10224 - Town Hall

[Darth_Raichu]

And this is why the thread should be renamed. Too much useful information and off topicness.

I suggest "Town Hall and other cryptic messages from beloved site owner (and their possible interpretations by others)" :)

[glucapg]

I suggest "Town Hall and other cryptic messages from beloved site owner (and their possible interpretations by others)"

We need Nostradamus

Sent from my GT-I9000 using Brickpicker mobile app

[Marzipan]

For me the point to consider is if the set is really  in demand from regular buyers or not. If this set is selling out now due to reseller panic rather than genuine demand then all the guys that bought multiples  at MSRP or above to resell may have just created a bubble.

 

I know of at least two places who have had the same number in stock at MSRP for a while now and I want to see some of them shift before and if I make a move as I don

Edited November 6, 2014 by Marzipan

[Locutus001]

That is a very valid point.  I am new to all of this but I can't help but be a little more bearish on the long-term return on investments projection of sets that are being hoarded in the thousands even if they are highly reviewed online. 

 

It's all good while those sets remain in storage but is the regular demand for them (that isn't even strong enough to cause them to sell out without the massive flood of resellers buying stock the second it appears) enough to make all the hassle of shipping/storing/tied up capital and copious amounts of time spent on brickpicker worth it?

 

I think it is safe to say that lego will continue to come out with amazing, and possibly better and better sets (as their designers grow in talent/experience) that will continue to be priced at a premium and marketed towards afol.  How many people new to lego will really be completionists when it comes to having all the modulars, uc sw sets etc., at the cost of paying significantly above retail? 

 

I'm guessing it could be a LOT fewer than the thousands if not tens of thousands of these eol sets being hoarded. 

You're right.

LEGO Investment is a gamble.

 

Still it all depends.

For example a set like GE will be massively hoared (while TH won't be hoarded that much).

You'd need to study amazon and ebay to see how many sets are sold yearly but taking a wild guess I'd say quite a few.

Some resellers are happy with a quick flip and 20$ while others will wait till they see at least 100$.

Not every set in every quantity will be a winner.

Do people still buy the Black Pearl or an UCS AT-AT? Yes. Will they continue? Probably yes since both sets are pretty awesome and as well well known.

Are people still buying CC or GG? Yes.

 

Also you should take into consideration that people in other countries become more wealthy and new markets might open for resellers, e.***. China.

[asharerin]

How many people new to lego will really be completionists when it comes to having all the modulars, uc sw sets etc., at the cost of paying significantly above retail? 

 

I'm guessing it could be a LOT fewer than the thousands if not tens of thousands of these eol sets being hoarded. 

 

Listen to the market. Sometimes it will show you a demand you never anticipated.

[buidee]

There are people who have money to spend whether in US or other countries like China.  There may be someone who will buy a MSIB Market Street to complete a modular set or a 10030 Imperial Star Destroyer to complete an UCS Star Wars set and there will probably be someone else who missed out on Town Hall who will pay $400 or more in the future. 

[Marzipan]

There are people who have money to spend whether in US or other countries like China.  There may be someone who will buy a MSIB Market Street to complete a modular set or a 10030 Imperial Star Destroyer to complete an UCS Star Wars set and there will probably be someone else who missed out on Town Hall who will pay $400 or more in the future. 

Quite true...but how many.  Hundreds?  Thousands?  Tens of thousands?

 

I would also assume that there are many more hundreds (if not thousands) of new lego investors today than there were back when Market Street was discontinued and more every day.  The daily new influx of lego investors as evidenced by 300 new members to this site in 7 days, could certainly make for a very different investment outcome 5 years from now vs. 5 years ago. 

Edited November 6, 2014 by Marzipan

[buidee]

Some of us investors are also collectors.  I was referrng to myself about the Market Street and 10030.  Some buy and sell as their business, others like me buy and sell to fund our collections

[Marzipan]

Some of us investors are also collectors.  I was referrng to myself about the Market Street and 10030.  Some buy and sell as their business, others like me buy and sell to fund our collections

This is my favorite way to collect too!  I always fund my toy collections with toys! 

[Ed Mack]

That is a very valid point.  I am new to all of this but I can't help but be a little more bearish on the long-term return on investments projection of sets that are being hoarded in the thousands even if they are highly reviewed online. 

 

It's all good while those sets remain in storage but is the regular demand for them (that isn't even strong enough to cause them to sell out without the massive flood of resellers buying stock the second it appears) enough to make all the hassle of shipping/storing/tied up capital and copious amounts of time spent on brickpicker worth it?

 

I think it is safe to say that lego will continue to come out with amazing, and possibly better and better sets (as their designers grow in talent/experience) that will continue to be priced at a premium and marketed towards afol.  How many people new to lego will really be completionists when it comes to having all the modulars, uc sw sets etc., at the cost of paying significantly above retail? 

 

I'm guessing it could be a LOT fewer than the thousands if not tens of thousands of these eol sets being hoarded. 

How about if LEGO reverses course and decides to cater to children almost exclusively?  What happens if LEGO stops producing these upscale sets for AFOLS?  What's replacing the multitude of AFOL sets retiring this year and early next year?  How valuable will these current AFOL sets become?

[mscheaf]

How about if LEGO reverses course and decides to cater to children almost exclusively?  What happens if LEGO stops producing these upscale sets for AFOLS?  What's replacing the multitude of AFOL sets retiring this year and early next year?  How valuable will these current AFOL sets become?

 

Well that would suck. Catering to kids, we would all have to become quick flipping scum.

[trekgate502]

How about if LEGO reverses course and decides to cater to children almost exclusively?  What happens if LEGO stops producing these upscale sets for AFOLS?  What's replacing the multitude of AFOL sets retiring this year and early next year?  How valuable will these current AFOL sets become?

Well I read this post in email reading the bottom and then though who wrote this, I cannot see this happening I wonder what Ed would say about this post.

Then I read the top. If this happened it would point to my earlier comments that the entire modular line is over plus some.

But what about the detective agency, the UCS slave I, the UCS MF that may be coming, I guess this would mirror your statement of those who chose to invest wisely in certain sets will short term benefit but that can only last so long for so many based on their inventory.

I hope this is not happening.

Did you just drop a bomb on us?

[Ed Mack]

Well I read this post in email reading the bottom and then though who wrote this, I cannot see this happening I wonder what Ed would say about this post.

Then I read the top. If this happened it would point to my earlier comments that the entire modular line is over plus some.

But what about the detective agency, the UCS slave I, the UCS MF that may be coming, I guess this would mirror your statement of those who chose to invest wisely in certain sets will short term benefit but that can only last so long for so many based on their inventory.

I hope this is not happening.

Did you just drop a bomb on us?

Take a look at the potential large sets that have recently retired or will be retiring within the next 6 months or so and look at what is coming.  It seems sort of lopsided.  Just making an observation that a scaling back of exclusives is a possibility.

[Marzipan]

How about if LEGO reverses course and decides to cater to children almost exclusively?  What happens if LEGO stops producing these upscale sets for AFOLS?  What's replacing the multitude of AFOL sets retiring this year and early next year?  How valuable will these current AFOL sets become?

I'd be shocked if that were the case, given that they have been aggressively hitting the adult market and have even structured their website in such a way that each age group will find plenty of great sets targeted towards them.  I would confidently guess that the AFOL sets currently being retired will just allow TLG to roll out the next array of AFOL sets that will be even more dazzling than the last (wouldn't that be nice!!)

Edited November 7, 2014 by Marzipan

[trekgate502]

OIC

I agree it is a massive reduction, I was concerned it was a complete elimination of AFOL sets over time,

More than investing I would be really sad if that ever happened, this is my families hobby and we build all size sets.

One of the funniest was putting together my sons Death Star with him together over two weeks.

He did as much as me and we had a blast.

[holleman67]

I think it's possible but to end all sets geared towards afol's would be losing tons of business. I think they would be nuts, who else is going to pay $200 plus for a set? Why would they focus so much on marketing from adolescence to adulthood. They have people hooked from a young age. It's a brand people recognize and go back to all of the time.

Reminds me of Harley Davidson's marketing in the early 1900's. They sold bicycles to kids to get used to the idea of "riding a Harley" and the brand recognition that comes with the product. To kill the adult portion of Lego would be extreme.

[Ed Mack]

I'd be shocked if that were the case, given that they have been aggressively hitting the adult market and have even structured their website in such a way that each age group will find plenty of great sets targeted towards them:  from tot to retired tinkerer.  I would confidently guess that the AFOL sets currently being retired will just allow TLG to roll out the next array of AFOL sets that will be even more dazzling than the last (wouldn't that be nice!!)

You might think that is the case.  None of us know what sells the best.  Years ago, LEGO had very few "AFOL sets" in relation to their overall production line.  The money might be in the smaller to mid sized sets geared towards children.

[Ed Mack]

I think it's possible but to end all sets geared towards afol's would be losing tons of business. I think they would be nuts, who else is going to pay $200 plus for a set? Why would they focus so much on marketing from adolescence to adulthood. They have people hooked from a young age. It's a brand people recognize and go back to all of the time.

Reminds me of Harley Davidson's marketing in the early 1900's. They sold bicycles to kids to get used to the idea of "riding a Harley" and the brand recognition that comes with the product. To kill the adult portion of Lego would be extreme.

I'm not saying kill it, just trim it.  

[holleman67]

I'm not saying kill it, just trim it.

I know. I was referring to both you and trek in one post. A trim is very plausible with 10 sets on deaths door and a few known exclusives for next year.

[LegoManiacc]

I'm not saying kill it, just trim it.  

 

Makes sense if they need to put their resources into kids' sets until production capacities are upped.

[Marzipan]

I think it's possible but to end all sets geared towards afol's would be losing tons of business. I think they would be nuts, who else is going to pay $200 plus for a set? Why would they focus so much on marketing from adolescence to adulthood. They have people hooked from a young age. It's a brand people recognize and go back to all of the time.

Reminds me of Harley Davidson's marketing in the early 1900's. They sold bicycles to kids to get used to the idea of "riding a Harley" and the brand recognition that comes with the product. To kill the adult portion of Lego would be extremely

If lego was adopting a strategy oriented away from afol's, it doesn't make any sense for them to spend the time evaluating the creative submissions that achieve 10k support or more on the lego ideas site.  While there is no guarantee that a popular design will make it as commercially sold sets, the fact that there are a ton of incredibly detailed, gorgeous pieces such as assault on Wayne manor to name one https://ideas.lego.com/projects/50007 and many more cropping up all the time convinces me that lego is well aware of their adult market and catering to the AFOLs.

Edited November 7, 2014 by Marzipan

[trekgate502]

I think they would sell a ton more small to medium sets in China and other growing markets than the large ones.

By going back to their roots from what Ed indicates of child's toys (to some degree) I would think it could drive sales & profit margins substantially higher.

 

 

I cannot tell you how many countless times I go into Target and see kids in the Lego isle begging their parents even for the $100-$150 sets and it does not happen.

 

The smaller ones get bought all the time.

[ravenb99]

Its been inevitable for awhile now to trim some of these larger exclusives.  The main story I hear repeatedly is "there is not enough room for all the sets" and "normally this would of been gone a long time ago".  A lot of these sets take up so much space and don't always fit with the theme that was being displayed (ToO a great example).  That one looked the most out of place of all of them when you went into a store.  They also take up about 3 to 5 smaller sets that might move faster in the $20-50 range.  

 

Could be why we've seen some sets go "online" only in some areas (Maersk, Horizon).  Big sets that might not appeal to everyone enough to warrant shelf space in the store and don't really go with anything.

 

Even R2 has been mentioned on that list of sets that doesn't move well in store.  Everyone says its cool and likes it but its not translating to sales.  Was recently told DS outsells R2 even with the huge price difference.

 

SC was always a full shelf or 2 and did not appear to move well at the store level until it was on its way out.  Even then I was able to get 10 in store over a period of 3 weeks as they still hadn't sold.

 

If you look at TH, R2D2, ToO and SC none of them sold particularly well in store and that also was reflected on those 4 on ebay sales leading up to this point of being snatched up  (all 4 were always below retail for the most part in auction format)

[Ed Mack]

If lego was adopting a strategy oriented away from afol's, it doesn't make any sense for them to spend the time evaluating the creative submissions that achieve 10k support or more on the lego ideas site. While there is no guarantee that a popular design will make it as commercially sold sets, the fact that there are a ton of incredibly detailed, gorgeous pieces such as assault on Wayne manor to name one https://ideas.lego.com/projects/50007 and many more cropping up all the time convinces me that lego is well aware of their adult market and catering to the AFOLs.

Look at the size of the current and past CUUSOO and Ideas sets.

[GhostDad]

Lego is not going to sell anything in China, until they're ready to sell minifigs for $.50 each and compete with the counterfeiters.  TLG is about as innocent and clueless as UniKitty.  I keep waiting (and hoping) for them to suddenly morph into AngryKitty and go all KraGl on the Chinese...