updated figures.   The only thing I like about 10144 better is the brick construction that led to the smooth sides vs. the plate construction that gives you all the studs.  That said, I only have my built one and one more sealed as I have a hard time seeing people spend $600+ on this and that's where I'd need to be to sell comfortably.  If a guy got a nice buy in, it's a much easier pill to swallow. 

[fossilrock]

31 minutes ago, BrickLegacy said:

I agree with a lot of what you said but the AT-AT is one of the most popular and iconic vehicle in the Star Wars Universe and was helped by a Battlefront boost.  It was a gift from the LEGO gods.  It was an olive branch before they invaded us with a Trojan Horse in the shape of a giant cheese slope.

Bottom line: the AT-AT was an easy choice.  The choices get harder from here on out.

You can still double your money on Cantinas at last year clearance prices, and the ISD's are looking like they will join the At-Ats this holiday season at the 2.5x camp, especially when many here bought them in the mid 90s, from what I recall. 

But, I think if you took that money and bought IST's at 49.00, Kylo's Shuttles for 59, or FO transporters at 40... Next holiday season when Episode 8 comes out...in order to hit that same rate, we will need to see 150.00 price point for the IST, and 120.00 for the FO Transporter (which has phasma), and 160 for Kylo's ship.  If they hit that, then buying at those discounted prices in my opinion were the best ways to equal what the AT-AT's have done so far.  But, i'd be shocked to see the Sandcrawler be the AT-AT of this year.  I just don't see it happening.  There's very few sets I think go 2x in a year, and even fewer at RRP prices.

As for next year?  I agree, we may not see a 50% clearance event.  Or there maybe a new curveball thrown our way all together.  It's just snagging those sets at clearance in my opinion was the only way to go this year.  I don't think buying exclusives at RRP is as safe a bet.  Long term, then yeah, I could see the Sandcrawler eventually sitting over a 1000.00 and slowly moving as people decide they want one.  I guess, thats what i'll wait for with the Sandcrawler, but I don't want more than a few because I think it's just a better move to put the dollar to dollar investment in the middle to upper range non-exclusives... over exclusives.

---- 

Just looked up some sets.  Droid Gunships are going for about 2x over their clearance price.  AT-AP's about 2x, as well.  GGWB is now at 3x+  and if you found him at the 12.00 walmart clearance, that set is at 4x. Snowspeeders are at 2x.  All the battle packs which I found many for 7.00 clearance are now at almost 3x. 

Red5 - 1.5x.  Death Star 1.2x (and dropping)

The better bets last year were still the mid range sets ISD's, Cantinas, and AT-AT's.  I think the same thing plays out next year.

Edited August 24, 2016 by fossilrock

[Phil B]

2 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

Looks like there is still hope in the LEGO investing/reselling world. Funny how things change so rapidly. The 75159 could have destroyed the LEGO investing world and the 75059 might save it.

And 75159-75059 = 100, exactly the price of that one cheese slope! Advanced numerology my friends!

[weitzel78]

I'm not convinced it's done. There should be a lot more opportunities to get these. That being said, I had opened and built the one I was holding, so I used some of my 10188 DS money to pickup two sandcrawlers today. I agree this set is not going to provide a better percentage return than the right clearance sets - but I can only get a limited supply of those. This is a relatively low risk way to participate in some upside if it's actually done this year.

The pros of this set are that it will likely not be remade as a UCS set in the near future. The downside is that it will probably not be as sought after as some of the more famous Star Wars vehicles.

I can see why TLG would want to ritire the Sandcrawler- its price per peice is better than the current SW sets (it would be $350 if released in 2016), the box does not say Disney, and it probably a poor seller.

Edited August 24, 2016 by weitzel78

[Martae54]

ANTI HOARDING FACT: 10188 NEVER went below 50 available NEW sets for sale on eBay. Currently there are ONLY 50 75059 for sale on EBay. Just the facts...

[weitzel78]

16 minutes ago, Martae54 said:

ANTI HOARDING FACT: 10188 NEVER went below 50 available NEW sets for sale on eBay. Currently there are ONLY 50 75059 for sale on EBay. Just the facts...

Not sure I follow, the 10188 was a better seller and was on the market 8 years, so it should have more listings than the SC. The hoarding effect should not be seen currently on eBay, as people are hoarding to sell in the future.

[Martae54]

22 minutes ago, weitzel78 said:

Not sure I follow, the 10188 was a better seller and was on the market 8 years, so it should have more listings than the SC. The hoarding effect should not be seen currently on eBay, as people are hoarding to sell in the future.

I mean while each set was still available .. Not POST retirement.. 

[waddamon]

I got 12 today, plus my other 4, I'm content.  Not doing thirty after DS debacle .

Sold out on Lego now, so Walmart is it 

[Deanfjr]

They were available at target this morning for a bit

Edited August 24, 2016 by Deanfjr

[Lego Head Steven]

I just snaffled a couple from UK Lego Shop.

Might snaffle a couple more under the wife radar....

[Deanfjr]

I am just going to buy one of these instead... in the memory of the UCS SC:

heck maybe you guys should buy $300.00 worth or these and flip down long term instead of each SC

 

 

Edited August 24, 2016 by Deanfjr

[Sprocket77]

18 minutes ago, Lego Head Steven said:

Might snaffle a couple more under the wife radar....
 

Ah the wife radar, the most accurate form of radar ever invented.  Even a stealth bomber wouldn't get past it.

[weitzel78]

11 hours ago, Deanfjr said:

I am just going to buy one of these instead... in the memory of the UCS SC:

heck maybe you guys should buy $300.00 worth or these and flip down long term instead of each SC

It's a great set. Have one next to my SC. 30!, sadly the old ones are only going for $30-40 as all these years later.

[Miami Bomb Squad]

I Ain't buying SSS******TTT!!!!
With all the aggregate negative events from Lego, coupled with Over-saturation of Sellers, I'm bottling up my Greedy-Ass impulse for once.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this is a Dust Collector, I have 10.
This game has taking a turn or its at the fork, so I'm not going to sink anymore capital until i see greener Pastures ahead. 
Good Luck and may the force be with you.

[Brian Briggs]

39 minutes ago, weitzel78 said:

It's a great set. Have one next to my SC. 30!, sadly the old ones are only going for $30-40 as all these years later.

Well, 75136 contains two Jawas though.

[Ciglione]

Here you go.

 

[weitzel78]

3 minutes ago, Brian Briggs said:

Well, 75136 contains two Jawas though.

Yeah, it would make a great pair to sell with the SC. Might pick some up next year.

[Martae54]

The alternate build for this one is really quite good. Check it out on youtube. (Alternate build 75136)

11 hours ago, Deanfjr said:

 

 

[dcdfan]

The alternate build for this one is really quite good. Check it out on youtube. (Alternate build 75136)

 

[Deanfjr]

back call to check @ SAH 

I caved in and ordered 1, I figured I didn't want to not have one.... they said I got the last one... wha ha ha ha

then it went back to Sold Out, must be true! now go Retire!

Edited August 24, 2016 by Deanfjr